Friday October 4, 2013

Please double check all program numbers prior to wagering

Woodbine    Race 4   6 furlongs   $10,000 3L   (2:17 ET)

Best Value Play: #7 Call to Faith  (8/1)

Most Likely Winner: #3 Marchoso  (3/1)

Other Contenders: #1 Salvatore G (6/1), #5 Sir Lowry’s Pass (5/2)

Analysis: Marchoso could wire the field if Sir Lowry’s Pass opts to stalk. Marchoso is dropping in half and Garcia is an excellent gate rider. Salvatore G has tons of back class compared to these and showed much improvement when dropped to this level last out. Sir Lowry’s Pass is the mystery horse. He can fire out of the gate or stalk like he did in his last race. He was claimed at this level back in June and runs for a high percentage duo. Call to Faith has already returned his claiming price to his new owner after a win at a higher level. He now drops below that level and trainer Kevin Attard uses Campbell, a familiar face to the trainer the last few years. 

Keeneland    Race 4,   6 ½ furlongs    $20,000   (2:41 ET)

Best Value Play: #5 Case Cracker (15/1)

Most Likely Winner: #9 Top Tier Lass (3/1)

Other Contenders: #7 Three D (10/1) #12 Regal Melody (5/1)

Analysis: Top Tier Lass is a product of the Maker/Ramsey machine. Claimed at Saratoga for the same price and has the back class to suggest he is dangerous at this level. Three D drops to her lowest level ever and ran respectably in allowance company at the Mountain. Regal Melody has the back class, dropping to her lowest level ever and runs for a combo that has won more than their fair share over the years. Case Cracker runs for the dangerous Chicago of E.T. Baird and trainer Larry Rivelli, has run very well on artificial surfaces and may get the lead.