Sunday October 6, 2013

Please double check all program numbers prior to wagering

 Keeneland    Race 2,   1 1/8 miles  Claiming $10,000   (1:37 ET)

Best Value Play: #6 Religious Ed  (6/1)

Most Likely Winner: #2 Fizzano   (4/1)

Other Contenders: #1 New Believer (7/2), #5 Five Afleet (6/1)

Analysis: Fizzano is part of a story that cannot be ignored. A Maker trained horse for the Ramseys and claimed for twice the tag of this race at Saratoga.  New Believer faced some good ones at Indiana Downs and has won 8 times at Keeneland on the surface. Five Afleet does well on the surface and the distance should suit him fine. Religious Ed loves artificial surfaces, drops in class, and is perfect in his career at Keeneland. This little known trainer doesn’t run many at Keeneland but has enjoyed success there the last few years. 

 PARX    Race 5,   5 1/2  Starter $16,000  (2:13 ET)

 Best Value Play: #2 Tetherball (6/1)

 Most Likely Winner: #6 Don’tcallmeshirley (2/1)

 Other Contenders: #4 Queen Cleopatra  (8/1) #5 Vagabond Lass (5/1)

 Analysis: Don’tcallmeshirley may have a class question in this field but her last few races at Monmouth suggest she may be the one to beat. Cleopatra runs for trainer Scott Lake after a layoff and that is enough to throw her in the mix. Vagabond Lass makes second start after a freshener, runs for a high percentage barn and has a couple of races that really stand out on her resume. Tetherball drops back to the same starter level after going to stakes company, and although she hasn’t shown much in her last few starts it seems she has caught some tough horses and is capable of a big improvement.