Horse Racing Stakes Analysis – Halloween

Horse Racing Stakes Analysis – 10/31/2020

by: Ed Meyer

Mahoning Valley – Best of Ohio

Race#6 – The Juvenile – 1 1/16 miles dirt – 2:34 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Uptown / #2 – Morestride / #4 – Brig

#5 Uptown was an ultra impressive winner by 10 lengths at Belterra last and Jose Bracho stays aboard winning 38% for the meet. This son of Upstart is getting better like a fine wine for Silvano Gonzalez and a repeat of his last puts him in the winner’s circle. #2 Morestride is a son of Midshipman who won at first asking by 10 for Mike Rone. Look for a speedy ride from the gate by Luis Rivera who wins 22% with early runners. #4 Brig is an early runner for Bob Gorham and will be right at the front when the gate springs open under Christian Pilares.

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Race #7 – The John W. Galbreath – 1 1/16 miles dirt – 3:02 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Alexandria / #7 – Lemon Deelite / #1 – Gonnabegood

#5 Alexandria is a speedy daughter of Constitution for Tim Hamm and Gerardo Corrales. She is perfect facing Ohio company and exits the G3 Pocahantas at CD. She ran a big race, and getting back to facing Ohio runners will be a welcome visit. Corrales was red hot at KEE this meet and takes his tack back to where he began. #7 Lemon Deelite had a terrible trip out of the gate according to the charts and came flying like her tail was on fire. Thom Drury goes to post with John McKee and they do well on Ohio days. #1 Gonnabegood is a speedy gal for Silvano Gonzalez drawing the rail spot under Luis Rivera replacing Erik Babaran. The added distance may be welcome.

Race #8 – The Ohio Sprint – 6f – 3:30 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #7 – Altissimo / #4 – Mo Don’t Know #5 – Diamond Dust

#7 Altissimo won this race last year and is 8 for 13 ITM at Mahoning. Richard Zielinski is the trainer and T.D. Houghton has the call. Look for a close up trip and poised to pounce at the top of the lane for two in a row. #4 Mo Dont No is a horse for the course with a red hot jockey in Jose Bracho winning 38%. He’s coming back to Ohio company exiting the G2 Phoenix at KEE. Anthony Quartarolo is the conditioner and can close from just off the pace. #5 Diamond Dust exits a synthetic win at Presque Isle for Tim Hamm; Gerardo Corrales in the saddle makes this early running son of Paynter trouble after finishing third last year.

Race #9 – The Best of Ohio Distaff – 1 1/8 miles dirt – 3:58 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #3 – Moonlit Mission / #1 – Totally Obsessed / #4 – Real Fancy

#3 Moonlit Mission comes off a fast closing effort going 6f and should relish the added distance. Two races back she was taken down in the Pay the Man Stakes at TDN after a controversial decision that drew attention from the wagering world. She won by 8 drawing away that day and retains the services of Erik Barbaran for Silvano Gonzalez. They are winning 29% as a team and should come calling late when they turn for home. #1 Totally Obsessed is 3 for 4 ITM over the course and should be up close under Jose Bracho for Gary Johnson. Beaten favorite last out and looks to turn the tables for a talented barn. #4 Real Fancy comes in from Presque Isle and steps up in class. T.D. Houghton aboard, and he usually rides Drillit in the race. I’m looking for a heady ride and a late move to pull the upset.

Race #10 – The Ohio Endurance – 1 1/4 miles dirt – 4:26 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #10 – Forewarned / #6 – Wicked Warrior / #3 – Let’scalliteven

#10 Forewarned is 3 for 3 ITM over the track for Uriah St. Lewis and Sonny Leon. They exit the G3 Pimlico Special and return to defend his win in last year’s edition of this race. The bullet work on 10/20 seals the deal for me as he’ll relish facing Ohio company again. Look for his late punch rounding the far turn. #6 Wicked Warrior is a speedy son of Wicked Strong for Benny Feliciano and Ricardo Felciano in the saddle. They are seeking 4 straight and the barn wins 26% off the last race score. #3 Let’s scalltieven goes from a sprint to a route picking up new rider John McKee for Robert C. Bennett. He should be in mid pack stalking the leaders waiting for a seam to run. Might be a nice addition to your exotic plays in this race.

