Hong Kong Horse Racing – Statistics. Big Prices Abound

Hong Kong Jockey Club Week In Review 07/01, 07/05

Prepared for the Hong Kong Jockey Club by Dick Powell

21 races

8 favorites won – 38%

12.43 average field size

$14.65 average win price

 

JOCKEYS                                             TRAINERS

4 wins Zac Purton                                 3 wins David Hall

4 wins Joao Moreira                               3 wins John Moore

3 wins Karis Teetan                               2 wins Tony Cruz

2 wins Neil Callan                                   2 wins Frankie Lor

2 wins Vincent Ho                                  2 wins Ricky Yiu

2 wins Francis Liu

Hong Kong Jockey Club Meet In Review 9/01 – 07/05

799 races (one dead-heat)

235 favorites won – 30.20%

12.37 average field size

$18.98 average win price

 

JOCKEYS                                             TRAINERS

141 wins Zac Purton                               64 wins Ricky Yiu

135 wins Joao Moreira                           63 wins Francis Lui

88 wins Karis Teetan                              60 wins Tony Cruz

63 wins Vincent Ho                                56 wins John Moore

42 wins Chad Schofield                          47 wins Caspar Fownes

28 wins Matthew Poon                           45 wins Danny Shum

28 wins Derek Leung                              45 wins John Size

26 wins Neil Callan                                41 wins Frankie Lor

40 wins Doug Whyte

 

Next Race Meets: 

Wednesday                       Happy Valley           07/08/20           First Post: 6:45am EDT

Sunday (Saturday night)    Sha Tin                   07/12/20           First Post: 12:30am EDT

 

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – July 4

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – July 4

by: Ed Meyer

Belmont Park

Race #9 – The G1 Metropolitan – 1 mile – 5:47 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #2- Vekoma / #3 – McKinzie / #4 – Hog Creek Hustle

#2 Vekoma hails from the barn of George Weaver with Javier Castellano in the saddle. This is his 2nd off the layoff and the barn scores at a 22% win clip. A perfect stalker who is 2 for 2 at Belmont and fits the distance nicely. This son of Candy Ride looks the major danger and should give a top effort. #3 McKinzie comes from the barn of Bob Baffert and has the same style as Vekoma. He ships in from SA where the barn wins at a 32% clip. When Team Baffert comes to New York there is usually a good reason. This son of Street Sense is solid and brings his top game every time. These two should knock heads turning for home. #4 Hog Creek Hustle makes a 3rd off the shelf move for Vickie Foley. A solid closer who is 1 for 1 at Belmont and gets a rider change to Jose Ortiz. His last win came in the G1 Woody Stephens at Belmont last year at a big price.

Race #10 – The G1 Manhattan – 1 1/4 on the turf – 6:20 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Rockemporer / #1 – Instilled Regard / #4 Sadler’s Joy

#2 Rockemporer ships in from SA as a beaten chalk in the G2 Charlie Whittingham. This son of Holy Roman Emporer (IRE) is a solid closer who is 3 for 4 ITM at the distance. Johnny V in the saddle for Chad Brown and he came rolling on the inner turf last year at this time. #1 Instilled Regard hails from the Chad Brown barn with Irad Ortiz. They are winning at a 36% clip as a team. He is 1 for 1 at Belmont and appears to enjoy the inner turf and could be a player as they turn for home. #4 Sadler’s Joy makes a 2nd off the shelf move for Thom Albertrani. They cut back in distance and Javier Castellano knows this son of Kitten’s Joy, and will be moving at the right time. I love the bullet work coming in showing all systems go.

