Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – January 18th

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis / January 18

by: Ed Meyer

 

Aqueduct

Race #8 – The G-3 Toboggan – 7f – 3:55 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – American Anthem / #4 – Nicodemus / #3 – Arch Cat

#2 American Anthem has been away for three months and was a beaten chalk at KEE last out. This son of Bodemeister comes from the barn of Danny Gargan. He has a solid work tab and the services of Manny Franco today. Our horse racing analysis top pick.  #4 Nicodemus is a son of Candy Ride for trainer Linda Rice winning 26% at the meet. Huge class dropper today and makes his first start of the year. He’s a closer and cuts back in distance today. His bullet work shows all systems are go. #3 Arch Cat is a son of Arch for Daniel Velasquez. Ships in from Laurel and takes a hike up the class ladder. He rallied strong last out and has a new rider with Eric Cancel.

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Fair Grounds

Race #10 – The G3 Louisiana Stakes – 1 1/16 – 5:21 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #1- My Boy Jack / #3 – Blended Citizen / #4 – Gun It

#1 My Boy Jack is a long range closer and been off three months. He switches from turf to dirt and has faced some tough guys in the past. The freshening and rail draw is a plus and Kent D should be motoring late in the lane. #3 Blended Citizen comes from the barn of Brad Cox who comes to post off as a beaten favorite in the $75,000 Tenacious. This son of Proud Citizen looks ready for a strong 2020 sporting a bullet work over the FG strip. #4 Gun It is 3rd off for trainer Steve Asmussen who wins 22% on this move. This son of Tapit is 3 for 4 ITM at FG and sports early speed. Santana wins 19% with his early runners.

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Race #13 – The G-3 Lecomte – 1 1/16 – 6:55 pm EDT

BetPTC.com / #4 – Scabbard / #9 – Silver Slate / #1 – Finnick the Fierce

#4 Scabbard is a son of More Than Ready for Eddie Kenneally with Corey Lanerie in the irons. Been off two months since the BC Juvenile and the rider is 9 for 14 ITM this past week. He’s a late runner who should benefit from an early pace. He had a brief layoff at Palm Meadows and may fire fresh off the rest. #9  Silver Slate comes in for Steve Asmussen and Ricardo Santana. They are shipping in from CD and exits an impressive race coming off slow and missed by a nose. His dam Supreme has 4 starts, and 4 wins to her credit winning 100% with her babies. #1 Finnick the Fierce has been off 49 days for trainer Rey Hernandez. He’s been working well and draws the rail with Kentucky rider Sonny Leon. Look for him late in the lane at a big price.

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Dubai Carnival Live Blog – Thursday, Jan 16

Hong Kong Jockey Club Week In Review 01/08, 01/11

by expert Dick Powell

 

19 races

6 favorites won – 32%

12.84 average field size

$13.99 average win price

 

JOCKEYS                                            TRAINERS

4 wins Vincent Ho                                 3 wins Francis Lui

2 wins Zac Purton                                 3 wins Doug Whyte

2 wins Tony Piccone                              3 wins Jimmy Ting

2 wins Grant van Niekerek                     2 wins Michael Chang

2 wins Sylvester de Sousa                     2 wins Ricky Yiu

 

Hong Kong Jockey Club Meet In Review 9/01 – 01/11

 

332 races (one dead-heat)

98 favorites won – 29.52%

12.40 average field size

$19.444 average win price

 

JOCKEYS                                            TRAINERS

56 wins Joao Moreira                            33 wins Ricky Yiu

31 wins Zac Purton                               27 wins Francis Lui

34 wins Karis Teetan                             24 wins Danny Shum

28 wins Vincent Ho                                23 wins Doug Whyte

22 wins Grant van Niekirk                      18 wins Frankie Lor

14 wins Chad Schofield                         18 Caspar Fownes

18 Tony Cruz

 

Next Race Meets:

 

Wednesday morning          Happy Valley           01/15/20       First Post: 5:45am EST

Saturday night                   Sha Tin                   01/18/20       First Post: 11:15pm EST

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – January 11th

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis for BetPTC.com / January 11th

by: Ed Meyer

Gulfstream Park

Race #8 – Marshua’s River – 1 1/16 on the turf – 3:34 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 – Sweet Bye and Bye / #5 – Andina Del Sur / #3 – Magic Star

