Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – Pegasus World Cup Day

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 1/23/2021

by: Ed Meyer

Gulfstream Park

Race #9 – The G2 Inside Information – 7f – 3:40 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 – Thissmytime / #2 – Cinnabunny / #8 – Sound Machine

#4 Thissmytime is a daughter of Carpe Diem for Kathleen O’Connell and Edgard Zayas aboard. She is 4 for 6 ITM at GP and the stalker is making her third start off the layoff. The barn wins 20% with sprinters and her last two have been impressive wins. Look for an up close break and keeping the pace honest. #2 Cinnabunny hails from the Brad Cox barn with Irad Ortiz in the irons. She’s a gamer and brings her best game every time. This stalker was a beaten chalk last out and the barn comes back to score at a 30% clip. #8 Sound Machine comes in for Saffie Joseph and this closer is 4 for 5 ITM at GP. Joseph is winning 19% for the meet, and 26% with dirt runners. Jose Ortiz has the call and will come running when they turn for home.

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Race #10 – The G3 W. L. McKnight – 1 1/2 on the turf – 4:13 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Sadler’s Joy / #4 – Temple / #6 – Sir Sahib

#5 Sadler’s Joy is a stout son of Kitten’s Joy who can come rolling late in the lane. He’s been off for two months for Thom Albertrani and Jose Ortiz in the irons. They are 4 for 6 ITM at GP and I’m looking for a late run fresh off the bench where Ortiz wins 22% with late runners. #4 Temple hails from the Mike Maker barn and been off for 49 days. He was a beaten chalk last out and the barn comes back for payback at a 22% clip. He is 9 for 9 ITM at GP and sports a solid late kick down the lane. Irad Ortiz wins at an impressive 25% win clip with turf closers. #6 Sir Sahib ships in from Woodbine off a 3 month layoff. Jose Corrales is the conditioner and Luis Saez has the call. The distance fits this late runner and looks to come back fresh and ready.

 

Race #11 – The G1 Pegasus Turf – 1 3/16 miles on the turf – 4:59 pm

BetPTC.com Selections /#5 – Colonel Liam / #6 – Largent / #1 – Next Shares

#5 Colonel Liam hails from the Todd Pletcher barn with Irad Ortiz in the driver’s seat. They are winning 32% as a team. He comes running late and won last out with Ortiz in the saddle. Ortiz has been 23 for 39 ITM the past week and makes his 2nd start off a brief layoff. Each start on the sod has improved and with a sharp work all systems are looking good for today. #6 Largent is 5 for 5 ITM at GP for Todd Pletcher and Paco Lopez. He’s a mid pack stalker who looks poised to pounce on the far turn. His dam Life in Seattle has 7 starts, 5 wins, and 3 turf wins to her credit. #1 Next Shares comes from the Richard Baltas barn with Drayden Van Dyke in the irons. 3rd start off a layoff switching to Van Dyke from Jose Valdivia. Look for a late run when they square off at the top of the lane.

 

Race #12 – The G1 Pegasus World Cup – 1 1/8 miles dirt – 5:44 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 Knicks Go / #10 – Harpers First Ride / #10 – Code of Honor

#4 Knicks Go is a speedy son of Paynter for Brad Cox and Joel Rosario. He’s been away for two months and sports a bullet work in preparation. He won the BC Mile and should break alert from a good post and dictate the pace. Rosario wins with 23% of his speed style runners and he fits this star well. #10 Harpers First Ride is a late runner from the Claudio Gonzalez barn with Angel Cruz in the irons. He ships in from Laurel where he has won two straight. This son of Paynter has a good late run and should toss his hat in the ring at the top of the lane. #10 Code of Honor hails from the Shug McCaughey barn with Tyler Gaffalione in the saddle. He’s been off for 56 days and has some sharp works at Payson Park to have him ready to fire fresh. Shug wins 19% with layoff runners and was a beaten chalk in the G1 Clark. He is 2 for 3 ITM at the distance and should be a player when the real running begins.

 

 

 

 

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – Saturday, Jan. 16

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – Saturday, 1/16/2021

by: Ed Meyer

Fair Grounds Race #10 – The G-3 Louisiana – 1 1/16 – 5:23 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #8 – Wells Bayou / #6 -Title Ready / #3 – Silver Prospector

#8 Wells Bayou is a speedy son of Lookin At Lucky for Brad Cox and Florent Geroux in the saddle. He has been off for 8 months and 1 for 1 at FG. He sports a sharp work and has fired fresh off the bench. Geroux wins 24% with speed type runners.  The Cox runner is the horse to beat.  #6 Title Ready is a closing runner for Dallas Stewart with B.J. Hernandez in the irons. He’s been off for 50 days and exits the G1 Clark back in November. He is 5 for 10 ITM at the distance and should muster up a solid late effort.

