Winx’ Winning Streak and Picks for Friday Night, 2/24/2017

WINX Returns To The Races Tonight at 12:30 Eastern (Early Saturday Morning) in race 7B (Randwick)

Who is Winx?  Where does she race?  Winx is a 5 year old Australian grass race mare that was bred and runs primarily in New South Wales, near Sydney.  She has won 14 races in a row, entirely in Group 1 and Group 2 company.  Over this streak (nearly two years long) she has earned approximately USD $6.5 million in earnings.  During the current streak she has won the W.S.Cox Plate (Australia’s version of the Breeders’ Cup Classic) twice.  International handicappers currently place Winx the second-best horse in the world, after Arrogate, with California Chrome’s retirement from racing, and the best grass runner in the world.

What is her best distance?  Her highest rated races have been in the two Cox Plates at a mile and a quarter, but she appears to be equally effective from 7 furlongs to a mile and a quarter.

What is her running style?  She doesn’t have great gate speed, but she gets out of the barriers OK and usually takes an early position in the back half of the field.  She can fly on the turn and NOBODY makes ground on her in the stretch.

Whom has she beaten?  This may be odd to say, but the horse she has repeatedly thumped, Hartnell, would be the star if Winx wasn’t around.  His speed figures and running lines are world class.  She also thumped Highland Reel by 5 lengths in the 2015 Cox Plate, and Highland Reel went on to run second second in the 2016 Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp near Paris, and won the 2016 Breeders Cup Turf at Santa Anita.  There really aren’t many other horses that can run with her in Australia.

Who are her human connections?  Like many Australian horses, Winx is owned in partnership with several owners.  Her trainer, Chris Waller, has been named champion trainer in Australia five times.  Her current Jockey (and the jockey for the streak) is Hugh Bowman.  Bowman is considered the best jockey in Australia by many and possibly one of the best 10 grass jockeys in the world.

How historic is the streak?  The incomparable Phar Lap won 14 in a row, all in races from a mile and a half to much longer, usually giving 10 to 20 pounds to his competitors under handicap conditions.  The record racing streak in Australia is 26 wins (all sprints) in a row by the fleet Black Caviar.  That streak ended when she was retired to become a broodmare.

Race 3B Australia (Randwick) Friday, February 24, 2017 3B VALE EDGAR BRITT SWEET EMBRACE ($200K) 10:00pm EST (9:00pm CST, 7:00pm PST) W, P, S, Ex, Qu, Tri, Super, Pick 3 (3B, 4B, 5B) 2yo F OPEN SW Group 2.  6 furlongs, Apprentices Cannot Claim.  Picks: 11-1

#11 Songlike (6/1) looked phenomenal in its trials and she’ll win a group race soon enough.  Maybe today is the day.  #1 Teaspoon (7/2) is a very well-bred undefeated stakes winner.  I am just concerned there will be a lot of pace pressure tonight, which will set it up for Songlike.

 

Race 4B Australia (Randwick) Friday, February 24, 2017.  SCHWEPPES SKYLINE STAKES ($200K) 10:35pm EST (9:35pm CST, 7:35pm PST) W, P, S, Ex, Qu, Tri, Super 2yo CG OPEN SW Group 2.  6 furlongs, Apprentices Cannot Claim.  Picks: 2-4

This is a prep very weak in quality for the Golden Slipper, which will come up in mid-March.  #2 Menari (2/1) is the only horse with any real talent in the field, and he drew the rail.  He is more of a grinder, so it’s conceivable he might get blocked for run in the stretch.  #4 Colesberg (18/1) appears to be as good as anyone else in the field and he’s a big price.  Colesberg’s trainer, David Payne, is known to be a a “miracle worker” with two year olds, and this one just might improve.

Graded Stakes Preview, Saturday, February 25th, 2017

An All-Graded Stakes Pick 4 Time at FG!

Suggested pick 4:  3,4/2,3,5/5,8,9/5,6,8,9,10 = $45

FG Race 8 (4:39 Eastern) The Mineshaft Handicap (Grade 3), 8.5 furlongs, 4up

Class:  Mo Tom (10-4-0-3, $603,526 in earnings)

Expected Pace:  Rise Up usually goes out pretty quick, he will have to be caught.

Consistency:  December Seven missed the break three races back, but has won his last two easily and he has never been out of the money (5-3-0-2).

BetPTC.com selections:

1st – #3 December Seven (8/1)   2nd – #4 Dalmore (6/1)   3rd – #1 Rise Up (10/1)

Note to self:  By the ML odds quoted for my selections I better punch in a few trifecta boxes!  DECEMBER SEVEN is all racehorse, he has a lot of upside and I would be surprised if he does not finish in the top two.  Let’s hope for that 8/1 win odds quote!  Dalmore was poorly ridden last time, there was not much speed in the race and for some reason Kent Desormeaux never got this guy involved.  Off his best Southern California races he’s a threat.  Rise Up will get the lead with this crew, but it’s a query if he can get the last sixteeneth.  Mo Tom and Eagle also have win chances, this is a pretty even race.

