Saturday April 27, 2013

Please double check all program numbers prior to wagering 


Churchill     Race 4  (7:26 ET)  6 Furlongs

Claiming $30,000 2L  


Best Value Play: #6 Venus De Milo (4/1)

Most Likely Winner: #4 On the Same Page (5/2)

Other Contenders: #2 Mary Magdalene (7/2), #3 Delightful Magic (3/1), #5 Emmy Rules (4/1)

Analysis: In some ways this race appears to be a continuance of the Keeneland meeting with trainers Wesley Ward and Michael Maker squaring off. It seems like Ward has the horse to beat with On the Same Page and oddly enough it’s the Ramseys that own this charge, a mutual client of both Ward and Maker. On the Same Page has run a good one at Churchill in the past and she fired a bullet for Ward at Keeneland the other day. She looks to be ready. Mary Magadalene is Maker’s filly and she returns after a maiden score at Keeneland and appears fit for the task. Delightful Music is trained by the King of Canada, Mark Casse. The regally bred lady drops in class and broke her maiden in Louisville as a baby in 2011. Emmy Rules broke her maiden at Churchill last year and runs for one of the most underrated trainers in the game. Also, Gary Stevens takes the ride. It may not look like Venus De Milo will be a longshot with a morning line of 4/1. But some big names are in this race and her trainer is not as well known, although very competent. Look for those connected to big names to take money at the windows. Also, she ran neck and neck with On the Same Page at Churchill last year and was well bet.


 Churchill     Race 6  (8:30 ET)   6 Furlongs

Claiming $5,000  


Best Value Play:  #7 Follow the Lady (10/1)

Most Likely Winner: #5 Pajama Bottom (7/2)

Other Contenders: #2 Flashy Rae (3/1), #3 Buffalo River Gal (7/2), #4 Congareesbuttercup (12/1)

Analysis: Pajama Bottom gets the “Red Hot Rosie” Napravnik in the saddle and Tom Amoss looks to have her ready after a freshening to go along with a subtle class drop. Rosie and Tom have a blazing 39% win rate together over the last couple of months. Flashy Rae takes a drop and looks solid at this level. Buffalo River Gal has scored twice in Louisville in the past and has never been bet into double digits. Congareesbuttercup is hard to predict but if she brings her “A” game she can upset this bunch. Follow the Lady has probably been placed to ambitiously in most of her races and may prove to be a good fit here. She has won at Churchill and gets a rider that performs well under the Spires.

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