Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – Nov. 21

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 11/21/20

by: Ed Meyer

Aqueduct

Race #9 – The G-3 Red Smith – 1 3/8 miles turf – 3:45 – pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #8 – Ziyad / #10 – Red Knight / #5 – North Dakota

#8 Ziyad exits the G3 Sycamore at Keeneland and gets 2nd time Lasix since shipping in from Deauville (Fr). Graham Motion is the trainer with Manny Franco aboard this speedy son of Rock of Gibraltar (IRE). He may improve getting a shorter distance and Franco wins 17% with early running turf horses. #10 Red Knight is a long range closer who hails from the Bill Mott barn where he is 2 for 2 ITM at AQU. Jose Ortiz in the irons and returns from the G3 Sycamore win over Ziyad. Ortiz wins with 20% of his closing turf runners and should be a major player. #5 North Dakota also exits the G3 Sycamore as a fourth place finisher. Jose Lezcano in the irons for Shug McGaughey and they are making a 2nd off the layoff move and where the barn wins 18% and steps up in class. Use in your exotics.

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Churchill Downs

Race#9 – The G3 Chilukki – 1 mile dirt – 5:06 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Finite / #3 – Grand Clu Classe / #4 – Whoa Nellie

#2 Finite hails from the Steve Asmussen barn with Ricardo Santana in the saddle. She is 2 for 2 with wins at CD and exits a fast closing 2nd at Keeneland in the G2 Raven Run. Santana fits like a glove and she is making her 3rd off the layoff move where the barn wins 19%. #3 Grand Clu Classe is a speedy daughter of Bernardini for Bill Mott and Tyler Gaffalione. She exits a big effort in the G2 Raven Run at a price and should enjoy the one turn mile at CD. #4 Whoa Nellie is a daughter of Orb who is a solid stalker. Larry Jones gives a leg up to Joe Rocco Jr. and she is coming off a 9 month layoff since OP. She is 4 for 4 ITM at CD and Jones can get them ready to fire right off the shelf.

Del Mar

Race #2 – The G3 Native Diver – 1 1/8 miles dirt – 4:00 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #3 – Royal Ship / #4 – Midcourt / #5 – Extra Hope

#3 Royal Ship is 3rd off the layoff since shipping in from Brazil for Richard Mandella who is winning 50% at the meet. This son of Midshipman is 8 for 9 ITM lifetime and takes a drop in class under the handling of Mike Smith coming off a 49 day rest. #4 Midcourt hails from the John Sheriffs’ barn with Victor Espinoza. He is 4 for 4 ITM over the course and comes off a 56 day break away from the races. Mandella wins 22% coming off a layoff. #5 Extra Hope is a speedy colt from Dick Mandella’s barn with Juan Hernandez in the saddle. He’s coming off a 56 day rest and takes a big step up in class. Look for a quick break from the gate.

 

Horse Racing Stakes Analysis – Saturday, Nov. 14

Horse Racing Stakes Analysis – Saturday, 11/14/20

by: Ed Meyer

Churchill Downs Race #10 – The G2 Mrs. Revere – 1 1/16 miles turf – 5:36 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – How Ironic / #3 – Stunning Sky /#4 – Princess Grace

#5 How Ironic exits the G3 Valley View and retains the services of Rafael Bejarano for Victoria Oliver. Bred to relish the turf and 1 for 2 ITM at CD. I really liked the way she split runners last out and gave a good account of her closing abilities in her last effort. She’ll come calling in the final furlong. #3 Stunning Sky is a Mike Maker trainee who won the G3 Valley View last out. She has faced plenty of graded company and is 5 for 10 ITM over the turf with Ricardo Santana in the irons looking to close from off the pace. #4 Princess Grace is solid stalking filly from the Mike Stidham barn and Florent Geroux has the call. She is lightly raced, but from her three lifetime starts she has 2 wins and a close second. She looks to be improving and since moving from Monmouth two back she gave a strong account of herself. Her sire Karakontie (JPN) is bred to relish the greensward.