 

The Rachel Alexandra Is “For the Girls!”

FG Race 9 (5:06 Eastern) The Rachel Alexandra Stakes (Grade 2), 8.5 furlongs, 3yo F

Class:  Farrell (5-3-0-1, $241,357 in earnings)

Expected Pace:  Shane’s Girlfriend has Southern California sprint speed.

Consistency:  Valadorna is 4 for 4 hitting the exacta (4-2-2-0)

BetPTC.com selections:

1st – #2 Farrell (5/2)   2nd – #3 Shane’s Girlfriend (3/1)   3rd – #5 Valadorna (2/1)

GREAT race here.  I expect all of my top picks in this race will win a big race in 2017.  FARRELL just seems classier to me, she has a win over the track, she has enough speed to keep Shane’s Girlfriend honest, and enough speed to get “first run” on Valadorna.  Shane’s Girlfriend was 4/5 win odds AGAINST the Jerry Hollendorfer-trained (and recent Grade 1 romper) Unique Bella.  Ponder that one for a while.  Off her first two races she looked like any kind.  She’s definitely capable of a mild upset.  Valadorna hasn’t won a stakes yet, so anyone taking low odds on her in this field, in my mind, would be a mistake.  Also the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies form really hasn’t help up so far in 2017.

 

Looking For The Fair Grounds Handicap?  It’s On The Grass Course!

FG Race 10 (5:33 Eastern) The Fair Grounds Handicap (Grade 3, turf), 9.0 furlongs, 4up

Class:  Oscar Nominated (15-4-5-0, $704,195 in earnings)

Expected Pace:  Western Reserve is a tough older horse which a fair amount of gas.

Consistency:  Western Reserve (10-3-4-2), only once out of the money.

BetPTC.com selections:

1st – #9 Oscar Nominated (7/2)   2nd – #8 Western Reserve (7/2)  

3rd – #5 Granny’s Kitten (3/1)

OSCAR NOMINATED had a really tough assignment last time having to win a mile and a half race off an extended layoff.  She should be much tighter this weekend And we expect a top, top effort.  Western Reserve gets to face Granny’s Kitten on firm turf this weekend.  That might make a difference in the finish order.  Granny’s Kitten is the ideal kind of grass horse, one that can get an early position close to the speed, relax a bit during the run, then finish strongly.  We would recommend using all three horses in large pick 4 tickets.

 

Looking For A Star Three Year Old?  Maybe it Will Run in the RISEN STAR!

FG Race 11 (6:00 Eastern) The Risen Star (Grade 2,), 8.5 furlongs, 3yo

Class:  Mo Town (3-2-1-0, $243,600 in earnings)

Expected Pace:  Quick, it’s a big field of three year olds whose connections all really want to win.

Consistency:  Guest Suite (5-3-0-2) and/or Mo Town

BetPTC.com selections:

1st – #6 Guest Suite (6/1)   2nd – #10 Takeoff (10/1)   3rd – #9 Mo Town (7/2)

GUEST SUITE really impressed me last time.  Off a layoff, he had a fairly wide trip and drew off impressively.  The only sour note to the story was the payoff – most of the crowd was on it and he paid only $7.60 in an 11-horse field.  Was this result predictable?  I think looking at the entire history of Guest Suite’s form, and he’s faced some of the best.  In his first start he faced reliable/sprinter miler Wild Shot.  He then broke his maiden impressively going TWO TURNS at Keeneland (never easy).  Going back to one turn (probably not his ideal set up), he ran into Kentucky Derby co-favorite McCracken.  Then in a Mile N1x at Churchill Downs he crushed by over 6 lengths.  Then came the big win at Fair Grounds in the LeComte.  This is a serious racehorse.  The only negative is he has yet to run a Triple Digit BRIS speed figure.  But maybe this will be the weekend for that.

Takeoff strikes us as a real tough horse, kind of dominant, probably pushes the help around a little.  His last two “two turn races” have been really good and he’ll get first run on the closers this weekend.  He seems to be going the right way, and 10/1 on Casse and Leparoux usually leads to handicapping profit sooner or later.

Mo Town, at least for me, is hard to gauge.  On the pure numbers he should be 6/5 in this field – he tops the field in best speed figure, consistency, earnings per start, and he’s a Grade 2 winner.  The rub is the horse that ran behind him at Aqueduct, No Dozing, ran fifth behind McCracken at Tampa in the Sam F. Davis (and it wasn’t that close either).  Tampa is a quirky surface, so maybe Do Dozing had a really bad day.  But maybe No Dozing is just not a good three year old?  That puts Mo Town’s superiority into question.

 

 

BetPTC.com Horses to Watch – 2/20/17

Horses to Watch – Ed Meyer

The nation had warm weather where it’s cold, tremendous rain where there’s little precipitation, and we’re creeping closer to the first Saturday in May. – President’s Day was a superb day of wagering, and for horse players there’s nothing like a three day weekend of red-hot racing action. With that in mind, here’s some solid runners who deserve a good bet next out. – Best of luck from your friends at BetPTC.com. 

