Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – April 17th

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 4/17/2021

by: Ed Meyer

Keeneland

Race #9 – The G-2 Elkhorn – 1 1/2 on the turf – 5:30 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #10 – Red Knight / #2 – Say the Word / #7 – North Dakota

#10 Red Knight hails from the Bill Mott barn with James Graham in the saddle. He’s been away from the races for 4 months and Mott scores 16% with layoff runners. He is 4 for 5 ITM going the distance and two for two ITM over the oval. With the early speed keeping the pace manageable, look for this son of PurePrize to get involved when the fan out turning for home. #2 Say the Word is a late runner for trainer Phil D’Amato and the red hot Luis Saez in the irons. 2nd time off the shelf with a bullet work shows good signs, and Saez wins 19% with late runners turning for home. #7 North Dakota is a late runner for Shug McGaughey and exits the G1 Pegasus Turf at GP. He picks up John Velasquez and could complete your exotics with a lane run in the lane to brighten up trifecta and superfecta tickets. He beat the top choice in here and should be considered a player.

Oaklawn Park

Race #9 – The G-2 Oaklawn Hcp- 1 1/8 – 5:49 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #6-Owendale / #2- Express Train / #1 – Silver Slate

#6 Owendale comes from the Brad Cox barn with Florent Geroux in the saddle.  3rd off the layoff yields a 28% win clip for the barn and is 5 for 6 ITM going the distance. He’ll come running late and Geroux wins 30% with the connections. He was a beaten favorite last out and sports a bullet work coming into the race. #2 Express Train is a stalker coming from the John Sheriffs’ barn. They cut back in distance and take a class drop going in the starting gate. Juan Hernandez makes the trip to Hot Springs and has finished 2 for 2 ITM aboard this son of Union Rags. #1 Silver Slate is a son of Hard Spun for Steve Asmussen and Ricardo Santana going for his 5th straight win moving up in class. Drawing the rail and 2 for 2 with wins at OP make him hard to overlook.

Parx at betptc

Race #11 – The G-1Apple Blossom – 1 1/16 miles dirt – 7:09 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #6-Monmoy Girl / #2 – Swiss Skydiver / #3 -Letruska

#6 Monomoy Girl is making her second start of the year and looks to keep her winning record going for the Brad Cox barn. She is a versatile gal who can stalk or jump right to the front with a lack of pace. Florent Geroux fits her like a glove and will break close on the outside staying out of traffic. She should on the lead or just on the outside keeping the leader in sight. #2 Swiss Skydiver is a stalker as well and has faced Monomoy in the past. She gets a good post draw for Kenny McPeek and Robby Albarado. She is 1 for 1 at OP making her second start of the year.  #3 Letruska is a speedy daughter of Super Saver and should go right to the front to steal the race by slowing down the fractions under Irad Ortiz. She is game but will have her hands full trying to slow the pace down against the top two. Major player to complete exotics.

Parx at betptc

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – April 10th

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 4/10/2021

by: Ed Meyer

Keeneland Race #9 – The G-3 Lexington Stakes – 1 1/16 – 5:30 pm

BetPTC.com Selections – #2 – Swiftsure / #7 – Proxy / #5 – Unbridled Honor

#2 Swiftsure is a lightly raced son of Uncle Mo for Steve Asmussen with Irad Ortiz in the irons. He is 2 for 2 lifetime with one start in 2020 and 2021. He has a speedy style and with Ortiz in the saddle could very easily settle just off the speed. His dam Island Saint is stakes placed and has one starter with one winner to her credit. Ortiz wins 24% with early type runners and should be in the catbird seat turning for home in the short stretch. #7 Proxy is a speedy son of Pulpit for Mike Stidham and John Velasquez. He is 5 for 6 ITM and should flash good early foot. If you take a look at his PP’s you’ll see his best races were on Lasix. That is my only question keeping him out of the top spot; but with a bullet work, he’ll take plenty of action at the windows. Demand better than the morning line odds before making any decisions. #5 Unbridled Honor is a late runner for the Todd Pletcher barn with Julien Leparoux getting the nod. His last race in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby was better than it looked. He finished up strong and ships in from TBD where the Pletcher barn wins 24% with new surroundings. He may be blooming at the right time and the bullet work catches my attention over the deep Palm Beach course.