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Race #11 – The G2 Suburban – 1 1/4 – 6:51 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Tacitus / #6 – Sir Winston / #4 – Mr. Buff

#1 Tacitus ships in from Oaklawn Park off a troubled trip getting carried wide for trainer Bill Mott. He’s been off for 2 months and John Velasquez is the pilot. The last race looked like a perfect prep stretching back out to 9f. A stalker with a bullet work and getting blinkers today. #6 Sir Winston comes in for trainer Mark Casse and Joel Rosario. This son of Awesome Again is 3 for 3 ITM at Belmont and should come calling late. Has plenty of back class and can be dangerous. #4 Mr. Buff enters in for John Kimmel and has tons of early speed. Junior Alvarado in the irons who can shake loose and be dangerous if left alone. This New York bred is a solid and 9 for 13 ITM over the course. He was a beaten chalk last out and the barn comes back to score 16%.

 

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – June 27

Stephen Foster night at Churchill Downs

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – June 27

by: Ed Meyer

Belmont Park

Race #8 – The G2 New York – 1 1/4 on the turf – 5:04 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #6 – Mrs Sippy / #7 – Mean Mary / #1 – Call Me Love

#6 Mrs Sippy closing daughter of Blame for Graham Motion and Joel Rosario. She’s been off for 7 months and comes back with some solid works ready to fire. She drops in class and Rosario wins 17% with his turf runners. Look for her late in the lane running quick. #7 Mean Mary is  speedy gal who hails from the Motion barn as well. She may play the part of the rabbit, or just take them start to finish under Luis Saez who wins 19% with speedy runners. #1 Call Me Love is a closer for the Christopher Clement going 2nd start off the layoff where they score 20% off this move with Irad Ortiz in the irons.

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Race #9 – The G2 True North – 6 1/2f – 5:36 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #8 – Firenze Fire / #7 – Promises Fulfilled / #3 – Wicked Trick

#8 Firenze Fire is a solid stalker for Kelly Breen and Irad Ortiz. This is 2nd off the shelf and the barn scores 18% coming back ready. That was a better race in the G1 Carter than appears and he got good work that day. Ortiz wins 25% with sprinters and is 4 for 6 ITM over the course. #7 Promises Fulfilled is a speed gunning type for Dale Romans and Luis Saez in the saddle. Saez wins 21% with early runners and has some good works over the deep CD track. #3 Wicked Trick is a long range closer for Linda Rice and Jose Lezcano who have done good work over the years.

Race #10 – The G1 Just A Game – 1 mile on the turf – 6:08 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #6 – Uni / #4 – Newspaperofrecord / #1 – Beau Recall

#6 Uni hails from the Chad Brown barn and is a long range closer with Joel Rosario in the irons. Been off for 7 months and comes flying late in the lane every time. She is 4 for 4 ITM at Belmont and will be double dangerous today. #4 Newspaperofrecord is an early runner who can be a true monster when she brings her best game. Her last win was impressive going 7f and the added distance will be welcome as Irad Ortiz wins 36% with Brown and 26% with early runners. #1Beau Recall is a very impressive closer from the Brad Cox barn with Jose Ortiz in the driver’s seat. She loves to come calling late in the lane and has some solid works to have her ready. Ortiz teams up to win 20% with Cox and will be the major danger in the lane.

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Churchill Downs

Race #9 – The G2 Fleur de Lis – 1 1/8 – 5:15 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 -Midnight Bisou / #4 – Serengeti Empress / #7 – Motion Emotion

#5 Midnight Bisou is a late runner for Steve Asmussen and Mike Smith in the saddle. She is 2 for 2 ITM at CD and comes in with some good works. She loves the distance going 6 for 6 ITM  and will be a major factor when they turn for home. She is the one to beast and Smith in town is a positive sign. #4 Serengeti Empress is a speedy gal who exits the G1 Apple Blossom at OP. Thom Amoss is winning 20% at the meet, and Joe Talamo has the call. She will dictate the pace when the real running begins and may run into one tough gal with Midnight Bisou. If she doesn’t bring her best, Serengeti will take flight down the lane. #7 Motion Emotion is a mid pack stalker for Richard Baltas shipping in from OP. She’ll press the pace and try and play the spoiler role if all falls apart.

