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Friday April 5, 2013

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Keeneland Race 1,  6 ½ Furlongs Claiming $30,000 – 2L – F&M (1:05 ET)
Best Value Play: # 11 Clontarf (15/1)
Most Likely Winner: #1 Awesome Flower (8/5) coupled with #1a On the Same Page (8/5)
Other Contenders: # 8 Why Take a Chance (4/1)

Analysis: Trainers Mike Maker and Wesley Ward send out an entry for owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey. According to Keeneland Winning Trainer Patterns, Maker and Ward have 85 races at Keeneland in the last 6 meetings. These two guys, combined, have won 9.32% of all Keeneland races in that time period. This entry looks extremely tough. That’s just a pair of trainers out of hundreds. New York bred Why Take a Chance must be considered after running in several NY stakes and is trained by Ken McPeek, who also trains Tap All Night (#7), an Oaklawn shipper coming off an impressive maiden score. Clontarf ships in from Indiana for a former jockey looking for his first training win at Keeneland. Her race at Churchill last summer is a warning. She is capable if in good condition.

Keeneland Race 10,  6 Furlongs Claiming $10,000 (5:44 ET)
Best Value Play: # 10 Homage to Jack (20/1)
Most Likely Winner: # 2 Marquet Cat (5/2)
Other Contenders: # 4 Tahoe Warrior (4/1), # 3 Calculating Jimmy (7/2), # 8 Ghost Chapel (10/1)

Analysis: Hard to deny favoritism to Marquet Cat. According to Keeneland Winning Trainer Patterns, Maker has 40 races in the last 3 years at Keeneland (6 meetings) and the other trainers in the race have 8 collective wins. Tahoe Warrior is as tough as they come and showed good form on Presque Isle’s artificial surface. Calculating Jimmy has seen tougher company and ran well at Presque Isle, but needs the class relief he gets here. The mystery horse is Homage to Jack trained by the capable Thomas Drury. Despite being lightly raced with only one win, this runner gets a good post for his running style. His races over the Turfway strip tell us the Keeneland surface will be friendly. Drury scored a couple of years ago in a similar situation for this same owner.

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