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Churchill Race 6 6 furlongs Claiming $5,000 (4:30 ET)
Best Value Play: #3 Pleasant Angel (8/1)
Most Likely Winner: #4 Neverrguwithritchie (3/1)
Other Contenders: #5 Another Trick (5/2), #9 Citi Point (5/1)
Analysis: Neverrguwithritchie has a case with which it is hard to argue. Just look at his resume with the wins and the in the money finishes and you get an ill feeling going against him. Another Trick has been close three times this year, is always bet and loves Louisville. Citi Point goes for a new high percentage barn and has been in good form almost all year. Pleasant Angel comes from the French Quarter after an eight month rest, has long workouts, often gets bet well at this level and runs for a trainer that does well with layoffs and shippers.
Churchill Race 10 6 furlongs Claiming $ 15,000 2L (7:10 ET)
Best Value Play: #7 Swartz (15/1)
Most Likely Winner: #11 Swiss Confederate (4/1)
Other Contenders: #4 Wildwoodsgreatest (4/1) #8 Mysterious Circle (7/2)
Analysis: Swiss Confederate runs for a new barn after a freshener, takes a drop and gets Lanerie in the saddle. Wildwoodsgreatest visits Churchill from Chicago, runs for a solid barn and drops in class. Mysterious Circle goes up in class after being claimed by Tom Amoss, and that is attention getting. His back class suggests he can win this easily. Swartz comes to Louisville from West Virginia, drops in class and despite some inconsistencies, could win if the pace scenario is right.