Race 1A Australia (Randwick) Friday, January 20, 2017. AUSTRALIAN FIRE HOSE PLATE ($100K) 8:40pm EST (7:40pm CST, 5:40pm PST). W, P, S, Ex, Qu, Tri, Super 2yo OPEN class. 5 furlongs, Apprentices Can Claim. Picks 6-11-2.
#6 Ultramarine (7/1 ML) looked OK in his recent trial and I think he has some early tactical speed and the ability to finish a bit, which may be useful in this spot. Usually when Blake Shinn rides for the Snowdens they are trying to win “bigly.” A caveat – if the Snowdens are actually “live” this horse will be 4/1 or lower odds at post time. #11 Sweet Bouquet (13/1 ML) has a lot of early speed and drew the rail, so I think we found our early race leader. By “sneaky good” sire Dream Ahead (he was Frankel’s main competition in England when they raced against each other), this filly could be a really nice surprise package at double figure odds. #2 Eden Rock (5/2 ML favorite) can close from farther than mid-pack and it was obvious that they were not trying to win their latest trial. I will use this one in the exotics.
Race 1B Australia (Moonee Valley) Friday, January 20, 2017. WILLIAM HILL (BM78) ($80K) 9:00pm EST (8:00pm CST, 6:00pm PST) W, P, S, Ex, Qu, Tri, Super 3yo BM78. 6 furlongs, Apprentices Can Claim. Picks 4-5-1.
This is a handicap, which means the more successful horses have to carry more weight. The horses to bet on are the horses that have shown some ability but have yet to be “heavily weighted.” #4 Awake In Grinzing (7/1 ML) won its first race nicely, then was put in stakes races and high level handicaps, running OK speed figures but not finishing well. Takes 2 steps down the class ladder to a BM 78 handicap, is back to the 6 furlong winning distance, and gets 7 pounds from the top weight, #1 Invincible AL. #5 Malaise (4/1 ML) is taking two or three jumps UP from Maiden, a level that he cleared in his second career start for O’shea and Godolphin. Runs here off two trials and a nearly 5-month break. Usually the Godolphinites don’t waste a race. I think Malaise will be ready. #1 Invincible Al (9/2 ML) has put together four good races in a row with decent speed figures and is a fairly consistent horse (9-2-2-2). However, he does not seem like a horse with much improvement in him. I doubt he will beat both Awake In Grinzing and Malaise.