Race #10 – The G2 Stephen Foster – 1 1/8 – 5:47 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #5- Tom’s d’ Etat / #6 – By My Standards / #2 – Pirate’s Punch

#5 Tom’s d’ Etat should lay just off the pace for Al Stall and Miguel Mena. He looks to go four in a row. He is 6 for 7 ITM at CD and will be double tough to beat. They move up in class and the trainer wins 25% off  a last race win. #6 By My Standards will be running right with Tom for Bret Calhoun and Gabe Saez. This son of Goldencents  exits off an impressive win at OP and seeks his fourth straight win as well. Been off for 56 days and has a few very nice works to prepare. #2 Pirate’s Punch is a stalker for Grant Foster looking to play the upset runner in here. Mike Smith aboard is interesting, and may be a little closer to the front right off the gate.

JUMP IN THE POOL FOR SATURDAY

Horse Racing Belmont Stakes Day Analysis – June 20

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Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – June 20 – Belmont Day

by: Ed Meyer

Belmont Park

Race #8 – The G1 Acorn Stakes – 1 mile – 4:15 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections: #4 – Casual / #1 – Gamine / #7 – Perfect Alibi

#4 Casual is a daughter of Curlin who’s a perfect 2 for 2 lifetime shipping in from CD. Steve Asmussen is the conditioner with his go-to rider, Ricardo Santana, in the saddle. She stretches out in distance from 7f and moves up in class getting the acid test. If her two races show anything she’ll be in mid flight ready to pounce. Her dam Lady Tak has 6 starters and 5 winners to her credit. #1 Gamine is also a perfect 2 for 2 coming in for Bob Baffert and John Velasquez in the irons. She’s a speedy type and has solid regular works. She’s been off 49 days and could be dangerous with the rail draw. #7 Perfect Alibi is a long range closer for Mark Casse and Irad Ortiz. She’s been off since the BC Juvenile Fillies and looks to relish the distance. Her dam No Use Denying has 5 starts and 5 wins to her credit. With a solid pace, she’ll come calling around the far turn under Ortiz.cash is king at betptc

Race #9 – The G1 Jaipur – 6f – Inner Turf – 4:53 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 – Pure Sensation / #5 – Stubbins / #3 – Texas Wedge

#4 Pure Sensation is a quick runner hailing from the Christophe Clement barn with Irad Ortiz. He ships in from SA from the BC Turf Sprint. He is 4 for 5 ITM at BEL and is 4 for 5 ITM at the distance. His style is pure speed getting added distance from 5f. Clement wins 19% with turf runners, and 15% with graded stakes. #5 Stubbins comes from the Doug O’Neill barn with Luis Saez getting the call. He’s been knocking on the door his last two efforts and gets six panels to come rolling. Saez wins 20% with his turf runners and 19% with closers. #3 Texas Wedge is a solid late runner from the Peter Miller barn with Javier Castellano in the driver’s seat. This son of Colonel John always comes running and the extra half furlong should help his causes greatly.

Race #10 – The G1 Belmont Stakes – 1 1/8 – 5:42 pm EDT 

BetPTC.com Selections / #8 – Tiz the Law / #2 – Solo Valante / #5 – Farmington Road

#8 Tiz the Law is a son of Constitution for Barclay Tagg and Manny Franco. His last win was the G1 Florida Derby two months ago and has been vacationing at Palm Meadows with a few works over the track. He has a stalking style and this could be Tagg’s next big horse. His record is 5 for 5 ITM lifetime and looks like a new penny. #2 Solo Valante hails from the Patrick Biancone barn. A strong closer with Luca Panici aboard had a solid prep at TBD winning easily. He comes from way back and the rider fits him like a glove. #5 Farmington Road is a son of Quality Road for the Todd Pletcher barn with Javier Castellano in the saddle. The Todd Squad is having a great meet winning 28%, and his runner comes off a 49 day layoff since the G1 Arkansas Derby. He will be a good price and will come running late in the lane. He may be the perfect complement to your exotics or be the one who could upset the apple cart and light up the tote board.