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Aqueduct

Race #7 – The $100,000 Notebook – 6f – 2:45 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #7 – Blue Gator / #5 – Horn of Plenty / #4 – Eagle Orb

#7 Blue Gator is a perfect 2 straight for the Mike Maker barn with Kendrick Carmouche in the saddle. He looks to be a stalker and getting better off his only two starts. Carmouche back in the irons after missing his last race and I’m looking for a reunion of the original players. #5 Horn of Plenty is perfect with his one effort for Rob Atras barn and Dylan Davis in the driver’s seat. A closer who could come right back as trainer Atras wins 33% off the last race win. #4 Eagle Orb is a hard knocking son of Orb who appears to be a stalker for Rudy Rodriguez and Manny Franco. He should be up close looking for his lane to run.

Race #9 – The Artie Schiller – 1 mile miles turf – 3:47 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #10 -Therapist / #4 – Delaware /#5 – Hembree /

#10 – Therapist is a son of Freud for Christophe Clement. This New York runner always brings a solid effort and close from off the pace making his second start off a layoff. Javier Castellano calls the shots and wins 20% with turf closers. #4 Delaware is a son of Frankel (GB) for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz. He was a beaten favorite in the G2 King Edward at Woodbine and sports a sharp work off a 90 day break from the races. #5 Hembree is a deep closer from the Mike Maker barn with Kendrick Carmouche in the saddle. He has plenty of back class against graded company. He ships back from Pimlico and Maker wins 19% with shippers back to his barn.

 

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – Breeders’ Cup Saturday

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – Saturday – 11/7/2020

by: Ed Meyer for BetPTC.com

Breeders’ Cup / Keeneland / Day #2

Guaranteed pools – Pick-Five / $2 million – Pick-Four / $2 million

Race #8 – The G1 BC Sprint – 6f – 2:36 pm – Pick-Five

BetPTC.com Selections / #11 – Diamond Oops / #2 – C Z Rocket / #3 – Collusion Illusion

#11 Diamond Oops is one for one at KEE for Patrick Biancone and Florent Geroux in the saddle. 3rd off the layoff as they seek their 3rd straight win. Add in two straight bullet works and this son of Lookin At Lucky looks to come running in the final furlong. #2 CZ Rocket comes in for Peter Miller and Luis Saez. 3rd off the shelf and 2 for 2 at KEE. A stalker getting the rail trip allows for him to settle in and save ground. #3 Collusion Illusion hails from the Mark Glatt barn with Flavien Prat in the irons. 2nd off a layoff with a sizzling bullet work. He will be closing from far off the pace where Prat wins 27%.

Race #9 – The G1 BC Mile – 1 mile on the turf – 3:15 pm – Pick-Four

BetPTC.com Selections / #14 – Raging Bull / #11 – Ivar / #12 – Uni

#14 Raging Bull goes to post for Chad Brown with Jose Ortiz in the saddle. He is 3 for 4 ITM at KEE, and this late runner has plenty of early pace to get him rolling late in the lane. Ortiz wins 20% with late running turf horses. #11 Ivar is 1 for 1 at KEE for Paulo Lobo and Joe Talamo. They exit a win in the G1 Shadwell Mile and can stalk just off the pace making the 3rd effort off a rest. #12 Uni hails from the Chad Brown barn with Joel Rosario in the saddle. They are 2 for 3 ITM at KEE making a 3rd off the layoff move. They won their last race and the barn scores at 29% next time out.

Race #10 – The G1 Distaff – 1 1/8 – 3:54 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #10 – Monomoy Girl / #9 – Ollie’s Candy / #4 – Horologist

#10 Monomoy Girl hails from the Brad Cox barn with Florent Geroux in the irons. She won this race in 2018 and is 3 for 3 at the distance. She should get a closeup trip looking to keep the pace honest. Very dangerous to leave off your tickets. #9 Ollie’s Candy comes in for John Sadler and Joel Rosario. She’s been a bridesmaid the past two efforts and will be forwardly placed. Rosario wins 20% with early runners. #4 Horologist is trained by Bill Mott with Junior Alvarado in the saddle. 3rd off the layoff looking for two in a row. The rider and trainer team up to win 28% as a team.

