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Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – May 15 Preakness Day

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 5/15/2021

by: Ed Meyer

Pimlico Race#11 – The G3 Maryland Sprint – 6f – 4:41pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Strike Power / #2 – Yodel E.A. Who / #8 – Special Reserve

#5 Strike Power is a speedster from the Steve Asmussen barn with Ricardo Santana in the saddle. He ships in from OP and the barn scores 20% making the trip. Santana wins 21% with speed style runners and wins 26% teaming up with Asmussen. Look for a quick break and off to the lead with this son of Speightstown. #2 Yodel E. A. Who is a stalker who makes his 3rd start off the layoff.  Sheldon Russell wins 26% with stalkers and scores a 36% win clip with trainer Brittany Russell. They make the trip off a solid effort at Belmont and should be in mid pack looking to pounce.  #8 Special Reserve hails from the Mike Maker barn shipping in off a sharp effort at KEE. He cuts back in distance from 7f for Mike Maker with Irad Ortiz in the irons. Ortiz is an excellent judge of pace and should keep him right off the pace looking to get in the game as they turn for home.

 

Race#12 – The G2 Dinner Party – 1 1/16 on the turf – 5:38 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Sacred Life / #1 – Somelikeithotbrown/ #3 – Kuramata

#5 Sacred Life is a strong closer from the Chad Brown barn with Javier Castellano in the saddle. They are making their 2nd start of the year shipping in from KEE off a fast closing effort in the G1 Makers Mile. He drops down in class and is 13 for 17 ITM on the greensward. He gets added distance and is 5 for 5 ITM going this far. Castellano wins 18% with late runners and should be a major danger. #1 Somelikeithotbrown hails from the Mike Maker barn with Jose Ortiz in the driver’s seat. This son of Big Brown shows quick foot and should be on the engine with an excellent speed rider. He caught a yielding turf course last year in the same race and ran a game second. Ortiz will be looking to finish the job turning for home. #3 Kuramata is a lightly raced son of Australia (GB) for the Chad Brown barn. He is two for two in the states and gets the acid test today moving up the ladder. Irad Ortiz is a very strong finisher and will come calling as they turn for home. The barn scores at a 23% clip in graded stakes.

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Race#13 – The G1 Preakness – 1 3/16 – 6:47 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Midnight Bourbon / #3-Medina Spirit / #4 – Crowded Trade

#5 Midnight Bourbon is an early runner who exits the Derby from a rough trip. Bumped from the start and forced wide on both turns. The Steve Asmussen trainee has Irad Ortiz in the saddle and he’s a tough rider who will secure a good spot. Ortiz wins 28% with early runners and cuts back in distance that may fit his needs. He is 7 for 8 ITM lifetime and always brings his top game. I’m looking for a closeup trip gauging the pace. #3 Medina Spirit went wire to wire in the Derby for Bob Baffert. John Velasquez in the saddle and should have him up close. He’s been all the talk since winning the Derby, and the only one right now who can take the Triple Crown. I think we’ll see a close to the lead trip, and if he brings his top game may be tough to run down. #4 Crowded Trade is a lightly raced son of More Than Ready for Chad Brown. Javier Castellano gets the call and will be rolling late in the lane versus a field laden with speed. He finished a game third in the G3 Wood and got a few solid works under his belt keeping fresh and ready. They switch over to Castellano who wins 20% with late runners and should be a player in the field.

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – May 8

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Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 5/8/2021

by: Ed Meyer

Belmont Park Race#7 – The G3 Vagrancy – 6 1/2f dirt – 4:06 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #6 – Pacific Gale / #7 – French Empire / #3 – Victim of Love

#6 Pacific Gale is a daughter of Flat Out is seeking three straight with John Velasquez in the irons for John Kimmel. She is 7 for 10 ITM at BEL and loves the distance. She’s been off 49 days and looks to stalk just off the lead. Since losing Lasix in her stakes she appears to have found another gear. #7 French Empire is a deep closer for Brad Cox with Javier Castellano in the saddle. She seeks her 5th in a row and ships in from OP. She steps up in class and needs a pace to run down. Look for Javier to come calling as they hit the top of the lane. #3 Victim of Love is a stalker who should be mid flight in the hands of Joel Rosario. She’s an honest runner and should be a major player as they square off down the lane.

