Sunday April 28, 2013

Please double check all program numbers prior to wagering 

 Lone Star     Race 2  (3:03 ET)  5 1/2 Furlongs

Claiming $7,500 3L  

Best Value Play: #4 Mount Istan (10/1)

Most Likely Winner: #6 Strategic Player (5/2)

Other Contenders: #2 Nobizlikehorsebiz (7/2), #5 Dr. Nip (2/1)

Analysis: Strategic Player continued to drop until he scored and drops in price again today. It’s usually a bad thing to second guess trainer Allen Milligan so do not be surprised if Strategic Player visits the Winner’s Circle. Nobizlikehorsebiz ia hard to figure and not because his name is so long. Lack of works causes concern, but if he is ready he can play at this level. Dr. Nip invades from New Mexico and turns back in distance, and that could be a plus for this game competitor in this field. Mount Istan gets high percentage rider Chapa and exits a fairly hot race for this level. All of his bad races came when he was placed over his head. Must consider.

Lone Star     Race 7  (5:23 ET)  7 Furlongs

Optional Claiming $18,000 1X  

Best Value Play:  #5 Normandy Shore (15/1)

Most Likely Winner: #6 Wagson (8/5)

Other Contenders: #2 Big Tall Paul (5/2), #7 Lucky A.C. (5/1)

Analysis: No doubt Wagson is a legitimate favorite due to a successful history and current form. Plus he has trainer Allen Milligan and red hot rider Cliff Berry. Big Tall Paul is a consistent performer in top form, has 8 career wins and fits well at this level. Lucky A.C. has raced at a wide variety of levels, and if ready to go he figures to be a threat. Normandy Shore lost the jock in his last, which will help escalate his price. This old pro runs his best with Murphy aboard and he cracked the stop watches about a week ago in a workout. If he gets a soft lead he may steal it.