BetPTC Horses to Watch – April 7, 2015

Video Replay Report

Tony Kelzenberg for


Current Results (since the start of this blog, corrected and updated totals)

Starts – 68

Wins – 16 (24% win rate from starters)

In the money –31 (51% in the money rate)

WIN Return on investment – minus 2.50%

This week:

Starters – 5

Winners – 0

In the money – 3

Winners’ report: Avenge broke her maiden on March 15th and I just got an e-mail notice this week. She paid $11.60. No additional winners this week.

Losers’ Report: Bolo and Ocho Ocho Ocho both ran OK behind super-horses du jour Carpe Diem and Dortmund but might still run in the Kentucky Derby. We’ll keep them in the stable for entertainment value. Tiz Shae D wad “Dreadful with a capital D” in the Wood. I can’t make an excuse for him. I’ll cut him now. Tiger Bourbon, as expected, ran much better on the grass. I’m sticking with him. Monsiuer Power ran OK down the hill without being a threat to the win. It looks like he needs Golden Gate competition and/or Tapeta all-weather. Another drop.

Stable Drops:

Tiz Shae D and Monsiuer Power (see above).

Stable Adds – Domestic:

Tasseography (Keeneland April 3th, Race 3, #7 saddlecloth) seemed to take a lot of slop on the inside and it might have affected her finish a bit. Most jockeys on this date seemed to avoid being on the rail too.

 Japan (Keeneland April 4th, Race 3, #6 saddlecloth) was very green and doesn’t seem to understand what racing is about, but put in a good fight against heavily-backed Wisecraker in a two-turn MSW.

Conquest Angel (Keeneland April 4th, Race 11, #11 saddlecloth) put in a huge wide run against a maiden field that looked strong on paper. Overcame bumping and a wide trip to win comfortably.

Stable Adds – out of Dubai World Cup day:

Mubtaahij – is a nice three year old with a fantastic distance pedigree and late charge. Some “experts” looking at the times from Dubai World Cup day don’t realize how deep the surface was – for example Secret Circle went 43.60 seconds in his Santa Anita prep for Dubai to the half mile, and he went 46.58 seconds for the half mile in Dubai! That is a huge difference for a top-class sprinter. With a lot of horses wanting to be on the speed in the Kentucky Derby, Mubtaahij can put in a big late run and be a factor.

What’s On Tap this Week and Next:

Avenge is set to face N1x allowance fillies and mares down the Santa Anita hill this Thursday the 9th in Race 7.

Yes For Success is set for a 6.5 furlong MSW race at Aqueduct on Friday the 10th in Race 6.

Far Right runs this Saturday the 11th against superhorse du jour American Pharaoh in the Arkansas Derby.

Metaboss just fired a bullet at Keeneland. Usually that means he’s within a week or two of racing.


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