Race #11 – The BC Turf – 1 1/2 on the turf – 4:33 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Magical / #3 – Tarnawa / #10 – Mogul

#2 Magical hails from the Aiden O’Brien yard with Ryan Moore in the irons. She ran on a deep track last out that’s not her preferred ground. Moore fits like a glove and she finished 2nd to Enable in 2018. Look for high gear around the final furlong. #3 Tarnawa is coming off a three in a row winning effort, and the distance fits her plans. She has a wicked late kick and very impressive. Dermot Weld and Christophe Soumillion team up together for a shot at the winner’s circle. #10 Mogul comes in from the Aiden O’Brien yard. They need solid ground and the weather is projected to be perfect in Kentucky, The distance looks to fit her perfectly.

Race #12 – The G1 BC Classic – 1 1/4 – 5:18 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #10 – Maximum Security / #8 – Improbable / #3 – By My Standards

#10 Maximum Security hails from the Bob Baffert barn with Luis Saez in the saddle. He’s been hitting on all cylinders this year and was a beaten favorite last out. Ever since the 2019 Derby, this colt has done very little wrong. #8 Improbable comes in for Bob Baffert and Irad Ortiz. Ships in from SA where they win 31% with new arrivals. Add in the bullet work and he may be dangerous seeking his 4th straight win. #3 By My Standards goes to post for Bret Calhoun and Gabriel Saez. 2 months off the layoff with red hot works show promise. This son of Goldencents always brings his top game rolling off the pace.

 

 

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – Friday Breeders’ Cup

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – Friday – 11/6/2020 

Breeders’ Cup / Keeneland /Day #1

by: Ed Meyer

Race #6 – The BC Juvenile Turf Sprint – 5 1/2f on the turf – 2:30 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #14 – Golden Pal / #8 – Amanzi Yimpilo / #5 – Cowan

#14 Golden Pal hails from the Wesley Ward barn and does well with young turf runners from his barn. Two back was beaten a neck at Royal Ascot for all the marbles in the Gr2 Norfolk and came back two months later to go wire to wire in the Skidmore at Saratoga. Irad Ortiz in the irons and he wins 27% with turf sprinters. #8 Amanzi Yimpilo comes from the Wesley Ward barn with a daughter of No Nay Never. Luis Saez in the driver’s seat and she beat the boys last out. She has speed to burn and Ward wins 27% third off the layoff. #5 Cowan is a Steve Asmussen trainee with Ricardo Santana in the saddle. She has a wicked late punch and came up just a bit short last out in the Indian Summer at KEE. Runners who have a trip over the track fair well and she will come rolling late in the lane.

Race #7 – The BC Juvenile Turf – 1 mile turf – 3:10pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #6- Mustasaabeq / #9 Battleground /#2 – New Mandate

#6 Mustasaabeq goes postward for Todd Pletcher and Luis Saez who are winning 31% as a team in the last few months. He circled the field seeing every inch of the track with a wide closing effort to win the G2 Bourbon. He was 8 wide and had a super strong late kick. #8 Battleground comes in from the Aiden O’Brien yard with Ryan Moore in the driver’s seat. This son of War Front kicked out and circled the field quickly last out to win Gr2 Veuve Clicquot Vintage at Goodwood last out. Been off since July and that is his only drawback. The Euro trainers have done well in this race over the years. #2 New Mandate is a son of New Bay (GB) rolling off three straight wins. He stalked the pace last out for Ralph Beckett as Frankie Dettori looks for his 3rd win aboard this talented colt. Frankie always looks to shine like a new penny on the big money days.

