Saturday, April 13, 2013

Keeneland  Race 1  6 Furlongs  Allowance 2L (1:05ET)

 Best Value Play: #6 Strong Response (6/1)

Most Likely Winner: #1 Special Jo (3/1)

Other Contenders: #2 Sayaad (3/1), #3 Off the Page (5/1), #4 Almost English (6/1)

Analysis: Special Jo ships in from the west for second race of the season after facing graded stakes company for most of 2012. Sayaad, the most expensive horse in the race, runs for McLaughlin, who has impressive numbers for shippers, first time Lasix and layoffs. Sayaad meets all the criteria. Off the Page is a beaten favorite and runs for Wesley Ward and that’s enough to scare you. Almost English has faced some tough ones in Florida and may be ignored by the public. Strong Response may get the perfect trip from the outside, has Rosie on board and runs for high percentage trainer Bret Calhoun.    

 Oaklawn Park  Race 9  6 Furlongs  Count Fleet G-3 (5:50 ET)

 Best Value Play: #1 Gentlemen’s Bet (8/1)

Most Likely Winner: #3 Justin Phillip (7/5)

Other Contenders: #2 Apprehender (6/1), #4 Laurie’s Rocket (7/2), #5 Flashpoint (7/2)

Analysis: Justin Phillip is well accomplished and appears to be the class in a competitive renewal of the Count Fleet. Apprehender likes Oaklawn and may have the versatility to pull an upset. Laurie’s Rocket is in top form and goes for a tough old duo in Lukas and Stevens. Flashpoint has mixed it up with these and may get an excellent trip. Gentlemen’s Bet is something of an unknown but has never faced defeat, likes the life in Hot Springs and has the numbers to get to the Winner’s Circle.