BetPTC.com Weekend Stakes Preview – Nov. 16

BetPTC.com / Weekend Stakes Preview

by: Ed Meyer

Aqueduct

Race #8 – The Key Cents – 6f – 3:20 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #3 – Time Limit / #7 – Big Q / #2 – Playtone

#3 Time Limit is a daughter of Bustin Stones for trainer Mike Maker with Javier Castellano in the irons. They make the turf to dirt move and drop from graded company. She should dictate the pace under Castellano and he scores 24% with early runners. #7 Big Q is a daughter of Big Brown for the Gary Gullo barn. Jose Lezcano gets the nod and she’s been off for two months since Saratoga. She gets 2nd time Lasix and has regular works at Belmont. She should be in top form. #2 Playtone comes from the George Weaver barn with Manny Franco aboard. 3rd off the shelf and the barn scores 20% with two year old runners. This daughter of Tonalist is taking a step up in class and should be ready.

Churchill Downs

Race #10 – The G-3 River City – 1 1/8 on the turf – 5:36 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 – Mr. Understood / #3 – Blue Sky Kowboy / #2 – Emmaus

#4 Mr. Understood is a son of Archarcharch for the Brad Cox barn who is winning 26% at the meet. Florent Geroux is back in action and they have been on the shelf for 48 days. They are seeking a repeat in this stake and are 5 for 5 ITM over the course. He comes in freshened and beaten chalk at Remington last out. Geroux will come rolling late in the final furlong. #3 Blue Sky Kowboy is a son of Kodiak Kowboy for the Michelle Boyce barn. Sophie Doyle gets the call and she’ll have this gelding flying late in the race. He’s 11 for 15 ITM on turf and exits a stake win at Hawthorne. #2 Emmaus hails from the Conor Murphy barn with Channing Hill in the saddle. This is his 3rd off the layoff and sitting on a huge effort. He’ll come calling late in the race and will need a solid pace to be a factor. Murphy wins 20% off a last race win.

Del Mar

Race  #8 – The G-3 Bob Hope  7f – 7:00 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #3- Thousand Words / #6 – Strongconstitution / #5 – High Velocity

#3 Thousand Words is a son of Pioneer of the Nile for Bob Baffert with Flavien Prat in the saddle. He closed fast to win his opener and added distance should be welcome. Prat wins 23% with sprinters and Baffet wins 32% with his babies. #6 Strongconstitution comes from the barn of Doug O’Neill with Abel Cedillo in the irons. 2nd start off the layoff and owns a bullet work to prepare. This son of Constitution has plenty of speed and Cedillo wins 23% with speedy runners. #5 High Velocity enters in for Bob Baffert and Drayden Van Dyke. An impressive maiden win going five and a half and this son of Quality Road should break sharply. Van Dyke and Baffert win 38% as a team.

BetPTC.com Horse Racing Stakes Preview – Nov. 9th

BetPTC.com / Weekend Stakes Preview

by: Ed Meyer

Churchill Downs

Race #10 – G3 Commonwealth Turf – 1 1/16 on turf – 5:36 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #6 – Spectacular Gem / #7 – Tracksmith / #14 – Journeyman

#6 Spectacular Gem comes from the James Baker barn with James Graham in the saddle. They are looking for three in a row and his sire Can the Man wins 19% with his turfers. He should be right on the engine fresh off a win in the Jefferson Cup. #7 Tracksmith is a son of Street Sense for trainer Joe Sharp and Brian Hernadez Jr. He is 5 for 7 ITM on turf and was closing stoutly in the Jefferson Cup at CD. He is 2 for 2 ITM in Louisville and his last race showed good promise. #14 Journeyman is a son of Animal Kingdom for Eoin Harty and Declan Cannon in the irons. He exits the Dueling Grounds Derby moving quick in the final furlong. He owns a win and a 2nd on the greensward.