Gulfstream Park

2/18/17

Race #2 – #7 – Gran the Man – 5f. on the turf

Luis Saez in the saddle for Jason Servis (29%). This son of Grand Slam was making his 2nd effort off a two month layoff, and loves the turf going 4/4 ITM on the sod. He was forced to steady early after the break and this seem to stop his motion. He’ll rebound nicely with a better start and be a major player sprinting on the turf.

Race #6 -#4 – Sprindetti – 6f. on the main 

Solid filly looking to make it two-in-a-row lifetime and exited an impressive win in her maiden break at boxcar odds. She stumbled badly leaving the gate and was sandwiched by her foes. Let’s toss this race and look forward to her next out.

Race #9 – #5 – Take Your Guns – 1 mile on the main

1st time starter by Blame for the Chad Brown barn. He had his go-to rider Javier Castellano in the irons for his first start at the races. He put in a slight bid showing interest but didn’t get his diploma this day. The Chad Brown barn does very well with 2nd time runners and you can bet dollars to donuts he’ll have him ready to roll next up.

Race #12- #9 – Tricked Up – 1 mile on the turf

Joel Rosario for Chad Brown and they have been winning (38%) as a team the last few months. The son of Distorted Humor made his first start in 50 days, and was caught up in traffic for most of the race and tipped out three wide making a mild bid. He finished 6th and should give a much better effort next out.

Turfway Park

2/18/17

Race #3 – #4 – Forest Warrior – 5f  on the AW

Gabriel Lagunes aboard this son of Ready’s Image and came in 3rd off the shelf. He was a beaten favorite last out and broke slow on this day. He made a strong rally and went six wide getting second money for this effort.

Race #5 – #4 – Porter Street – 1 mile on the AW

Alonso Quinonez in the saddle for Wesley Ward. Son of Giant’s Causeway took the lead at the 1/4 pole and was bested down the lane after a furious drive. He’ll get his diploma very soon.

Friday Night Australian Racing, February 17, 2017

The Black Caviar Lightning Stakes (Down the straight, 5 furlongs – 1000m)  Flemington Race 8A (12:45 Eastern).  Track Condition “Good 3,” close to North American “Firm.”

Because Australia breeds the best turf sprinters in the world, and the Flemington 5 furlong straight course allows the fastest to showcase their ability, the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes is considered by many to be the highest quality turf sprint in the world.

A few years ago Racing Victoria (the Melbourne-area tracks) named this race in her honor.  She won the race three times (the last time when it was already named the Black Caviar stakes) on the way to an undefeated career – 26 wins in 26 starts, earning her recognition as the second best horse in the world behind only Frankel.

Here is a supplied wagering strategy, a brief writeup on every runner, along with their current odds with Crown Bet, Racing Victoria’s official bookmaker.  Bookies can take bets up to the race going off.  Australians also have pari-mutuel wagering like we do, but only on race day – they call that “The Tote.”.  Course layout:  No turns, 1000 meters (approximately 5 furlongs).  Note Barrier 1 is the “far side” of the course next to the inner rail, and Barrier 13 is closest to the fans.  Generally posts 8 and out outperform posts closer to the far side.

Black Caviar Lightning Stakes – My Wagerting Strategy ($49):

  • $20 win on 8 (Supido)
  • $3 win on 6 (Faatinah)
  • $8 exacta box (8/11) – ($16) and
  • $1 “Splitter Trifecta” 8,11/1,3,4,6,7/8,11 ($10)

Race Number Australia (Flemington) Friday, February 17, 2017 8A BLACK CAVIAR LIGHTNING STAKES ($750K) 12:45am EST (11:45pm CST, 9:45pm) PST W, P, S, Ex, Qu, Tri, Super OPEN Group 1 5 furlongs.  Apprentices Cannot Claim.  Picks 8-11-7

Here’s the Field!

#1 Terravista (Barrier 9 of 13, 8/1):  He seems on the backside of his career, and I have lost significant money on him over the years when he was unable to make the jump up and win an elite Group 1  Use him in the trifecta.  His outside draw will definitely help his cause.

#2 Flamberge (Barrier 1, 33/1):  He was fourth in his comeback and was never that successful to begin with.  The fact the bettors are shying away from him speaks volumes.

#3 The Quarterback (Barrier 12, 16/1):  This guy is a tough horse and he won a big sprint down the straight in 2016.  I think his wide draw hurts,, as he is a come from behind horse and he may find it difficult to get “cover” behind other runners.  I will be using him under in the trifecta.

#4 Counterattack (Barrier 6, 30/1):  Generally an underachiever but hits the board a lot, another good horse for the Trifecta.

#5 Illustrious Lad (Barrier 8, 15/1):  Not without hope but these are the best in the world.  I won’t be using him.

#6 Faatinah (Barrier 11, 30/1):  Not overly talented, but he might be the speed of the speed and he drew well in Barrier 11.  He also has a “down the straight” stakes win.  Probably worth betting $2 to $4 to win on him.  His training team is very hot right now.

