Friday Night Australian Racing, 12/3/2016

Race 1A Australia (Rosehill) Friday, December 2, 2016.  SCHWEPPES PLATE ($100K) 8:40pm EST 7:40pm CST 5:40pm PST W, P, S, Ex, Qu, Tri 2yo OPEN.  5 1/2 furlongs.  Apprentices Can Claim.  Picks 4-5

#4 TREKKING (2/1 ML) is running for the Godolphin/O’Shea machine and put in a big effort in his trial, demonstrating a nice turn of foot in the Rosehill stretch.  His best wins this.  #5 All Too Ready (6/1 ML) is bred to be a cracking 2yo runner and he has excellent early speed, winning his trial very easily.  He will probably have the lead a few furlongs out.

 

Race 2A Australia (Rosehill) Friday, December 2, 2016.  ATC MEMBERSHIP (BM69) ($100K) 9:20pm EST 8:20pm CST 6:20pm PST W, P, S, Ex, Qu, Tri, Super 3yo BM69.   6 f Apprentices Can Claim.  Picks 8-4-3

#8 MONTREAL (7/1) was a strong debut winner and figures to be better second out, even with the class rise.  #4 Calanda (3/1 ML) is also lightly raced and gets Blake Shinn in the irons for Team Snowden.  I like both of these horses a lot.  #3 Brulee (9/1) ran a career top speed figure at Flemington in her last race and ships into Sydney.  I’m not sure she can repeat that big effort.

Graded Stakes Preview, Saturday, 12/3/2016

Older Mares Line Up In The One Mile Go For Wand Stakes!

Aqueduct Race 8 (Post 3:43 PM Eastern), The Go For Wand Stakes (Grade 3), 1 Mile

It is probably worth noting that at Aqueduct one mile races are run out of a chute and are 1 TURN on the main track.

Class:  Wonder Gal has won $683,000 in 12 fast track starts

Expected Pace:  The entire field consists of “early/presser types” that usually sit two or three lengths off the pace.  Wonder Gal, at times, has put in very high pace figures and it may be the best strategy to put her on the lead on Saturday.  Burn Control has put in good early speed fractions in her last two Parx allowance races.

Consistency:  Bar of Gold is 5 for 5 wins on a wet track and 0 for 9 wins on a fast track.  The weather is expected to be partly cloudy in Queens, NY, for the next few days, so I would assume a fast track.

BetPTC.com Selections (fast track):

1st:  #5 Highway Star (8/1)   2nd:  #4 Wonder Gal (9/5)   3rd:  #7 High Ridge Road (6/1)

I am going with HIGHWAY STAR because this filly has not done much wrong and this group of horses looks like it needs a new leader.  Wonder Gal is the horse to beat but she has yet to win at the mile distance (2-0-1-1) and 9/5 seems like way too short a price to take in this evenly matched field.  High Ridge Road was in top form in April and May at Laurel, then disappeared entirely after the Lady’s Secret Stakes at Monmouth in early July.  If she improves off her spring/summer numbers she is a win candidate on Saturday.

 

Older Mares Line Up In Bayakoa Stakes!

Del Mar Race 6 (Post 6:00 PM Eastern), The Bayakoa Stakes (Grade 2), 1 Mile and 1/16th

Class:  Vale Dori has won $327,000 in 8 fast track starts

Expected Pace:  Gloryzapper takes this field as far as she can.

Consistency:  Vale Dori has hit the board in one of her every North American starts (4-2-1-1).

BetPTC.com Selections (fast track):

1st:  #3 Gloryzapper (3/1)   2nd:  #5 Vale Dori (7/5)   3rd:  #6 Wild at Heart (5/1)

I see GLORYZAPPER making the lead and Vale Dori trying to run her down, with even a potential speed duel developing between these two horses.  Easy quinella.  Gloryzapper is 3 wins in 3 starts at Del Mar, including a neck win over Vale Dori on August 3rd, 2016.  Slight edge Gloryzapper?  Wild at Heart has some ability and will try to close late.

 

Three Year Olds Line Up In the Hollywood Derby!