Race#10 – The G-1 Jenny Wiley – 1 1/16 on the turf – 6:03 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Micheline / #4 – Etoile / #2 – Tamahere

#1 Micheline hails from the Mike Stidham barn with red hot rider Luis Saez in the irons. She cuts back in distance and will be rolling late in the lane. Her victory in the G2 Hillsborough at TBD was strong last out and she is making her second start of the year with a bullet work to prepare. #4 Etoile is coming off a five month layoff for Chad Brown and Javier Castellano in the irons. Her first start of the year and should be closing late as she shortens in distance. Castellano wins 29% with Brown and shipping in off a long layoff fits Chad Brown well as he wins 30% with freshened runners. #2 Tamahere makes her first start of the year for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz. A late runner who has done well with shipping to the states. Ortiz is a very strong closing runner and wins 28% with his turf runners.

Oaklawn Park

Race #12 – The G-1 Arkansas Derby – 1 1/8 – 7:41 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Concert Tour / #3 – Hozier / #1  Super Stock

#5 Concert Tour hails from the Baffert barn with Joel Rosario in the irons. He is a perfect 3 for 3 and should be a major pace player. He won his only start at OP and has a bullet work to tighten the screws moving forward. Rosario has been riding very well wherever he hangs his tack and has a 57% win clip teaming up with Bob Baffert. #3 Hozier is a son of Pioneer of the Nile for Bob Baffert and Martin Garcia. He ran a game 2nd against the favorite in here and will be running late. The bullet work and added distance make him dangerous. #1 Super Stock is a mid pack stalker for Steve Asmussen. This is his 2nd start of the year and will be a factor in the exotics. They switch back to Ricardo Santana who is the Asmussen go to rider. The extra half furlong should help his causes drawing the rail and saving ground when the real running gets going.

Belterra Park at a Glimpse – 2021 Racing Season

Belterra Park in Ohio sits less than a 1/16th of a mile from the original site of historic River Downs. A dirt mile oval with a 6 1/2f chute and a 7/8th turf course showcases live racing excitement from April 29th – October 7th, 2021 with the first post of 12:35 pm. The backdrop of the Ohio River and rolling hills of Kentucky make this oval a picturesque gem of Thoroughbred racing.

Here’s are some helpful tools that will give you an idea of what to look for, and how to watch and wager on the Belterra Park races.

 

Dirt and Turf 

Belterra Park has a one mile oval that plays kind to early speed especially during the dog days of summer. If there has been any rain in the forecast the night before or during the day, the track plays kind to stalkers and closing types. You’ll want to pay attention to announcements and updates on track conditions.

The turf has some tight turns but offers plenty of excitement as they cut the corner and turn for home on the sod. The grass plays kind to closers overall. You’ll see runners make a move into the far turn and swing out for the drive to the wire.

 

Top Riders

John McKee is a talented rider who excels on speed and closers equally well. He was the leading rider in 2020 and won at a 24% win clip on the dirt and 13% on the greensward. He is 45% ITM with favorites at Belterra.

Perry Ouzts will turn 67 years young this year and is the 6th leading rider in history. A speed riding machine that always needs to be factored into your wagers. In 2020, he won 19% on the dirt and 21% on the grass. Overall, he is 29% ITM with an average win payoff of $8.50.

Joe Ramos is a versatile young rider who shipped over from Kentucky last year and scored 21% on the dirt and 13% on the grass. His average win payoff was $9.50.

 

Riders to Watch This Meet

Gerardo Corrales is a talented young rider who is next up on the radar for jockeys taking their game to the next level. He has been riding at Turfway Park and owns a 23% win clip and 46% ITM overall.

Sonny Leon has been doing extremely well wherever he hangs his tack. I see him making an immediate impact on the rider standings from his first mount. He is winning at a 20% clip this year and 55% ITM.

David Cabrera ships in for agent Jose Santos and scores a 13% win clip and 41% ITM. It may take a little time to gain traction to build business, but he should be fine by the first month into the meet.

 

Trainers

Larry Smith was the leading trainer of 2020 and was winning at a 17% win clip on the dirt. When he teams up with his go to rider Perry Ouzts, good things are bound to happen.