 

Race #11 – The $125,000 Colonel E.R. Bradley – 1 1/16 on the turf – 5:52 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #11- Mr. Misunderstood / #10 – Sailing Solo / #9 – Peace Achieved

#11 Mr. Misunderstood hails from the Brad Cox barn teaming up with Florent Geroux. He is 4 for 6 ITM at FG and exits an effort off the synthetic at TP. A late runner for Geroux who wins 17% on the turf. His dam Jodys Delight  has 10 starters and 4 turf winners to her credit. Look for a big run as they turn for home. #10 Sailing Solo is a speedy son of Smart Strike for Louis Roussel and Mitchell Murrill in the irons. This is his 2nd start off a layoff and should improve moving forward. Murrill wins 16% with early speed. #9 Peace Achieved is a stalker for Mark Casse and Declan Carroll. He exits KyD and cuts back to a better distance. Carroll will be looking to be mid pack and poised to pounce.

 

Race #12 – The $150,000 Silver Bullet Day – 1mile and 70 yards – 6:20 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #9 – Sunpath / #1- Souper Sensational / #3 – Charlie’s Penny

#9 Sunpath is a daughter of Munnings for Brad Cox and Florent Geroux in the saddle. She exits an impressive win in allowance company and looks to take the next step up the ladder moving forward. Add in a bullet work and this stalker looks like a major player. #1 Souper Sensational is a daughter of Curlin for Mark Casse and Declan Carroll. She is a lightly raced daughter of Curlin and exiting the synthetic at Woodbine. She appears ready for the next level and owns a sharp work in preparation off a three month layoff. #3 Charlie’s Penny is a stalker from the barn of Chris Block with B.J. Hernandez getting the call. She has never ran a route and I’m looking for a quick break from the gate.

 

Race #13 – The G-3 Lecomte – 1 1/16 – 6:49 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Arabian Princess / #1 – Midnight Bourbon / #10 – Mandaloun

#2 Arabian Princess is lightly raced for the Dallas Stewart barn and B. J. Hernandez in the irons. He’s been off 49 days and takes a drop down the class ladder. He has a solid late punch and will come calling under Hernandez who scores with 16% of his late runners. #1 Midnight Bourbon hails from the Steve Asmussen barn with Ricardo Santana aboard. He’s been off for three months and takes a plunge down the class ladder. He should be right on the pace, and with added ground may be right on the hook under Santana who wins 17% with early runners. #10 Mandaloun is a late runner who is a perfect 2 for 2 coming off a 49 day layoff. The Brad Cox trainee will come calling under Florent Geroux and they are winning at a 24% clip as a team. This is his 1st time at a route and should be a little closer than usual rounding the first turn.

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Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – Saturday, Jan. 9

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – Saturday, 1/9/2021

by: Ed Meyer

 

Santa Anita

Race #8 – The G-3 La Canada – 1 1/16 – 6:30 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 – Message / #3 – Fighting Mad / #2 – Hard Not to Love

#4 Message hails from the Bob Baffert barn with Flavien Prat in the irons. 2nd off the layoff yields a 27% win clip for Baffert, and teaming up with Prat wins 20%. She is 3 for 4 ITM over the course and a stalking sort who can be dangerous. Prat scores 28% with stalkers and should lay just off the pace. #3 Fighting Mad is a speedy mare for Bob Baffert with Abel Cedillo in the irons. She takes a class drop and failed as a beaten chalk last out. If left alone she can easily wire the field where Cedillo wins 19% with early type runners. #2 Hard Not to Love comes in for John Sheriffs going 9 for 9 ITM over the course. A deep closer who takes a drop in class coming off a  three month layoff.

Race #9 – The G-3 Las Cienegas – 6f on the turf – 7:00 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #6 – Oleksandra / # 5 – Superstitious / #4 – Lighthouse

#6 Oleksandra is a daughter of Animal Kingdom for Neil Drysdale and Joel Rosario. She is 3 for 4 ITM over the course and been off for two months. She drops down the class ladder against the boys in the G1 BC Turf Sprint. She’s a solid late runner with a good turn of foot down the lane. Rosario wins 18% with his closing turf runners. #5 Superstitious is an up close stalker for Richard Mandella and Flavien Prat. This daughter of Ghostzapper is 2 for 2 ITM over the course and exits a game win at DM. She gets the acid test moving up in class and brings her 4 for 4 ITM turf record to the table. #4 Lighthouse comes off a three month break for Simon Callaghan and 3 for 4 ITM at SA. Umberto Rispoli has the call and he wins 24% with his turf runners. Look for a an up close trip where Rispoli wins 20% of the time.