Horse Racing Stakes Analysis – October 24

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 10/24/20

by: Ed Meyer

Belmont Race#3 – The $150,000 Sleepy Hollow – 1 mile – 1:15 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 -Breadman / #7 – Eagle Orb / #3 – Masked Man

#4 Breadman is a son of Constitution looking for 2 in a row making the turf to dirt switch. He exits a sharp morning work of 48 flat at Belmont for John Terranova as has John Velasquez in the irons. He’s a stout closer and Velasquez wins 17% with late runners. #7 Eagle Orb was a beaten favorite last out in the BF Bongard and adds blinkers today where the barn wins 22% of the time. Manny Franco in the saddle for Rudy Rodriguez with this son of Orb. He’s a stalker and blinkers may keep his mind on business. #3 Masked Man is making the turf to dirt switch for Rob Atras who is winning at 26% on the meet. Irad Ortiz in the irons and he wins 23% with speedy type runners.

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Race #4 – The $150,000 Ticonderoga – 1 1/16 on the turf – 1:49 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #3- Wegetsdamunnys / #1 – War Canoe / #4 – Myhartblongstodady

#3 Wegetsdamunnys is a strong closer from the Christophe Clement barn who is winning 25% at the meet and 27% teaming up with Junior Alvarado. She likes to come from the back of the pack and if you glance at her PPs you’ll see does very well coming off a layoff. #1 War Canoe hails from the Chad Brown barn with Irad Ortiz in the saddle. He’s been off 50 days with a bullet work. She’s a solid stalker and bred to enjoy the turf. Ortiz wins 23% with late runners and 23% on the sod. #4 Myhartblongstodady is a stalker from the Jorge Abreu barn with Jose Lezcano aboard. They are seeking a 4th straight win and a 60% winner from a small sampling and 21% with stalkers.

Race #6 – The $175,000 Empire Distaff – 1 1/16 – 2:53 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Ratajkowski / #5 – Critical Value / #6 – Lucky Move

#2 Ratajowski hails from the Graham Motion barn with Jose Ortiz in the saddle with the daughter of Drosselmeyer. She is 5 for 5 ITM at Belmont and comes off a 2 month layoff as a beaten chalk. Ortiz wins 20% with speed and 1 for 1 at the distance. She’ll be showing the way as they turn for home. #5 Critical Value is a stalker 3rd off the layoff for Jeremiah Englehart with Junior Alvarado. 3 for 3 ITM at Belmont and should stalk the speed in mid flight. #6 Lucky Move is a 3rd off the layoff daughter of Lookin At Lucky. Irad Ortiz has the call facing New York company again. Ortiz wins 31% with route runners and this stalker will be running late.

Race #8 – The $150,000 Mohawk – 1 1/16 on the turf – 3:59 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #8 – Cross Border / #5 – Therapist / #4 – Sanctuary City

#8 Cross Border hails from Mike Maker and Jose Ortiz winning 18% as a team. This son of English Channel is a stalker back against New York company. Ortiz wins 23% at the meet and cuts back in distance making a huge class drop. #5 Therapist comes from Christophe Clement and Irad Ortiz in the saddle. He’s been off 50 days and is 6 for 9 ITM at Belmont. He’s a late runner and does his best work against New York company and scores 22% with late runners. #4 Sanctuary City is a son of Temple City with Kendrick Carmouche in the saddle. 2nd off and he’s 2 for 2 ITM at Belmont. Takes a big step in class and today will be his acid test.

Race #10 – The $175,000 – Empire City – 1 1/8 – 5:05 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Mr. Buff / #3 – Funny Guy / #5 – Bankit

#2 Mr. Buff hails from the John Kimmel barn with Junior Alvarado in the irons. He’s a speedster and Alvarado wins 20% with early style runners. He does well facing New York runners and he’ll be tough to wheel back in. #3 Funny Guy is a stalker for John Terranova and John Velasquez in the irons. He goes from a sprint to a route and is 3 for 4 ITM at Belmont. This son of Big Brown will come calling late in the lane as they turn for home. #5 Bankit comes from the Steve Asmussen barn with Irad Ortiz in the driver’s seat. 4 for 5 ITM at Belmont and is a solid closer. Ortiz is one of the best finishers winning 22% with late runners.

 

 

Go for it or not to go for it?

My first two blogs over the last two weeks have talked about preparing for betting, now today’s is all about taking advantage of the prep.