Race# 9 – The G-3 Peter Pan – 1 1/8 miles dirt – 5:12 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #6 – Risk Taking / #2 – Nova Rags / #3 – Promise Keeper

#6 Risk Taking is a closer coming off a dismal effort as the beaten chalk in the G2 Wood. Irad Ortiz has the call for Chad Brown and they are winning 33% as a team. He sports a sharp work and looks to erase that last race and come running late in this compact field. Irad wins 27% with late runners and Chad Brown wins 28% coming off a beaten chalk effort. #2 Nova Rags hails from the Bill Mott barn and has Junior Alvarado in the saddle. He is one for one at BEL and should improve dropping down a class level from the G1 Fla Derby. Alvarado was aboard twice and broke his maiden at Belmont. Look for an up close trip right off the pace. #3 Promise Keeper is a stalker for Todd Pletcher with Luis Saez in the driver’s seat. This son of Constitution had an excellent win at KEE and looks to use this as a springboard to bigger and better things. I see Saez having a garden trip along the rail keeping an eye on the leader.

Race#10 – The G-1 Man o’ War – 1 1/8 on the turf – 5:44 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #8 – Gufo / #7 – Field Pass / #3 – Ziyad

#8 Gufo is a strong closer for Christophe Clement with Joel Rosario aboard. He is 1 for 1 at BEL and was flying late in the G1 Hollywood Derby. I’m looking for a strong effort under Rosario who wins 21% on the turf and owns a couple razor sharp bullet works. He is 8 for 8 ITM on the weeds and should improve off his last effort. #7 Field Pass exits the G1 Makers Mile at KEE for Mike Maker and has a mid flight closing style. Luis Saez in the irons and should be a little closer with added distance. He should improve for his 2nd effort off his layoff and Saez wins 18% with late runners on the turf. #3 Ziyad shipped over from France three back for Graham Motion with Manny Franco in the saddle. He looks to layoff off the pace and pounce when asked. he faced Gr 1 company in France and should fit in the picture. Franco has ridden the last two efforts and kick in before they turn for home. The barn wins 18% with a 90 day or better layoff and fresh legs may be a factor in taking a step up the class ladder.

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – KY Derby Day

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 5/1/2021 – Kentucky Derby Day

by: Ed Meyer

Kentucky Derby 147

Churchill Downs

Race #9 – The G2 American Turf – 1 1/16 on the turf – 3:40 pm ET

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 – Annex / #12 – Lucky Law / #13 – Scarlett Sky

#4 Annex is a son of Constitution for Bill Mott and Irad Ortiz. A fast closing colt who is a perfect 3 for 3 on the green. He moves up in class and after watching his last effort looks like he can be a major player. Look for a move around the far turn for Ortiz who wins 25% with his late running turf horses. #12 Lucky Law hails from the Patrick Biancone barn as the value play in this stakes. His style is to come running late, but if you saw his last race he hit the gate and ran into some traffic down the lane. A clean trip puts him right there under Florent Geroux with a sharp work coming into the race. #13 Scarlett Sky is a son of Sky Mesa for Shug McGaughey and Joel Rosario in the saddle. He is 6 for 7 ITM on the turf and exits a fast closing win in the G3 Transylvania. He’ll launch a late run, but will have to overcome the outside post. Dangerous player.

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Race  #10 – The G1 CD Stakes – 7f dirt – 4:31 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Mind Control /#9 – Whitmore/ #4 – Flagstaff

#2 Mind Control hails from the Gregory Sacco barn with Irad Ortiz in the saddle. He is 2nd off a layoff where the barn wins 21% and sports a bullet work coming into the race.  He is 7 for 11 ITM going 7f and Ortiz will have him high gear at the top of the lane after stalking the pace.  Breeders’ Cup champ #9 Whitmore goes to post for Ron Moquette and Ricardo Santana in the irons. This is his 3rd start off a layoff and was a beaten favorite at OP against a tough field. Moquette comes back to score at a 25% win clip on this move and owns a bullet work to prepare. Look for a patient stalking trip from Santana when the gates open. #4 Flagstaff ships in from KEE off an impressive win for the John Sadler barn with Luis Saez as the reinsman. A solid stalking sort who is 4 for 5 ITM going this distance.

 

Race#11 – The G1 Turf Classic – 1 1/8 on the turf – 5:27 pm

BetPTC.com Selections /#3 – Colonel Liam / #5 – Domestic Spending / #6 – Digital Age

#3 Colonel Liam hails from the barn of Todd Pletcher with Irad Ortiz in the driver’s seat. He is seeking his 4th straight win and makes his 2nd start off a layoff coming in from FG. Distance should be no problem as he has a win going 9f and has run longer. [Note: In stakes, runners are not competing on Lasix].  He has an impressive win in the G1 Pegasus World Cup Turf kicking out and closing strong for the win. Ortiz is a master with late runners winning 26%. #5 Domestic Spending comes off a five month layoff for Chad Brown and Flavien Prat gets the nod. He is seeking his 3rd straight win shipping back from the G1 Hollywood Derby. He is a son of Kingman (GB) who wins 21% with first time turfers. Prat is incredible on the greensward winning 28% and 66% ITM. Look for him to come calling at the top of the stretch. #6 Digital Age is a late running son of Invincible Spirit (IRE) for the Chad Brown barn. Javier Castellano stays aboard and is 2 for 2 with wins at CD. He has a solid late kick but is going to have to shake off that lackluster effort in the BC Mile last out lunging at the start. He may give you that square price at the windows to complete your exotics.