Tim Hamm is making his presence felt everywhere he saddles a horse.  He could be at Belterra today and Saratoga the next day. Anytime you see a Hamm horse coming to the paddock it deserves a good hard look before wagering. Last year he won 18% on the dirt and 31% on the greensward.

Susan Anderson is currently racing in Kentucky and must be respected when bringing a horse to the paddock. Last year she won 25% on the dirt and 8% on the turf. You’ll get good value as her average win payoff was $9.60.

 

Trainers to Watch

Wesley Ward when he ships over to Belterra Park. Thom Drury is always dangerous and deserves extra consideration when riding John McKee. Eric Reed won 14% on the dirt and 20% on the turf last year from a small sampling. Keep your eyes peeled for Ron Kahles who won 23% from 40 starts last year with an average win payoff of $10.00. Michael Evans II started heating up in 2020. James Chapman is starting to rebuild his stock ready to score in Ohio.

 

Stakes Races / Daily Racing

For the 2021 season, there are 15 stakes featuring the Best of Ohio series on May 28th, featuring five $100,000 stakes races going to post. 

Daily racing takes place Tuesday – Friday with the first post of 12:35pm and eight live races. The only exception is during the Triple Crown where racing will be conducted Wednesday – Saturday.

Racing in the Cincinnati area has a rich history. From Coney Island race track in the 1920s to historic River Downs. Belterra Park is proud to continue the long standing history of Thoroughbred racing in the Cincinnati area.

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – April 3rd

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 4/3/2021

by: Ed Meyer

Aqueduct

Race #10 – The G-2 Wood Memorial – 1 1/8 miles dirt – 5:58pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Crowded Trade / #4 – Risk Taking / #6 – Prevalence

#2 Crowded Trade hails from the Chad Brown with Eric Cancel in the irons. He’s a late runner and just missed in the G3 Gotham after bobbling at the start. Brown wins 48% 2nd time going a route and a few solid works leading up to the race. Look for a late run as they near the quarter pole. #4 Risk Taking goes to post for Chad Brown with a perfect 2 for 2 over the track with wins. I liked his effort winning the G3 Withers going 9f and with Irad Ortiz in the saddle look for a strong late kick as he has won twice going the distance. Ortiz wins 31% with his route runners. #6 Prevalence has good speed from the Brendan Walsh barn shipping up from GP. Tyler Gaffalione has the call and I’m looking for a quick break to be near the front of the pack. He is a perfect two for two and looks to keep his record intact moving up the class ladder off a bullet work.

Keeneland

Race #9 – The G-1 Ashland – 1 1/16 miles dirt – 5:30 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Malathaat / #3 – Simply Ravishing / #2 – Pass the Champagne

#5 Malathaat goes to post for Todd Pletcher and Joel Rosario. She is the daughter of Curlin who is a perfect 3 for 3 lifetime. She is cutting back from 9f and should relish a perfect stalking trip. She has been away for 90 days and Pletcher wins 28% with layoff runners. #3 Simply Ravishing is a stalking type runner and gets Luis Saez back in the saddle for Kenny McPeek. This is her 1st start of 2021 and was the winner of the G1 Alcibiades last year at KEE. Look for a closeup trip in the hands of Saez. #2 Pass the Champagne is a deep closer for George Weaver and Javier Castellano. This is a big jump in class and was impressive in victory last out. Her dam Champagne Taste has 7 starters with 7 winners to her credit.

Race #11 – The G-2 Bluegrass Stakes – 1 1/8 miles dirt – 6:35 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 – Essential Quality / #5 – Rombauer / #3 – Highly Motivated

#4 Essential Quality is a son of Tapit from the Brad Cox barn. He is a perfect 4 for 4 lifetime and makes his 2nd start of the 2021 racing season. Luis Saez is the pilot and has been aboard for three of his four lifetime wins. 2nd time off a layoff yields the Cox barn a 28% win clip. Look for a close stalking trip keeping an eye on the pace. #5 Rombauer was nominated to the Jeff Ruby but opted for a trip over the KEE dirt. He is a deep closer and is maturing with every start. His closing win in the El Camino Real was impressive for trainer Mike McCarthy and they switch to high percentage money rider Florent Geroux. The Ruby was a 100 point Derby race but they opted to get back to the dirt. He ran a decent effort in the BC Juvenile. He’s been off for 49 days, but the barn scores 19% with layoff runners. #3 Highly Motivated hails from the Chad Brown barn with Javier Castellano. The G3 Gotham was a very good prep for good things ahead and Castellano has been aboard this closer every time. The added distance should fit his needs well.