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Gulfstream Park

Race #10 – The G-3 Tropical Turf – 1 mile on the turf – 4:49 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #6 – Analyze It / #4 – Doctor Mounty / #3 – Ride a Comet

#6 Analyze It is a son of Point of Entry for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz. He’s been away from the races for three months and Brown scores 29% off a 90 day or more layoff. A stalking sort who takes a big drop in class from the G1 Shadwell at KEE and should get a solid trip under Ortiz who wins 22% with stalkers. #4 Doctor Mounty is a late runner for Shug McCaughey and Jose Ortiz in the saddle. He’s been off 49 days and should fire fresh off the bench with a solid work under his belt. #3 Ride a Comet is a son of Candy Ride for Mark Casse and Tyler Gaffalione. The late runner has been off for 49 days and sports a couple of bullet works in preparation. He makes the synthetic to turf move and has fired fresh off the shelf in the past.

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – Saturday, Jan. 2

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Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – Saturday, 1/2/2021

by: Ed Meyer

Santa Anita

Race #7 – The G2 San Gabriel – 1 1/8 miles turf – 6:30 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Count Again / #6 – Anothertwistafate / #7 – Bowie’s Hero

#5 Count Again is a son of Awesome Again who is 6 for 7 ITM on the turf for Phil D’Amato and Juan Hernandez who is winning 22% at the meet. He exits a win in the G2 Seabiscuit closing late going wide in the lane. The rider wins 19% with closers and should enjoy the distance today. #6 Anothertwistafate makes a 2nd off the layoff for Peter Miller and Joel Rosario. Look for a swift break from the gate. He adds blinkers and may improve as the barn scores at a 15% clip on this move. #7 Bowie’s Hero enters for Phil D’Amato and Flavien Prat. A late runner with a solid punch making a 2nd off the shelf. move. Prat wins 22% with closers on the sod. The barn scores 16% with turf runners and the distance should be welcome.

Race #8 – The G3 Sham – 1 mile – 7:00 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Life is Good / #4 – Uncle Boogie / #3 – Parnelli

#5 Life is Good is a speedy son of Into Mischief for Bob Baffert and Mike Smith. He should break sharp in the hands of Smith who wins 30% with quick runners and Baffert wins 26% with graded stakes runners. #4 Uncle Boogie is a son of Ride on Curlin coming off 48 day break. Flavien Part has the call and wins 29% with his stalker type runners. He gets added distance and should relish more ground. #3 Parnelli is a speedster for John Sheriffs and Drayden Van Dyke. The rider wins 23% going a route and takes a step up in class. He is 4 for 4 ITM lifetime.

Aqueduct

Race #8 – The $100,000 Gravesend – 6 1/2f – 3:50 pm ET

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Happy Farm / #2 – Drafted / #5 – Stan the Man

#1 Happy Farm is a speedy son of Ghostzapper for Linda Rice and Jose Lezcano. He’s been off for 10 months and Rice wins 20% with layoff runners, and has plenty of early foot from the rail. He lost this race by a head last year and looks to turn the tables today. #2 Drafted is a stalker for David Duggan and Dylan Davis. 2nd off the layoff yields a 17% win clip for the barn. Look for a strong move around the far turn looking for the leaders. #5 Stan the Man is a late running sort for John Terranova and Eric Cancel aboard. He gets an extra half furlong to run and owns a bullet work in preparation. Dropping pounds from the G3 Fall Highweight should be another plus.

 

Can you be a better handicapper in 2021?

Was 2020 a successful year in your handicapping? If so, great, why not make it even better. If not, why? Do you know where you struggled the most? Was it playing to many sequence bets or betting under valued horses?

Every horse player needs to know their strengths and weaknesses. If you don’t, you will not know when to take that big shot on a horse or bet.

I find the biggest mistake by horse players is playing the same way year after year and not trying to improve their handicapping.

What have you done lately to improve?

