Well we are here we have a Triple Crown on the line, just what every race fan on earth wants … 3 weeks of complete goose bumps. We all will go over the Belmont 100 times in next 3 weeks trying to find every and any way that Pharoah can lose.   I have seen stumbles, shoes come off, bad ride after bad ride, horses get pulled up for no reason and even a horse in Silver Charm that just got beat.

So how will American Pharoah lose? He sure figures to lose they all do except 11 of them right? He could get left in the gate, stumble, or Victor could grab him like he did Chrome and take away all chances at the start? By all indications he was very tired after carrying a ton of weight with the water added in and blowing the doors off them. Rain or shine that won’t hurt him we know that already so the Funny Cide debacle won’t happen. So what will happen?

We now have barn security so no one will try to sneak into his stall throw pins in their or stick a needle in the horse. So that is over right?

All these myths or truths depending on who you listen too are all over. Right?

So How can he or will he lose?

Well IF the gate opens, IF he comes out and doesn’t get crushed, IF he is sent to the lead , Well then I think he will win.

He has the advantage of his riders brutal failure just last year with a miserable decision to rate a speed horse going this distance and simply got him beat by inferior horses because of rider error. His rider has learned and the Preakness was a testing point. SEND HIM YOUNG MAN.   I can hear my dad screaming.

The fractions don’t matter for this horse. Just get to the lead.

That leaves the dead closers.

Mubtaahij, Madefromlucky, and Frosted the 3 logical ones as the others are simply too slow.

Mubtaahij on big sandy I just can’t see being anywhere in reality.   Madefromlucky is a HUGE upset chance and with Pletcher and his style could be the Birdstone staggering after Pharoah in the stretch. See you have Pletcher sending Materiality to mess with Pharoah hoping Carpe or Madefromlucky can be running at the end.   Team work a lot like Baffert just used at the Preakness. Now we are on Pletchers turf.

Frosted of course will be the second choice and with KM being so hot he figures on everyone’s radar that he could win.

So as I see this, Pharoah has 2 horses to beat and he will be 5-7 lengths in front of both with 4 furlongs to go if ridden correctly.   So the chances of a Triple Crown winner are very high.

Dan Cronin

FatBaldGuyracing

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