Race #8 – The BC Juvenile Fillies – 1 1/16 – 3:50 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Vequist / #3 – Dayoutoftheoffice / #7 – Princess Noor

#2 Vequist is the daughter of Nyquist for Robert Reid and Joel Rosario. Exits the G1 Frizette as a beaten favorite. Prior to that, she rolled by 9 lengths in the G1 Spinaway. Since her last race, there are some red hot works to have her ready. An up close stalker who is going to very tough when they turn for home. #3 Dayoutoftheoffice is a perfect three for three and gets to try her hand at going two turns for the first time. Trainer Tim Hamm is new to the big scene, but a regular name on the cut below the top rung of conditioners. He brings them ready and you can bet dollars to donuts he’ll have her ready for a top effort. Junior Alvarado has the call. #7 Princess Noor is a perfect 3 for 3 Bob Baffert. She has a smooth way of moving and has impressed clockers and trainers alike. She’s had her two turn try last out drawing off for fun in the G2 Chandelier. Victor Espinoza is aboard this stalker and she’ll come calling when the real running begins.

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Race #9 – The BC Juvenile Turf Fillies – 1 mile on the turf – 4:30 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #10 – Campanelle / #4 – Plum Ali / #14 – Editor At Large

#10 Campanelle is a perfect three for three shipping in from Deauville off a win. She’s been in the state’s training since July and Wesley Ward is the conditioner. She whipped the boys last out in Gr1 company and returns to face the ladies. The added ground should be no problem as Frankie Dettori looks to take them from gate to wire. #4 Plum Ali is a closer for the Christophe Clement barn with Joel Rosario in the irons. Her perfect 3 for 3 record is on the line and owns a sharp work coming into the race.

Race #10 – The BC Juvenile – 1 1/16 – 5:15 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #7 – Jackie’s Warrior / #5 – Essential Quality / #3 – Reinvestment Risk

#7 Jackie’s Warrior is a perfect 4 for 4 and owns a boatload of red hot speed. Steve Asmussen brings him to post with Joel Rosario in the saddle and looks to dictate the pace heading into the short stretch. There are some rabbits here who could pose a problem if he doesn’t make the front. Rosario wins 24% on speedy type runners. His win in the G1 Champagne is promising as this race has played a good prep in the past. Catch him if you can. #5 Essential Quality is a son of Tapit for Brad Cox and Luis Saez. His victory over the track in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity was very impressive and will be trying to wheel in the leaders in the far turn. His bullet work has me thinking good things can happen for the connections. #3 Reinvestment Risk has run 2nd twice against Jackie, and always seems to be playing second fiddle. If anything keeps the favorite from dictating the pace, this son of Upstart may have the best seat in the house turning for home for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz.

 

 

Horse Racing Stakes Analysis – Halloween

Horse Racing Stakes Analysis – 10/31/2020

by: Ed Meyer

Mahoning Valley – Best of Ohio

Race#6 – The Juvenile – 1 1/16 miles dirt – 2:34 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Uptown / #2 – Morestride / #4 – Brig

#5 Uptown was an ultra impressive winner by 10 lengths at Belterra last and Jose Bracho stays aboard winning 38% for the meet. This son of Upstart is getting better like a fine wine for Silvano Gonzalez and a repeat of his last puts him in the winner’s circle. #2 Morestride is a son of Midshipman who won at first asking by 10 for Mike Rone. Look for a speedy ride from the gate by Luis Rivera who wins 22% with early runners. #4 Brig is an early runner for Bob Gorham and will be right at the front when the gate springs open under Christian Pilares.

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Race #7 – The John W. Galbreath – 1 1/16 miles dirt – 3:02 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Alexandria / #7 – Lemon Deelite / #1 – Gonnabegood

#5 Alexandria is a speedy daughter of Constitution for Tim Hamm and Gerardo Corrales. She is perfect facing Ohio company and exits the G3 Pocahantas at CD. She ran a big race, and getting back to facing Ohio runners will be a welcome visit. Corrales was red hot at KEE this meet and takes his tack back to where he began. #7 Lemon Deelite had a terrible trip out of the gate according to the charts and came flying like her tail was on fire. Thom Drury goes to post with John McKee and they do well on Ohio days. #1 Gonnabegood is a speedy gal for Silvano Gonzalez drawing the rail spot under Luis Rivera replacing Erik Babaran. The added distance may be welcome.