You have watched the replays, you have scanned/capped the race card. At this point you should have a good feeling of the races to take a shot at or pass. One other thing to check would be are there any carry overs and what type of carry overs. Understand the difference between a good carry over and a jackpot carry over. A good carry over is it will be paid out that day.

My recommendation if it is a good carry over, start there with those races. Dead money always is in favor of the horse player, don’t miss out, but make sure you like the sequence.

Next step start with your strongest races you like, maybe a replay horse or a race with very few unknows and then build around that race. If I am playing sequence bets I need to have at least half of the races I like quite a bit. This doesn’t mean I have keys in every race, but does mean I have the max horses in the race I need.

If the bookends of your strongest race are terrible, it might just be an individual race bet. If the carry over is big enough in the sequence, I will take a small chance and play the sequence.

What makes a strong play?
Here are a few key points I look for:
-Understanding race shape
-A good replay that others might have missed
-Vulnerable favorite that you think will get beat, but the public doesn’t and over bets it
-Very few unknowns in the race, firsters for example

Always try and find that value, whether it is there because of a carry over, vulnerable favorite or your horse is paying higher than you thought.

Good luck and good racing.

Next Post Breeders Cup Week

 

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – Sunday, Oct. 18th

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 10/18/2020

by: Ed Meyer

Woodbine

Race #5 – The G1 Northern Dancer – 1 1/2 on the turf – 3:29 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #8 – Count Again / #7 – Admiralty Pier / #5 Nakamura

#8 Count Again is a strong closer from the Gail Cox barn with Luis Contreras in the saddle. This is his 3rd off the layoff where they win 18% of the time, and win 18% of graded stakes races. He’s 3 for 3 ITM at Woodbine and looks to be a major player today. #7 Admiralty Pier is a speedy son of English Channel. He gets blinkers off and the barn scores 33% on the equipment change. Steven Bahen has the call for Barbara Minshall. #5 Nakamura hails from the Graham Motion barn and is a stout late runner. Kazushi Kimura has the ride and is winning 13% at the meet.

Race #7 – The G1 E.P. Taylor – 1 1/4 on the turf – 4:37 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #3 – Etoile / #4 -Theodora B / #7 – Elizabeth Way

#3 Etoile comes to post for Chad Brown and Rafael Hernandez in the irons. This daughter of Siyouni (FR) is a late runner and can get in the game when the pace falls apart. The barn scores at a 26% win clip with turf races, and comes off a two month break as the beaten favorite. Chad Brown comes back to win 28% off the beaten chalk angle. #4 Theodora is a stalker for Michael Dickinson and Justin Stein. This daughter of Ghostzapper is seeking three straight coming off a win at KyD. She takes a step up the class ladder looking for the big score. #7 Elizabeth Way goes to post for Roger Attfield and Emma Jayne Wilson. This daughter of Frankel (GB) should be right on the pace to make her presence felt.

Race #9 – The G2  Neararctic – 6f on the turf – 5:45 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Kanthanka / #5 – Silent Poet / #9 – Olympic Runner

#2 Kanthanka hails from the Graham Motion barn with Luis Contreras shipping in from KyD. He has a late punch and with a solid pace can be effective. He was 7 wide in Kentucky over the undulating course and may enjoy the long stretch run to the wire. #5 Silent Poet goes to post for Nicholas Gonzalez who is winning 21% at the meet. He should be right at the front from the break and is 12 for 13 ITM over the course. #9 Olympic Runner comes from the Mark Casse barn and has a solid late run. Emma Jayne Wilson in the irons and was off slow in the G1 Woodbine Mile still make a late bid. This son of Gio Ponti will be rolling late in the lane.

What is your betting strategy?

Picking winners doesn’t always mean you are making money at the races.  Successful betting strategies usually does though.

Let’s begin realizing every race is a little different. Why is that?  Well there are  underlays, overlays, big or small fields, where the race is in the race card to name a few. If you are a bettor that bets the same way and amount in each race, then you are behind the eight ball right way. STOP THAT!!

Your need to adjust your betting according to the race and how confident you are on the race. How and what should we do?