Aqueduct

Race #8 – The Artie Schiller – 1 mile on the turf – 3:20 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Frontier Market / #9 – Dr. Edgar / #8 – Caribou Club

#1 Frontier Market comes from the Chad Brown barn with Irad Ortiz in the saddle. A son of Lemon Drop Kid off 49 days and fires fresh off the layoff. The rail is winning 28% and the drop in class should have this closer skimming the hedge to the winner’s circle. #9 Dr. Edgar is 2nd off the layoff for Barclay Tagg and Dylan Davis in the irons. A speedy son of Lookin At Lucky drops in class from the G-2 Knickerbocker and should be right with the speed on the cutback in distance. #8 Caribou Club comes from the barn of Thom Proctor and Feargal Lynch. He has been off 49 days and owns a bullet work to prepare. A son of City Zip has a strong late kick and should be a player in the final furlong.

Race #9 – The Atlantic Beach – 6f on the turf – 3:50 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Freewheeler / #8 – Embolden / #6 – American Pharoah

#5 Freewheeler is a son of City Zip for Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz. They add blinkers and that yields a 20% win clip. Last out he was closing on the BC winner Four Wheel Drive. Ortiz wins 21% with turfers and look for a mid pack closing trip. #8 Embolden is a son of The Factor for Michael Stidham and Joel Rosario. The add blinkers and get a 20% win clip with added equipment. Rosario wins 19% with early runners. #6 Turned Aside is a son of American Pharoah who wins 20% with his turf runners. Linda Rice and Jose Lezcano team up to win 22%. This colt should be up close and dangerous.

BetPTC.com Breeders’ Cup Preview – Saturday

BetPTC.com / Breeders’ Cup Preview / Saturday / 11-2-19

by: Ed Meyer

Santa Anita

Race #4 – The B/C F&M Sprint – 7f – 2:55 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #8 – Dawn the Destroyer / #4 – Come Dancing / #5- Lady Ninja

#8 Dawn the Destroyer is 3rd off the shelf for Kiaran McLaughlin and Tyler Gaffalione. She ran a fast closing 2nd in the G2 TCA at Kee and gets added distance today. The barn wins 21% with shippers and Gaffalione is ready for the big stage. #4 Come Dancing is a daughter of Malibu Moon with Javier Castellano in the irons. 3rd off the layoff looking for three in a row. Castellano should have her in a perfect stalking mode. #5 Lady Ninja comes from the barn of Richard Baltas with Drayden Van Dyke. She is 9 for 10 ITM at SA. Add in a red hot work and she’ll be dangerous if the pace is salty down the lane.

 

Race #5 – The BC Turf Sprint – 5f on turf – 3:33 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Totally Boss / #5 – Stubbins / #10- Eddie Haskell

#1 Totally Boss comes in for Rusty Arnold and Jose Ortiz has the call. They are looking for 3 in a row exiting a big win in the G3 Turf Sprint at KyD. Ortiz gets the rail and is 6 for 7 ITM running short. He’ll be rolling up the hedge late in the game. #5 Stubbins goes to post for Doug O’Neill and Flavien Prat in the irons. They exit a win in the G2 Woodford at Kee. He is 2 for 2 at SA and 2 for 2 ITM at the distance. Prat will come rolling late in the running. #10 Eddie Haskell in for Mark Glatt and Joel Rosario aboard. He’s been stepping up each time and has the ability to come rolling late. He got shuffled about and still closed stoutly as the beaten chalk in the G2 Eddie D.

 

Race #6 – The BC Dirt Mile – 1 mile – 4:10 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 – Mr. Money / #2 – Improbable / #5 – Omaha Beach

#4 Mr.  Money is a son of Goldenscents for Bret Calhoun and Gabriel Saez. 2nd off the layoff and cuts back in distance where he is 1 for 1 going a mile. He’ll be mid pack and Saez will have him in top gear. #2 Improbable comes in for Bob Baffert and Rafael Bejarano as they are 1 for 1 at SA. 3rd off the layoff where the barn wins 22% and turns back in distance, He’ll be just off the lead and will stalk a close rail trip. #5 Omaha Beach is 2nd off the layoff for Dick Mandell and Mike Smith in the saddle. This son of War Front is 3 for 3 at SA. His works are tight and you can’t slight the connections. He’ll be on the engine in the guiding hands of Smith.

