BetPTC Horses to Watch – April 25, 2015

Video Replay Report

Tony Kelzenberg for

Current Results (since the start of this blog, corrected and updated totals)

Starts – 80

Wins – 20 (25% win rate from starters)

In the money – 43 (54% in the money rate)

WIN Return on investment – plus 1.75%

This week:

Starters – 5

Winners – 0

In the money – 3

Winners’ report: None

Losers’ Report: A few close finishes but no payoff. Principessa Ava appears to have hit the wall from a development standpoint, and Three Hearts always manages to find trouble in the stretch. Both aren’t worth the trouble and are drops from the stable. Stock Yard Hen showed good speed off a vet scratching but could not make the lead. We’ll give SYH one more chance to get a win in a two-turn grass race. Tiger Bourbon keeps running the same race in restricted turf claimers, hitting the board without really threatening to win. TB’s another horse that deserves a chance to get it right. Miss Melinda’s last race at Gulfstream in allowance company was so poor I can’t believe it actually happened. I’ll keep her for one more race and see if she can turn it around.

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Stable Drops:

Principessa Ava and Three Hearts (see above).

Derby Prep Trip Notes

I already added Far Right, International Star and Mubtaahij to my stable because I think they both are consistent horses that can get into the superfecta at decent odds (12/1 to 20/1 range). In this segment I am going to review the trips of several Kentucky Derby-bound horses to see if they should be “moved up” or “moved down.”

Far Right (Arkansas Derby): Slight bump to his inside into American Pharoah coming out of the gate. Allowed to settle mamy lengths off the pace. Roused with the whip several times but interestingly was only hand-ridden in the stretch to get into second placing and a trip to Louisville. After the race Mike Smith was quoted he tried to “save something” for May 2nd. Move UP

El Kabier (Wood Mewmorial): Well beaten without an apparent excuse. Did have to go a bit wide coming off the second turn, largely after the race was down to Frosted and Tencendur. AVOID

Frosted (Wood Memorial): Mixed vibes here for me. He had slight trouble at the start and was wide on both turns. Race may have been run to suit with the slowish tempo (49 and 1:13.2). Looked like a very tired horse down the lane, but get points for tenacity and finishing the race off. TOUGH READ

American Pharoah (Arkansas Derby): Victor Espinoza never lowered his hands onto the Pharoah’s neck and never showed him the whip. I have never seen a horse win a race like that in 29 years of following the sport. Fractions of 45.4 and 1:10.2 were faster than in the Oaklawn Handicap featuring crack older miler Race Day at the same distance. Horse to Beat? I think so.

Firing Line (Sunland Derby): Off the form lines in the Robert B. Lewis and the fractions in the Sunland Park Derby (45.2, 1:09), this horse can run. Has to be in the mix. Move UP

Danzig Moon (Blue Grass): Slightly awkward and tardy start and bump early, 5 wide first turn, 6 wide second turn before putting a slight scare into Carpe Diem, who got a dream run just outside Ocho Ocho Ocho in 48 and 1:12. One thing for sure – they won’t go 48 in the Kentucky Derby. Move UP

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