Australian Racing (Night of Friday, Feb 13th, Western Hemisphere Time)

A lot of good racing on tap for Friday night.  I hope people get a chance to watch some of this Aussie product on their ADW of choice, or go to australianracing.com and sign up to get the live stream for FREE!!

Weather:  

Sydney (Randwick) – Partly Cloudy, high of 83 degrees.

Melbourne (Caulfield) – Overcast, 35% chance of rain.  High of 85 degrees.

 

How am I doing?

Since this blog re-started on February 5, 2015 Top selections have won 1 for 3 (33%) with a flat bet profit of 35%.

 

Race 1A (Randwick):  6 furlongs – 9:05 PM EST. Class level BM 80 (similar to North American N2x/$62,500 clm).

Race 1A Picks (5-2-4): Top #5 Selectify 2nd Pick #2 Weinholt 3rd pick #4 Spy Decoder

#5 Selectify (anticipated odds of 7/2) is a typical late-developing Aussie horse that is getting hot at the right time.  He has a lot of speed or can close from mid pack and should have the ability to hug the rail and save energy early.  Not a dominant pick but has many good points.

#2 Weinholt (anticipated odds of 5/1) has had an up and down career but fits with this bunch on total earnings and earnings per start, along with owning three wins at this 6 furlong distance.  Might need some racing luck on the inside from the rail post but seems dangerous.  The last race at Flemington was probably a prep for this race.

#4 Spy Decoder is an OK horse that on occasion can put in a huge run.  Would be an interesting pick 3/pick 4 horse but I will try to beat it as the early money indicates this one will be the 3/1 post-time favorite.

 

Race 2B (Caulfield):  6 furlongs – 10:07 PM EST. Class level: 3yo fillies Group 3 (similar to North American Grade 3).

Race 2B Picks (2-6-7-1):

Top #2 Afleet Esprit 2nd Pick #6 Royal Snitzel 3rd pick #7 Thinking of you

#6 Afleet Esprit (anticipated odds of 5/2, Today’s BEST BET), in her last series of races (Aussies call this a “prep”) won four wins and a second in five sprint races.  She also has won off a layoff in the past, and she’s two wins for two starts at six furlongs.  Not a huge price but I am expecting a big run.

#6  Royal Snitzel (anticipated odds of 6/5) is a win-type but its speed figures aren’t as good as Afleet Esprit’s, and Royal Snitzel has never won a Group race and Afleet Esprit has.  In Royal Snitzel’s favor she has the best early speed in the field and top sprinting trainer Mick Price is pushing the buttons.

#4 Thinking Of You (anticipated odds of 6/1) is a really good horse who probably wants longer but can definitely hit the board in this race.

 

Race 5A (Randwick):  6 furlongs – 11:35 PM EST. Class level: 3yo fillies Group 2 (similar to North American Grade 2).

Race 5A Picks (1-8-6-3):

Top #1 Mossfun 2nd Pick #8 Onemorezeta 3rd pick #6 Winx

#1 Mossfun (anticipated odds of 7/2), won the world’s richest race limited to two year olds, the Golden Slipper in April of 2014.  Laid off until now, she shows two trials and my thinking on the layoff was her connections wanted to save her for the Sydney-based “Championships” that will be run over the next few months.  From what I know of her training team, if she wasn’t 110% she would not be back racing.  If she doesn’t run well tonight, however, it is probably good to avoid her in future races; often horses that run in the Slipper don’t come back as good at 3.

#8 Onemorezeta (anticipated odds of 5/1) is a win-type on the up and has won sprinting around a bend and down the Flemington straight course.  Seems to be the “X” factor in here and may be overlooked in the exotics.

#6 WInx (anticipated odds of 6/1) has faced some real toughies (including anticipated post-time favorite First Seal) and maybe came out second best but she should get a dream run along the rail and if she is going to beat a good field, this could be the race.

 

Race 6B (Randwick):  5 and 1/2 furlongs – 12:35 AM EST Saturday. Class level: Open Group 2 (similar to North American Grade 2).

Race 6B Picks (9-1-7):

Top #9 Eloping 2nd Pick #1 Chautauqua 3rd pick #7 Atmospherical

#9 Eloping (anticipated odds of 8/1) is the speed of the speed and will take this field as far as she can.  #10 Oakleigh Girl might press the top pick but there is a lot of evidence that Eloping is the quicker and tougher mare.

#1 Chautauqua (anticipated odds of 4/5) is arguably one of the top 10 sprinters in the world.  Coming off the layoff and with some huge races coming up in Melbourne down the Flemington straight, the incentive for his connections to win tonight is fairly small.  This race is to get him ready for the Melbourne sprints.  Not worth 4/5 to win in my mind but of his huge speed figures this one is almost an automatic inclusion in the exotics.

#7 Atmospherical (anticipated odds of 8/1) is four wins at four starts at the tricky 5 and 1/2 furlong (1100m) distance.  He is on the improve and his speed figures are competitive with everybody except Chautauqua’s top races.

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