Del Mar Race 7 (Post 6:30 PM Eastern), The Hollywood Derby (Grade 1), 1 Mile and 1/8th (turf)

Class:  Camelot Kitten has won nearly $964,000 in 10 fast track starts

Expected Pace:  Blackjackcat probably will lead, with Beach Patrol forcing the pace from the inside.

Consistency:  Camelot Kitten LOVES to finish in the exacta (10-5-3-0)

BetPTC.com Selections:

1st:  #8 Hayabusa One (6/1)   2nd:  #2 Camelot Kitten (7/2)   3rd:  #11 Annals of Time (6/1)

I am not quite sure what to make of HAYABUSA ONE, but in his last race at Keeneland he was stretching his legs out nicely out at the slightly longer mile and 3/16ths distance and he may well have a stamina advantage on this field.  Most of these horses really aren’t stayers.  Camelot Kitten is a tough customer that knows where the line is.  It is hard for me to throw him out.  Annals of Time ran very well in his first two starts and appears to have the most upside of the lightly-raced runners.  He’ll win a big race eventually.

 

BetPTC.com Horses to Watch – 11/27/16

Horses to Watch – Ed Meyer

The winter ovals are getting in gear and Turfway Park holds court on the Kentucky circuit for winter racing. – Don’t think the best racing is over as it’s just getting started for the long road back to spring. – Winter racing can offer up some of the incredible wagering opportunities for players who employ patience and follow the circuits. – Just think, there are only 160 days until the Kentucky Derby goes to post. That gives us plenty of time to build our bankroll. – Best of luck from your friends at BetPTC.com !

Churchill Downs

11/25/16

Race #1 – #4 – Sturdy Allen – 6f on the main

Belterra shipper under Ty Kennedy and they gave a perfect stalking trip only to be squeezed at the top of the lane. This may have been their undoing  and deserve a good look next time at the races.

Race #7 – #4 – Sky Wonder – 6 1/2f on the main

Corey Lanerie in the irons, and he had his mount in perfect striking position and fanned five wide into the stretch and showing good late kick.

Race #10 – #13 – Shelbyville – 1 1/16 on the turf

Javier Castellano in the saddle and he held close to the rail the entire trip. His filly looked in good shape and when the field swung a little wide at the top of the lane he guided his mount even closer to the rail. She hustled and looked solid, but her efforts and perfect ride came up a but empty down the lane. If she heads to Florida or New Orleans, keep track of her as she is getting ready for a top effort.

Fair Grounds

11/25/16

Race #2 – #6 – Lucy’s Miss Musket – 1 mile and 70 yards

She was bumped soundly at the start and recovered nicely. She took over at the 3/16th’s and came up a bit short to be a bridesmaid as a beaten favorite.

Race #5 – #4 – Nana Looch – 7 1/2f on the turf

Indy shipper was squeezed at the start and taken up. She settled under James Graham and mustered a late rally to get bested by a nose in the shadow of the wire as a beaten chalk.

Race #7 – #1 – Jus Kevin – 1 mile on the turf

David Flores in the irons, and he gave a super effort aboard his filly. He never left the golden rail and at the 1/8th pole he gave the cue and she responded gamely. This daughter of Mizzen Mast seemed to enjoy the course and is prime for a play back next time to the races.

Friday Night Australian Racing, 11/25/2016

Race 2A Australia (Rosehill) Friday, November 25, 2016.  GOLDNERS HORSE GOLDEN GIFT ($150K) 9:10pm EST (8:10pm CST, 6:10pm PST) W, P, S, Ex, Qu, Tri, Super 2yo OPEN.  5 1/2 furlongs. Apprentices Cannot Claim.  Picks 1-5-6

#1 Ispo Facto (7/1 ML) has a lot of factors in his favor.  He has good speed, should improve a few lengths in his second start, and moves inside to post one, which should help.  It was also a windy day when he made his first start and he never got “any cover.”  #5 Florid (3/1 ML) and #6 Korma (8/1 ML) both come from having just one single trial for the Godolphin/John O’Shea machine.  O’Shea doesn’t really try to win trials anymore, so it’s probably noteworthy both of these horses finished close to the winner and either could be “live.”