#4 Sweet Bye and Bye is a daughter of Sky Mesa for the Steve Klesaris barn. She is a beaten favorite and the barn comes back to score 19% on this move. Luis Saez has the call aboard a stalking type gal shipping in from AQU where the barn is 43% ITM. Look for a stout move rounding the far turn. #5 Andina Del Sur is a daughter of Giant’s Causeway with Javier Castellano in the irons for Thom Albertrani. She is 4 for 5 ITM over the course and her dam Andina (IRE) has 4 starters, 3 winners, and 3 turf winners to her credit. A late running sort who will fit nicely into Castellano’s hands where he wins 20% with closers. #3 Magic Star is a daughter of Scat Daddy for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz. She’s been off for two months and Brown wins 28% with his shippers and 23% with graded stakes. She’s a long range closer stepping up in class and Ortiz scores at a 21% with late runners.

 

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Race #10 – The G3 Tropical Turf – 1 mile on the turf – 4:38 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections /#8 – A Thread of Blue / #6 – Tusk / #9 – Exulting

#8 A Thread of Blue is a speedy type for the Kiaran McLaughlin barn with Luis Saez in the saddle. He is 3 for 3 with wins over the course and Saez is an excellent speed rider winning 21% of his early running mounts. He was a beaten chalk last out and ships in from Belmont where the barn scores at a 20% win clip. #6 Tusk is a stalking sort from the Saffie Joseph barn with Tyler Gaffalione in the saddle. They are winning 33% as a team and 2nd off the layoff. Last out he was held up in traffic and gave a late sustained effort. #9 Exulting is a son of Tapit for the Mike Maker barn. Irad Ortiz gets the nod and is a late runner. He floated 6 wide last out and finished 5th. With a cleaner trip he can come rolling late in the lane.

 

Santa Anita

Race #3 – The G-3 Las Cienegas – 5 1/2f on the turf – 4:30 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Storm the Hill / #4 – An Eddie Surprise / #5 – Free Cover

#1 Storm the Hill is a long range closer for Phil D’Amato and Flavien Prat in the irons. She is 2nd off the layoff and makes the route to a sprint move today where the barn wins 22%. This daughter of Get Stormy is a closer and Prat wins 23% with his turf runners. A drop in class and cutting back to a sprint may be what the doctor ordered. #4 An Eddie Surprise comes from the Doug O’Neill barn and Mario Gutierrez who is wining at 30%. She is 13 for 15 ITM over the course and 1 for 1 at the distance. She jumps up in class and can come rolling in the lane. #5 Free Cover makes the dirt to turf move today. This daughter of Congrats drops down the class ladder and may be in a perfect stalking position.

 

Race #8 – The G3 La Canada – 1 1/16 – 7:00 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #7 – Spiced Perfection / #4 – Message / #3 – Queen Bee to You

#7 Spiced Perfection comes from the barn of Peter Miller picking up Joel Rosario in the saddle. They won the G3 Go For Wand and the trainer wins 24% off a last race win. She’s a solid stalker who is 5 for 6 ITM over the course. #4 Message hails from the Bob Baffert barn with Mike Smith in the irons. She has plenty of early speed and 2 for 2 ITM over the strip. She makes a jump in class and may be tough to catch. #3 Queen Bee to You is 7 for 9 ITM over the course and exits an impressive win in the G-3 Bayakoa. She is looking for her third straight win and should get a stalking trip under Ruben Fuentes who wins 18% with this style of runner.

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – Jan. 4 – BetPTC.com

BetPTC.com / Graded Stakes Preview

by: Ed Meyer

Gulfstream Park

Race #7 – The G-3 Kitten’s Joy – 7 1/2f on turf – 3:00 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #8 – Island Commish / #9 – Summer to Remember / #2- Irish Miss

#8 Island Commish comes from the barn of Joe Saffie and steps up in class after a 45 day layoff. He seeks his 3rd straight with Paco Lopez in the saddle. Lopez wins 27% of his turf mounts and is three for three ITM on the green. A stalker who should be in good hands as Lopez wins 27% of his stalkers just off the pace. #9 Summer to Remember is a son of Summer Front for Todd Pletcher and Luis Saez in the irons. He was impressive winning at GP and is 2 for 2 ITM on the turf. He should be close to pace and is 1 for 1 ITM over the course. #2 Irish Miss is a son of Sky Mesa for Graham Motion and Rajiv Maragh in the saddle. He cuts back in distance and should benefit on this move.