Here are some do’s and don’t; hopefully you are on more of the do’s.
-Don’t bet the same amount on each race, there is no way you like each race equally.
-Do step up a little more when you have a strong play, step down when there are to many unknowns
-Don’t be one of those people that tell me they never bet favorites.  Why is that when they win around 30% of the time?
-If you avoid favorites you have already lost on 30% of the races. Favorites have value at times, too.
-Do understand when to box horses and when to make it a wheel.
-You should figure out the percentage of the horses in question; if equal, box, if different wheel.
-Don’t be that lazy handicapper that plays the caveman ticket in pick 4s or 5s.
-Most times you need to play multiple tickets – that saves you money and takes advantage of your handicapping ability.

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Here are a few other handicapping tips to set you up for success
-Do take advantage of all the new and improved handicapping tools out there to help you pick more winners.
-Don’t be that handicapper that thinks they know it all and has bet the same for 20 years.
-Do the research and pick your spots and make yourself some money at the races.

Comments are always welcome as I want to get better each day as well.

Next Week: Part 2 of Betting strategies, sequence bets,

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – Oct. 10

A Tremendous Card at Belmont Park

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 10/10/2020

by: Ed Meyer

Belmont Park Race #4 – The G1 Champagne – 1 mile – 1:58 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Reinvestment Risk / #4 – Jackie’s Warrior / #1 – Ambivalent

#5 Reinvestment Risk hails from the Chad Brown barn and is a solid closer. Irad Ortiz has the call and he wins 16% with Brown and 22% with closers. This son of Upstart is bred to be special and exits the G1 Hopeful as the beaten favorite. #4 Jackie’s Warrior was the winner of the G1 Hopeful and sports plenty of early speed for Steve Asmussen and Joel Rosario. He is 3 for 3 and looks to continue the count with a wire to wire win here. Rosario wins with 20% of his early runners. #1 Ambivalent is a son of Constitution for Doug O’Neill. John Velasquez has the call and he is the perfect stalker making a jump in class.

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Race #5 – The G1 Frizette – 1 mile – 2:30 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Vequist / #2 – Cantata / #4 – Joy’s Rocket

#1 Vequist comes in for Robert Reid with Luis Saez aboard. She’s a daughter of Nyquist and flashes good early foot. Her dam Vero Amore has 3 starters and 3 winners to her credit. That was an impressive win in the G1 Spinaway and she looks to build on that for bigger things to come. #2 Cantata had a huge maiden win for Steve Asmussen. This is a big jump in class and could be considered the acid test for future outings. Joel Rosario in the irons and he wins with 18% of his closers. #4 Joy’s Rocket is a speedy gal for Asmussen and Jose Ortiz. The rider is one of the best speed riders in the county winning 18% with early speed. She could play the role of the rabbit for her stable mate.

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Race #8 – The G1 Flower Bowl – 1 1/4 on the turf – 4:14 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Cambier Parc / #2 – My Sister Nat / #6 – Nay Lady Nay

#1 Cambier Parc is a solid stalker for Chad Brown with John Velasquez in the irons. She draws the rail and is 2 for 2 ITM at Belmont. She is 7 for 8 ITM on the weeds and Johnny V wins 13% with his turf mounts. She is tactical and will be dangerous. #2 My Sister Nat hails from the Chad Brown barn and is a strong late runner. She is 3 for 3 ITM at Belmont and will be rolling late under Jose Ortiz who wins 20% with his turf runners and 20% with late runners. #6 Nay Lady Nay comes in for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz. They win 16% as a team and she is a late runner to be respected. She is 6 for 8 ITM on the turf and making a 2nd off the layoff move. This is a jump in class, but she can be dangerous in the hands of one of the best closing riders in the sport who wins 22%.

Race #9 – The G1 Jockey Gold Cup – 1 1/4 – 4:48 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Happy Saver / #4 – Tacitus / #2 – Prioritize

#1 Happy Saver hails from the Todd Pletcher barn with Irad Ortiz in the saddle. This son of Super Saver is a perfect 3 for 3 and should be forwardly placed under Ortiz. This is a big test, and from what we’ve seen thus far – all systems look promising. #4 Tacitus hails from the Bill Mott barn with Jose Ortiz in the saddle. He is 3 for 4 ITM at Belmont and faced some real tough company. Look for a mid pack closing move and Ortiz wins 21% with his route runners. #2 Prioritize is a son of Tizway with Luis Saez in the irons. A strong closer who has to be respected for trainer James Bond.  The rider and trainer score at a 29% win clip as team and will come rolling late in the lane.

Why Watch Horse Racing Replays?