#7 Spieth (Barrier 5, 4/1):  Is highly rated and is a legitimate win candidate.  He has never been down the straight, so that might be an issue.  I think it is better to use him UNDER in the exotics.

#8 Supido (Barrier 10, 7/1):  Is very similar to Speith in that he is very lightly raced and super talented.  This horse changes leads better than any horse I have noticed in 20 years.  Inexperience, but “on the up.”  For good measure his “family tree” contains horses like Northern Dancer, Danehill and Halo, so you know this guy can go fast.  Most likely he will be my key horse.

#9 Orujo (Barrier 13, 150/1):  Hopefully he won’t get in the way of the horses I like on the outside.

#10 Heatherly (Barrier 3, 8/1):  She is a super-fast mare with a lot of speed, but the key in winning these straight sprints near the lead is getting a “soft” first quarter.  She just guns from the gate, and it’s debatable if she can put away #6 Faatinal and have anything left late.

#11 Flying Artie (Barrier 4, 7/2):  He has threatened to be one of the best sprinters in Australia for a while, and he won a 6furlong Group 1 limited to Three year olds last November at nearly 8/1.  His trainer is the best with Sprinters and he has won Group one sprints off the layoff.  I think the odds are too low for a win bet but I will use him on top in my exotics.

#12 StarTurn (Barrier 2, 7/2):  Co favored here, but he has never really impressed me as a top class sprinter.  This race is like the 100 meter dash in the Olympics, and I don’t think this guy has the stuff.  Since I can’t use then all, he’s off of all my plays.

#13 Missrock (Barrier 7, 70/1):  This horse, eligible for a low-level handicap, appears completely outclassed, but they are putting blinkers on for the first time, usually a strong trainer clue they are trying 100% today.

Graded Stakes Preview, Saturday, Feb 18th, 2017

The Royal Delta Stakes – In Memory of the Deceased Royal Delta

GP Race 4 (1:30 PM Eastern), The Royal Delta Stakes (Grade 2), 8.5 Furlongs

Class:  In a close call Eskenformoney (15-4-3-3, $360,000in earnings).

Expected Pace:  Probably Curlin’s Approval, especially on the stretch out from 7 furlongs.

Consistency:  Eskenformone has never been out of the money at GP (5-3-1-1), and she did beat Curlin’s Approval in their only head-to-head matchup.

BetPTC Selections:

1st – #5 Eskenformoney (8/5)   2nd – #2 Curlin’s Approval (7/5)   3rd – #3 Mo’ Green (6/1)

ESKENFORMONEY is fresh for this race, and she can come from off the pace, which we think gives her the edge over the more one-dimensional early speed of Curlin’s Approval.  Mo’ Green is in good recent form, has a good GP record (5-2-1-0) and gets Johnny V in the irons.

 

The Barbara Fritchie Stakes – A Top Sprint for Eastern-based Mares

Lrl Race 9 (4:30 PM Eastern),The Barbara Fritchie Stakes (Grade 2), 7.0 Furlongs

Class:  By The Moon (14-4-5-1, $940,440 in earnings).

Expected Pace:  Rowd E Allie will take then as fas as she can.

Consistency:  High Ridge Road has the class to contend and is undefeated at Laurel (3-3-0-0).

BetPTC Selections:

1st – #3 By The Moon (2/1)   2nd – #8 Wonder Gal (9/2)   3rd – #1 High Ridge Road (5/2)

BY THE MOON is a really hard knocker.  Her best performance would win this, but she runs second a lot so if you use her in the exacta use her on “top and bottom.”  Wonder Gal can put in freakish performances, and the BRIS Track Bias stats indicate the best posts at this distance are post 8 and out.  She might be the one to BET at the 9/2 ML quote.  High Ridge Road has been running a lot of one turn mile races but has yet to try 7 furlongs.  She might find it tricky to get around the track from post 1.

 

The General George Stakes – A Top Sprint for Eastern-based Older Males

Lrl Race 10 (5:00 PM Eastern),The Barbara Fritchie Stakes (Grade 3), 7.0 Furlongs

Class:  Stallwalkin’ Dude (Multiple Grade 1 placed, $1.2 Million in earnings).

Expected Pace:  Imperial Hint will take then as fas as he can.

Consistency:  Afleet Willy has always finished in the money at Laurel (9-5-3-1).

BetPTC Selections:

1st – #6 Stallwalkin’ Dude (5/2)   2nd – #5 Imperial Hint (3/1)   3rd – #1 Afleet Willy (12/1)

STALLWALKIN’ DUDE is the type of older gelding from yesteryear that would travel from track to track in the search of good purses.  It looks like he is in form and we know he’s more dangerous at 7 furlongs, compared to 6 furlongs, where we can get outpaced.  Imperial Hint looks like an up and coming horse that is finally reaching his potential.  In a pick 4 and/or pick 5 we would recommend using both horses.  Afleet Willy is sharp and loves the surface.  At 12/1 he makes a lot of sense as a horse to hit the trifecta under the top two.