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Santa Anita

Race #5 – The G-3 Sham – 1 mile – 4:30 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Authentic / #4 – Azul Coast / #5 – Scoring

#1 Authentic comes from the barn of Bob Baffert. He was impressive wining at DM under Drayden Van Dyke coming off a 56 day layoff. The barn wins 28% off a brief layoff. He gets the acid test and should be close from the break. #4 Azul Coast comes from the Bob Baffert barn and is a son of Super Saver. Joel Rosario gets the call and the  barn wins 28% with dirt runners. He will be rolling late in the lane. #5 Scoring is a son of Justin Phillips who was put up in a DQ his first outing. Abel Cedillo gets the nod and wins 24% with route runners. He makes the jump from 4 1/2f to a mile and should be placed in mid pack. His dam High Heeled Hope has 12 starters, 10 winners, and 2 stakes winners to her credit.

 

Race #8 – The G-2 San Gabriel – 1 1/8 on turf – 6:00 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #3- Cleopatra’s Strike / #4 – Overdue / #6 – Majestic Eagle

#3 Cleopatra’s Strike is a son of Smart Strike for Phil D’Amato. He is a long range closer who is 2 for 2 ITM over the course. The barn wins 21% 2nd time off the layoff. He faced some tough runners and should be making a solid run as they turn for home. #4 Overdue comes from the Phil D’Amato barn making his 2nd start off the layoff. Mike Smith gets the nod and and cuts back in distance today. #6 Majestic Eagle comes in for Neil Drysdale and is 8 for 10 ITM over the course. This son of Medaglia d’ Oro is a solid closer Rafael Bejarano in the irons is a plus.

BetPTC.com Graded Stakes Preview – Dec. 28

BetPTC.com / Weekend Stakes Preview

by: Ed Meyer

Santa Anita

Race #6 – The G1 American Oaks – 1 1/4 on turf – 4:30 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Lady Prancealot / #7 – Giza Goddess / #3 – Mucho Unusual

#5 Lady Prancealot comes from the Richard Baltas barn and is 5 for 6 ITM at SA. This daughter of Sir Prancealot (IRE) is bred to enjoy the turf and has Jersey Joe Bravo in the irons. She’s a long range closer who can come calling from the back of the pack. She fires fresh off a layoff and has a solid work tab coming in. #7 Giza Goddess is a daughter of Cairo Prince for John Sheriffs and sports good early speed. This is her 3rd off the layoff move and is 2 for 2 ITM at SA. Victor Espinoza gets the nod and look for her to be early paced from the break. #3 Mucho Unusual 

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Race #7 – The G1 La Brea – 7f – 5:00 PM EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – First Star / #5 – Bellafina / #6 – Bell’s the One

#1 First Star is a daughter of First Dude for trainer Ron Ellis. She is 3 for 3 ITM lifetime and has two straight bullet works from her two month vacation. Drayden Van Dyke in the saddle and she is a perfect stalker who draws the rail slot. #5 Bellafina is a daughter of Quality Road with Flavien Prat in the irons. She’s been away for 56 days and exits the BC F&M Sprint off a closing effort coming up a bit short of the win. Her last couple works show promise and Prat wins 23% with his sprint mounts. #6 Bell’s the One is a stout closer from the Neil Pessin barn with Javier Castellano in the irons. She is 3 for 3 ITM going the distance and Castellano wins 23% with his sprint runners.

Race #9 – The G1 Malibu – 7f – 6:00 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selection / #5 – Omaha Beach / #3 – Manny Wah / #2 – Complexity

#5 Omaha Beach comes from the barn of Richard Madella with Mike Smith in the saddle. This son of War Front was a beaten 2nd in the BC Dirt Mile and is 4 for 4 ITM at SA. Three straight bullets and the ability to fire fresh is a great gift for this son of War Front. #3 Manny Wah is 2nd off the layoff for Baffert barn with Channing Hill retaining the mount. He ships in from Mahoning Valley winning 30% on the move. He’s a closer and stretches out from 6f to 7 panels. #2 Complexity is a speedy sort from the Chad Brown barn. He is 2nd off the layoff and the barn wins 24% on this move. Javier Castellano in the driver’s seat. His last win may be a great way to end the year and kick off 2020.