Here are a few things to do more of:
-watch more replays
-be better prepared before the races start
-look at some of the new/old handicapping software out there, formulator to name one
-be more adaptable to the race
-avoid having the same type of bet for most races

So many horse players think they are great handicappers, why is that? If everyone was so good, more favorites would win and the prices would be lower. Currently not the case.

Ask yourself, what would you rate yourself as a horse player overall from a scale of 1 to 10 ?

There has been a study in regards to people rating themselves in the field they are in. The study has found that the best of the best in their field rates them selves around a 4.5 out of 10. Why is that, it is because they never stop learning. If you rated yourself at 7 or higher, you may want to think again. One of my favorite lines is “What you don’t know, you don’t know?” Think about that line and understand why that is so powerful.

Be better in 2021

Happy New Year everyone !!

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – Dec. 26 Opening Day at Santa Anita

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 12/26/2020

by: Ed Meyer

Santa Anita Race #8 – The G1 La Brea – 7f – 5:43 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Finite / #8 – Motivated Seller / #2 – Merneith

#5 Finite is a daughter of Munnings for Steve Asmussen and his go to rider Ricardo Santana. They are cutting back from a mile and exit a strong win in the G2 Chilukki at CD. Look for a stalking trip today going from a route to a sprint yielding a 25% win clip for the barn. #8 Motivated Seller is a lightly raced filly for Chad Brown and Umberto Rispoli. His dam Coup has 4 starters and 4 winners to her credit.  Look for an up close break where Rispoli wins 20%. #2 Merneith is a stalker who has been on the shelf for 49 days since winning at KEE. Bob Baffert brings her to post with John Velasquez in the saddle. Look for a quick break off swift morning works.

Race #9 – The G-1 American Oaks – 1 1/4 on the turf – 6:17 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Luck Money /#9 – Sharing / #8 – Duopoly

#5 Luck Money is a daughter of Lookin At Lucky for Arnaud Delacour coming off a 56 day rest with Ricardo Santana in the irons. The barn wins 23% with long layoff runners returning and seeks her third straight win turning back in distance. Look for a solid late run around the far turn. #9 Sharing goes to post for Graham Motion and John Velasquez. She is 1 for 1 at SA and should lay just off the pace. She is 6 for 7 ITM on the greensward. #8 Duopoly is a speedy daughter of Animal Kingdom for Chad Brown and Flavien Prat. This is her 3rd start off the layoff shipping in from AQU where Brown wins 29% with a change of scenery.

Race #10 – The G-1 Malibu – 7f – 6:51 pm

BetPTC.com Selections/ #3 – Nashville / #4 – Charlatan / #6 – Independence Hall

#3 Nashville is a speedy son of Speightstown for Steve Asmussen and Ricardo Santana. He exits a smoking hot win in the Perryville where he broke the teletimer. They seek their 4th straight win and Santana should be the one to beat from the gate break. #4 Charlatan turns back in distance off a 7 month layoff for Bob Baffert and Mike Smith. His record is perfect and cutting back may be just what the doctor ordered on his comeback effort. He should be right behind the pacesetters. #6 Independence Hall is a son of Constitution who enters in off a 48 day break for Mike McCarthy and Joel Rosario. His last race win was perfect and the morning works show a fresh and ready runner.

 

Look for the races that continue to give

Everyone likes to receive a gift this time of year, well each day there are races that continue to give to the sharp horse player.

What type of races that have the Christmas spirt, the races with “Vulnerable Favorites.”

What is a vulnerable favorite, it’s a horse that has to many reasons for it not to win.

Here are just a few that I like to use to bet against a favorite:
-A very low percentage trainer and or jockey
-Race shape does not set up for them, example speed horse with three other speed horses
-a layoff with no real workout and a drop
-beaten favorite two of the last three times
-a horse that has a more seconds and thirds, with limited wins

We know that favorites win around 33%, so you cannot always bet against a favorite, some offer great value, others like above reasons do not.

Enjoy the holiday season and find that value out there

 

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – Dec. 12

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 12/12/2020

by: Ed Meyer

 

Gulfstream Park

Race #4 – The G-3 Rampart – 1 mile – 1:35 PM

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Letruska / #2 – Bajan Girl / #3 – Sally’s Curlin

#5 Letruska is a pure speedster in the hands of Emisael Jaramillo who wins 21% with quick runners from the break. This daughter of Super Saver is 2 for 2 at GP and been on the shelf for two months. She cuts back in distance and drops down in class. #2 Bajan Girl hails from the barn of Rohan Crichton under Edgar Prado. 3rd time off the layoff and has a stalker style to her resume. They win 12% 3rd time off the shelf and seek a third straight win. #3 Sally’s Curlin is a strong closer for the Dale Romans barn with Corey Lanerie aboard. This daughter of Curlin is 2 for 2 ITM at GP and exits the G1 BC Filly Mare Sprint. The drop in class and 2nd off the layoff may help her causes greatly.