 

Race#12 – The G1 Kentucky Derby – 1 1/4 miles dirt – 6:57 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #15 – Rock Your World / #14 – Essential Quality / #17 – Highly Motivated

#15 Rock Your World is a son of Candy Ride for John Sadler with Joel Rosario in the irons. He is lightly raced and took a little different path to get here. He was 2 for 2 with wins on the turf when Sadler entered him in the G1 Santa Anita Derby. He romped home with ease and looked good doing it. This stamped him as one to take seriously. Breaking from the outside will allow him to drop over if he wants the lead or stalk just off the flank of a rabbit. I see this colt having versatility looking to hitting his best stride. They switched to Rosario and he is winning 33% with Sadler. Add in a sharp work and he is taking well to the Louisville surroundings; we have a top shelf player ready to run. #14 Essential Quality is an undefeated son of Tapit for Brad Cox and Luis Saez in the saddle. He is a perfect 5 for 5 and has done nothing wrong. He’s the kinda horse you wish for, and that is the plan for his owner Godolphin. They are 0 for 11 trying to take down the Derby, and it is only a matter of time when it happens. This talented colt can stalk from mid flight and give them all they want down the lane. This has the feel of a heavyweight battle, and he is the favorite to win the crown. I like everything about this colt except the heavy pounding he is going to take at the windows. A must use in exotics. #17 Highly Motivated hails from the Chad Brown barn with Javier Castellano in the driver’s seat.  The colt grabbed the lead and dueled Essential Quality to the wire in the G2 Bluegrass, losing by a head. He is game and I’m looking for a front end attempt to wire the field. This will either be lights out or allow Rock Your World to draft behind him. Look for him as the gate breaks as he’ll be looking to the front. My only questions are; did the Bluegrass take too much out of him, and is he distance limited? We’ll know about two minutes and change after they leave the starting gate.

 

Horse Racing Stakes Analysis – April 24th

Horse Racing Stakes Analysis – 4/24/2021

by: Ed Meyer

Golden Gate Fields Race #8 – The California Derby – 1 1/16 miles AW – 7:30 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #3 – Parnelli / #1 – Lost in Space / #4 -Twilight Rider

#3 Parnelli is a speedy colt by Quality Road for John Sherriffs and Edwin Maldonado. The colt is dropping from the G1 SA Derby trying to play catch up with Rock Your World.  This is a huge plunge down the class ladder and Maldonado is an excellent pace rider. The drop in class and cut back in distance make him the one to beat. #1 Lost in Space is a deep closer for trainer Simon Callaghan and Tyler Baze in the irons. The rail is winning at a 23% clip and this is his 2nd start in the states. His dam Alexandra Queen (IRE) has 7 starters and 7 winners to her credit. #4 Twilight Rider is a late runner who is a horse for the course winning two straight. I like the way he has been coming around as he gets the acid test today. Rider Irving Orozco is winning at 18% for the meet and the trainer  Blaine Wright is winning the same. Longshot to complete your exotics.

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Race#9 – The G-3 San Francisco Mile – 1 mile on the turf – 8:05pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #3 –  Whisper Not / #7 – Border Town / #7 – Brown Storm

#3 Whisper Not sports good speed from the gate for trainer Richard Baltas and Geovanni Franco. He’s been off for 49 days and owns a 5 for 7 ITM record on the turf. Ships in from Santa Anita and will come out swinging. If gets loose with normal fractions it could be lights out. #7 Border Town is a late running son of War Front for Dick Mandella and Evin Roman who is winning 32% on the turf. There should be plenty of pace as Mandella looks to be picking up the pieces late in the lane. #7 Brown Storm is a speedy son of Scat Daddy for Mike McCarthy with Kyle Frye in the saddle. This is his 2nd start of the year and should show better with a rider who wins 37% on the greensward.