BetPTC.com Weekend Stakes Preview – Dec. 21

BetPTC.com / Weekend Stakes Preview 

by: Ed Meyer

Fair Grounds

Race #7 – The Bonapaw Stakes – 5 1/2f on the turf – 3:54pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Fast Boat / #3 – Made You Look / #9 – Wilbo

#1 Fast Boat is a son of City Zip for Joe Sharp with Adam Beschizza in the irons. He’s a closer drawing the rail who’s 2 for 3 ITM at FG. His last race at KEE on the turf was ultra-impressive and rallied quickly on the outside after getting knocked around. #3 Made You Look is a son of More Than Ready for the Phillip Bauer barn. Florent Geroux gets the nod for this late runner and ships in from Belmont where he made a nice closing effort on the lush greensward. They turn back in distance and he is 1 for 1 ITM sprinting. Geroux wins 18% with his turf mounts. #9 Wilbo is a son of Candy Ride for the Chris Hartman barn with Corey Lanerie aboard. This is his 3rd off the layoff and the trainer scores 16% off this move. He’s a late runner and will be motoring late in the lane.

Race #9 – The Blushing K.D.  – 1 1/16 on the turf – 4:52 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #8 – Dream Passage / #5 – Notapradaprice / #4 – La Signare

#8 Dream Passage hails from the Brad Cox barn winning at 18%. Colby Hernandez gets the nod as she seeks her 4th straight win. She comes in from AQU off a win and the barn scores 29% off a last race win. She’ll be close to the pace and looks to make a solid move turning for home. #5 Notapradaprice has solid speed for the Eddie Kenneally barn with Corey Lanerie in the saddle. She drops in class exiting the G3 Cardinal at CD and is 6 for 9 ITM at the distance. #4 La Signare is a perfect stalking sort and exits much better company from her past. This is her 2nd start for the Brendan Walsh barn and they win 18% with shippers. She was a beaten chalk last out at KEE and looks to turn the tables today.

Race #11 – The Buddy Diliberto – 1 1/16 on the turf – 5:50 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #13 – Dot Matrix / #12 – Factor This / #2- Renaisance Frolic

#13 Dot Matrix is a son of Freud for trainer Brad Cox. He is 3 for 3 ITM at FG and ships in from AQU from the G3 Red Smith. Shaun Bridgmohan in the saddle and he wins 15% with Cox as a team. He’s a stalker and should get a perfect trip on the outside staying out of trouble. He’s bred for the turf and this New York bred can give them all they want. #12 Factor This is a speedy son of The Factor for Brad Cox. He may hold all the cards with a rabbit and a stalker from the outside. Florent Geroux has the call and look for him to come out swinging when the gate breaks. #2 Renaisance Frolic is a son of Paynter and has plenty of early foot breaking from the inside. He ships in from CD for David Fawkes and James Graham. He seeks his 4th straight and can be dangerous if he grabs a solo lead. He’s been off 48 days and ships in fresh.

 

 

BetPTC.com Graded Stakes Preview – Dec 14

BetPTC.com / Weekend Stakes Preview

by: Ed Meyer

Gulfstream Park

Race #6 – The G3 Sugar Swirl – 6f – 2:30 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 – Lady’s Island / #3 – A Bit of Both / #6 – Stormy Embrace

#4 Lady’s Island comes from the Georgina Baxter barn winning 33% at the meet. She is 7 for 7 ITM at GP and seeks her 5th win in a row. She’s been on the shelf for 45 days and sports a quick turn of foot from the break. She makes the turf to dirt switch and has a sharp work to prepare for Emisael Jaramillo. #3 A Bit of Both is the daughter of Paynter for Jason Servis and Paco Lopez aboard. This is her 3rd off the layoff and the barn wins 26% on this move. She’s a solid stalker and 5 for 5 ITM at GP. Look for her up close tracking the leader. #6 Stormy Embrace comes in for trainer Kathleen O’Connell and is 10 for 13 over the strip. She cuts back from 7f and has the services of Luis Saez. Look for a stalking trip in mid pack and Saez to cut her loose at the top of the lane.

Race #8 – The G3 Rampart – 1 mile – 3:30 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #9 – Baccarat Fashion / #7 – Pink Sands / #3 – Molto Bella

#9 Baccarat Fashion comes from the barn of Peter Walder winning 29% at the meet shooting for three in a row. She’s been off for 51 days and sports a sharp workout. She’s a stalker with Albarado in the irons. #7 Pink Sands is a long range closer for Shug McGaughey. This daughter of Tapit is 2 for 3 ITM at GP and goes from a sprint to a route where they win 24%. Jose Ortiz is in the driver’s seat. #3 Molto Bella comes in for Ian Wilkes and B.J. Hernadez in the saddle. A mid pack stalker shipping in from CD and gets added distance to run at today. 

