Saturday April 6, 2013

Please double check all program numbers prior to wagering 

Keeneland     Race 1    7 Furlongs    Claiming $16,000  (1:05 ET)

Best Value Play: #8 Notoriety (5/1)

Most Likely Winner: #7 Kingsford Drive (5/2)

Other Contenders: #9 Goodtimehadbyall (5/1), #6 Faisal Prince (9/2), Longhunter (3/1)

Analysis: Kingsford Drive makes his first start for trainer Mike Maker after being claimed in New Orleans. The well traveled and well bred runner has useful works for his Keeneland debut. Goodtimehadbyall looks to be the class of the field and can handle these with a little pace up front. Faisal Prince should stay close early and will be tough if he runs like he did at Turfway Park. Longhunter is something of a mystery and seeks class relief to help with his woes. Most of trainer Darrin Miller’s wins at Keeneland have come for the owner. Notoriety is questionable but has run well in Lexington before. He could be running past them in the lane if ready.  

Keeneland     Race 10    6 ½ Furlongs    Claiming $30,000 – 2L (5:56 ET)

Best Value Play: #9 Praetorian Prefect (8/1)

Most Likely Winner: #4 Grey Oak (4/1)

Other Contenders: #6 Apollo Sky (6/1), #8 Gold Megillah (2/1), #3 Lollipop (4/1)

Analysis: Grey Oak goes for Dale Romans and takes a significant drop shipping in from Gulfstream Park. Last race was a disaster but his placing was ambitious. Apollo Sky doesn’t sport big numbers but this will be his first race in restricted conditions since breaking his maiden, not to mention trainer Wesley Ward is on his side. Gold Megillah is hard to figure and could be the chalk. Can’t ignore back class but unfamiliar distance and poor 2012 record cause concern. Lollipop is another runner tough to figure and makes second American start. About a third of the wins for trainer McKeever at Keeneland ship in from New Orleans like this one. Praetorian Prefect may take less money than morning line suggests. Drop and back class make him a threat.