Santa Anita

Race#6 – The G-2 Santa Anita Oaks – 1 1/16 miles dirt – 5:30 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Beautiful Gift / #3 – Soothsay / #1 – Moraz

#5 Beautiful Gift hails from the Bob Baffert barn with John Velasquez in the saddle. Her victory in the G3 Santa Ysabell was a top display of a stalker with patience. She is 2 for 2 ITM at SA and Johnny V looks for his 2nd straight win. #3 Soothsay just broke her maiden for Richard Mandella and Flavien Prat. She stretches out to a distance for the first time, and her morning works signal good things moving forward. #1 Moraz draws the golden rail under Umberto Rispoli for Mike McCarthy. The rail is winning at 24%, and she is 3 for 3 ITM over the course. Rispoli is a hot rider who is 11 for 15 ITM the past seven days. Look for a stalking trip saving ground along the rail.

Race #8 – The G-1 Santa Anita Derby – 1 1/8 miles dirt – 6:30 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / # 2 – Dream Shake / #7 – Medina Spirit / #3 – Rock Your World

#2 Dream Shake hails from the Peter Eurton barn with Flavien Prat in the irons. he had an impressive maiden win sprinting, but the extra distance may have caught him a little flat footed. He sports some sparkling works and this lightly raced colt may be ready to move forward. Prat wins 38% with Eurton and 23% with closers. #7 Medina Spirit is a speedster from the Bob Baffert barn. John Velasquez in the saddle and they bring a tough game every time they hit the track. Baffert is winning 30% at the meet and could be dangerous with added distance if left alone on the lead. #3 Rock Your World is a stalker from the John Sadler barn. They are a perfect 2 for 2, but both wins were on the grass. Making the turf to dirt change yields Sadler a 22% win clip. This son of Candy Ride should be right off the speed and looks to up his game against this level of competition. Sadler making the move from turf to dirt in G1 competition leaves me feeling he likes what he sees in his runner.

 

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – March 27

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 3/27/2021

by: Ed Meyer

Gulfstream Park

Race #10 – The G-2 Pan American – 1 1/2 on the turf – 4:09 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #3 – Sadler’s Joy / #2 – Temple  / #7 – Moon Over Miami

#3 Sadler’s Joy is a son of Kitten’s Joy for Thom Albertrani and Jose Ortiz in the saddle. He’s been off for two months and the barn scores at a 12% win clip with fresh legs. He is 4 for 7 ITM at GP and closed well last out coming up a bit short down the lane. Ortiz wins 23% with his turf closers. #2 Temple makes his 3rd off the layoff move for Mike Maker with Irad Ortiz in the irons. This son of Temple City should be mid pack and Irad wins 26% with stalking type closers. He loves GP going 10 for 11 ITM over the course. #7 Moon Over Miami hails from the Bill Mott barn with Junior Alvarado in the saddle.  2nd time off the layoff, and Mott wins 17% on this move. The rider is 19 for 34 ITM the past week.

Race #12 – The G-2 Gulfstream Oaks – 1 1/16 – 5:17 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #3 – Crazy Beautiful / #6 – Millefeuille / #1 – Con Lima

#3 Crazy Beautiful is a daughter of Liam’s Map for Ken McPeek and Jose Ortiz. This is her 2nd off the layoff and eligible to improve after being reluctant to load last out. She was 4 wide moving late last out and should be mid pack in high gear turning for home. #6 Millefeuille is a daughter of Curlin making her 2nd start of the year. Add in her bullet work at Payson and trainer Bill Mott looks to keep her moving forward in 2021. She was shuffled back at the start last out and looks prime to get back on track.  #1 Con Lima is a speedy filly for Todd Pletcher who is 3 for 3 ITM over the course. She makes the turf to dirt switch and wins 25% on the surface move. Irad Ortiz in the driver’s seat and should break quickly.

