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Aqueduct Race 2, 6 furlongs Optional Claiming $40,000 (1:19 ET)
Best Value Play: #3 Smokem’s Charm (12/1)
Most Likely Winner: #1 Brass Pear (6/5)
Other Contenders: #6 Free Mugatu (4/1), #8 Between the Lines (5/1)
Analysis: Brass Pear has blistering speed and drops to state company after a near miss against a field of open company allowance runners, and Ortiz stays up. Free Mugatu gets Derby winning Rosario in the irons and looks ready to go in his third off a layoff. Between the Lines returns to battle with a solid work tab and a string of consistent efforts. Smokem’s Charm will have to run exceptionally well to win but he does have a shot, plus his resume makes a strong case for him to be used in exotics.
Aqueduct Race 6, 7 furlongs Allowance 1X (3:16 ET)
Best Value Play: #9 Leilani’s Ticket (10/1)
Most Likely Winner: #4 Sassicaia (4/1)
Other Contenders: #2 Matterhorn (7/2) #3 Curious Cal (5/1)
Analysis: Sassicaia sports big figures, good results and comes back after a freshener for an extremely good trainer. Matterhorn runs for Pletcher and shows some graded stakes experience, which makes this entry level allowance runner dangerous. Curious Cal looms a danger with his speed and versatile style, plus he is in top form. Leilani’s Ticket gets Ortiz back aboard, breaks from an outside post which will help his off the pace running style, and if the pace is hot he has a chance to pick up the pieces.