 

Race#10 – The California Oaks – 1 1/16 miles AW – 8:37 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Risen Lady /#7 – Pizzazz / #3 – A Real Hero

#1 Risen Lady draws the rail which is winning at a 23% clip. Mike McCarthy is the conditioner and she is looking for her third straight win and goes from the turf to synthetic where the barn scores 31%. The added distance from her last win should have her right on the lead. She is 2 for 2 ITM at GG. #7 Pizzazz has been knocking heads with graded company on the turf. Dick Mandella is the trainer and he wins a staggering 60% going from the weeds to the synthetic. Very dangerous as a mid flight stalker. #3 A Real Hero hails from the Mike McCarthy barn with Tyler Baze in the irons. The trainer is winning 43% at the meet and she broke her maiden over the course against the boys. Look for a closing run under Baze as they ship in from TUP going from the dirt to all weather surfaces. The trainer scores 44% on this move.

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – April 17th

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 4/17/2021

by: Ed Meyer

Keeneland

Race #9 – The G-2 Elkhorn – 1 1/2 on the turf – 5:30 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #10 – Red Knight / #2 – Say the Word / #7 – North Dakota

#10 Red Knight hails from the Bill Mott barn with James Graham in the saddle. He’s been away from the races for 4 months and Mott scores 16% with layoff runners. He is 4 for 5 ITM going the distance and two for two ITM over the oval. With the early speed keeping the pace manageable, look for this son of PurePrize to get involved when the fan out turning for home. #2 Say the Word is a late runner for trainer Phil D’Amato and the red hot Luis Saez in the irons. 2nd time off the shelf with a bullet work shows good signs, and Saez wins 19% with late runners turning for home. #7 North Dakota is a late runner for Shug McGaughey and exits the G1 Pegasus Turf at GP. He picks up John Velasquez and could complete your exotics with a lane run in the lane to brighten up trifecta and superfecta tickets. He beat the top choice in here and should be considered a player.

Oaklawn Park

Race #9 – The G-2 Oaklawn Hcp- 1 1/8 – 5:49 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #6-Owendale / #2- Express Train / #1 – Silver Slate

#6 Owendale comes from the Brad Cox barn with Florent Geroux in the saddle.  3rd off the layoff yields a 28% win clip for the barn and is 5 for 6 ITM going the distance. He’ll come running late and Geroux wins 30% with the connections. He was a beaten favorite last out and sports a bullet work coming into the race. #2 Express Train is a stalker coming from the John Sheriffs’ barn. They cut back in distance and take a class drop going in the starting gate. Juan Hernandez makes the trip to Hot Springs and has finished 2 for 2 ITM aboard this son of Union Rags. #1 Silver Slate is a son of Hard Spun for Steve Asmussen and Ricardo Santana going for his 5th straight win moving up in class. Drawing the rail and 2 for 2 with wins at OP make him hard to overlook.

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Race #11 – The G-1Apple Blossom – 1 1/16 miles dirt – 7:09 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #6-Monmoy Girl / #2 – Swiss Skydiver / #3 -Letruska

#6 Monomoy Girl is making her second start of the year and looks to keep her winning record going for the Brad Cox barn. She is a versatile gal who can stalk or jump right to the front with a lack of pace. Florent Geroux fits her like a glove and will break close on the outside staying out of traffic. She should on the lead or just on the outside keeping the leader in sight. #2 Swiss Skydiver is a stalker as well and has faced Monomoy in the past. She gets a good post draw for Kenny McPeek and Robby Albarado. She is 1 for 1 at OP making her second start of the year.  #3 Letruska is a speedy daughter of Super Saver and should go right to the front to steal the race by slowing down the fractions under Irad Ortiz. She is game but will have her hands full trying to slow the pace down against the top two. Major player to complete exotics.

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Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – April 10th

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 4/10/2021

by: Ed Meyer

Keeneland Race #9 – The G-3 Lexington Stakes – 1 1/16 – 5:30 pm

BetPTC.com Selections – #2 – Swiftsure / #7 – Proxy / #5 – Unbridled Honor

#2 Swiftsure is a lightly raced son of Uncle Mo for Steve Asmussen with Irad Ortiz in the irons. He is 2 for 2 lifetime with one start in 2020 and 2021. He has a speedy style and with Ortiz in the saddle could very easily settle just off the speed. His dam Island Saint is stakes placed and has one starter with one winner to her credit. Ortiz wins 24% with early type runners and should be in the catbird seat turning for home in the short stretch. #7 Proxy is a speedy son of Pulpit for Mike Stidham and John Velasquez. He is 5 for 6 ITM and should flash good early foot. If you take a look at his PP’s you’ll see his best races were on Lasix. That is my only question keeping him out of the top spot; but with a bullet work, he’ll take plenty of action at the windows. Demand better than the morning line odds before making any decisions. #5 Unbridled Honor is a late runner for the Todd Pletcher barn with Julien Leparoux getting the nod. His last race in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby was better than it looked. He finished up strong and ships in from TBD where the Pletcher barn wins 24% with new surroundings. He may be blooming at the right time and the bullet work catches my attention over the deep Palm Beach course.