Race #14 – The G-1 Florida Derby – 1 1/8 – 6:40 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Known Agenda / #7 – Greatest Honor / #10 – Spielberg

#5 Known Agenda is a son of Curlin for Todd Pletcher with Irad Ortiz in the irons. He won impressively by 11 lengths last out as prep and looks to make his 3rd off the layoff move where the barn wins 23%. The distance should fit his style and look for a solid late run. #7 Greatest Honor is a son of Tapit 6 for 6 ITM who is a perfect 3 for 3 at GP. Known Agenda beat him going 9f, and should make a sharp move on the far turn for Shug McCaughey and Jose Ortiz. He is 6 for 6 ITM at the track seeking his 4th straight win. #10 Spielberg is a late runner for Bob Baffert with Javier Castellano in the saddle. He ships in from OP and Baffert wins 30% with his shippers. He has sharp works and switches riders to Castellano.

 

Turfway Park

Race #11 – The G-3 Jeff Ruby Steaks – 1 1/8 – 6:25 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Hush of a Storm / #7 – Tarantino / #10 – Gretzky the Great

#2 Hush of a Storm hails from the William Morey barn with Santiago Gonzalez in the irons. 2nd off a layoff for this late runner and a perfect 3 for 3 at TP. The winner of the John Battaglia has won twice without Lasix and his dam Hush Now has 1 starter and 1 winner to her credit. #7 Tarantino is a stalker from the Rudy Brisset barn with Florent Geroux in the saddle. 3rd off the layoff and should show good early foot from the break. He ships in from GP from the G2 Fountain of Youth and should be forwardly placed when they spring the latch. #10 Gretzky the Great makes his 2nd off the layoff as the beaten chalk in the Battaglia. Mark Casse runners win 24% making the comeback off the beaten chalk angle. Look for speed from the Casse runner with Chris Landeros in the saddle.

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – March 20

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 3/20/2021

by: Ed Meyer

Fair Grounds

Race #11 – The New Orleans Classic – 1 1/8 – 5:12 pm

**** Kicks off the $750,000 Pick-Four ****

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Owendale / #1 – Roadster / #3 – Olliemyboy

#2  Owendale makes his 2nd start off the layoff for Brad Cox who scores at a 27% win clip on this move. He is 2 for 3 ITM at FG and gets added distance where he is 4 for 5 ITM. A strong closer in the hands of Florent Geroux should be effective in a slow pace projected race where he’ll come calling at the top of the lane. #1 Roadster comes off a one year layoff for Mike Stidham and John Velasquez. He does well coming in fresh and gets the acid test today. He should be placed mid pack and looks to kick off the year with a solid stalking trip. #3 Olliemyboy makes his 3rd start off the layoff for Norm Casse and Irad Ortiz. This is a big jump in class and owns a perfect 2 for 2 at FG. Ortiz is a great finishing rider and he’ll be looking to come flying late in the lane.

Race #12 – The G-2 Muniz Memorial – 1 1/8 on the turf – 5:43 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Colonel Liam / #8 -Spooky Channel / #1 – Factor This

#5 Colonel Liam hails from the Pletcher barn with Irad Ortiz in the irons. They win 31% as a team and this late runner comes off a win in the Pegasus Cup Turf at GP. He gets Lasix added and turns back in distance. Look for a strong late punch under Ortiz who wins 26% with late running turf horses. #8 Spooky Channel is a late runner taking a hike up the class ladder after scoring in the G3 Connelly at Sam Houston. Florent Geroux in the saddle and his patient style is a plus off a 48 day layoff. #1 Factor This is a speedy runner from the Brad Cox barn drawing the rail under Shaun Bridgmohan who wins 20% with early style runners. 2nd start off the shelf and was beaten chalk last out. He is 3 for 4 ITM at FG and will jump quickly at the break.