 

Race 3A Australia (Rosehill) Friday, November 25, 2016.  HQ INSURANCE (BM76) ($100K) 9:45pm EST (8:45pm CST, 6:45pm PST) W, P, S, Ex, Qu, Tri, Super, Pick 3 (3A, 4A, 5A) 3yo+ BM76.  1 and 1/8 miles. Apprentices Can Claim.  Picks 3-7

#3 Balmain Boy (3/1 M) is faster than these, and takes a significant drop in class from BM 85 to BM 76.  Appears fairly obvious even with the extra weight penalty leading to a 132 pound impost.  #7 Lipari (3/1 ML) is in good form and gets Brenton Avdulla for Chris Waller, and they win races together.  Gets 4 pounds from the top choice.

Graded Stakes Preview for Saturday, November 26th, 2016

Three Year Old Filly Routers Go For The Money in the Lucrative Comely Stakes!

Aqueduct Race 3 (post 12:50 Eastern), The Comely Stakes (Grade 3), 9 furlongs, 3yo Fillies

Class:  Lewis Bay has won over $755,000 in 9 starts.

Expected Pace:  Lewis Bay should be able to set a reasonable pace on or near the front end.

Consistency:  Unbridled Mo has won four of her five career starts, including her last four.

BetPTC.com selections

1st: #2 Lewis Bay (8/5)   2nd: #6 Unbridled Mo (2/1)   3rd: #7 Mo d’Amour (10/1)

LEWIS BAY has a great record at Aqueduct and fits very well with this group.  Unbridled Mo is in great form and appears the only logical threat to the top pick.  Mo d’Amour is a hard trier that should be able to finish behind the top two in third or fourth position.

 

Older Males “Throw it Down” in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile!!

Aqueduct Race 10 (post 4:20 Eastern), The Cigar Mile (Grade 1), 8 furlongs, 3up

Class:  Anchor Down has won over $719,000 in 16 starts.  Connect has won $950,000 in six starts in races mostly limited to three year olds.

Expected Pace:  Anchor Down should be able to set a 45-second-ish pace on or near the front end.  The only horse in the field that could press Anchor Down, Ocean Knight, is not a great finisher and I expect his connections to try to save as much energy as they can for the stretch.

Consistency:  Economic Model has finished in the money in 7 of his 8 career starts.

BetPTC.com selections

1st: #1 Anchor Down (2/1)   2nd: #2 Economic Model (6/1)  

3rd: #5 Ocean Knight (10/1)   4th: #7 Connect (5/2)

It’s always high risk backing a fairly one-dimensional horse in a big race, because often other horses near the front go too fast and the early leaders fall apart late.  However, ANCHOR DOWN is a fresh horse that appears to be working very sharply.  I’ll make him my top pick.  Economic Model loves to hit the exacta and if he breaks well from post two he will be moving best of all late.  He might very well get the trip from post two.  Ocean Knight ran very well in the Kelso and if Anchor Down doesn’t “freak” Ocean Knight might be in a great position to challenge for the win from just off the pace.  Connect is great horse to own, but his speed figures are moderate in this group, his trip in the Pennsylvania Derby was one of the best trips of all time, and Gun Runner’s result in the BC Dirt Mile didn’t really flatter Connect that much.  At roughly 5/2 odds I am playing AGAINST.

Graded Stakes Preview for Friday, November 25th, 2016

Three Year Old Fillies “Throw It Down” in the Lucrative Ms. Revere Stakes!

Churchill Downs Race 10 (post 5:27 Eastern), The Mrs. Revere Stakes (Grade 2, turf), 8.5 furlongs.

Class:  Harmonize has earned just over $584,000 in 10 turf starts, with nine of those races in stakes.

Expected Pace:  Fast!  Dear Elaine, Caren, Celestial Insight, Hawksmoor and Strive have all showed front-end speed in their recent races.

Consistency:  Caren is 4-3-0-1 in grass races, but three of her grass races were restricted to Ontario-breds.  This is her first effort in the States against top grass fillies.

