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Keeneland,   Race 4,  1 1/16 miles   Cl $16,000 (2:38 ET)

Best Value Play: #6 Here’s Fat (10/1)

Most Likely Winner: #7 Contestant (2/1)

Other Contenders: #1 Little Ariel (7/2), #5 Hadarra (5/2)

 Analysis: Contestant goes for the hot combo of Maker-Ramsey, drops in class and won her last for fun. Little Ariel ships in from Tampa with a good resume and good form plus she has shown plenty of fight on both turf and dirt. Hadarra should be the controlling speed in the race, seems to fit class-wise and burned up the track with a recent work. Here’s Fat has experience at higher claiming levels and in allowance company. A hot workout in Florence the other day sends a good signal.

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 Keeneland,   Race 7,   6 F, Allowance $60,000 2L (4:11 ET)

Best Value Play: #2 Cloverdale Nine (10/1)

Most Likely Winner: #10 Harvey (3/1)

Other Contenders: #6 Data Driven (4/1) #11 Chief Istan (4/1)

 Analysis: Harvey gets the nod in a tough race with good young horses. He ran well in both of his races even though they were rough trips. Data Driven is trained by the very talented Chad Brown. This one ships in from Miami after winning his debut in a huge field. Chief Istan was probably ready to roll in New Orleans but his top-notch trainer held off until Keeneland and his works in Lexington suggest he likes the surface. Cloverdale Nine cannot be ignored because of trainer Wesley Ward, plus this guy broke his maiden at Gulfstream in an impressive way.