 

Race #7 – The BC F&M Turf – 1 1/4 on turf – 4:54 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Sistercharlie / #7 – Vasilika / #10 – Mrs. Sippy

#2 Sistercharlie is the daughter of Myboycharlie (IRE) for Chad Brown and John Velasquez. She is seeking her 7th straight win and Brown has win this race four times prior. She is 5 for 6 ITM at the distance and comes in 2nd off the layoff after winning the G1 Flower Bowl. #7 Vasilika is a daughter of Skipshot for Dan ward and Flavien Prat aboard. She exits a fast closing effort in the G1 First Lady at Kee and with Prat in the irons you know he’s going to find her best stride. #10 Mrs. Sippy a daughter of Blame for Graham Motion and Joel Rosario. 3rd off the shelf and was a fast closing 3rd in the G1 Flower Bowl. She sports a wicked late kick.

 

Race #8 – The BC Sprint – 6f – 5:36 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #9- Imperial Hint / #4 – Mitole / #5 – Engage

#9 Imperial Hint comes in for Luis Carvajal with Javier Castellano in the saddle. 2nd time out off a gutsy win in the G1 Vosburgh. His works are sharp and will display versatility stalking just off the pace. #4 Mitole is a son of Eskendreya for Steve Asmussen with Ricardo Santanna aboard. The first start in two months and his works are strong. Cuts back in distance and will be right near the front. His speed may carry him to the winner’s circle. #5 Engage in for Asmussen and John Velasquez. They are seeking their 3rd straight win and with the early pace in here his late stride may be the answer. He was impressive winning the G2 Phoenix last out.

 

Race #9 – BC Mile – 1 mile turf – 6:20 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #14 – Bowie’s Hero / #11 – Uni / #1 – Suedois

#14 Bowie’s Hero 2nd off the layoff and winner of the G1 Shadwell last out. He loves SA going 6 for 9 ITM and his only knock is the outside post. With Flavien Prat in the irons for Phil D’Amato, he’s going to find his best run. #11 Uni is a daughter of More Than Ready for Chad Brown and Joel Rosario. Winner of the G1 First Lady and knocked heads with the boys before. Brown knows how to spot them and Joel will get her late closing kick in gear. #1 Suedois was closing eight wide in the G1 Shadwell and was 3rd under a blanket finish. Castellano picks up the mount from Jamie Spencer and trainer David O’Meara always brings his runners ready.

fund for the Breeders' cup

Race #10 – The BC Distaff – 1 1/8 – 7:00 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #5- Dunbar Road / #4- Midnight Bisou / #11 – Blue Prize

#5 Dunbar Road is a daughter of Quality Road for Chad Brown and Jose Ortiz. 2nd off the layoff and 6 for 6 ITM. The G1 Spinster was a perfect prep and Ortiz back in the irons should have her running late. #4 Midnight Bisou is a daughter of Midnight Lute for Steve Asmussen and Mike Smith in the saddle. She is seeking her 8th in a row and is a horse for the course going 4 for 4 ITM at SA. Smith will have this stalker in handy order as they turn for home. #11 Blue Prize a daughter of Pure Prize and is 5 for 5 ITM this year. She is 2nd off the shelf after a win in the G1 Spinster. She loves the distance and Joe Bravo looks to pick up the leaders on the far turn.

 

Race #11 – The BC Turf – 1 1/2 on turf – 7:40 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #10 – Old Persian / #9 – Bricks and Mortar / #5 – Anthony Van Dyke

#10 Old Persian is a son of Dubawi (IRE) for the Charles Appleby yard. Willam Buick has the call and they exit an impressive win in the G1 Northern Dancer getting 2nd Lasix today. His closing effort last out was eye catching at Woodbine and looks to wear down the leaders in the lane. #9 Bricks and Mortar comes in for Chad Brown with Irad Ortiz getting the call. They are seeking a 7th straight win and his dam Beyond the Waves has 7 starters, 7 winners, and 6 turf winners to her credit. Ortiz wins 21% with closers and this son of Giant’s Causeway looks like the one to beat. #5 Anthony Van Dyke is a son of Galileo for Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore. He was a beaten chalk in last year’s BC Juvenile Turf and looks for payback against a stout field.