Race #8 – The Ohio Sprint – 6f – 3:30 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #7 – Altissimo / #4 – Mo Don’t Know #5 – Diamond Dust

#7 Altissimo won this race last year and is 8 for 13 ITM at Mahoning. Richard Zielinski is the trainer and T.D. Houghton has the call. Look for a close up trip and poised to pounce at the top of the lane for two in a row. #4 Mo Dont No is a horse for the course with a red hot jockey in Jose Bracho winning 38%. He’s coming back to Ohio company exiting the G2 Phoenix at KEE. Anthony Quartarolo is the conditioner and can close from just off the pace. #5 Diamond Dust exits a synthetic win at Presque Isle for Tim Hamm; Gerardo Corrales in the saddle makes this early running son of Paynter trouble after finishing third last year.

Race #9 – The Best of Ohio Distaff – 1 1/8 miles dirt – 3:58 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #3 – Moonlit Mission / #1 – Totally Obsessed / #4 – Real Fancy

#3 Moonlit Mission comes off a fast closing effort going 6f and should relish the added distance. Two races back she was taken down in the Pay the Man Stakes at TDN after a controversial decision that drew attention from the wagering world. She won by 8 drawing away that day and retains the services of Erik Barbaran for Silvano Gonzalez. They are winning 29% as a team and should come calling late when they turn for home. #1 Totally Obsessed is 3 for 4 ITM over the course and should be up close under Jose Bracho for Gary Johnson. Beaten favorite last out and looks to turn the tables for a talented barn. #4 Real Fancy comes in from Presque Isle and steps up in class. T.D. Houghton aboard, and he usually rides Drillit in the race. I’m looking for a heady ride and a late move to pull the upset.

Race #10 – The Ohio Endurance – 1 1/4 miles dirt – 4:26 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #10 – Forewarned / #6 – Wicked Warrior / #3 – Let’scalliteven

#10 Forewarned is 3 for 3 ITM over the track for Uriah St. Lewis and Sonny Leon. They exit the G3 Pimlico Special and return to defend his win in last year’s edition of this race. The bullet work on 10/20 seals the deal for me as he’ll relish facing Ohio company again. Look for his late punch rounding the far turn. #6 Wicked Warrior is a speedy son of Wicked Strong for Benny Feliciano and Ricardo Felciano in the saddle. They are seeking 4 straight and the barn wins 26% off the last race score. #3 Let’s scalltieven goes from a sprint to a route picking up new rider John McKee for Robert C. Bennett. He should be in mid pack stalking the leaders waiting for a seam to run. Might be a nice addition to your exotic plays in this race.

Horse Racing Stakes Analysis – October 24

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 10/24/20

by: Ed Meyer

Belmont Race#3 – The $150,000 Sleepy Hollow – 1 mile – 1:15 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 -Breadman / #7 – Eagle Orb / #3 – Masked Man

#4 Breadman is a son of Constitution looking for 2 in a row making the turf to dirt switch. He exits a sharp morning work of 48 flat at Belmont for John Terranova as has John Velasquez in the irons. He’s a stout closer and Velasquez wins 17% with late runners. #7 Eagle Orb was a beaten favorite last out in the BF Bongard and adds blinkers today where the barn wins 22% of the time. Manny Franco in the saddle for Rudy Rodriguez with this son of Orb. He’s a stalker and blinkers may keep his mind on business. #3 Masked Man is making the turf to dirt switch for Rob Atras who is winning at 26% on the meet. Irad Ortiz in the irons and he wins 23% with speedy type runners.

