Friday May 10, 2013

Please double check all program numbers prior to wagering 

Churchill     Race 2   (3:16 ET)  6 Furlongs    Claiming $7,500 

Best Value Play: # 1 Surf Cast (8/1)

Most Likely Winner: # 6 Chelsea Brook (2/1)

Other Contenders: # 3 Kitty’s Turn (5/2), # 4 Gambling Don (4/1)

Analysis: Chelsea Brook comes in from Tampa dropping back to a level where he was claimed in January by the highly efficient Wesley Ward. The owner connection of Ken and Sarah Ramsey adds to the probability of a win. Kitty’s Turn invades from New Orleans and has faced tougher company for a long time. Gambling Don is a confirmed route runner that cuts back and takes a drop. Can probably be close enough early to have a late running shot. Surf Cast has bounced around in various classes and occasionally posts a big speed figure. Blinkers helped his early speed last time and could help again.   

Churchill     Race 5  (4:50 ET)  6 Furlongs    Claiming $15,000 – 3L

Best Value Play: # 2 Ouiser (6/1)

Most Likely Winner: # 3 Take Interest (9/5)

Other Contenders: # 5 Brooks Beach (3/1), # 1 Sunrise Ridge (7/2)

Analysis: Take Interest will probably be a very short price since she looks so superior to the balance of the field, plus she gets the red hot Bridgmohan in the irons. Brooks Beach ships in from Oaklawn, takes the blinkers off, looks ready to roll after a break and drops in class. Often, all of that spells trouble. Sunrise Ridge has the big advantage with her early speed. They will have to catch her. Ouiser is definitely an outsider, but if the rest of them chase Sunrise Ridge then Lebron may can just wait for everything to collapse and guide Ouiser past them all.