 

Race #12 – The BC Classic – 1 1/4 – 8:44 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #11 – Code of Honor / #10 – Vino Rosso / #8 – McKinzie

#11 Code of Honor comes in for Shug McGaughey and John Velasquez. 3rd off the layoff and was put up in a DQ to win the G1 Jockey Gold Cup. He’s a closing son of Noble Mission and has been working well to keep sharp. The one to beat. #10 Vino Rosso is a son of Curlin for Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz. He is 1 for 1 at SA and owns a couple of sharp works to prepare. He’ll be up close and ready to move when Ortiz hits the accelerator. He may want some payback as he was moved to 2nd against Code of Honor last out. #8 McKinzie is 7 for 7 at SA for the Baffert barn with Joel Rosario getting the call. He was a beaten favorite last out in the G1 Awesome Again and this son of Street Sense should be up close. Add in that bullet work and we may have a sleeper who can take down the prize.

BetPTC.com – Breeders’ Cup Preview – Friday Day One

BetPTC.com / Breeders’ Cup Preview / Friday 11/1/19

by: Ed Meyer

Santa Anita

Race #5 – The G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint – 4:12 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #9 – Four Wheel Drive / #7 – Kimari / #5 – Encoder

#9 Four Wheel Drive is a son of American Pharaoh and a perfect 2 for 2. Wesley Ward and Irad Ortiz team up as he’ll duke it out with stablemate Kimari and hang on at the wire. Ortiz wins 23% on the turf and his sire wins 21% with his turf runners. #7 Kimari comes from the Wesley Ward barn and closed strongly to beat the boys at Keeneland in the Indian Summer after getting bumped and circling the entire field. John Velasquez back in the saddle and this is a positive sign. #5 Encoder comes from the John Sadler barn with Flavien Prat in the saddle. Beaten favorite last out and cuts back in distance,  Prat wins with 23% of his turf mounts.

 

Keeneland offer at BetPTC

Race #6 – The G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf – 1-mile turf – 4:52 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #12 – Arizona / #14 – Hit the Road / #13 – Fort Myers

#12 Arizona comes from the yard of Aidan O’Brien with Ryan Moore in the irons. Last out faced Europe’s top sprinter in Pinatubo and gets added ground today. First Lasix and should relish the firm going. #14 Hit the Road is a son of More Than Ready for Dan Blacker and Flavien Prat. 1 for 1 at Santa Anita and exits a strong closing win in the Zuma Beach. 2 for 2 on turf and moving to Prat is a big plus. #13 Fort Myers is a son of War Front for Aidan O’Brien with Wayne Lordan getting the nod. The yard’s runners must be respected and they all do well in this race historically. Adds Lasix shipping in from Dundalk and shouldn’t be overlooked.

 

Race #7 – The G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies – 5:32 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 – British Idiom / #7 – Wicked Whisper / #6 – Bast

#4 British Idiom is a Brad Cox trainee with Javier Castellano in the saddle. They won the G-1 Alcibiades and it appeared to be the perfect prep. She is 2 for 2 and looks to stalk and pounce. #7 Wicked Whisper comes from the barn of Steve Asmussen with Joel Rosario going wire to wire off the G1 Frizette. She has the perfect breeding to carry her speed. Add in the sharp work and you have to look very closely. #6 Bast is a daughter of Uncle Mo for the Baffert barn winning 28% at the meet. She’s a stalking sort and has John Velasquez in the driver’s seat.

 

Race #8 – The G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf – 6:12 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #9 – Albigna / #12 – Sweet Melina / #7 – Crystalle

#9 Albigna is a daughter of Zoffany (IRE) from the Harrington yard with Shane Foley aboard. Exits a Group 1 at Lonchamp and her dam Freedonia has 6 starters, 5 winners, and 5 turf winners to her credit. She should enjoy the firm footing today. #12 Sweet Melania is a daughter of American Pharaoh for Todd Pletcher and Jose Ortiz. 3rd off the layoff and exits an impressive win in the G2 Jessamine at Kee. She’ll be up close and Ortiz wins 20% with his early runners. #7 Crystalle comes from the John Kimmel barn with Joel Rosario. A daughter of Palace Malice who is stalking closer. Look for her rolling at the top of the lane in high gear.