Race  #13 – The G-2 FG Oaks – 1 1/16 – 6:14 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #6 – Clairiere / #8 – Travel Column / #4 – Li’l Tootsie

#6 Clairiere is a late running daughter of Curlin for Steve Asmussen with Joe Talamo aboard. She turned back Travel Column last out in a very impressive performance with a flawless ride. She is 3 for 3 going this distance and owns some solid morning works moving forward. Joe Talamo stays aboard and should give another good account of this filly. #8 Travel Column is a late runner for the Brad Cox barn with Florent Geroux in the driver’s seat. This is her second start of the year and should improve to make the battle go to round number two for the morning line favorites. Geroux fits like a glove and sports some good morning works. #4 Li’l Tootsie is a lightly raced closer for the Thom Amoss barn with Luis Saez in the irons. She had an impressive maiden win, and her last effort showed she may be special moving forward.

Race #14 – The G-2 – Louisiana Derby – 1 3/16 – 6:44 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #6 – Mandaloun / #4 – Proxy / #3 – Run Classic

#6 Mandaloun is a mid pack stalker who can patiently wait and pounce for the Brad Cox barn with Florent Geroux in the saddle. He is 2 for 2 ITM at FG and was impressive winning the G2 Risen Star. Geroux wins 26% with Cox and should be just off the leaders. The works are sharp and he should be a big part of the Derby trail with a top effort. #4 Proxy should be a major pace player for Mike Stidham and Johnny Velasquez. This son of Tapit is maturing and looks to stamp his ticket to Louisville. #3 Run Classic is a lightly raced son of Runhappy and makes the big jump up the class ladder. She hails from the Bret Calhoun barn with B.J. Hernandez in the saddle. That was an impressive maiden win, but he’ll need to kick his game into high gear today. Use in your exotics at a solid price.

 

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – March 13

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 3/13/2021

by: Ed Meyer

Oaklawn Park

Race #5 – The G-2 Azeri – 1 1/16 – 3:03 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 – Getridofwhatailesu / #5 – Shedaresthedevil / #3 – Letruska

#4  Getridofwhatailesu has the services of Javier Castellano in the irons for Brad Cox. This daughter of Ghostzapper is 4 for 4 ITM over the OP strip and with rain predicted the entire weekend her win over a sealed sloppy track at OP may come in handy. She is stepping up in class for the acid test, but I think her affinity for the track and a soft surface may have her right in the picture. #5  Shedaresthedevil hails from the Brad Cox barn with Florent Geroux aboard. She cuts back from 9f as a beaten favorite in the G1 Spinster off a 5 month layoff. Cox scores 23% with layoff runners returning and been working over the deep FG oval. #3  Letruska is a speedy daughter of Super Saver who is 2 for 2 ITM at OP and will sport a quick turn of foot. She is 3 for 3 at the distance coming off a bullet work.

Race #11 – The G-2 Rebel – 1 1/16 miles dirt – 6:16 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 – Get Her Number/# 7 – Concert Tour / #6 – Keepmeinmind

#4 – Get Her Number is a son of Dialed In for Peter Miller shipping in from California off a win in the G1 American Pharoah. He has been away for 5 months and Castellano picking up the mount is a plus. he shows some solid works and coming in with fresh legs may be just what the doctor ordered. # 7  Concert Tour hails from the Bob Baffert barn and is a perfect 2 for 2.  Joel Rosario stays aboard fresh off a win in the G2 San Vincente. He ships in from SA and Baffert wins 30% with his shippers. His bullet work of 1:11.2 is pretty impressive. #6  Keepmeinmind is a deep closer for the red hot Robertino Diodoro barn winning 29% at the meet. He’s been off for three months, but if you look at his past efforts at CD and KEE in the Breeders’ Cup you can see plenty of back class. David Cohen has the call and the barn comes back to score 26% off a last race win.

Santa Anita

Race #8 – The G-1 Beholder – 1 mile – 7:20 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #3 – Harvest Moon / #1 – Swiss Skydiver / #6 – As Time Goes By

#3  Harvest Moon is a daughter of Uncle Mo coming off a 4 month layoff for Simon Callaghan. She is a perfect 3 for 3 going a mile and has the services of Flavien Prat. She will lay just off the pace and make the winning move before the quarter pole. Prat fits her well and he wins 28% with stalkers. #1  Swiss Skydiver comes in for Ken McPeek with Robby Albarado making the trip. She has been off for four months and two back schooled the boys in the G1 Preakness. She’ll be right off the leader waiting to pounce and won the SA Oaks last year. #6  As Time Goes By steps up in class off a 55 day rest.  This Baffert runner should be right on the pace and is 2 for 2 ITM at SA. Mike Smith in the saddle is a bonus making a class hike. I think she’ll be a player in exotics.