 

The Bayakoa Stakes – A Great Race in Memory of Multiple Grade 1 Winner Bayakoa

OP Race 9 (6:09 PM Eastern),The Bayakoa (Grade 3), 8.5 Furlongs

Class:  Terra Promessa (Multiple Grade 3 winner, $525,600 Million in earnings in 8 starts).

Expected Pace:  Super Saks has sprint speed, we think she will take then as fas as she can.

Consistency:  Terra Promessa has never lost at OP (4-4-0-0).

BetPTC Selections:

1st – #6 Terra Promessa (6/5)   2nd – #5 Streamline (4/1)   3rd – #7 Ready to Confess (9/2)

This appears to be largely a “do over” of the Pippin at Oaklawn on January 14th, and TERRA PROMESSA’s race to lose at 4/5 win odds.  Streamline was incredibly flat/dull last time, but we hope with the comeback race under her belt and now “second up” today she can turn the tables on Ready to Confess, who is a nice closer but we believe a cut below the top two.

BetPTC.com Horses to Watch – 2/13/17

Horses to Watch – Ed Meyer

The Sam F. Davis, San Vincente, and WEBN Stakes gave us a little glimpse of good things to come from the three-year-olds.  If you’re a horse player you have to love this time of year. The marquee events start catching your eye on Monday, and before you know you’ll be thinking of Saturday. With every passing morning the sun is coming up minutes earlier, and I can smell the roses blooming in Louisville. – But hold your horses ! – There’s a bevy of races that offer plenty of bankroll building value, and many runners who’ll get a pass this weekend as they may not have put forth their best effort due to unforeseen circumstances. Be on the lookout and give them a good look before heading to the windows. – Best of luck from your friends at BetPTC.com !

Gulfstream Park

2/11/17

Race #6 – #9 – Love Me in Malibu – 7 1/2f on the turf

Javier Castellano was the pilot, and the daughter of Malibu Moon has been off for two months shipping in from Churchill Downs. She was dropping in class and the Eddie Kenneally barn wins 37% dropping down two class levels. She was sent off the odds-on chalk and bumped at the start and forced wide throughout the race.

Race #7 – #5 – Snag – 1 1/16 on the turf

This son of Harlan’s Holiday was backing up from 2 miles on the turf and brought together the team of Florent Geroux and Todd Pletcher. He was dropping in class to the O.C. $35,000 level and looked to be a player. The colt saved ground along the rail and was forced to tap on the brakes and await room at the 1/4 pole. He still managed a solid bid but had to settle for 4th money this day.

Race #8 – #1 – Rocketry – 7 1/2f on the turf

First time starter from the James Jerkins barn and drew the rail post. he has been training a solid clip at Palm Meadows and he bred to relish the turf. – Nik Juarez found himself back in the rear and had the look of a runner who has good racing interest but will need a bit more ground. Be on the lookout for a little longer race and the barn will have all systems go !

Race #9 – #3 – Puca –  1 1/8 on the turf – G-3 Suwannee River 

Five-yr-old daughter of Big Brown making her first start in two months shipping in from Aqueduct. She hails from the Bill Mott barn, and had the services of veteran turf rider Jose Lezcano. – She was a off a beat slow from the gate break and forced 7 wide into the far turn while making up ground. Maybe a small drop in class does the trick, or she’ll score at a big price at this class level. Either way, this is a follow right back to the windows runner.

Race #10 – #5 – Flatlined – 1 1/8th on the turf

Have you ever had a bad hair day for no reason ? – Well this gelding tossed in a clunker and there is no real explanation. Jersey-Joe Bravo had the call for Charles Dickey and is 9/12 ITM over the green. – He showed no real effort and was forced five wide down the backstretch. – He has the look of a turfer who will jump up and pay box cars, and you’ll want him in your exotic wagers.

Race #11 – #7 – Sharp Azteca –  1 mile GP Handicap

This son of Freud has the look of a runner who could relish the sprint or stretch out a bit and get the job done. He showed the way and drew off by a 4 1/2 length victory. 7/9 ITM for the Jorge Navarro barn and loves the GP oval. – This was his first start back off the G-1 Malibu and I think were in for a treat in the 2017 season.

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Rare Group 1 Australian Racing – On Sunday Night!

  • Catch rare GROUP 1-quality Australian Racing on Sunday Night!
  • Friday night’s Sydney card for Royal Randwick (a.k.a. Randwick) was moved to Sunday night (North American time) because of high heat conditions.
  • The world’s highest ranked turf horse, Winx, runs tonight in Race 8!  If you need Past Performances, they are available at skyracingworld.com for FREE.
  • First post is 9:20 Eastern (8:20 Central and 6:20 Pacific).
  • All the races from Randwick (along with two other minor tracks) will be simulcast at BetPTC.com.