 

Race #9 – The G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile – 1 1/16 – 7:03 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Scabbard / #1 – Dennis’ Moment / #6 – Eight Rings

#5 Scabbard is a son of More Than Ready for trainer Eddie Kenneally and Mike Smith. He was forced to steady last out and rallied strongly with a promising late kick. There is plenty of speed in here to set up a late runner from the back of the pack. Look for a square price. #1 Dennis’ Moment is a son of Tiznow for Dale Romans and Irad Ortiz. He is looking for 3 in a row and was impressive winning the G3 Iroquois. A versatile runner who could make this a big win for Team Romans. He’ll take a ton of money given all the hype.  #6 Eight Rings comes in for Bob Baffert and Johnny V. Impressive winner of the G1 American Pharoah and he’ll be winging it on the lead. If left alone he could be a handful turning for home.

 

Continuing to prepare for the Breeders Cup

Now that you have watched your replays and getting some opinions on horses to pay special attention to either bet or bet against on your own, begin the next step. Start looking at other resources to get the extra info you may need.

Part II: More preparing for the Cup

Good and bad information. Step one understand the source you are getting this info from. Some information that is given out is simply an opinion. For example “Horse A should really take to the Santa Anita surface.” Why does this person think that, is it breeding, is it because he saw a race at another track with a similar surface or did the trainer mention to him that the training sessions have been good. I would only take that above statement if it was the last source.

At this point I wouldn’t listen to anyone’s selections. We know all the horses entered but what happens if one of them isn’t entered or scratched. Another speed horse doesn’t enter or gets scratched and now there is no pace to run it. Completely changes the race shape.

What I would look at is how the horses got to where they are at now. Some horses the big race was simply to win the previous race and get in, horse would be fully cranked. McKinzie, I am not sure if the horse was or was not fully cranked for his last race, but McKinzie didn’t need to win and get in.

There are many proven trends that show which horses do well at the Breeders Cup by going in certain races and which ones struggle. Get to know those trends. There is lots of information you can find about that. I follow the trends like this, a favourite should have strong trends before I would consider them. A longshot with a good return I won’t disregard the horse as much, the horse is a longshot for a reason, there are always a few holes in them somewhere.

Only one week to go, don’t get left behind in the research.

Continue to Prepare for the Breeders Cup

Now that you have watched your replays and getting some opinions on horses to pay special attention to either bet or bet against on your own, begin the next step. Start looking at other resources to get the extra info you may need.

Part II: More preparing for the Cup

Good and bad information. Step one understand the source you are getting this info from. Some information that is given out is simply an opinion. For example “Horse A should really take to the Santa Anita surface.” Why does this person think that, is it breeding, is it because he saw a race at another track with a similar surface or did the trainer mention to him that the training sessions have been good. I would only take that above statement if it was the last source.

At this point I wouldn’t listen to anyone’s selections. We know all the horses entered but what happens if one of them isn’t entered or scratched. Another speed horse doesn’t enter or gets scratched and now there is no pace to run it. Completely changes the race shape.

What I would look at is how the horses got to where they are at now. Some horses the big race was simply to win the previous race and get in, horse would be fully cranked. McKinzie, I am not sure if the horse was or was not fully cranked for his last race, but McKinzie didn’t need to win and get in.

There are many proven trends that show which horses do well at the Breeders Cup by going in certain races and which ones struggle. Get to know those trends. There is lots of information you can find about that. I follow the trends like this, a favourite should have strong trends before I would consider them. A longshot with a good return I won’t disregard the horse as much, the horse is a longshot for a reason, there are always a few holes in them somewhere.

Only one week to go, don’t get left behind in the research.

BetPTC.com Stakes Preview – Oct. 19

BetPTC.com / Weekend Stakes Preview

by: Ed Meyer

Keeneland

Race #9 – The G2 Raven Run – 7f – 5:30 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Royal Charlotte / #8 – First Star / #6 – Restless Rider

#1 Royal Charlotte is a daughter of Cairo Prince for Chad Brown with Tyler Gaffalione in the irons. She’s been away for 49 days and is 1 for 1 ITM at Keeneland. Her only loss was to Covfefe who is BC bound and Brown is rolling at the meet winning 32%. Her victory in the G2 Prioress was impressive and I’m looking for a quick break from the rail. #8 First Star is a daughter of First Dude for Ron Ellis and Drayden Van Dyke. She is 2 for 2 and Ellis doesn’t ship back this way much, but when he does it is usually for a good reason. She steps up in class and should stalk just off the lead. #6 Restless Rider comes in for Ken McPeek with B.J. Hernandez in the irons. She’s been off 5 months since the Oaks and sports some sharp works coming into the race. I’m looking for an up close stalking trip and pick up the pieces if the pace falls apart.