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – March 6

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 3/6/2021

by: Ed Meyer

Race #6 – The G-2 San Felipe – 1 1/16 miles dirt – 5:30 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Life is Good / #3 – Medina Spirit / #7 – Roman Centurian

#1 Life is Good is a speedster from the Bob Baffert barn with Mike Smith in the saddle. Been off for two months and the barn comes back to score 31% with fresh legs. Smith wins 30% with speed and this son of Into Mischief should improve off the layoff. #3 Medina Spirit is another speedy runner from the Baffert barn and has John Velasquez in the saddle. He should be just off the leader and make a move into the far turn. His 2 bullet works catch your attention. #7 Roman Centurian is a deep closer for Simon Callaghan and has faced some of the top runners in here. This son of Empire Maker will come calling late at a square price.

 

Race #8 – The G-2 San Carlos –  7f – 6:30 pm 

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Storm the Court / #7 – Exaulted / # 8 – Loud Mouth

#1 Storm the Court hails from the Peter Eurton barn with Johnny V in the irons. He makes the turf to dirt switch and a big cut back in distance. He should show close up speed on the turnback and will be a factor with the rail draw winning at 31%. #7 Exaulted is a let runner from the Eurton barn making his 2nd start off the layoff. He is 4 for 4 ITM over the course with Mike Smith aboard. #8 Loud Mouth is a solid stalker making a move up the class ladder. Should make a solid move on the far turn and shoot to complete your exotics.

3 Things to Look for when a new race meet opens up.

Race #9 – The G-1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile – 1 mile on the turf – 7:00 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #6 – Flavius / #1 – Smooth LIke Straight / #2  – Hit the Road

#6 Flavius is a late runner making his first start of 2021 for Chad Brown with Flavien Prat aboard. His dam Starformer has 3 starts, 3 wins, and 3 turf wins to her credit. Prat wins 22% with his late runners on the sod and this son of War Front has some nice works to build upon. #1 Smooth Like Straight is a stalker for Mike McCarthy and 5 for 6 ITM over the course. He draws the rail with Umberto Rispoli and he wins 21% with his up close runners on the green. This is his 1st start of 2021. #2 Hit the Road is a late runner with Florent Geroux aboard for Dan Blacker. He is seeking his 4th straight win and steps up in class. Geroux wins 20% with late running turf horses.

Get 12% back on this track in March at betptc.com

Race #10 – The G-1 Santa Anita Handicap – 1 1/4 miles dirt – 7:30 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 -Maxfield / #6 – Idol / #1 – Independence Hall

#2 Maxfield is a stalker under Florent Geroux for Brendan Walsh. He is a perfect 5 for 5 and looks to be the major danger. Geroux is seeking his 3rd straight win and this son of Street Sense has the goods. His last race was impressive coming off a beat slow at the break but recovered very professionally. #6 Idol is a son of Curlin For Richard Baltas and always brings his best. Joel Rosario in the irons and should be running late. Maybe the added ground will show a new dimension as Rosario wins 21% with routers. #1 Independence Hall is a son of Constitution for Mike McCarthy. He has been knocking heads with some of the tough guys of racing and gets a rail draw under Flavien Prat who knows the course winning 28% with early stalkers. His bullet work has to give you a good reason to use in exotics.

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – Feb. 27

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 2/27/2021

by: Ed Meyer

Gulfstream Park

Race #4 – The G-2 Mac Diarmida – 1 3/8 on the turf – 12:55 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Temple / #7 – Aquaphobia / #3 – Tide of the Sea

#1 Temple is a fast closing son of Temple City who is making his 2nd off the layoff . Irad Ortiz aboard for Mike Maker and they score 28% as a team.  He’s a horse for the course going 10 for 10 ITM over the GP oval. He will be rolling late down the lane. #7 Aquaphobia is a late runner in the hands of Jose Ortiz who wins 19% with late runners on the green. This is his 2nd start of the year and Mike Maker wins 20% second off the layoff. They score 27% as a team going to post. #3 Tide of the Sea is a speedy son of English Channel for Mike Maker and Tyler Gaffalione. He should provide plenty of early foot, and can be dangerous if left alone or set up the closers above.