Check out the multi-track video player at BetPTC.com

Are you a handicapper that is only a numbers guys or do you like to look at replays? My opinion, numbers do not tell you the entire picture. There are more numbers guys than replay guys. To get the value you need in this game, get on the side of the minority of horse players.

The replays are found on most track websites but BetPTC has the feature built in for you to view all tracks and all races shown on the website. I use it all the time and rarely not use it for every race I am capping.

What to look for (or not) when watching a replay:
-The start of the race, how did the horse break
-a speed horse needing to be near the lead, break poorly –  very important
-a closer that usually is at the back – not as important
-Horses making middle moves
-outside losing ground on the turn –  important
-outside in the back stretch  – not as much because not losing lengths, but still good to see
-begins a move and has to check and loses their momentum – very important
-How much the jockey has to go to the whip
-If the jockey is already using the whip early, usually means the horse doesn’t want to run and needs to get interested
-If no whip is used until the stretch or very little in the race, I like seeing this, horse is giving it his all and wants to run, game
-Finishing the race
-I like to see good gallop outs after the race, especially if the horse is stretching out after this last race
-Did the horse have nothing left at the wire with their win, or lots left, says the horse can move up in class if has some left

Why watch replays, here is another reason. Do not trust the comment lines. What I mean by this, the charter might not put the important part of the race in the limited comments line.

Here is a recent example:  SEPTEMBER 6, 2020 – Century Mile Race #11 horse#2 Bang on.   Please watch it.
Tell me if you agree with the comment line, Fractious, needed more.
Sept. 25 at CTM Race #8   Horse #5 Bang on.  raced next time out. Watch this one.

Anyone not like $12.60 to win after the Sept. 6th replay?

There are many more of these out there.  Just watch some races, make some stable notes and look out for some nice prices that the numbers guys don’t get.

Good racing,
Stretch

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – Preakness Day

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 10/3/20

by: Ed Meyer

Pimlico

Race #5 – The G2 Miss Preakness – 6f – 1:22 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Mundaye Call / #2 – Wicked Whisper / #3 – Fly on Angel

#5 Mundaye Call is a solid filly for Brad Cox with Florent Geroux in the irons. She has plenty of early speed and turns back from 7f. She is 4 for 6 ITM and has been looking better with every race. Flo should have her right in the mix as he wins 19% with speed runners. #2 Wicked Whisper hails from the Steve Asmussen barn with Joe Bravo in the saddle. She can lay just behind the pace and move on the far turn. She exits a very game effort in the G3 CT Oaks. #3 Fly on Angel has speed to burn with Angel Cruz in the saddle. She won the G3 CT Oaks and can easily upset the apple cart today.

Race #6 – The G2 Dinner Party – 1 1/16 on the turf – 2:01 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #7 – Factor This / #2 Somelikeithotbown / #3 Hembree

#7 Factor This is a speedy son of The Factor for Brad Cox and Florent Geroux. He exits a tough beat in the G1 Turf Classic at CD and should improve at the shorter distance cutting back from 9f. Cox wins 26% with his turf runners and 21% with graded starters. I’m looking for a wire to wire win. #2 Somelikeithotbrown goes postward for Mike Maker and Paco Lopez. He is 6 for 8 ITM on the turf and has a good turn of foot. Lopez is winning 19% on the turf and the drop in class should help his cause. #3 Hembree is a stone cold closer for Mike Maker and Daniel Centeno in the irons. This son of Proud Citizen has a solid late punch with breeding for the turf.

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Race #10 – The G2 Black Eyed Susan – 1 1/8 miles dirt – 4:41 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Bonny South / #8 – Hopeful Growth / #2 – Truth Hurts

#5 Bonny South is a daughter of Munnings for Brad Cox and Florent Geroux. Her dam Touch the Star has 2 starts and 2 wins to her credit. Her race in the G1 Alabama was solid and she has a good late run. Geroux wins 24% with route runners. #8 Hopeful Growth hails from the Anthony Margotta barn with Trevor McCarthy in the saddle. She is a perfect stalker who faded badly in the G1 Kentucky Oaks last out. McCarthy is winning 28% at the meet and she is 4 for 6 ITM lifetime. #2 Truth Hurts comes from the Chad Summers barn stepping up in class. She is 3rd off the layoff and switches from the Woodbine synthetic. She always gives a sound effort and may be a nice addition to your exotics.