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Race #4 – The $150,000 Ticonderoga – 1 1/16 on the turf – 1:49 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #3- Wegetsdamunnys / #1 – War Canoe / #4 – Myhartblongstodady

#3 Wegetsdamunnys is a strong closer from the Christophe Clement barn who is winning 25% at the meet and 27% teaming up with Junior Alvarado. She likes to come from the back of the pack and if you glance at her PPs you’ll see does very well coming off a layoff. #1 War Canoe hails from the Chad Brown barn with Irad Ortiz in the saddle. He’s been off 50 days with a bullet work. She’s a solid stalker and bred to enjoy the turf. Ortiz wins 23% with late runners and 23% on the sod. #4 Myhartblongstodady is a stalker from the Jorge Abreu barn with Jose Lezcano aboard. They are seeking a 4th straight win and a 60% winner from a small sampling and 21% with stalkers.

Race #6 – The $175,000 Empire Distaff – 1 1/16 – 2:53 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Ratajkowski / #5 – Critical Value / #6 – Lucky Move

#2 Ratajowski hails from the Graham Motion barn with Jose Ortiz in the saddle with the daughter of Drosselmeyer. She is 5 for 5 ITM at Belmont and comes off a 2 month layoff as a beaten chalk. Ortiz wins 20% with speed and 1 for 1 at the distance. She’ll be showing the way as they turn for home. #5 Critical Value is a stalker 3rd off the layoff for Jeremiah Englehart with Junior Alvarado. 3 for 3 ITM at Belmont and should stalk the speed in mid flight. #6 Lucky Move is a 3rd off the layoff daughter of Lookin At Lucky. Irad Ortiz has the call facing New York company again. Ortiz wins 31% with route runners and this stalker will be running late.

Race #8 – The $150,000 Mohawk – 1 1/16 on the turf – 3:59 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #8 – Cross Border / #5 – Therapist / #4 – Sanctuary City

#8 Cross Border hails from Mike Maker and Jose Ortiz winning 18% as a team. This son of English Channel is a stalker back against New York company. Ortiz wins 23% at the meet and cuts back in distance making a huge class drop. #5 Therapist comes from Christophe Clement and Irad Ortiz in the saddle. He’s been off 50 days and is 6 for 9 ITM at Belmont. He’s a late runner and does his best work against New York company and scores 22% with late runners. #4 Sanctuary City is a son of Temple City with Kendrick Carmouche in the saddle. 2nd off and he’s 2 for 2 ITM at Belmont. Takes a big step in class and today will be his acid test.

Race #10 – The $175,000 – Empire City – 1 1/8 – 5:05 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Mr. Buff / #3 – Funny Guy / #5 – Bankit

#2 Mr. Buff hails from the John Kimmel barn with Junior Alvarado in the irons. He’s a speedster and Alvarado wins 20% with early style runners. He does well facing New York runners and he’ll be tough to wheel back in. #3 Funny Guy is a stalker for John Terranova and John Velasquez in the irons. He goes from a sprint to a route and is 3 for 4 ITM at Belmont. This son of Big Brown will come calling late in the lane as they turn for home. #5 Bankit comes from the Steve Asmussen barn with Irad Ortiz in the driver’s seat. 4 for 5 ITM at Belmont and is a solid closer. Ortiz is one of the best finishers winning 22% with late runners.

 

 

Go for it or not to go for it?

My first two blogs over the last two weeks have talked about preparing for betting, now today’s is all about taking advantage of the prep.

You have watched the replays, you have scanned/capped the race card. At this point you should have a good feeling of the races to take a shot at or pass. One other thing to check would be are there any carry overs and what type of carry overs. Understand the difference between a good carry over and a jackpot carry over. A good carry over is it will be paid out that day.

My recommendation if it is a good carry over, start there with those races. Dead money always is in favor of the horse player, don’t miss out, but make sure you like the sequence.

Next step start with your strongest races you like, maybe a replay horse or a race with very few unknows and then build around that race. If I am playing sequence bets I need to have at least half of the races I like quite a bit. This doesn’t mean I have keys in every race, but does mean I have the max horses in the race I need.