My breakdown for Race 8, the Group 2 Star Apollo Stakes:

Race 8B Australia (Randwick) Sunday, February 12, 2017.  THE STAR APOLLO STAKES ($250K) 1:40am EST (12:40am CST, 10:40pm PST) W, P, S, Ex, Qu, Tri, Super 3yo+ OPEN Group 2.  7 furlongs.  Apprentices Cannot Claim.  Picks 11-1-5

#11 Winx (estimated odds 2/5) is just way better than her competition, and the rumors are she is training better than ever for her first race of the new season.  #1 Hartnell (5/1) s a very good horse, but he’s better at 9 furlongs to 11 furlongs, so maybe just watch and see if he gets the exercise he needs for his next race.  #5 Dibayani (20/1) has only 2 wins in 26 starts but he hits the board quite often at good odds, even in the big races.  He is a logical horse to use in the trifecta.

Here are the conditions, scratches and rider changes at Randwick for SUNDAY NIGHT AUSTRALIAN RACING!

Track Condition: Good 4 (similar to North American “Good”).

Weather: 77 Degrees F.
Penetrometer: 5.21

Rail Position:  Timing – Electronic : Rail – +20 feet Entire Circuit

Announced Scratches:

Race 2: 10 SUPER FORCE (NZ)
  11 MAR NERO
Race 3: 10 MOST EXALTED
Race 4: 11 SMOOTH CELEBRATION
Race 6: 2 HENRY THE CREATETH
  6 ALL IN RHYTHM
Race 8: 10 SAVVY NATURE (NZ)
  13 GLOBAL GLAMOUR
Race 9: 4 SAVOUREUX
  8 DENPURR
  11 AMERISTRALIA
  15e SORORITY SISTER
Race 10: 4 GOT THE GOSS

Late Scratchings

There are no late scratchings

Late Jockey Changes

Race 1: 3 ASTRONOMOS (GB) – Jason Collett
Race 2: 12e KISS IN THE DARK – Tim Clark
Race 5: 8 WOULDNT IT BE NICE – Jay Ford
Race 9: 12 QUEEN OF KARIBA – Andrew Adkins (a/),
Race 10: 13 PICK ME UP – Yusuke Ichikawa

Undeclared Riders

Race 2: 13e TIP JAR
Race 10: 16e MORE ENERGY
17e AFTER ALL THAT

 

 

It’s All About Value

by STRETCH

Being that BetPTC is putting on a contest this weekend and its all about ROI (return on Investment) I thought it was a perfect time to explain VALUE.

We all know it is tough to make money at the races, its is even tougher if you are not getting value on your bets. For example if you are betting a horse at 2-1 but should be at 5-1 this is a terrible bet, sure the horse might win but you are not getting proper ROI.

When do you get value, well that is easy, it is when the racing public is betting the race incorrectly. Let’s say they have a horse at 3-5 and you see multiple reasons why this horse can or will lose. Right away you know there will be overlays in the field. Here is the reverse from my above example, a horse is paying 5-1 but you feel the odds should be 2-1. This is your chance to get your value. At 5-1 you do not have to be right as often. Do not forget to watch your exotic pools either, many times horses may get over bet in the win pool, but forgotten about in the other pools. Maybe there was a large win bet that lowers your odds out of the value you are looking for, but not in the exotics.

Races to avoid happens when the race is bet the right way by the public, rarely happens but it does from time to time. Usually 5-1 horses are at 5-1, 20-1 are at 20-1.  A favourite that looks unbeatable, we all know favourites do win around 33% of the time. Some favourite get over bet and win, so you are stuck, you don’t want to bet on them and know you can’t beat them. Wait 20 minutes and bet another race.

Understanding the differences in a longshot:  A 20-1 ml horse will have lots of negatives, but a horse at 8-1 but goes off at 20 – 1 has far less.  The 8 – 1 gets over looked and becomes a great bet at 20 -1. This is a great note to understand when you are in contests, many people look for 20 – 1 shots, but they use the morning lines. Wrong, watch the board and look for value. or horses at 20 -1 instead.

By the way, the weekend contest is a no brainer to sign up for. It’s free bonus cash, plus it will help you understand how to bet a little better to maximum your chance to make money at the races.

Find that value and make some money this weekend.

Friday Night Australian Racing

It’s Too Hot Baby (at least in Sydney)

ALL of the races scheduled for the Friday Night “A” track (Randwick) have been moved to SUNDAY night (North American time) because of overly warm conditions near Sydney – recall it is their summer now.  This is noteworthy because the two best horses in Australia, Winx and Hartnell, were scheduled to make their 2017 debuts in the Group 2 Apollo Stakes at 1400 meters (7 furlongs) Friday night.  We would assume they will both run on Sunday night in the same race.  We will have picks/selections for the Sunday night card if we can get PPs in time.