 

Belmont

Race#5 – The Empire Classic – 1 1/8 – 2:32 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 – Mr. Buff / #3 – Pat On the Back / #2 – Dynamax Prime

#4 Mr. Buff is a speedster from the John Kimmel barn with Junior Alvarado in the saddle. Exits the G1 Woodward coming off a 49 day layoff. He sports plenty of speed and Alvarado can be dangerous on the lead. #3 Pat On the Back is a son of Congrats making a 3rd off the layoff move for Jeremiah Englehart. Impressive winner of the G2 Kelso and drops back down in class and faces New York breds again. He’s a mid pack stalker who is 11 for 11 ITM over the Belmont oval. #2 Dynamax is a son of Bluegrass Cat who is 7 for 9 ITM at Belmont. Manny Franco and Rob Atras team up and they have 2 wins from 3 starts the past two weeks. He’s a closer and should come motoring late in the lane.

 

Race #10 Empire Distaff – 1 mile – 5:20 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #1- Newly Minted / #10 – Ratajkowski / #9 – Midnight Disguise

#1 Newly Minted comes in for Linda Rice and Jose Lezcano in the saddle. She’s been off 57 days and is 1 for 1 at Belmont. She’s a speedster from the rail and owns a bullet work coming into the race. Lezcano wins 19% for Rice and fits her like a glove. #10 Ratajkwoski is a speedball daughter of Drosselmeyer for Brian Lynch and Jose Ortiz. She seeks her 3rd straight win and 3 for 3 ITM over the course. She steps up in class and Ortiz wins 20% with early runners. #9 – Midnight Disguise is a daughter of Midnight Lute for Linda Rice. Joel Rosario has the call and she’s 3 for 3 ITM at Belmont coming off a 4 month layoff. She’ll come running late and with a field full of speed she could upset the apple cart.

 

What you should be doing now to prepare for the Breeders Cup

by Glen S., guest post for BetPTC.com

The Breeders Cup is the best event in horse racing for the year round handicapper to hit the big one. The two days are in the advantage of the horse players that knows the game. BUT if you are like all the other handicappers and do not prepare, then there is simply no advantage for you. So if you do not want to be like the others or the ones that just play the races a few times a year, keep reading.

The Breeders’ Cup is Nov. 1-2, 2019 at Santa Anita, the Great Race Place.

How can I start to prepare so early, you ask? There are list of the main contenders throughout the various websites and many sites, including th eDRF that have the expected entries. Print them off and start watching REPLAYS and more replays. The more you watch now, the less time you need later. Betptc.com has one of the best replay functions on the website, so why not take full advantage of it.

What to look for in a replay and what to take notes on:
-Was the horse compromised in the race, troubled trip, wide, no pace to run at, caught in a duel?

-Do not forget to make notes that might make the horse look better, lone speed, big pace to run at, perfect trip, etc.

When watching the replays, you do not need to know who the horse will be running against in the future.  It just gives you more info on the horse that many won’t take the time to see. Also if the horse is running against other horses in the upcoming race you will see who is better based on the replay. Sometimes who beats who doesn’t tell the whole story, this is when you can hit that home run.

Monday Oct 21st is when the pre entries close and I would expect by Wednesday Oct 23rd you will be able to get a good idea of who is in. Now you can start figuring out the potential of each horse. I would avoid figuring out race shape but decide if the horse is a need-the-lead horse or a closer that needs pace to run at.

Monday Oct. 28th is when the post position draw is; I would expect by that evening you will be able to find what each race would look at. NOW start to figure out race shape.

Why prep now? The obvious reason, as mentioned, is get ahead of the rest and avoid so much work later. But even more importantly, avoid getting swayed but the media and all the hype. Let you be the judge first as to how talented you think the horse is and then listen to the others.