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – June 13

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – June 13

by: Ed Meyer

Belmont Race #9 – The G-1 Ogden Phipps – 1 1/16 – 5:36 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Point of Honor / #1 – Pink Sands / #5 – Ollie’s Candy

#2 Point of Honor comes from the George Weaver barn with Javier Castellano in the irons. The barn is winning 29% at the meet and exits the G1 Apple Blossom at OP where she was caught six wide in the stretch. Been off for 56 days and has faced tougher in the past. This daughter of Curlin is a strong closer and Javier wins 19% with this type of runner. #1 Pink Sands is a daughter of Tapit for the Shug McGaughey barn with Jose Ortiz in the saddle. Four months on the shelf and has a 5 for 5 ITM record over the track. Stretches out from 7f and looks for three straight wins. Should be sitting mid pack ready to pounce. #5 Ollie’s Candy is a daughter of Candy Ride who has been away for 56 days for trainer John Sadler and Joel Rosario. She is 4 for 4 ITM at the distance, and her style is right off the pace. Rosario wins 20% with pressing types.

Churchill Downs

Race #11 – The G3 Louisville Stakes – 1 1/2 on the turf – 6:28 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #12 – Admission Office / #5 – Arklow / #4 – He’s No Lemon

#12 Admission Office is a son of Point of Entry for Brian Lynch and Julien Leparoux. 2nd time off the layoff and 2 for 2 ITM at CD. Leparoux wins 14% with late runners and the barn wins 16% with graded stakes. Look for a strong late bid. #5 Arklow hails from the Brad Cox barn with Florent Geroux in the driver’s seat. This son of Arch ships in from GP and the barn wins 21% with new arrivals. Geroux wins 19% with closers and 22% teaming up with Brad Cox. The one to beat. #4 He’s No Lemon comes from Graham Motion barn with Rafael Bejarano in the saddle. He’s coming off an 8 month layoff from Laurel. Has a good late punch and a strong finisher.

Golden Gate

Race #7 – The $75,000 Alcatraz Stakes – 1 mile on the turf – 6:15 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #7 – Indian Peak / #5 – Kanderal / #2 – Mylittlerunaway

#7 Indian Peak is a son of Comic Strip and his dam Ms. Booty has 7 starters, 7 winners, and 6 turf winners to her credit. 2nd off, and owns a sharp work for this closer. Looks ready to roll late in the lane. #5 Kanderal hails from the Richard Mandella barn with Juan Hernadez in the saddle. He wins 24% on the turf and Mandella brings this late runner to the race with a strong rider switch who is winning 30% at the meet. #2 Mylittlerunaway is a daughter of Run Away and Hide with Juan Espinoza in the driver’s seat. She is looking for three in a row and has blazing speed. Espinoza wins 14% with runners who sport early speed.

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$20,000 Cash is King Tournament @ BetPTC.com

 Win a Full Berth into the 2021 Pegasus Cup Betting Championship at either Gulfstream Park or Santa Anita (player choice), a $6,000 value, plus $500 travel stipend.

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Please read the rules carefully.  Any questions should be directed to rich.nilsen @ betptc.com

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Wagers for each Saturday begin with the racing day on Saturday late morning.  Wagers made late on Friday night past Midnight ET will NOT count towards Saturday’s scoring. And wagers made on Saturday racing that occur AFTER Midnight ET will count towards Saturday’s scoring.

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Every Saturday that you participate, meet the minimum wagering requirement, and finish in the top 10 weekly standings, you receive 1 point in the Leaderboard contest.

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Every Saturday, June 20 – October 31, 2020.

 

Leaderboard contest Prize Stages:

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Player with the 2nd most points (top 10 weekly finishes) will win the 2nd half $500 runner-up cash prize.

 

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FINALS WEEKEND: November 21-22, 2020.

Weekly Prizes for the Cash Is King X Contest

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Grand Prizes for the Cash Is King XII Championship Finals on November 21-22, 2020.

