Video Replay Report
Tony Kelzenberg for BetPTC.com
4/29/2015
Sadly, I lost my records for this past week on how my horses ran. No winners to report. Basically it was a break-even scenario over more than 80 starters. Good news – we beat the take out! Bad news nobody got rich either. Stating Kentucky Derby week I will start a new count and see if I can do a little better on profitability.
My Picks for the 2015 Kentucky Oaks:
1st – Birdonthewire (13)
2nd – Lovely Maria (7)
3rd – Eskenformoney (4)
4th – Stellar Wind (12)
Longshot – Ocenwave (10)
Here are my observations on the Kentucky Oaks field from Video and Bris PPs:
Fair Grounds Oaks: Forever Unbridled (Bet number 1), Shook Up (2) and I’m a Chatterbox (8) were all literally crawling down the lane, and the Bris Late Pace numbers confirm the video. As a rule I never bet horses with a Bris Late Pace lower than 80 and the Late Paces for these three in the FG Oaks were 68, 69 and 72. No thanks.
Fantasy Stakes: Include Betty (3) and Oceanwave (10) come out of Oaklawn Park’s Fantasy Stakes and both appear to be contenders in this race if the speed falls apart. Both have Bris Late Pace of 105 or higher – excellent late pace. For what it is worth I think Oceanwave is better if you can only afford to use one of these two solid contenders (and she’ll be 30/1). Sarah Sis (11) has some pace but just isn’t fast enough.
Gulfstream Park Oaks: Eskenformoney (4) and Birdatthewire (12) are two of the East Coast horses to play in the Oaks. Birdatthewire kept pulling hard, but eventually got settled down and won the GP Oaks. One thing to consider AGAINST Birdatthewire on Oaks Day – can she “keep it together mentally” and NOT LOSE the race? Off the GP Oaks video she has the potential to win the Ky Oaks fairly easily.
Gazelle: Condo Commando (5), Money’soncharlotte (9) and Puca (14) ran in the Gazelle at Aqueduct. Or more like “staggered home.” “Charlotte” finished the best but only a marginally acceptable Bris Late Pace of 83. Marginal doesn’t cut it in the Oaks. I am not using any horses out of this race. However, Condo Commando will insure a swift pace for the closers to run into.
Ashland: Angela Renee (6) and Lovely Maria (7) ran here. Lovely Maria was wider than Angela Renee on both turns, and Lovely Maria finished strongly late too, with a Bris Late Pace of 99, a huge number for a speed horse. The only catch was ‘Maria was a tittle tardy switching leads late. Strong Effort.
Santa Anita Oaks: Stellar Wind (12) looks like a formidable opponent. Huge wins going long coming from long distance-sire Curlin. Once thing to note – she’s only 6th on Bris’ Prime Power rating, which indicates you should not single here in the pick 4.