Race 1B Australia (Doomben) Friday, February 10, 2017 1B VAL AND EDDIE MACHIN HCP ($60K) 8:55pm EST 7:55pm CST 5:55pm PST W, P, S, Ex, Qu, Tri, Super 2yo OPEN.  6 furlongs, Apprentices Can Claim.  Picks 4-3-6-10

#4 LADY LARK (4/1 ML) has shown enough in her two races that she should be considered a very strong favorite.  She has the best two speed figures showing in the race and is dropping from a $125,000 purse race (where she was a decent third) into a $60,000 purse race.  #3 South Of France (6/1 ML) showed some greenness in her first start before getting clear run late, digging in for second.  She appears to be a hard trier.  I wasn’t able to watch video for #6 Felino Bel (7/1 ML) or #10 Ruby Read Heart (5/1 ML) but off their running lines they do look competitive.

Race 1C Australia (Morphettville / Pinjarra) Friday, February 10, 2017.  HOLDFAST INSURANCE (BM75) ($42K) 9:13pm EST 8:13pm CST 6:13pm PST W, P, S, Ex, Qu, Tri, Super BM75.  1 1/4 miles Apprentices Can Claim.  Picks 5-4

A logical exacta box.  #5 THESPINIS (5/1 ML) is only 3 for 32 lifetime but has been more competitive in these longer distance races.  Her last win on Jan 27th, 2017 was on the much, much tougher Moonee Valley/Melbourne circuit.  Don’t expect 5/1 odds, I expect her to be the 5/2 favorite.  #4 Saturday Affair (5/2 ML) is 6 for 46 lifetime and she exits a career-best win at Morphettville.  This is her first try at 10 furlongs and she’s not really bred to get the distance, but her recent form has been very strong.

Graded Stakes Preview, Saturday, February 11th, 2017

Let’s Be Cool Cats and Enjoy the Sam F. Davis!

Tam R10 (Post 4:45 Eastern), The Sam F. Davis Stakes (Grade 3), 8.5 furlongs

Class:  McCracken or Fact Finding (both are undefeated and have a two-turn win).

Expected Pace:  Fact Finding will try to take them as far as he can.  State of Honor, Chance of Luck and Tapwrit will be up close.  McCracken won’t show much pace – he comes from mid-pack or farther out.

Consistency:  McCracken or Fact Finding (both are undefeated and have a two-turn win).

BetPTC.com selections:

1st – #8 McCraken (2/1)   2nd – #3 Fact Finding (9/2)   3rd – #9 No Dozing (4/1)

I think there is going to be a fair amount of speed on the early pace, which should set it up for MCCRAKEN.  Also, I have noticed over the years horses that run well at the prior Churchill Downs’ Fall Meet typically handle the quirky Tampa surface.  McCraken has been working very well and this race has Kentucky Derby eligibility points attached to it – so the incentive to run well is fairly high.  Fact Finding is a potential loose speed in here and it is hard to fault his form – he can fly early and still finish fairly well.  No Dozing comes out of the right races to be a factor in here, and his speed figures are larger than McCraken’s.

 

Tampa Bay also Features the Aptly Named Tampa Bay Stakes!

Tam R9 (Post 4:15 Eastern), The Tampa Bay Stakes (Grade 3, turf), 8.5 furlongs

Class:  Kaigun has earned $1.38 million in only 27 starts.

Expected Pace: IF Conquest Panthera gets a jockey and enters the race (as of Thursday Feb. 9th no rider is named), he could be an interesting speed play in a field full of horses that do not want the lead.

Consistency:  Bondurant was (4-3-1-0) in races at 1 mile and 1 mile and 1/16th in 2016.  He makes his 2017 debut Saturday.

BetPTC.com selections:

1st – #8 Bondurant (8/1)   2nd – #7 Kaigun (9/2)  

3rd – #10 Conquest Panthera (12/1)   4th – #6 Catapault (7/2)

This is an evenly matched field, but BONDURANT really impressed me last year as a horse on the way up, and as noted above his record at this distance is really good.  Kaigun loves to run second a lot, and he might have a better kick with the freshening.  Conquest Panthera is a logical speed threat in a paceless field.  On the other hand he might well scratch, so the logical speed threat left in would be logical contender Catapult.

 

Tampa Bay’s Third Feature Is for the Ladies! The Endeavor Stakes

Tam R9 (Post 5:15 Eastern), The Endeavor Stakes (Grade 3, turf), 8.5 furlongs, 4up F&M

Class:  Isabella Sings has earned $538 thousand in 19 starts.

Expected Pace: There are some other potential speedsters entered, but Isabella Sings is “rocket ship” fast.

Consistency:  Isabella Sings has a great turf record (19-7-4-2).

BetPTC.com selections:

1st – #5 Isabella Sings (5/2)   2nd – #1 Lights in Paris (4/1)  

3rd – #9 Lots o’ Lex (5/1)   4th – No Fault of Mine (6/1)

ISABELLA SINGS seems to have several factors in her favor and appears to be a logical wire to wire threat.  Lights in Paris faced tougher in Europe and may have more to give over here.  She’s second off the layoff and appears capable of more improvement.  Lot’s o Lex is a really good animal that is capable of sitting back in second or third behond ‘Isabella,’ then getting first run on the closers.  She too is second off the layoff and could very well improve.  No Fault of Mine does not have the turf resume of the top three, but she’s run very well on the grass in limited opportunities and is trained by Chris Block, one of the best grass trainers in North America.

