by Tony Kelzenberg for BetPTC.com
September 25th, 2015
I didn’t see any great value in the stakes action at Belmont, but I love this pick 3!!
Suggested Bel $1-base Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4): 3,4,6,7 with 2,4,5,6 with 3,4
1:26 EDT Race 2 – Maiden 2yo 6f (Widener Turf):
#4 Oscar Mike (5/1 ML) tracked 44 second and change splits while 3 wide in his Saratoga debut. He did not change his leads in the stretch in his debut, but if he can do that in this race he’ll win.
#7 Barahona (6/1 ML) is the best bred horse in the race for turf sprinting, being by top grass sprint sire More than Ready out of a mare that has already produced 2 turf winners from 3 starters (the dams of the rest of the FIELD have combined to only produce 1 previous grass winner). Unfortunately, Leah Gyarmati, the trainer of #7, is only 4% (5 for 122) with her turf starters. Mixed messages.
#3 Rappel (4/1 ML) keeps improving and can run the typical speed figure to win this race. Gets another 110 yards today to try to run down the speed.
#6 Uncork the York (3/1 ML) has obscure Euro bloodlines but gets the steady team of Graham Motion and John Velazquez, along with some bullet works at Fair Hill, a training facility in Maryland. Graham historically wins with roughly 20% of his better first-time starters.
1:58 EDT Race 3 NYB Maiden 2yo 6f (main):
#5 Mountain Music Man (2/1 ML) has sharp 4 furlong works for Todd Pletcher, and a nice, solid gate work on 21 September. This is a dangerous Pletcher two-year old.
#4 Luckybuck Syndrome (12/1 ML) is well-bred and has several flashy 4 furlong works for the Jeremiah Englehart, who has excellent results with jockey Luis Saez (4 for 14, positive 92% ROI).
#6 Mr Curiosity (8/1 ML) is sired by hot NY-based sire Girolamo (24% winners from first time starters). His trainer has been successful on very limited starters.
#2 Governor Malibu (3/1 ML) only needs to improve slightly. He got a 4-wide trip last time, should improve.
2:32 EDT Race 4 NYB N1x 8.5f (inner turf):
#4 Black Tide (3/1 ML) and #3 Jax Heritage (5/1 ML) are both race fit and typically run the par speed figure needed to win this race.