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Keeneland Race 4, 6 furlongs Claiming $7,500 (2:45 ET)
Best Value Play: #8 Shimmy Tinjo (8/1)
Most Likely Winner: #11 Ground Force (5/2)
Other Contenders: #2 Arborville (8/1), #3 Jersey Blue Giant (3/1)
Analysis: Ground Force has posted good numbers and knocked heads with higher priced men at Saratoga. The red hot Corey Lanerie gets in the saddle and he runs for a sharp young trainer, named Sharp. Arborville deserves another look so toss his last race at Churchill. This guy is always well bet, Borel stays in the saddle and his trainer knows a few things about winning races. Jersey Blue Giant could be the favorite and he will be tough. He has good tactical speed and has won for a much bigger price than the conditions call for. Shimmy Tinjo has a good resume and has a lot of experience; in the last year he has competed at seven tracks. Back off a freshener with good works sends a positive signal.
Keeneland Race 10, 6 furlongs Claiming $20,000 2L (6:03 ET)
Best Value Play: #10 Fifty Two (12/1)
Most Likely Winner: #4 Media Time (7/2)
Other Contenders: #5 Reeder (3/1) #11 L.A. Freeway (6/1)
Analysis: Media Time runs for good Chicago connections and drops to his first ever claimer. This scenario is one in which his trainer excels. Reeder is always well bet and rarely throws in a clunker, plus the jockey trainer combo is dangerous. L.A. Freeway has some speed and usually posts good numbers. No doubt this guy is well rested and his trainer must be respected. Fifty Two is a puzzle that may just be a shot to play. Little know connections are obvious but look at what they have done to prepare this guy. The well-bred bay was claimed in May and immediately given a vacation, then they decided to geld him and for this race the blinkers come off. He is no longer in “jail” so they sure don’t have to run him for a higher tag than his claiming price. A suspicious smell is in the air.