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Wagering Rules for Finals

Cash Is King XII Championship Finals on November 21-22, 2020.

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Tiebreakers for Prizes:

If there is a tie for the weekly prize, the tie will go to the player who wagered the most money on that Saturday.  If that still does not break the tie, then the player who cashed on the most individual bets will win the tie.  If that still does not break the tie, both players will earn a spot into the Finals.

Ties for the November championship finals’ prizes will be broken based on the player who participated in the most contest Saturdays throughout the year. 

If this does not break the tie, the tie will be broken based on which player wagered the most amount of money over the course of the Finals’ weekend. If this does not break the tie, the player with the most Leaderboard points over the entire year will break the tie.  If that still does not break the tie, a playoff date will be chosen for the two players to compete for the championship prize.

Disclaimers:

BetPTC may at times post information, commentary and/or selections of contest races when appropriate. BetPTC shall not be liable for any inaccurate, incomplete, or missing information that is posted. Such information is posted only to help players make their selections and any opinions or analysis posted by BetPTC regarding the outcome of the races should not be taken as a recommendation of which horses to select.

Each player agrees that BetPTC.com may use his or her name and picture for publicity if they are a prize winner without further compensation.

BetPTC reserves the right to change the contest schedule and rules without notice, or cancel the contest due to unforeseen events.

Tournament Director:

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Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – June 6

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – June 6

by: Ed Meyer

Belmont Park

Race #6 – The G2 Fort Marcy – 1 1/8 on the turf – 3:59 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 – Flop Shot / #7 – Devamani / #8 – Social Paranoia

#4 Flop Shot hails from the barn of Chad Brown with Javier Castellano in the irons. He gets first time Lasix and comes in nine months off the shelf. He ships over from France where Brown wins 30% with overseas runners making the move, and 5 for 5 ITM on the sod. He cuts back in distance, and his dam Dancequest (IRE)  has 2 starters, 2 winners, and 2 turf winners to her credit. #7 Devamani comes from the Chad Brown barn with Joel Rosario in the saddle. He’s a strong closer and just missed at Tampa Bay getting added distance to run today. He’s had a three month layoff and the barn scores at a 30% win clip with rested runners. #8 Social Paranoia goes to post for Todd Pletcher and Manny Franco in the driver’s seat. 3rd off the shelf yields a 22% win rate and he’s 3 for 3 ITM at Belmont. Franco should have him in mid pack ready to strike. He is on an upward move and deserves a solid look.

Race #7 – The G3 Westchester – 1 1/16 – 4:32 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #9 – Code of Honor / #4 – Payne / #1 – Endorsed

#9 Code of Honor comes from the Shug McGaughey barn with John Velasquez getting the call. He’s been off 7 months since the Breeders’ Cup Classic and cuts back in distance on the drop down in class. He’s a mid pack closer with a solid work tab looking to fire fresh and ready. #4 Payne enters in for the Chad Brown barn and Kendrick Carmouche getting the nod. He’s been off for two months and looks for four in a row. An early style runner and Carmouche wins 17% with speedy type runners. He is 3 for 3 ITM at Belmont. #1 Endorsed hails from the Bill Mott barn with Joel Rosario in the saddle. They’re winning 30% as a team. 2nd time off the layoff and an impressive win shipping in from OP. He draws the golden rail where it wins 23%.

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Race  #8 – The G3 Intercontinental – 7f on the turf – 5:04 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Newspaperofrecord / #7 – Regal Glory / #9 – Rose Flower

#5 Newspaperofrecord enters from the Chad Brown barn with Irad Ortiz in the irons. They are winning at a staggering 29% as a team. An early speed style runner and Ortiz scores 23% with these types of runners. Her dam Sunny Times (GB) has 4 starters, 3 winners, and 2 turf winners to her credit. She’s been off 11 months since the G1 Belmont Oaks and may improve with a cut back in distance. #7 Regal Glory comes from the Chad Brown barn with Jose Ortiz in the saddle. A speedy sort who has been off for 7 months since the QE II at KEE. Been working well at Palm Meadows and could be dangerous on the pace. #9 Rose Flower comes in for Christophe Clement and Manny Franco gets the call. She is 1 for 1 at the distance and will come rolling late in the lane. Since shipping over from France she has been turning heads.