Race#10 – The G-1 Jenny Wiley – 1 1/16 on the turf – 6:03 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Micheline / #4 – Etoile / #2 – Tamahere

#1 Micheline hails from the Mike Stidham barn with red hot rider Luis Saez in the irons. She cuts back in distance and will be rolling late in the lane. Her victory in the G2 Hillsborough at TBD was strong last out and she is making her second start of the year with a bullet work to prepare. #4 Etoile is coming off a five month layoff for Chad Brown and Javier Castellano in the irons. Her first start of the year and should be closing late as she shortens in distance. Castellano wins 29% with Brown and shipping in off a long layoff fits Chad Brown well as he wins 30% with freshened runners. #2 Tamahere makes her first start of the year for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz. A late runner who has done well with shipping to the states. Ortiz is a very strong closing runner and wins 28% with his turf runners.

Oaklawn Park

Race #12 – The G-1 Arkansas Derby – 1 1/8 – 7:41 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Concert Tour / #3 – Hozier / #1  Super Stock

#5 Concert Tour hails from the Baffert barn with Joel Rosario in the irons. He is a perfect 3 for 3 and should be a major pace player. He won his only start at OP and has a bullet work to tighten the screws moving forward. Rosario has been riding very well wherever he hangs his tack and has a 57% win clip teaming up with Bob Baffert. #3 Hozier is a son of Pioneer of the Nile for Bob Baffert and Martin Garcia. He ran a game 2nd against the favorite in here and will be running late. The bullet work and added distance make him dangerous. #1 Super Stock is a mid pack stalker for Steve Asmussen. This is his 2nd start of the year and will be a factor in the exotics. They switch back to Ricardo Santana who is the Asmussen go to rider. The extra half furlong should help his causes drawing the rail and saving ground when the real running gets going.

Belterra Park at a Glimpse – 2021 Racing Season

Belterra Park in Ohio sits less than a 1/16th of a mile from the original site of historic River Downs. A dirt mile oval with a 6 1/2f chute and a 7/8th turf course showcases live racing excitement from April 29th – October 7th, 2021 with the first post of 12:35 pm. The backdrop of the Ohio River and rolling hills of Kentucky make this oval a picturesque gem of Thoroughbred racing.

Here’s are some helpful tools that will give you an idea of what to look for, and how to watch and wager on the Belterra Park races.

 

Dirt and Turf 

Belterra Park has a one mile oval that plays kind to early speed especially during the dog days of summer. If there has been any rain in the forecast the night before or during the day, the track plays kind to stalkers and closing types. You’ll want to pay attention to announcements and updates on track conditions.

The turf has some tight turns but offers plenty of excitement as they cut the corner and turn for home on the sod. The grass plays kind to closers overall. You’ll see runners make a move into the far turn and swing out for the drive to the wire.

 

Top Riders

John McKee is a talented rider who excels on speed and closers equally well. He was the leading rider in 2020 and won at a 24% win clip on the dirt and 13% on the greensward. He is 45% ITM with favorites at Belterra.

Perry Ouzts will turn 67 years young this year and is the 6th leading rider in history. A speed riding machine that always needs to be factored into your wagers. In 2020, he won 19% on the dirt and 21% on the grass. Overall, he is 29% ITM with an average win payoff of $8.50.

Joe Ramos is a versatile young rider who shipped over from Kentucky last year and scored 21% on the dirt and 13% on the grass. His average win payoff was $9.50.

 

Riders to Watch This Meet

Gerardo Corrales is a talented young rider who is next up on the radar for jockeys taking their game to the next level. He has been riding at Turfway Park and owns a 23% win clip and 46% ITM overall.

Sonny Leon has been doing extremely well wherever he hangs his tack. I see him making an immediate impact on the rider standings from his first mount. He is winning at a 20% clip this year and 55% ITM.

David Cabrera ships in for agent Jose Santos and scores a 13% win clip and 41% ITM. It may take a little time to gain traction to build business, but he should be fine by the first month into the meet.

 

Trainers

Larry Smith was the leading trainer of 2020 and was winning at a 17% win clip on the dirt. When he teams up with his go to rider Perry Ouzts, good things are bound to happen.

Tim Hamm is making his presence felt everywhere he saddles a horse.  He could be at Belterra today and Saratoga the next day. Anytime you see a Hamm horse coming to the paddock it deserves a good hard look before wagering. Last year he won 18% on the dirt and 31% on the greensward.