Race #9 – The G2 Ft. Lauderdale – 1 1/8 on the turf – 4:00 pm EDT 

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Channel Cat / #8 – Admission Office / #7 – Cross Border

#5 Channel Cat is a son of English Cat for Todd Pletcher and John Velasquez. He is 4 for 5 ITM over the course and ships in from SA in the BC Turf. The drop in class and brief rest may have this closer in top order. Pletcher is off to a great start at the meet and winning 50%. #8 Admission Office is a son of Point of Entry. This is his 3rd off the layoff where Brian Lynch wins 19% and his last race was a good indicator of things to come. #7 Cross Border comes in for trainer Mike Maker and ships down from AQU off a win. He’s a mid pack closer and Saez wins 19% with closers.

Race #10 – The G-3 Harlan’s Holiday – 1 1/16 – 4:30 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Prince Lucky / #3 – Red Crescent / #5 – War Story

#1 Prince Lucky is a speedy gelding for Todd Pletcher. John Velasquez draws the mount and gets the rail. He’s been off 49 days and the trainer has been red hot the past two weeks going 6 for 8 ITM. Catch him if you’re going to beat him. #3 Red Crescent is a son of Overdriven and has Tyler Gaffalione in the irons. He’s a mid pack stalker and should get a solid pace to monitor. #5 War Story comes in for Elizabeth Dobles and has a good deal of early speed. Luis Saez gets the nod and will have to do battle with Lucky Prince. He’s faced some tough players and can easily bring his “A” game to the table.

 

BetPTC.com Graded Stakes Preview – Dec. 7

BetPTC.com Selections / Weekend Stakes Preview

By: Ed Meyer

Aqueduct Race #6 – The G3 Go for Wand – 1 mile – 2:09 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #3- Spiced Perfection / #6 – Our Super Nova / #4 – Another Broad

#3 Spiced Perfection comes in 3rd off the layoff exiting the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. She takes a huge drop in class, and go back two races where she won the G2 TCA at Kee as she’ll be rolling late for the Peter Miller barn with Javier Castellano in the irons. They are winning 43% as a team and the 3rd off move yields a 23% win clip. #6 Our Super Nova is a New York bred who loves the oval going 3 for 6 ITM at AQU. She is 6 for 6 ITM at the distance and owns a red hot work going 4f in 47.1. Junior Alvarado has the call for Charlton Baker. #4 Another Broad is a daughter of Include for Todd Pletcher and Eric Cancel gets the nod. 3rd off the layoff gets a 22% win clip and 2 for 2 ITM at AQU is promising. She’ll come calling late in the lane and the cutback in distance may have her moving quickly.

Race #8 – The G2 Demoisel – 1 1/8 – 3:13 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Alandra / #10 – Daphne Moon / #12 – Lake Avenue

#5 Alandra is a daughter of Blame for Shug McGaughey. She was a beaten favorite at KEE last out in the G1 Alcibiades and has been off for two months. She should be forwardly placed under Joel Rosario and they score 33% as a team. The rider has been hot the past week going 8 for 12 ITM. #10 Daphne Moon is a daughter of Cairo Prince for Jeremiah Engelhardt with Jose Ortiz in the saddle. She stumbled at the break in the G1 Frizette and still come on to finish 5th. She drops down in class and this closer will come rolling late under Ortiz who wins 23% with routes. #12 Lake Avenue is a daughter of Tapit and is bred to get the distance. Bill Mott is the trainer with Junior Alvarado in the irons. A tactical runner who should stalk just off the leaders. Her work at Belmont is promising and Alvarado wins 20% with early type runners.

Race #9 – The G-2 Remsen – 1 1/8 – 3:43 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Chase Tracker / #4 – Ajaaweed / #8 – Alpha Sixty Six

#1 Chase Tracker is a son of Verrazano for Todd Pletcher with Javier Castellano in the saddle. This is his 3rd off effort and exits the G3 Nashua going 5 wide while closing nicely. 2nd time going a route race yields a 28% win clip for the barn. #4 Ajaaweed is a son of Curlin for Kiaran McLaughlin with Joel Rosario in the irons. He’s been off two months exiting the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at KEE and was caught five wide, He’ll be running late dropping in class with a solid morning work. #8 Alpha Sixty Six comes in for the Pletcher barn and takes off the blinkers where they win 22%. John Velasquez in the driver’s seat and this closer comes off a 2 month layoff and may enjoy the equipment change. Johnny V wins 28% with route races and drops down the class ladder. This son of Liam’s Map can pick up the leaders late in the lane and JV wins 20% with closers.