If the bookends of your strongest race are terrible, it might just be an individual race bet. If the carry over is big enough in the sequence, I will take a small chance and play the sequence.

What makes a strong play?
Here are a few key points I look for:
-Understanding race shape
-A good replay that others might have missed
-Vulnerable favorite that you think will get beat, but the public doesn’t and over bets it
-Very few unknowns in the race, firsters for example

Always try and find that value, whether it is there because of a carry over, vulnerable favorite or your horse is paying higher than you thought.

Good luck and good racing.

Next Post Breeders Cup Week

 

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – Sunday, Oct. 18th

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 10/18/2020

by: Ed Meyer

Woodbine

Race #5 – The G1 Northern Dancer – 1 1/2 on the turf – 3:29 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #8 – Count Again / #7 – Admiralty Pier / #5 Nakamura

#8 Count Again is a strong closer from the Gail Cox barn with Luis Contreras in the saddle. This is his 3rd off the layoff where they win 18% of the time, and win 18% of graded stakes races. He’s 3 for 3 ITM at Woodbine and looks to be a major player today. #7 Admiralty Pier is a speedy son of English Channel. He gets blinkers off and the barn scores 33% on the equipment change. Steven Bahen has the call for Barbara Minshall. #5 Nakamura hails from the Graham Motion barn and is a stout late runner. Kazushi Kimura has the ride and is winning 13% at the meet.

Race #7 – The G1 E.P. Taylor – 1 1/4 on the turf – 4:37 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #3 – Etoile / #4 -Theodora B / #7 – Elizabeth Way

#3 Etoile comes to post for Chad Brown and Rafael Hernandez in the irons. This daughter of Siyouni (FR) is a late runner and can get in the game when the pace falls apart. The barn scores at a 26% win clip with turf races, and comes off a two month break as the beaten favorite. Chad Brown comes back to win 28% off the beaten chalk angle. #4 Theodora is a stalker for Michael Dickinson and Justin Stein. This daughter of Ghostzapper is seeking three straight coming off a win at KyD. She takes a step up the class ladder looking for the big score. #7 Elizabeth Way goes to post for Roger Attfield and Emma Jayne Wilson. This daughter of Frankel (GB) should be right on the pace to make her presence felt.

Race #9 – The G2  Neararctic – 6f on the turf – 5:45 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Kanthanka / #5 – Silent Poet / #9 – Olympic Runner

#2 Kanthanka hails from the Graham Motion barn with Luis Contreras shipping in from KyD. He has a late punch and with a solid pace can be effective. He was 7 wide in Kentucky over the undulating course and may enjoy the long stretch run to the wire. #5 Silent Poet goes to post for Nicholas Gonzalez who is winning 21% at the meet. He should be right at the front from the break and is 12 for 13 ITM over the course. #9 Olympic Runner comes from the Mark Casse barn and has a solid late run. Emma Jayne Wilson in the irons and was off slow in the G1 Woodbine Mile still make a late bid. This son of Gio Ponti will be rolling late in the lane.

What is your betting strategy?

Picking winners doesn’t always mean you are making money at the races.  Successful betting strategies usually does though.

Let’s begin realizing every race is a little different. Why is that?  Well there are  underlays, overlays, big or small fields, where the race is in the race card to name a few. If you are a bettor that bets the same way and amount in each race, then you are behind the eight ball right way. STOP THAT!!

Your need to adjust your betting according to the race and how confident you are on the race. How and what should we do?

Here are some do’s and don’t; hopefully you are on more of the do’s.
-Don’t bet the same amount on each race, there is no way you like each race equally.
-Do step up a little more when you have a strong play, step down when there are to many unknowns
-Don’t be one of those people that tell me they never bet favorites.  Why is that when they win around 30% of the time?
-If you avoid favorites you have already lost on 30% of the races. Favorites have value at times, too.
-Do understand when to box horses and when to make it a wheel.
-You should figure out the percentage of the horses in question; if equal, box, if different wheel.
-Don’t be that lazy handicapper that plays the caveman ticket in pick 4s or 5s.
-Most times you need to play multiple tickets – that saves you money and takes advantage of your handicapping ability.