Susan Anderson is currently racing in Kentucky and must be respected when bringing a horse to the paddock. Last year she won 25% on the dirt and 8% on the turf. You’ll get good value as her average win payoff was $9.60.

 

Trainers to Watch

Wesley Ward when he ships over to Belterra Park. Thom Drury is always dangerous and deserves extra consideration when riding John McKee. Eric Reed won 14% on the dirt and 20% on the turf last year from a small sampling. Keep your eyes peeled for Ron Kahles who won 23% from 40 starts last year with an average win payoff of $10.00. Michael Evans II started heating up in 2020. James Chapman is starting to rebuild his stock ready to score in Ohio.

 

Stakes Races / Daily Racing

For the 2021 season, there are 15 stakes featuring the Best of Ohio series on May 28th, featuring five $100,000 stakes races going to post. 

Daily racing takes place Tuesday – Friday with the first post of 12:35pm and eight live races. The only exception is during the Triple Crown where racing will be conducted Wednesday – Saturday.

Racing in the Cincinnati area has a rich history. From Coney Island race track in the 1920s to historic River Downs. Belterra Park is proud to continue the long standing history of Thoroughbred racing in the Cincinnati area.

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – April 3rd

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 4/3/2021

by: Ed Meyer

Aqueduct

Race #10 – The G-2 Wood Memorial – 1 1/8 miles dirt – 5:58pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Crowded Trade / #4 – Risk Taking / #6 – Prevalence

#2 Crowded Trade hails from the Chad Brown with Eric Cancel in the irons. He’s a late runner and just missed in the G3 Gotham after bobbling at the start. Brown wins 48% 2nd time going a route and a few solid works leading up to the race. Look for a late run as they near the quarter pole. #4 Risk Taking goes to post for Chad Brown with a perfect 2 for 2 over the track with wins. I liked his effort winning the G3 Withers going 9f and with Irad Ortiz in the saddle look for a strong late kick as he has won twice going the distance. Ortiz wins 31% with his route runners. #6 Prevalence has good speed from the Brendan Walsh barn shipping up from GP. Tyler Gaffalione has the call and I’m looking for a quick break to be near the front of the pack. He is a perfect two for two and looks to keep his record intact moving up the class ladder off a bullet work.

Keeneland

Race #9 – The G-1 Ashland – 1 1/16 miles dirt – 5:30 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Malathaat / #3 – Simply Ravishing / #2 – Pass the Champagne

#5 Malathaat goes to post for Todd Pletcher and Joel Rosario. She is the daughter of Curlin who is a perfect 3 for 3 lifetime. She is cutting back from 9f and should relish a perfect stalking trip. She has been away for 90 days and Pletcher wins 28% with layoff runners. #3 Simply Ravishing is a stalking type runner and gets Luis Saez back in the saddle for Kenny McPeek. This is her 1st start of 2021 and was the winner of the G1 Alcibiades last year at KEE. Look for a closeup trip in the hands of Saez. #2 Pass the Champagne is a deep closer for George Weaver and Javier Castellano. This is a big jump in class and was impressive in victory last out. Her dam Champagne Taste has 7 starters with 7 winners to her credit.

Race #11 – The G-2 Bluegrass Stakes – 1 1/8 miles dirt – 6:35 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 – Essential Quality / #5 – Rombauer / #3 – Highly Motivated

#4 Essential Quality is a son of Tapit from the Brad Cox barn. He is a perfect 4 for 4 lifetime and makes his 2nd start of the 2021 racing season. Luis Saez is the pilot and has been aboard for three of his four lifetime wins. 2nd time off a layoff yields the Cox barn a 28% win clip. Look for a close stalking trip keeping an eye on the pace. #5 Rombauer was nominated to the Jeff Ruby but opted for a trip over the KEE dirt. He is a deep closer and is maturing with every start. His closing win in the El Camino Real was impressive for trainer Mike McCarthy and they switch to high percentage money rider Florent Geroux. The Ruby was a 100 point Derby race but they opted to get back to the dirt. He ran a decent effort in the BC Juvenile. He’s been off for 49 days, but the barn scores 19% with layoff runners. #3 Highly Motivated hails from the Chad Brown barn with Javier Castellano. The G3 Gotham was a very good prep for good things ahead and Castellano has been aboard this closer every time. The added distance should fit his needs well.