BetPTC.com Selections:

1st – #11 Hawksmoor (5/2)   2nd – #8 Harmonize (2/1)  

3rd – #6 Linda (12/1)   4th – #3 Caren (10/1)

HAWKSMOOR was on the lead last time and ran very well, but I expect her to be off the pace on Friday with the jock switch to Florent Geroux.  This is a very talented animal and if she can repeat a race of quality similar to her last few races she should win this.  Harmonize has been in the exacta 7 out of 10 starts and she’ll probably run well again.  It might be worth trying to beat her in the horizontal bets because her morning line is very low compared to the type of race she typically runs.  Linda is a high quality horse that presses the pace and that runs a race good enough to get the money on Friday.  She’ll get the jump on Harmonize in the run, and that may be the deciding factor.  She’s great value in my opinion at 12/1 on the ML.  Caren is a speed horse that will try to take these as far as she can.  High early speed often does very well on this CD turf course too.

 

Older Males “Throw It Down” in the Grade 1 Clark Handicap!

Churchill Downs Race 10 (post 5:27 Eastern), The Clark Handicap (Grade 1) 9.0 furlongs.

Class:  Hoppertunity has won 3.86 Million in 23 career starts

Expected Pace:  Hard to say.  Noble Bird will get the lead if the other jocks let him have it.

Consistency:  They don’t get much more consistent than Gun Runner.  9 for 9 in the money on a fast track, 0 for 2 in the money on a wet track.  The advance weather report for Louisville predicts a DRY track at post time.

BetPTC.com Selections:

1st – #6 Noble Bird (7/2)   2nd – #9 Hoppertunity (5/2)  

3rd – #1 Gun Runner(4/1)   4th – #2 Effinex (4/1)   5th – #4 Shaman Ghost (8/1)

This race will come down to race tactics.  NOBLE BIRD is 3 for 3 wins when able to get clear at the first call.  The only horse that has the ability to run with him early is Gun Runner (look back at his 2016 Kentucky Derby effort if you do not think the horse has early gas).  However, it is pretty well established when Gun Runner goes hard early, he doesn’t finish well and if he tries to pressure ‘Bird too early it may mean both of them miss out on a nice check and a Grade 1 placing.  I am going to presume Gun Runner is going to hold back, allowing ‘Bird to roll early.  The main closing threat is Hoppertunity, who generally runs the same race every time.  There is a belief that Hoppertunity is more of a “win threat” on the softer Eastern tracks.  He’ll need that edge to compete for the win here.  Effinex and Shaman Ghost have both won on Eastern tracks and have run fast enough to compete well in this spot, but I just like my top three a lot more.

Friday Night Australian Racing, 11/18/2016

Race 1C Australia (Hawkesbury) Thursday, November 17, 2016.  HAWKESBURY RACE CLUB MOTEL-C2 ($30K) 9:50pm EST (8:50pm CST, 6:50pm PST) W, P, S, Ex, Qu, Tri, Super CL2 1 mile. Apprentices Can Claim.  Picks 6-7-4

This race is roughly equivalent in class to a $7,500 claimer in North America.  #6 LIVING CHOICE (7/2 ML) has won at the “Class 1” level going a mile, and seems well suited to win again going the next step up to the “Class 2” level tonight.  #7 Lord Kingsley (11/1) has only sprinted in his career but he is staking a class drop from the handicap ranks and he has the pedigree to get the mile.  #4 King Viv (5/2 ML) is taking a larger step up from straight maidens but he has some “stamina blood” in his pedigree (most horses bred in New Zealand are bred to get at least a mile) and he is a win contender – I just do not think the 5/2 ML is enough value.