 

Gulfstream’s Suwannee River Is for the Ladies!

GP R9 (Post 4:03 Eastern), The Suwannee River Stakes (Grade 3, turf), 9.0 furlongs, 4 up F&M

Class:  Sandiva has earned $711,000 in 22 turf starts

Expected Pace:  If Goldy Espony is back to her best she is the likely early leader.

Consistency:  Sandiva has never been out of the money on the Gulfstream turf (7-4-2-1).

BetPTC.com selections:

1st – #6 Sandiva (5/2)   2nd – #1 Sea Coast (6/1)  

3rd – #9 Goldy Espony (3/1)   4th – #4 My Sweet Girl (40/1)

SANDIVA loves the course and we know she is fit.  5/2 is not great value but she seems well spotted here.  Sea Coast loves to get second and she could be the key to a decent exacta or trifecta play.  Goldy Espony is sort of a mystery horse, but we know she had class at one time and Chad Brown did a great job with getting Lady Eli back to the races.  My Sweet Girl has tactical speed and might get a nice trip to hit the superfecta.

 

The Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap Is for the Gents!

GP R10 (Post 4:34 Eastern), The Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap (Grade 1, turf), 9.0 furlongs, 4 up

Class:  Divisidero has earned $737,000 in 10 turf starts

Expected Pace:  Not much to go on but Eirigh tends to lead or sit close to the lead.

Consistency:  Divisidero has an undefeated record at this distance (2-2-0-0) and has been in the money in eight of his 10 starts (10-4-1-3).

BetPTC.com selections:

1st – #6 Divisidero (2/1)   2nd – #4 Beach Patrol (5/2)  

3rd – #7 Eirigh (12/1)   4th – #8 All Included (40/1)

DIVISIDERO ran well first up, but I see the comments “Washy, very wide late,” and I expect a better result for the son of Kitten’s Joy Saturday.  Beach Patrol is a very honest horse that tries hard.  Eirigh might be the “early speed” and All Included can get in the super.

 

The Gulfstream Park Handicap Is for the Milers!

GP R11 (Post 5:05 Eastern), The Gulfstream Park Handicap (Grade 2), One turn mile, 4up

Class:  Blofeld has earned $558,000 in 7 dirt starts

Expected Pace:  Sharp Azteca will try to lead.

Consistency:  Sharp Azteca is undefeated 1 turn mile races (3-3-0-0).

BetPTC.com selections:

1st – #7 Sharp Azteca (5/1)   2nd – #1 Tommy Macho (7/2)  

3rd – #5 Zulu (12/1)   4th – #3 Blofeld (10/1)

SHARP AZTECA is a pretty tough cookie, leading late in the high-class Malibu at Santa Anita.  I have a strong hunch he will run even better being closer to Jorge Navarro’s base.  Tommy Macho loves one mile races at GP.  If he runs his best race he can certainly win, and the rail at GP wins more than its “fair shar” of races.  Zulu is a really good horse, but Saturday he will be facing toughies.  Blofeld rarely wins, but he won this stakes last year in a career best effort.  It would not be a huge surprise.

 

Santa Anita’s Santa Maria – Also For The Ladies!

SA R4 (Post 5:00 Eastern), The Santa Maria Stakes (Grade 2), 8.5 furlongs, 4up F&M

Class:  Vale Dori continues to roll – $447,000 in 9 dirt starts

Expected Pace:  Vale Dori will lead or sit second.

Consistency:  Vale Dori (9-5-2-1).

BetPTC.com selections:

1st – #6 Vale Dori (1/5)   2nd – #1 Midnight Toast (12/1)    3rd – #4  Sheer Pleasure (5/1)

VALE DORI has many handicapping factors in her favor and she faces a weak bunch.  Midnight Toast is bred well (Midnight Lute out of a Gulch mare) and her wet track speed figures are OK.  Can she do the same on fast dirt?  Sheer Pleasure comes out o a highly competitive race and she might be able to get into the exacta.

 

Santa Anita’s Arcadia – For the So Cal Turf Milers!

SA R5 (Post 5:30 Eastern), The Arcadia Stakes (Grade 2, turf), 1 mile, 4up 

Class:  Ring Weekend – $1.1 million in 12 turf starts

Expected Pace:  What a View will lead.

Consistency:  Ring Weekend (12-5-3-0).

BetPTC.com selections:

1st – #2 Ring Weekend (6/5)   2nd – #3 What a View (4/1)    3rd – #4  Conquest Enforcer (8/5)

RING WEEKEND has been facing classy horses and I think he’s going to have a big year.  6/5 is a short price but use him as a single in the pick 4 and/or the pick 6.  What a View is a tough hombre on the lead, and overall his BRIS E2 pace figures are better than Conquest Enforcer’s, who got to walk the dog in his win on Opening Day.  And for what it is worth, not a horse has run well out of the Mathis Brothers Mile, another strike against Conquest Enforcer.