Santa Anita

Race#6 – The G-2 Santa Anita Oaks – 1 1/16 miles dirt – 5:30 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Beautiful Gift / #3 – Soothsay / #1 – Moraz

#5 Beautiful Gift hails from the Bob Baffert barn with John Velasquez in the saddle. Her victory in the G3 Santa Ysabell was a top display of a stalker with patience. She is 2 for 2 ITM at SA and Johnny V looks for his 2nd straight win. #3 Soothsay just broke her maiden for Richard Mandella and Flavien Prat. She stretches out to a distance for the first time, and her morning works signal good things moving forward. #1 Moraz draws the golden rail under Umberto Rispoli for Mike McCarthy. The rail is winning at 24%, and she is 3 for 3 ITM over the course. Rispoli is a hot rider who is 11 for 15 ITM the past seven days. Look for a stalking trip saving ground along the rail.

Race #8 – The G-1 Santa Anita Derby – 1 1/8 miles dirt – 6:30 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / # 2 – Dream Shake / #7 – Medina Spirit / #3 – Rock Your World

#2 Dream Shake hails from the Peter Eurton barn with Flavien Prat in the irons. he had an impressive maiden win sprinting, but the extra distance may have caught him a little flat footed. He sports some sparkling works and this lightly raced colt may be ready to move forward. Prat wins 38% with Eurton and 23% with closers. #7 Medina Spirit is a speedster from the Bob Baffert barn. John Velasquez in the saddle and they bring a tough game every time they hit the track. Baffert is winning 30% at the meet and could be dangerous with added distance if left alone on the lead. #3 Rock Your World is a stalker from the John Sadler barn. They are a perfect 2 for 2, but both wins were on the grass. Making the turf to dirt change yields Sadler a 22% win clip. This son of Candy Ride should be right off the speed and looks to up his game against this level of competition. Sadler making the move from turf to dirt in G1 competition leaves me feeling he likes what he sees in his runner.

 

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – March 27

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 3/27/2021

by: Ed Meyer

Gulfstream Park

Race #10 – The G-2 Pan American – 1 1/2 on the turf – 4:09 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #3 – Sadler’s Joy / #2 – Temple  / #7 – Moon Over Miami

#3 Sadler’s Joy is a son of Kitten’s Joy for Thom Albertrani and Jose Ortiz in the saddle. He’s been off for two months and the barn scores at a 12% win clip with fresh legs. He is 4 for 7 ITM at GP and closed well last out coming up a bit short down the lane. Ortiz wins 23% with his turf closers. #2 Temple makes his 3rd off the layoff move for Mike Maker with Irad Ortiz in the irons. This son of Temple City should be mid pack and Irad wins 26% with stalking type closers. He loves GP going 10 for 11 ITM over the course. #7 Moon Over Miami hails from the Bill Mott barn with Junior Alvarado in the saddle.  2nd time off the layoff, and Mott wins 17% on this move. The rider is 19 for 34 ITM the past week.

Race #12 – The G-2 Gulfstream Oaks – 1 1/16 – 5:17 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #3 – Crazy Beautiful / #6 – Millefeuille / #1 – Con Lima

#3 Crazy Beautiful is a daughter of Liam’s Map for Ken McPeek and Jose Ortiz. This is her 2nd off the layoff and eligible to improve after being reluctant to load last out. She was 4 wide moving late last out and should be mid pack in high gear turning for home. #6 Millefeuille is a daughter of Curlin making her 2nd start of the year. Add in her bullet work at Payson and trainer Bill Mott looks to keep her moving forward in 2021. She was shuffled back at the start last out and looks prime to get back on track.  #1 Con Lima is a speedy filly for Todd Pletcher who is 3 for 3 ITM over the course. She makes the turf to dirt switch and wins 25% on the surface move. Irad Ortiz in the driver’s seat and should break quickly.

Race #14 – The G-1 Florida Derby – 1 1/8 – 6:40 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Known Agenda / #7 – Greatest Honor / #10 – Spielberg

#5 Known Agenda is a son of Curlin for Todd Pletcher with Irad Ortiz in the irons. He won impressively by 11 lengths last out as prep and looks to make his 3rd off the layoff move where the barn wins 23%. The distance should fit his style and look for a solid late run. #7 Greatest Honor is a son of Tapit 6 for 6 ITM who is a perfect 3 for 3 at GP. Known Agenda beat him going 9f, and should make a sharp move on the far turn for Shug McCaughey and Jose Ortiz. He is 6 for 6 ITM at the track seeking his 4th straight win. #10 Spielberg is a late runner for Bob Baffert with Javier Castellano in the saddle. He ships in from OP and Baffert wins 30% with his shippers. He has sharp works and switches riders to Castellano.