Race #9 – The G1 Carter – 7f – 5:36 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #10 – Mind Control / #11 – Vekoma / #5 – Network Effect

#10 Mind Control is a son of Stay Thirsty with John  Velasquez in the irons. Looking for 4 in a row and been away from the races for three months. He stretches out to 7f and Johnny V fits like a glove for this mid pack stalker. #11 Vekoma is a son of Candy Ride with Javier Castellano in the driver’s seat. He’s a closer coming off a two month break where the barn scores 20% with freshened runners. His late punch is impressive down the lane. #5 Network Effect enters in for Chad Brown with Irad Ortiz getting the nod. This late runner is making the 3rd off the layoff run and Ortiz scores 23% with closers. When he and Brown team up good things happen as they win 29% together.

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – Saturday, May 30

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – May 30

by: Ed Meyer

 

Churchill Downs

Race #7 – The G3 Winning Colors – 6f – 4:08 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #8 – Mia Mischief / #7 – Special Perfection / #2 – Break Even

#8 Mia Mischief comes from the Steve Asmussen barn with his go to rider Ricardo Santana in the irons. This daughter of Into Mischief is 7 for 8 ITM at CD and is a horse for the course. This is her 3rd off the layoff move where the barn wins 21% seeking her fourth win in a row. Should be a closeup stalker for a barn who is winning 22% off the last race win. #7 Special Perfection hails from the Mark Casse barn with Javier Castellano getting the nod. This is her 2nd off a layoff effort and was a beaten favorite last out where Team Casse wins 24% looking for payback. A solid closer cutting back in distance and her last race shows plenty of promise. #2 Break Even comes from the Brad Cox barn with Joel Rosario in the saddle. This is her 2nd off the layoff move and is 1 for 1 at CD. Speed galore from this gal, and Rosario wins 27% with early speed. Moving up in class and has a solid morning work under her belt.

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Race #11 – The G3 Mint Julep – 1 1/16 on the turf – 6:16 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #6 – Nay Lady Nay / #13 – Elizabeth Way / #2 – Beau Recall

#6 Nay Lady Nay comes in for the Chad Brown barn with Jose Ortiz in the driver’s seat. She comes in off a 6 month layoff and the barn scores at a 30% win clip on this angle. She is 1 for 1 at CD and drops in class. She is bred for the greensward and Ortiz wins 21% with his late running turf closers. #13 Elizabeth Way is a daughter of Frankel (GB) for Roger Attfield and B.J. Hernandez gets the call. She’s been off two months and cuts back in distance today. Hernandez wins 18% with his turf mounts and we should look for her in the final furlong uncorking a rally. #2 Beau Recall hails from the barn of Brad Cox with Shaun Bridgmohan in the saddle. She is 1 for 1 at CD and was a beaten chalk last out in the G1 Rodeo Drive at SA. Look for her to come calling late for Slam Dunk Racing and Medallion Racing. She is a major danger.

 

Santa Anita

Race #7 – The G3 Honeymoon – 1 1/8 on the turf – 6:30 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 – Croughavouke / #9 – Stella Star / #5 – Laura’s Light

#4 Croughavouke comes from the Jeff Mullins barn with Umberto Rispoli getting the call. A daughter of Dandyman (IRE) coming off a two month layoff. She’s been traveling a mile and should relish the extra distance today. Rispoli wins 21% with his late runners and 23% with his overall turf mounts. #9 Stella Star enters for John Sadler with Flavien Prat aboard. 2nd off the layoff for Sadler where he wins 20%. She was off slow last out, and six wide turning for home. Prat is a turf master and will have her in high gear down the lane. #5 Laura’s Light hails for the Peter Miller barn with Abel Cedillo reuniting. A speedy daughter of Constitution who was a beaten favorite last out. She exits off the poly track at Turfway Park and is 2 for 2 at SA. She can be double trouble if left alone on the lead.