Race#9 – The G-2 Gulfstream Mile – 1 mile – 3:27 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #4- Performer / #5 – Fearless / #6 – Avant Garde

#4 Performer is a stalking son of Speightstown for Shug McGaughey. He is 1 for 1 at GP and exits off a win where the barn scores 18% the next time out. Jose Ortiz in the saddle and he is a patient hand in the irons who wins 25% with the trainer. He is 3 for 3 ITM at the distance and should be a major factor. #5 Fearless is a fast closer for Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz who is one of the best finishing riders in the world. Ortiz wins 29% with routes and 23% with closing runners. This son of Ghostzapper is a perfect 2 for 2 at GP and Ortiz and Pletcher get their picture taken 27%as a team. He’ll come rolling on the far turn. #6 Avant Garde is a stalker in the hands of Javier Castellano. The runner loves GP going 7 for 7 ITM and should be a part of all of your gimmicks. 2nd start of the year and gets a big time rider change to the talented Castellano.

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Race#12 – The G-2 Davona Dale – 1 mile – 5:04 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 -Millefueille / #3 – Vequist / #6 – Crazy Beautiful

#5 Millefeuille is a stalking daughter of Curlin for Bill Mott and John Velasquez. I like she ran 9f as a baby and ran a very game race. She has been off for 2 months and working at Payson Park. I think we’ll see maturity and a close up run keeping the pace honest. Dangerous player. #3 Vequist is a daughter of Nyquist with Irad Ortiz in the driver’s seat for Robert Reid. She won the BC Juvenile Fillies and looks to kick off her 2021 campaign in a big way. #6 Crazy Beautiful hails from the Ken McPeek barn. He is patient with his babies and if you look over her last six races, five of which show promise. I’m looking for a solid effort and a run at the top of the lane.

Race#14 – The Fountain of Youth -1 1/16 – 6:10pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #8 – Greatest Honour / #2 -Prime Factor / #1 – Drain the Clock

#8 Greatest Honour hails from the Shug McGaughey barn with Jose Ortiz in the saddle. He is a closing of Tapit and will be rolling late. He is a perfect 2 for 2 at GP and Ortiz wins 22% with late runners. The one to beat. #2 Prime Factor is a speedy son of Quality Road for Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz. He wins 28% with speed runners in his grasp and has an ultra patient style of allowing his runners to settle. Lightly raced and was heavily bet last out against the favorite in this race. Look for improvement 2nd off the layoff. #1 Drain the Clock is an early runner for Saffie Joseph and Edgard Zayas. He draws the rail which is winning at 24% and the rider and trainer win 29% as a team. Look for a quick break and an effort to steal the race down the backstretch.

What to look for new meets starting up

A new meet starting up adds an extra dimension to handicapping these races, do some research and you will be ahead of the curve. So what are a few things to look for in the first week of racing, you ask?

Let’s begin with the trainers:
-Understand the difference between the local trainers and the trainers that ship from track to track
-The locals using have had longer layoffs and may need a start or two
-The trainers that move from track to track usually have a plan and that is “Win Early”
-Find those hot trainers quickly because after a week or so, everyone else jumps on board
-Here is where you take advantage of the public that doesn’t follow or do the research early. After about a month
the trainer stats will have the shipped in trainers with a great record and the locals not so good. But remember, the
win early trainers that was their goal, locals in for the long haul.

Understanding where the horses are coming from
-It takes a bit of experience but ask around or even reply to this blog and I will help you out. What I mean by this, the level of
competition varies greatly from the A, B and C tracks in North America. Get to know them.
-For example a horse coming from Santa Anita and now racing at Fonner park, will not look good on form. But what to
look for is, did the horse show speed. The speed horses from top track are far better bets than the plotters that just
ran at the back. Big difference from a horse showing lots of early speed and finishing last than a plotter that passes one or
two late.

Last tip, know the horse
-Is the horse ready to run today, many works coming in
-Is the horse at the right distance or a prep for a race coming in.
-Right surface, now on dirt, did run on turf or poly

After you have done your above  research, made your notes, you still need to look at the race shape on the other horses in the race. A little more work, but it certainly can pay off in the end.

Good racing