 

Turfway Park

Race #11 – The G-3 Jeff Ruby Steaks – 1 1/8 – 6:25 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Hush of a Storm / #7 – Tarantino / #10 – Gretzky the Great

#2 Hush of a Storm hails from the William Morey barn with Santiago Gonzalez in the irons. 2nd off a layoff for this late runner and a perfect 3 for 3 at TP. The winner of the John Battaglia has won twice without Lasix and his dam Hush Now has 1 starter and 1 winner to her credit. #7 Tarantino is a stalker from the Rudy Brisset barn with Florent Geroux in the saddle. 3rd off the layoff and should show good early foot from the break. He ships in from GP from the G2 Fountain of Youth and should be forwardly placed when they spring the latch. #10 Gretzky the Great makes his 2nd off the layoff as the beaten chalk in the Battaglia. Mark Casse runners win 24% making the comeback off the beaten chalk angle. Look for speed from the Casse runner with Chris Landeros in the saddle.

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – March 20

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 3/20/2021

by: Ed Meyer

Fair Grounds

Race #11 – The New Orleans Classic – 1 1/8 – 5:12 pm

**** Kicks off the $750,000 Pick-Four ****

BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Owendale / #1 – Roadster / #3 – Olliemyboy

#2  Owendale makes his 2nd start off the layoff for Brad Cox who scores at a 27% win clip on this move. He is 2 for 3 ITM at FG and gets added distance where he is 4 for 5 ITM. A strong closer in the hands of Florent Geroux should be effective in a slow pace projected race where he’ll come calling at the top of the lane. #1 Roadster comes off a one year layoff for Mike Stidham and John Velasquez. He does well coming in fresh and gets the acid test today. He should be placed mid pack and looks to kick off the year with a solid stalking trip. #3 Olliemyboy makes his 3rd start off the layoff for Norm Casse and Irad Ortiz. This is a big jump in class and owns a perfect 2 for 2 at FG. Ortiz is a great finishing rider and he’ll be looking to come flying late in the lane.

Race #12 – The G-2 Muniz Memorial – 1 1/8 on the turf – 5:43 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Colonel Liam / #8 -Spooky Channel / #1 – Factor This

#5 Colonel Liam hails from the Pletcher barn with Irad Ortiz in the irons. They win 31% as a team and this late runner comes off a win in the Pegasus Cup Turf at GP. He gets Lasix added and turns back in distance. Look for a strong late punch under Ortiz who wins 26% with late running turf horses. #8 Spooky Channel is a late runner taking a hike up the class ladder after scoring in the G3 Connelly at Sam Houston. Florent Geroux in the saddle and his patient style is a plus off a 48 day layoff. #1 Factor This is a speedy runner from the Brad Cox barn drawing the rail under Shaun Bridgmohan who wins 20% with early style runners. 2nd start off the shelf and was beaten chalk last out. He is 3 for 4 ITM at FG and will jump quickly at the break.

Race  #13 – The G-2 FG Oaks – 1 1/16 – 6:14 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #6 – Clairiere / #8 – Travel Column / #4 – Li’l Tootsie

#6 Clairiere is a late running daughter of Curlin for Steve Asmussen with Joe Talamo aboard. She turned back Travel Column last out in a very impressive performance with a flawless ride. She is 3 for 3 going this distance and owns some solid morning works moving forward. Joe Talamo stays aboard and should give another good account of this filly. #8 Travel Column is a late runner for the Brad Cox barn with Florent Geroux in the driver’s seat. This is her second start of the year and should improve to make the battle go to round number two for the morning line favorites. Geroux fits like a glove and sports some good morning works. #4 Li’l Tootsie is a lightly raced closer for the Thom Amoss barn with Luis Saez in the irons. She had an impressive maiden win, and her last effort showed she may be special moving forward.

Race #14 – The G-2 – Louisiana Derby – 1 3/16 – 6:44 pm

BetPTC.com Selections / #6 – Mandaloun / #4 – Proxy / #3 – Run Classic

#6 Mandaloun is a mid pack stalker who can patiently wait and pounce for the Brad Cox barn with Florent Geroux in the saddle. He is 2 for 2 ITM at FG and was impressive winning the G2 Risen Star. Geroux wins 26% with Cox and should be just off the leaders. The works are sharp and he should be a big part of the Derby trail with a top effort. #4 Proxy should be a major pace player for Mike Stidham and Johnny Velasquez. This son of Tapit is maturing and looks to stamp his ticket to Louisville. #3 Run Classic is a lightly raced son of Runhappy and makes the big jump up the class ladder. She hails from the Bret Calhoun barn with B.J. Hernandez in the saddle. That was an impressive maiden win, but he’ll need to kick his game into high gear today. Use in your exotics at a solid price.