BetPTC.com Graded Stakes Preview – Oct. 12

BetPTC.com / Weekend Stakes Preview 

by: Ed Meyer

Woodbine

Race #7 – The G2 Nearctic – 6f on the turf – 4:30 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #6 – Blind Ambition / #4 – Reconfigure / #1 – Admiralty Pier

 

#6 Blind Ambition is a son of Tapit for Mark Casse and Eurico Da Silva in the irons. He makes his 2nd start of the year and is 1 for 1 over the Woodbine oval. Da Silva is winning 20% on the turf and should have him forwardly placed from the gate break. #4 Reconfigure is a son of Lemon Drop Kid for trainer Robert Tiller. The barn wins 26% with graded stakes and is a horse for the course going 5 for 5 ITM. His early speed should have him in striking position when they make the turn for home. #1 Admiralty Pier is a son of English Channel for the Barbara Minshall barn. He is making a big drop in class and the barn wins 26% going from a route to a sprint. Rafael Hernandez should have in mid flight waiting to make a move at the top of the lane.

 

Race #8 – The G1 E.P. Taylor – 1 1/4 on the turf – 5:05 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #8 – Starship Jubilee / #7 – Imperial Charm / #4 – Si Que Es Buena

 

#8 Starship Jubilee hails from the Kevin Attard barn with Luis Contreras in the saddle. The trainer wins 18% with graded stakes and was impressive winning the G2 Canadian last out. She is 8 for 12 ITM at Woodbine and should be in mid pack waiting to launch a bid. The added ground should be a bonus for his running style. #7 Imperial Charm is a daughter of Dubawi for trainer Simon Crisford. She gets Lasix and as she ships over from Longchamp. Andrea Atenzi makes the trip and this filly is bred to love the turf. Her dam Reem Three has 5 starters, 5 winners, and 5 turf winners to her credit. #4 Si Que Es Buena comes from the Graham Motion barn with Chris Landeros in the irons. She is a stout closer shipping in from Gulfstream and should come motoring down the lane.

 

Race #9 – The G-1 Canadian International – 1 1/2 on turf – 5:42 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 – Desert Encounter / #1 – Ziyad / #3 – Nessy

 

#4 Desert Encounter is a son of Halling from the David Simcock yard with Andrea Antenzi in the saddle. He is seeking his 4th in a row and is 1 for 1 over the course. He’s looking to make it two in a row in the race and should be launching a late bid. #1 Ziyad is a son of Rock of Gibraltar (IRE) with Maxime Guyon in the saddle. He is shipping in from France where he has been hitting on all cylinders. He is 13 for 16 ITM  on the green and his three races show promise for making the trip. #3 Nessy comes from the barn of Ian Wilkes with his son in law Chris Landeros in the irons. A solid closer who is making is the third effort off the shelf. The distance should be no problem and his effort in the G-1 Northern Dancer shows he could be sitting on a big effort.

Keeneland offer at BetPTC

BetPTC.com Graded Stakes Preview – Oct. 4-5th

BetPTC.com / Weekend Stakes Preview / Fall Stars Weekend 

by: Ed Meyer

Keeneland / Friday

Race #8 – The G2 Phoenix – 6f – 4:57 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #3 – Whitmore / #6 – Hog Creek Hustle / #7 – Promises Fulfilled

#3 Whitmore is from the Ron Moquette barn with Joel Rosario in the saddle. Been off for three months and has an affinity for Keeneland, being 2 for 2 ITM. He lost by a nose in last year’s edition and sports some sharp works to prepare. This closer has real upsides as he fires very strong off the layoff. #6 Hog Creek Hustle is a son of Overanalyze for Vickie Foley. Corey Lanerie in the irons and he fits this deep closer like a glove. I’ve been watching this guy since February in the G2 Risen Star. He is maturing very nicely. #7 Promises Fulfilled is a son of Shackleford for Dale Romans and Luis Saez has the mount. A speedy colt who will ensure an honest pace. Add in he is 2 for 2 at Kee and he’s hard to dismiss.

Race #9 – The G1 Alcibiades – 1 1/16 – 5:30 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #7 – Perfect Alibi / #4 – Alandra / #9 – Sequin

#7 Perfect Alibi comes from the Mark Casse barn and Jose Ortiz is the pilot. A daughter of Sky Mesa who is 3rd off the layoff seeking her 3rd in a row.  She exits the G1 Spinaway, exchanging bumps but drawing away late. She should be a bit closer and pounce on the far turn with a quick turn of foot. Ortiz wins 21% with closing type runners. #4 Alandra is a daughter of Blame for Shug McGaughey and Joel Rosario. A speedy filly who won her only start. The distance should be no problem and her dam Altesse is a perfect 3 for 3 with her progeny. #9 Sequin is making the turf to dirt switch coming from Kyd for trainer Wesley Ward. Tyler Gaffalione has the call and has two very good place efforts. Ward spots his runners well and to drop a maiden in here could get you a square price. Both efforts were beaten chalk attempts and Ward can bring them ready.