 

Race 3A Australia (Kyneton) Thursday, November 17, 2016.  THE DRESSING TABLE MDN PLATE ($20K) 10:30pm EST (9:30pm CST, 7:30pm PST) W, P, S, Ex, Qu, Tri, Super, Pick 3 (3A, 4A, 5A) 3yo+ MDN SW.  Apprentices Can Claim.  Picks: 9-1-4

#9 MISTY SEA (3/1 ML) ran very well first out.  Generally Australian trainers do not try to win first out unless they have a monster on their hands.  This one should improve by lengths in its second start, but expect the win price to be even money or odds-on.  #1 Boss Coni (30/1 ML) is a first time starter in a field of low-talent horses.  He may stumble his way into completing the exacta.  #3 Duke of Nottingham (20/1 ML) is ridden by Michelle Payne.  Yes THAT Michelle Payne!  The jockey who won the 2015 Melbourne Cup on a 100/1 shot and then told everyone off in the winner’s circle to “get stuffed!”  Michele is now a part-time jockey/part-time trainer.  Not impossible this one could hit the board, it’s lightly raced and Michelle Payne can ride.

Graded Stakes Preview, Saturday, 11/19/2016

For fan/bettor excitement purposes, the Delta Jackpot Day has an all-stakes pick 4.  Here is what I could glean from the BRIS Ultimate PPs and Thoro-graph numbers for a healthy pick 4 caveman-style “stab,” starting in Delta’s 4th race on Saturday.  Remember Delta starts at 2:45 PM Eastern because they are having a ‘daytime card.’

Ded R4 pick 4 (post 4:13 PM Eastern):  3,4 with 3,5,10 with 1,2,8,10 with 1,2,4,7,9 = $60

Good luck everybody!

Older Males “Throw It Down” in the Six Furlong De Francis Dash!

Laurel Race 9 (Post 3:35 PM Eastern) The Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash (Grade 3)

Class:  Stallwalkin’ Dude has won nearly $1.09 Million in 46 starts.  X Y Jet has won $776,000 in 16 starts but is trying to fully recover from a minor knee injury suffered in March of 2015.

Expected Pace:  X Y Jet knows one way to win – get to the front and “improve his position!”  He is definitely the dominant early speed in this race.

Consistency:  X Y Jet has been in the money at a very high rate on a fast track (14-6-5-1).

BetPTC.com Selections:

1st – #8 X Y Jet (9/5)   2nd – #9 Stallwalkin’ Dude (5/2)   3rd – #2 Ivan Fallunovalot (5/1)

If X Y JET is 100% recovered from the knee injury he should just roll.  His races from the Winter and Spring of 2016 were quite good.  Stallwalkin’ Dude’s last few races were excellent.  I wonder if his stable expected him to be going this well when they mapped out his fall campaign.  Ivan Fallunovalot is in the best form of his career, he just appears slowwer on the BRIS Speed figures to contend with the top two picks.

 

Older Females “Throw It Down” in the Nine Furlong Cardinal!

Churchill Downs Race 10 (Post 5:30 PM Eastern) The Cardinal Stakes (Grade 3, turf)

Class:  Both Kitten’s Roar (9-4-3-1) and Lady Fog Horn (7-4-1-0) have excellent turf records, and Lady Fog Horn was a competitive second in this stakes last year.

Expected Pace:  Annulment set blistering fractions on the dirt on a sloppy Keeneland track in her last race, going wire to wire.  If she doesn’t go for the lead, longshot Belle de Nuit will try to set the fractions.

Consistency:  Kitten’s Roar has never been out of the money if we discard a poor Saratoga effort (8-4-3-1).

BetPTC.com Selections:

1st – #5 Kittens Roar (9/2)   2nd – #9 Heath (10/1)  3rd – #4 Lady Fog Horn (10/1)

4th – Lots O’ Lex (20/1)   5th – Belle de Nuit (30/1)   6th – Cash Control (7/2)

KITTENS ROAR has the winning form, decent speed figures, and human connections (trainer Mike Maker/jockey Jon Court) to make this a very solid play.  Heath will be ridden by a low win % turf rider (Joe Johnson), so that is some concern, but this mare has faced really good competition throughout her career and she deserves to win a race like this.  Lady Fog Horn has been “running up the score” against Indiana-breds, and the water is deeper now but last year in this race she showed she can win this type of race.  Lot’s O Lex doesn’t have “twelve furlong” stamina, but her record at a mile and a mile and 1/16th is more than acceptable.  At 20/1 she can be bet small to win and in the exotics.  Bell de Nuit will get the early lead, and if the other jockeys let her have it soft on the front end she can get the job done.  Cash Control might well win this race but she doesn’t appear to have any edges on the field and will likely be too short a price.

