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Keeneland Race 1, 6 furlongs Claiming $10,000 (1:05 ET)
Best Value Play: #2 Cannon Luke (5/1)
Most Likely Winner: #1 Moonlit Meteor (7/2)
Other Contenders: #4 Proven Warrior (5/1), #7 Defer Heaven (5/2)
Analysis: Moonlit Meteor is an interesting horse who has won 6 of 8 career races this year, at the age of 7. If he is still in shape after a brief rest then he should easily win. Proven Warrior has been claimed so much he looks to be an article at the lost and found. Despite being a little on the cheap side he has some early zip and that can be dangerous. Defer Heaven has wins in the double digits with a 45% win rate, and he is only 5 years old. This is his level and he loves Lexington. Cannon Luke should leave the gate higher than his morning line since his last race was so bad. But he is usually bet well and has back class, and Hernandez stays aboard after that dismal performance.
Keeneland Race 7, 6 furlongs Optional $62,500 (4:24 ET)
Best Value Play: #7 Elusive Fate (8/1)
Most Likely Winner: #10 Enchantress (7/2)
Other Contenders: #3 House of Sole (4/1) #4 Meshell (9/2)
Analysis: Enchantress is hard to ignore because of the Pletcher-Velazquez connection, but her participation in graded stakes sticks out like a sore thumb. House of Sole has been pounded at the windows for her entire career and she has everything needed to win, which is tactical speed, overall speed and class. Meshell looks to be one who woke up with maturity after a brief rest. Her last in Hoosier country is eye catching. Elusive Fate is nicely bred and gets blinkers, and published a blistering work a week ago, which means the blinkers worked at least in the morning. She has a good deal of class and comes out of stakes company, and her trainer is one of the masters of the game.