 

Keeneland / Saturday

Race #7 – The G2 Thoroughbred Club of America – 6f – 4:29 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #8 – Chalon / #3 – Spiced Perfection / #4 – Danuska’ My Girl

#8 Chalon is a daughter of Dialed In for Arnaud Delacour and Paco Lopez. 3rd time off the layoff and she is 3 for 3 ITM over the course. She missed by a nose last year in this race and should get a perfect stalking trip looking for payback. #3 Spiced Perfection comes from the barn of Peter Miller with Javier Castellano aboard. She’s been off 5 months working solid clips in the morning. The trainer wins 22% with sprinters and cuts back in distance to come calling late in the lane. #4 Danuska’s My Girl is a daughter of Shackleford for Jerry Hollendorfer and the turf master Flavien Prat winning 24% on the sod. She’s a speedy gal shipping in from the left coast. Prat taking the mount makes her dangerous on the lead.

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Race #8 – The G1 First Lady Stakes – 1 mile on the turf – 5:04 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #6 – Vasilika / #7 – Indian Blessing / #11 – Rushing Fall

#6 Vasilika comes from the Hollendorfer barn with Flavien Prat in the irons. She cuts back to a mile and can give plenty of grey hairs watching her come flying in the shadow of the wire. Her late kick is ultra impressive and the barn wins 21% making a 3rd off the layoff move. Prat will have her high gear turning for home. #7 Indian Blessing comes from the Ed Walker yard with Jamie Spencer in the saddle. Two back they shipped over from Germany and then came rolling late to be bested by a dirty nose in the G-2 Ballston Spa. Look for her silks in the final yards down the lane. #11 Rushing Fall is a speedy gal for Chad Brown and Javier Castellano teaming up. She’s been off for two months and been working a regular morning clip. Castellano wins 21% with speedsters and he’ll drop over from the outside post to find a comfy position to save some ground. If she can grab the lead around the far turn she could be very dangerous.

 

Race #9 – The G1 Breeders’ Futurity – 1 1/16 – 5:39 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #10 – Gouverneur Morris / #1 – Tapit It to Win / #2 – By Your Side

#10  Gouverneur Morris is a son of Constitution who wins 24% of his firsters. They won by nine handily at Saratoga and have been working lights out. He’s a stalking sort and look for Castellano to have him in the catbird seat by the halfway point. I’m looking for a strong late punch and a trip to the Breeders’ Cup. #1 Tapit It to Win is a son of Tapit for Mark Casse and Tyler Gaffalione. They switched from turf to dirt and he won like a good thing. His bullet work shows promise that all systems are go as they get added ground going two turns. #2 By Your Side is a son of Constituition for trainer Eddie Kennealy and Corey Lanerie. He was 2 for 2 and then caught a sloppy track in the G-1 Hopeful. Toss that race and you’ll see a colt give a game effort.

 

Race #10 – The G1 Shadwell Turfwell Mile – 1 mile on the turf – 6:15 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #12- Suedois / #6 – Admission Office / #4 – Valid Point.

#12 Suedois comes from the David O’Meara yard with Jamie Spencer aboard. He is 1 for 1 at Kee and took home $600k from that score in Lexington. This son of Le Harve (IRE) gets Lasix as he’ll be looking for his spot mid pack by the first turn. He’s game and Spencer is a world class rider. #6 Admission Office is a son of Point of Entry for Bryan Lynch and Jose Ortiz. He’s been off for 3 months and is a strong closer. He had a solid allowance win over the track and today is his test making another step up the class ladder. He was a beaten favorite last out and the barn comes back to score 22% looking to turn the tables. #4 Valid Point is a son of Scat Daddy for Chad Brown and Javier Castellano. Been away from the races 56 days and was ultra impressive winning the G-1 Secretariat.