Race #11 – The G1 Preakness – 1 3/16 miles dirt – 5:36 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #3 – Art Collector / #9 – Authentic / #5 – Thousand Words

#3 Art Collector hails from the Thom Drury barn with B.J. Hernandez in the irons. He’s been off 55 days since being scratched from the Kentucky Derby as he nicked the bulb of his left front heel. He is seeking his 6th win and Drury wins 22% with a short layoff runner. #9 Authentic exits off a win in the Derby and shoots for three in a row. He’s a versatile sort  who can grab the lead or lay just off. He hails from the Baffert barn and he wins 27% with graded stakes runners. #5 Thousand Words is a son of Pioneer of the Nile for Bob Baffert and Florent Geroux. He has tactical speed and can be close or hang off the leaders. He is 5 for 7 ITM lifetime and exits a stakes win at DM. He should be close to the front where Geroux wins 19%.

 

Sunday’s Arc de Triomphe Horse-by-horse Analysis

We focus on the chances of each runner for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, the feature race on 3 October.  Watch, wager and get instant rewards on the Arc with betptc.com

Persian King

Winner of the 2019 G1 Poule d’Essai des Poulains (1600m), Persian King has established himself as one of the leading milers in Europe this season with multiple Group One victories, including the G1 Prix Moulin (1600m) at Longchamp and the G1 Prix d’Ispahan (1600m).  Although breeding on his dam side would suggest stamina should not be an issue, Persian King is stepping out to 2400m for the first time in his career and has to prove his staying ability.

Royal Julius 

An experienced campaigner, Royal Julius has competed across Europe with some success. Highlights from this season include a third in the G3 Grand Prix de Chantilly (2500m) and a second in the G2 Premio Federico Tesio (2000m) at San Siro (Italy). It will be his first attempt in Group One company since 2018.

Way To Paris 

Way To Paris comes to the ‘Arc’ after a career-best season, with a Group One and Group Two victories amongst other black type placings. The seven-year-old achieved a first Group One success in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud (2400m) in late June and was only beaten three lengths in the G2 Prix Foy (2000m) after a break.

Sovereign 

A long-priced winner of the G1 Irish Derby (2400m) during his Classic campaign, Sovereign has been lightly campaigned this season with only three runs. Following a third in the G3 Vintage Crop Stakes at the Curragh, he chased home Enable in the three-runner G1 King George and Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (2400m). The Galileo colt may appreciate the return to 2400m after a disappointing run in the G1 Irish St Leger (2800m).

Japan 

Half-brother to Group winners Sir Isaac Newton and MogulJapan has been inconsistent throughout his career. Talented on his best day, the Galileo colt achieved a career best when winning the G1 International Stakes (2100m) at York in August 2019. He’s hit the frame twice this season but would need to bounce back from a disappointing run in the G1 Irish Champion Stakes (2000m).

Stradivarius 

Champion stayer Stradivarius drops back in trips to have a tilt at Europe’s richest race following another successful season over long distances. A three-time winner of the G1 Ascot Gold Cup (4000m), he was narrowly denied victory in the G2 Prix Foy (2400m) in his trial for the ‘Arc’. Olivier Peslier picks up the ride with regular jockey Frankie Dettori favouring Enable.

Sottsass

2019 G1 Prix du Jockey Club (2100m) winner Sottsass catches the eye as a possible candidate for victory in the ‘Arc’, having placed third behind Waldgeist in the 2019 renewal. Winner of the G1 Prix Ganay (2100m) at Chantilly in June, he will be looking to recapture best form after a below-par effort in the G1 Irish Champion Stakes (2000m).

Enable 

‘Queen of the Turf’ Enable will be bidding – for the second time – for a historic third victory in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Second behind Waldgeist in the 2019 renewal, the champion race-mare has enjoyed a straightforward season with victories in the G1 King George and Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (2400m) and the G3 September Stakes (2400m AW). Her record over 2400m is exceptional and she may prove hard to beat.

Deirdre 

Japanese star Deirdre has been campaigned in the UK and Ireland over the last two years winning over two million pounds in prize money. Although her European form falls short of top-level, she demonstrated plenty of ability when scoring in the G1 Nassau Stakes (2000m) in 2019 and can’t be ignored if returning to that level.

Gold Trip 

Trained by Fabrice ChappetGold Trip has been lightly campaigned over the course of the season and caught the eye with a success in the G2 Prix Greffulhe (2200m). Although the colt struggled in the G1 Prix du Jockey Club (2100m), he showed better form when third in the G1 Grand Prix du Paris (2400m) behind Mogul seeming to enjoy the additional stamina test.