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – May 23

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 5/23/20

by: Ed Meyer

Churchill Downs

Race #10 – The G3 Matt Winn – 1 1/16 miles – 5:44 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #10 – Maxfield / #1 – Mystic Guide / #12 – Major Fed

#10 Maxfield is a son of Street Sense for Brendan Walsh and Jose Ortiz getting the call. He’s a deep closer who’s a perfect 2 for 2 ITM at CD. His last race was 7 months ago and that was an impressive win in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at KEE. Look for a sharp effort today off some sparkling morning works. #1 Mystic Guide is a son of Ghostzapper for Mike Stidham and B.J. Hernandez getting the nod. His last race was a sharp maiden win two months ago. He draws the rail and should come calling late in the lane. Look for a solid effort. #12 Major Fed ships in from FG for Greg Foley and Joel Rosario in the irons. They exit the G2 Lousiana Derby and Rosario wins with 28% of his late running horses.

Santa Anita

Race #5 – The G3 Daytona – 5 1/2f on the turf – 5:30 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Stubbins / #7 – Texas Wedge / #5 – Cistron

#2 Stubbins hails from the Doug O’Neill barn with Umberto Rispoli in the driver’s seat. He is 2 for 3 ITM at SA and 5 for 7 ITM on the greensward. He’s been away from the races for 6 months and owns some bullet works in the morning. Rispoli wins 25% with his late turf runners on the class drop. #7 Texas Wedge is a son of Colonel John who is 2 for 2 ITM at SA. Flavien Prat gets the call for Peter Miller and has a mid pack, late runner. Prat wins 25% with closers and should be a major factor. #5 Cistron comes from the John Sadler barn with Victor Espinoza in the saddle. He is 11 for 14 ITM at SA coming off a 2 month layoff. He seeks three in a row fresh and ready.

Race #8 – The G2 Charles Whittingham – 1 1/4 on the turf – 7:00 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – United / #7 – Rockemporer / #6 – Originaire

#5 United hails from the Richard Mandella barn with Flavien Prat in the driver’s seat. He has a 3 month layoff with an impressive effort in the G2 San Marcos. They have the hot hand of Prat who is 19 for 25 ITM the past week. He had six winners on the card last weekend and was one shy of joining Laffit Pincay’s mark of 7 wins on the card. This son of Giant’s Causeway will come calling late over his home surface. #7 Rockemporer is a son of Holy Roman Emporer (IRE) and is 6 for 8 ITM for Chad Brown. Irad Ortiz gets the call as they ship in from FG. He’s been away for 2 months and Brown scores 27% with his late runners. He has a strong late kick with one of the best finishing riders in the sport. #6 Originaire comes from the Jeff Mullins barn with Umberto Rispoli in the saddle. This son of Zoffany (IRE) has a good late punch and should enjoy the added distance moving forward.

 

 

Horse Racing Analysis – Churchill Downs May 16th

Horse Racing Analysis / Churchill Downs / 5-16-2020

by: Ed Meyer

 

Churchill Downs – Opening Day – Late Pick Four

Race #4 – O.C. $80,000 – 1 mile – 2:32 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Monomoy Girl / #7 – Lady Kate / #1 – MIss Bigly

#2 Monomoy Girl hails from the Brad Cox barn with Florent Geroux in the irons. She is 4 for 4 ITM at CD and been off for a year since winning the BC Distaff. She sports sharp works and the rider and trainer team up to win 28%. She is a perfect stalker and the barn scores 27% with long layoffs. She is 2 for 2 at the distance and loves CD. Look for a big coming out party! #7 Lady Kate comes in from the Eddie Kenneally barn with Jose Ortiz in the saddle. She’s been off two months and should be right off the pace. Add in she was a beaten favorite last out and the barn scores at a 28% win clip looking for payback. #1 Miss Bigly for Michelle Lovell with B.J. Hernandez in the driver’s seat. She is 2 for 2 ITM at CD, and 2 for 2 with wins at the distance. Been on the shelf for 2 months and ships in from FG. Her mid pack style may be effective today.

