BetPTC Horses to Watch – Feb. 3, 2015

Video Replay Report

Tony Kelzenberg for

Current Results (since the start of this blog):

Starts – 26

Wins – 7 (27% win rate from starters)

In the money – 16 (62% In the money rate)

WIN Return on Investment (-15.00%)

This week:

Starters – 9

Winners -1

In the money – 4

Rather than go through a very disappointing week on the blog, I will just review what I have been doing so far.

I have been looking at horses that have tough trips, and then adding them to the stable as potential runners, regardless of class level. Unfortunately trainers and owners will often run their horses where they don’t belong. Fond of Sarah is a great example.

Fond of Sarah broke her maiden at Suffolk Downs (not an overly classy track), then runs right back in a $100,000 stakes at Tampa and gets destroyed, but I thought she made a lot of sense to run back in an N1x allowance at Tampa, dirt or turf, so I didn’t care. I then added her to the stable. Instead she put in several works over five weeks, then got destroyed in an N1x allowance at Gulfstream. I have no idea why you would have a horse that screams “run me at Tampa,” but instead you run your horse (at 20/1) at Gulfstream instead.

To counter this “trainer’s malpractice,” I will try to keep most of my future selections on horses that have not broken their maiden with the logic being they will have a good chance to win their maiden and possibly their N1x allowance condition.

Stable “Drops for the week:”

Fond of Sara (see above)

Margano – has also been too ambitiously spotted his last few races.

Battle Red – has turned into a consistent loser and he never pays well anyway.

Additions to the stable:

West Eighth Street (23/1) and C’Mon Boys (5/1) both come out of the same Gulfstream Park maiden turf race on January 24 (Race 3). WES was wide on both turns and only lost by a length and a quarter. C’Mon Boys was dreadful but is bred to be a monster and deserves another chance.

Wisecracker ran a winning race but could not hold off the talented half-brother to Royal Delta, Khozan, in the 6th Race at Gulfstream on Jan 24th. Final time was strong and both horses could have good futures.

New Summit and The Man (common races of the 2nd race on Jan 3rd and the 4th race on Jan 25th) keep knocking heads and putting up good speed. Both have the ability to win their N1X condition.


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