Chachnak  

One of five three-year-olds in the race, Chachnak looked to be a leading contender for the G1 Prix du Jockey Club (2100m) after a hard-fought success in the G2 Prix du Guiche (1800m). Although disappointing in the Classic itself, Chachnak bounced back to form with a victory in the G3 Prix du Prince d’Orange (2000m) and tries 2400m for the first time.

In Swoop

The least experienced runner in the field, In Swoop has achieved two victories and two placings from four career starts. Winner of the G1 Deutsches Derby (2400m) in July, the German-bred colt produced a big performance to place second behind Mogul in the G1 Grand Prix de Paris (2400m) and continues to improve.

Mogul 

Touted as a likely Epsom Derby winner at the end of his juvenile campaign, Mogul has improved with each run this season and achieved his first Group One victory when scoring comfortably in the G1 Grand Prix de Paris (2400m) at Longchamp in mid-September. The Galileo colt continues to make headway and should not be dismissed with the advantage of a three-year-old weight allowance.

Serpentine

A surprise winner of the G1 Epsom DerbySerpentine was given an enterprising ride by jockey Emmet McNamara to steal the Classic from the front, beating his nearest rival by five and a half lengths. The colt’s only subsequent start came in the Grand Prix de Paris where he finished fourth behind stablemate MogulSerpentine would need to step up again after that below-par performance.

Raabihah  

A close fourth behind Fancy Blue in the G1 Prix de Diane (2100m), Raabihah continues to improve with each outing and caught the eye with a useful second against older competition in the G1 Prix Vermeille (2400m). Her age and sex allowance will be helpful against experienced rivals and trainer Jean-Claude Rouget remains confident in her ability.

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – Sept 26

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 9/26/20

by: Ed Meyer

Belmont Park Race #9 – The G2 Vosburgh – 6f – 5:14 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Firenze Fire / #6 – Engage / #2 – Funny Guy

#5 Firenze Fire is 5 for 7 ITNM at Belmont for Kelly Breen and Jose Lezcano. He cuts back from 7f and sports a bullet work. He should stalk just off the pace and move around the sweeping turn. Lezcano wins 21% with his stalking type runners and trainer Kelly Breen brings them ready. #6 Engage hails from the Steve Asmussen barn with Jose Ortiz in the saddle. He is 3 for 3 ITM at Belmont and will come running late. Ortiz has been aboard and should fit well in this compact field. #2 Funny Guy is a son of Big Brown for John Terranova and Joel Rosario. This is his 3rd off the layoff and exits a game effort as the beaten chalk in the G1 Forego. Look for a late run as they turn for home.

 

Churchill Downs Race #9 – The G3 AckAck – 1 mile – 4:53 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Warrior’s Charge / #8 – Ebben / #9 – Bankit

#1 Warrior’s Charge hails from the Brad Cox barn. Florent Geroux has the call and sports a good turn of speed. This is 2nd off the layoff, and cuts back in distance. He draws the rail and should be the one to beat today. This son of Munnings may be getting his late year campaign in order. #8 Ebben comes in from the Steve Margolis barn with Corey Lanerie in the irons. He is 6 for 10 ITM at CD and seeks his 4th straight win. He’s a stalker and Lanerie knows the track better than many. #9 Bankit is a stone cold closer for Steve Asmussen and Ricardo Santana. This is his 3rd off the shelf shipping in from CT and this New York bred will come running late in the race. He may be an excellent addition to your exotics.

 

Santa Anita Race #10 – The G1 Awesome Again – 1 1/8 – 8:00 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Maximum Security / #2 – Improbable / #4 – Midcourt

#5 Maximum Security exits off his 6th straight win from last year’s Derby. Bob Baffert brings this son of New Year’s Day with Luis Saez in the irons. He is versatile but will be right there when the gate breaks. His record is a testament to his ability for this monster and should handle this field. #2 Improbable hails from the Baffert barn with Drayden Van Dyke. He seeks three in a row and exits off a win in the G1 Whitney. He will lay just off the leaders. #4 Midcourt is a son of Midnight Lute with Victor Espinoza in the saddle. He has very good speed but will have his hands full. He loves SA going 6 for 8 ITM lifetime over the course.