Late Pick Four

Race #8 – Alw $81,000 – 1 mile on the turf – 4:40 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 – Tankerville / #6 – Labeq / #1 – Bama Breeze

#4 Tankerville is a son of Kitten’s Joy for Bill Mott with John Velasquez getting the nod. First time Lasix shipping in from Ireland, and her dam Starformer has 2 starters, 2 winners, 2 turf winners to her credit. Johnny V is 34% ITM with turf runners and must be respected coming from the Mott barn. #6 Labeq is a son of Tapit for Mike Maker and Joe Talamo in the saddle. He’s a deep closer and enjoys turf with plenty of cut in the ground. He’s been off 7 months and bred to enjoy the greensward. He’s coming over from the Kiaran McLaughlin barn as he retired from training. Maker does well with new runners winning at a 15% clip. #1 Bama Breeze is a closer from the Rusty Arnold barn with Julien Leproux in the irons. He won at first asking eight months ago, and the barn wins 18% with allowance runners. He is bred to enjoy the sod.

Race #9 – Claiming $50,000 N2L – 7f – 5:12 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Patrol / #12 – Admire / #2 – Adhhar

#1 Patrol hails from the Mark Casse barn with B.J. Hernandez getting the call. 2nd time off the layoff where they win 18% and drop down in class with sharp morning works. They are shipping in from GP and draw the rail post today. He’s a major danger at a square price. #12 Admire is a son of Cairo Prince for Dale Romans and Ricardo Santana. A stalker shipping in from GP making a drop down the class ladder. He has faced much tougher in the past and goes from a route to a sprint where the barn wins 19%. #2 Adhhar comes in for Thom Amoss and Joe Talamo getting the nod. They win 21% when they team up, and making the 2nd off the claim move yields a 39% win clip. His 3rd place finish last out was a good building block moving forward for this late runner.

Race #10 – O.C. $75,000 – 7f – 5:44 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Portrait / #8 – Four Games / #11 – Aurelia Garland

#2 Portrait is a daughter of Tapizar for Brad Cox and Javier Castellano in the irons. She’s been off for 3 months and shipping in from FG. She was a beaten favorite last out and sports some sharp works coming in the day. Brad Cox wins 30% with a beaten favorite coming back to win. #8 Four Games hails from the barn of Ian Wilkes and Julien Leparoux getting the nod. Goes from a sprint to a route and wins 17% on this angle. She’s a speedy gal and should be on or near the front. Ships in from GP as a beaten favorite cutting back to a sprint. #11 Aurelia Garland is a daughter of Constitution winning at first asking at Belmont a year ago. She has been working lights out at Palm Meadows for Rudy Brisset and Jose Ortiz in the irons. If she’s ready, her early foot will be dangerous on the lead.

Race #11 – Allowance – 5 1/2f on the turf – 6:16 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 – Karak / #8 – Fashionable Lady / #9 – Bredenbury

#4 Karak hails from the Wesley Ward barn with Gerardo Corrales in the saddle. Impressive winner at TP in the Cincinnati Trophy coming off a three month layoff. I like the poly to turf switch and Wesley Ward is sharp at spotting his runners in the perfect race. #8 Fashionable Lady is a daughter of Declaration of War from the barn of Michael Ewing and Florent Geroux. An off the pace filly getting first Lasix. She’s been off 11 months and owns a won a win over the track with a medication change. Dangerous runner at a price. #9 Bredenbury comes from the Graham Motion barn with John Velasquez in the driver’s seat. Been off for three months and cuts back to a sprint. The rider switch is a plus and shipping in from Tampa may be a nice change of scenery.