 

Race #9 – The G3 Harlan Holiday – 1 1/16 – 4:09 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Phat Man / #1 – Tax / #6 – Math Wizard

#2 Phat Man is a strong closer for Kent Sweezey and Irad Ortiz in the irons. He is 3 for 3 ITM at GP and 9 for 12 ITM at the distance. 2nd start off the layoff with a sharp work to tighten down the screws for this affair. Ortiz fits well and wins 29% with route closers as the barn is winning 22% at the meet. #1 Tax has been off for 7 months and has run well freshened up in the past. Danny Gargan brings this this son of Arch to post with Luis Saez in the saddle. He turns back in distance and drops down a rung in class. A stalker who draws the rail and where the trainer wins 24% with route runners. #6 Math Wizard is a late runner for Saffie Joseph and Tyler Gaffalione in the driver’s seat. He’s been off for 3 months and takes a class drop today. Blinkers off today and the barn scores at a 27% clip with this equipment change. Ships in from Saratoga has works over the track.

Race #10 – The G-2 Ft. Lauderdale – 1 1/8 on the turf – 4:40 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #9 – Factor This / #10 – Halladay / #5 – Channel Cat

#9 Factor This is a blistering speedster for Brad Cox and Jose Ortiz. Ortiz wins 18% with early runners and been off since the BC Mile. He ships in from KEE and the barn scores at a 26% clip. Look for Ortiz to send immediately when the gates break. #10 Halladay is a speedy son of War Front for Todd Pletcher and Luis Saez.  He is 3 for 3 with wins at GP and should be right near the lead. If Factor This doesn’t have a stellar break he could be double dangerous. #5 Channel Cat is a late runner for Jack Sisterson and Corey Lanerie. He is 6 for 8 ITM at GP and been off 8 months since the G2 Pan American. He cuts back in distance and will come calling late in the lane.

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Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – Dec. 5

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 12/5/2020

by: Ed Meyer

Aqueduct Race #4 – The G2 Remsen – 1 1/8 miles dirt – 1:00 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Known Agenda / #5 – Ten for Ten / #3 – Brooklyn Strong

#2 Known Agenda is a son of Curlin and 1 for 1 at AQU. An impressive closer and Todd Pletcher is winning 31% with John Velasquez in the irons. He is 2 for 2 lifetime and should come rolling quick down the lane. #5 Ten for Ten is a speedy son of Frosted for Shug McGaughey and Jose Ortiz in the saddle. Look for Ortiz to send right from the break as he wins 19% with speedy runners. #3 Brooklyn Strong is a perfect stalker and has Joel Rosario in the driver’s seat. This gelded son of Wicked Strong should be sitting in the catbird seat turning for home.

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Race #9 – The G2 Demoiselle – 1 1/8 – 3:44 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Malathaat / #5 – Dollar Mountain / #6 – Cafe Society

#1 Malathaat is a daughter of Curlin and sports good early foot for the Pletcher barn. John Velasquez has the call and should come out swinging from the inside post. Johnny V wins 22% with early style runners. #5 Dollar Mountain is a stalker who moved off the turf last time for George Weaver. Jose Lezcano in the irons for the stalker and looks for a trip just off the speed. #6 Cafe Society hails from the Shug McGaughey barn with Jose Ortiz getting the nod. Speedy daughter of Empire Maker moving up the ladder and might be dangerous if able to find the front.

Race#10 – The G1 Cigar Mile – 1 mile – 4:13 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Performer / #4 – Firenze Fire / #5 – Mr. Buff

#1 Performer comes in for Shug McGaughey and Joel Rosario. Been away for 49 days and may fire fresh off the shelf as the barn wins 19% on this move. He is seeking his 6th straight and will be dangerous breaking from the rail where it wins 29%. #4 Firenze Fire goes to post for Kelly Breen with Jose Lezcano in the saddle. A solid stalker with a sharp late punch and 3 for 5 ITM at AQU. Should be in the second flight working out a good trip. #5 Mr. Buff is a speedster from the John Kimmel barn with Junior Alvarado between the ears. 2nd off the layoff moving up in class. Will be dangerous if left alone on the lead.