Helloooo from Minnesota!! It’s 43 degrees in May – definitely Derby weather!
The main Australian racing is from Morphetteville, a track I never play, and the Kentucky Derby is coming up (have you heard of it?), so I thought I’d write my observations on that race instead this week. But instead of focusing on my selections and breaking down the race, I thought I would analyze my fellow horseplayers.
Selection orientation vs. Value orientation: Most horseplayers are SELECTION oriented. By that I mean they focus on picking winners without regard to whether a horse’s odds offer a fair return. This is especially true in big races like the Kentucky Derby, where they settle on horses with proven track records that most likely will offer negative value (California Chrome), or horses with bigger prices that have not demonstrated the ability to succeed under the conditions for the race, just because the price is large. This often leads to what some analysts call the crowd’s “Favorite/Longshot bias,” meaning horsesplayers bet too much on underlaid favorites AND horses with big prices without regard to ability, which can hurt their bankrolls.
I might be dead wrong about this, but I think a horse that fits this “big odds/lack of success” category in this year’d Derby is Ride On Curlin, who has never won a race longer than 6 furlongs in his career and comes from a female family of top six and seven furlong sprinters. His best speed figures have also come in short sprint races. Most handicappers are putting this horse not just as a chance to hit the superfecta but as a key win candidate.
There are several horses that I think have a better chance to win, and hopefully that will lead to me (and maybe you) having a successful wagering in the 2014 Kentucky Derby. Without boring you all with the details, I like Intense Holiday, Danza, Medal Count and General a Rod, in that order, because they all have the ability to rate in the top half of the field early and should get first run on what I expect will be a torrid speed duel. I think the half mile split will be less than 46 seconds for sure, and I believe California Chrome will get stuck in the middle of it, eliminating his chances for the win.
Good luck in your 2014 Derby betting, and hopefully some of my picks will help you out.