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Here are a few other handicapping tips to set you up for success
-Do take advantage of all the new and improved handicapping tools out there to help you pick more winners.
-Don’t be that handicapper that thinks they know it all and has bet the same for 20 years.
-Do the research and pick your spots and make yourself some money at the races.

Comments are always welcome as I want to get better each day as well.

Next Week: Part 2 of Betting strategies, sequence bets,

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – Oct. 10

A Tremendous Card at Belmont Park

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 10/10/2020

by: Ed Meyer

Belmont Park Race #4 – The G1 Champagne – 1 mile – 1:58 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Reinvestment Risk / #4 – Jackie’s Warrior / #1 – Ambivalent

#5 Reinvestment Risk hails from the Chad Brown barn and is a solid closer. Irad Ortiz has the call and he wins 16% with Brown and 22% with closers. This son of Upstart is bred to be special and exits the G1 Hopeful as the beaten favorite. #4 Jackie’s Warrior was the winner of the G1 Hopeful and sports plenty of early speed for Steve Asmussen and Joel Rosario. He is 3 for 3 and looks to continue the count with a wire to wire win here. Rosario wins with 20% of his early runners. #1 Ambivalent is a son of Constitution for Doug O’Neill. John Velasquez has the call and he is the perfect stalker making a jump in class.

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Race #5 – The G1 Frizette – 1 mile – 2:30 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Vequist / #2 – Cantata / #4 – Joy’s Rocket

#1 Vequist comes in for Robert Reid with Luis Saez aboard. She’s a daughter of Nyquist and flashes good early foot. Her dam Vero Amore has 3 starters and 3 winners to her credit. That was an impressive win in the G1 Spinaway and she looks to build on that for bigger things to come. #2 Cantata had a huge maiden win for Steve Asmussen. This is a big jump in class and could be considered the acid test for future outings. Joel Rosario in the irons and he wins with 18% of his closers. #4 Joy’s Rocket is a speedy gal for Asmussen and Jose Ortiz. The rider is one of the best speed riders in the county winning 18% with early speed. She could play the role of the rabbit for her stable mate.

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Race #8 – The G1 Flower Bowl – 1 1/4 on the turf – 4:14 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Cambier Parc / #2 – My Sister Nat / #6 – Nay Lady Nay

#1 Cambier Parc is a solid stalker for Chad Brown with John Velasquez in the irons. She draws the rail and is 2 for 2 ITM at Belmont. She is 7 for 8 ITM on the weeds and Johnny V wins 13% with his turf mounts. She is tactical and will be dangerous. #2 My Sister Nat hails from the Chad Brown barn and is a strong late runner. She is 3 for 3 ITM at Belmont and will be rolling late under Jose Ortiz who wins 20% with his turf runners and 20% with late runners. #6 Nay Lady Nay comes in for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz. They win 16% as a team and she is a late runner to be respected. She is 6 for 8 ITM on the turf and making a 2nd off the layoff move. This is a jump in class, but she can be dangerous in the hands of one of the best closing riders in the sport who wins 22%.

Race #9 – The G1 Jockey Gold Cup – 1 1/4 – 4:48 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Happy Saver / #4 – Tacitus / #2 – Prioritize

#1 Happy Saver hails from the Todd Pletcher barn with Irad Ortiz in the saddle. This son of Super Saver is a perfect 3 for 3 and should be forwardly placed under Ortiz. This is a big test, and from what we’ve seen thus far – all systems look promising. #4 Tacitus hails from the Bill Mott barn with Jose Ortiz in the saddle. He is 3 for 4 ITM at Belmont and faced some real tough company. Look for a mid pack closing move and Ortiz wins 21% with his route runners. #2 Prioritize is a son of Tizway with Luis Saez in the irons. A strong closer who has to be respected for trainer James Bond.  The rider and trainer score at a 29% win clip as team and will come rolling late in the lane.