BetPTC.com Horses to Watch – 11/14/16

Horses to Watch – Ed Meyer

As the last of the fall clothes make their way to the closet, the crisp autumn air begins to turn brisk. The signs of change are all around. Your favorite winter ovals are getting ready to open their doors, and it won’t be long until we’ll be seeing the familiar signs of the first Saturday in May with the first round of preps.There is no better time to start building your bankroll as the holidays are coming, and be sure to take note of these runners as they could use a good bet at the windows next time out. – Best of luck from your friends at BetPTC.com !

Aqueduct

11/12/16

Race #2 – #1A – Data Driven – 1 mile on the dirt

Angel Arroyo for David Jacobson and their colt stumbled badly leaving the starting gate. He was well supported at the windows, and next time should have a winner’s circle photo in his future

Race  #6 – #2 -Delta Prince – 1 mile on the dirt

Joel Rosario in the saddle for James Jerkins and they were pin-balled around leaving the starting gate.  He never really settle din to find his comfortable stride and was a beaten favorite on this day.

Churchill Downs

11/12/16

Race  #3 – #6 – Going Strong – 1 1/16 on the dirt

Corey Lanerie settle his colt out nicely and tracked from the back of the pack. Once he was given the cue, he picked up the bit in a big way rallying on to be a solid 2nd this day. This was a very nice effort to build on for the future.

Race#8 – #8 – Petov – 6f on the dirt

Jack Gilligan for Ron Moquette and they sat just off the speed and and pounced at the top of the lane. He was an impressive winner on this day and could be ripe for a playback at a solid price moving up the ladder.

Del Mar

11/12/16

Race #3 – #1 – Mopotism – 6f on the dirt

Fernando Perez in the irons for Doug O’Neill and this filly by Broken Vow  was in tight leaving the starting gate. She settled down the backstretch and rallied on for a very game second place finish.

Churchill Downs

11/13/16

Race  #1 – #7 – Barry Swings – 6f

Chris Landeros had this son of Harlan’s Holiday in the cat bird set and got rolling late a round the far turn. He needed about 50 feet more and was lights out for the win. He’ll benefit greatly from this race and be a tough customer next time out.

Friday Night Australian Racing, 11/11/2016

Race 1A Australia (Rosehill) Friday, November 11, 2016.  FUNLAND AUSTRALIA HCP ($100K) 8:40pm EST (7:40pm CST, 5:40pm PST) W, P, S, Ex, Qu, Tri, Super. 2yo OPEN 5 1/2 furlongs. Apprentices can claim.  Picks:  3-7-1

#3 Epic Rant (6/1 ML) has the works and human connections to be a factor.  His sire Snitzel is known for being a very good source of sprinter-milers too.  Extremely well bred #7 Veranillo (5/2 ML) comes from the top shelf Godolphin  operation.  Obviously dangerous, but the time of its trial was on the slow side.  #1 Jungalized (4/1 ML) won at much lesser track at 3/10 odds by nearly 6 lengths.  His speed figure was not that great but he is certainly a win candidate against a bunch of first time starters.

 

Race 5A Australia (Rosehill) Friday, November 11, 2016.  ALL OUR MOB HCP ($100K) 11:05pm EST (10:05pm CST, 8:05pm PST) W, P, S, Ex, Qu, Tri, Super.  3yo+ OPEN.  6 furlongs.  Apprentices can claim.  Picks:  3-1

#3 Moral Victory (2/1 ML) is moving up the ladder sharply, winning two of his last three starts, and this is the kind of horse you want to be on in the handicap ranks, as the “new shooters” get to carry less weight.  In today’s race Moral Victory carries 7 pounds less than the top weight and main danger, #1 That’s A Good Idea (5/1 ML), who usually runs well enough without getting to the wire first.