Friday April 19, 2013
Please double check all program numbers prior to wagering
Keeneland (5:44 ET) Race 10 about 7 Furlongs
Maiden Claiming $50,000
Best Value Play: #2 Tiz Tebow Time (15/1)
Most Likely Winner: #6 Rapid Ranger (9/2)
Other Contenders: #3 Distortionist (7/2), #12 Tiu Rusty Rosie (8/1)
Analysis: If you review the book Keeneland Winning Trainer Patterns you will see why Mike Maker is so dangerous with horses such as Rapid Ranger. The most likely favorite is a shipper from Turfway, turns back in distance and drops in class. Rapid Ranger also gets blinkers. Not to mention that Joel Rosario gets on board, who has been Maker’s most successful accomplice in Lexington this spring. Distortionist runs for Canada’s stately Roger Attfield and Gary Stevens gets the mount. That means a Hall of Famer is riding for a Hall of Famer. Attfield brings him back in only 12 days and jumps the colt in class. With his home track of Woodbine opening Saturday one must wonder if Mr. Attfield knows he has a live runner. Don’t be surprised if it becomes the Rosie and Rusty party. Napravnik jumps on Tiu for one of America’s best and most underrated trainers, Rusty Arnold. First time Lasix, good speed figures with an outside for an off the pace horse all adds up for a winning effort. Tiz Tebow Time is one of those that has trainer Ken McPeek long shot written all over it. It is easy to see in Keeneland Winning Trainer Patterns that McPeek has been to the Winner’s Circle many times with horses either second race layoff or second time starter. He is doubly dangerous with shippers from Gulfstream. And, did you notice how McPeek packed 19 furlongs of work into this guy in less than a month, without a race?
Lone Star (9:27 ET) Race 5 5 ½ Furlongs
Claiming $15,000 – 3L
Best Value Play: #6 Cocked and Locked (10/1)
Most Likely Winner: #3 Unbridled Venture (2/1)
Other Contenders: #2 Sharp Albert (8/5), #7 Abendlied (4/1)
Analysis: Unbridled Venture looks much the best with class drop, superior speed figs and an excellent trainer in Allen Milligan. Sharp Albert is the obvious speed and trained by Milligan also…so watch out. Abendlied had a good race with blinkers added in last at this level and is very capable of taking the winner’s share of cash. Cocked and Locked may have seen his best day but he does have some early zip and a steady stream of works makes you look twice.