BetPTC Horses to Watch – March 17, 2015

Video Replay Report

Tony Kelzenberg for


Current Results (since the start of this blog, corrected and updated totals)

Starts – 47

Wins – 12 (26% win rate from starters)

In the money – 28 (55% in the money rate)

WIN Return on investment – plus 2.13%

This week:

Starters – 4

Winners – 0

In the money – 3

Winners’ report: None

Losers’ Report: Three Hearts has put in three good runs in a row and appears to be a fixture in the Southern California filly and mare turf races. It would be nice to see her win one of these races for the Team Valor operation. Lady Of Gold’s form has significantly degraded and it looks like she needs a break. We’ll drop Lady of Gold from the stable. Contrarian Bet and Yes For Success both dueled in different six-furlong races with the race favorite in each, put away said favorites, then got passed in deep stretch by the late speed. Contrarian Bet will be a factor in these lower-level La-Bred races, and Yes For Success was coming off a very long break because of all the weather cancellations at Aqueduct. I will give both of these sprinters another go around.

Stable Drops:

Lady of Gold – see above.

Stable Adds:

Metaboss (Golden Gate Race 7 on 2/14/15, #3 Saddlecloth). I felt a little sheepish when I did not add him to this list in January after he broke his maiden going 9 furlongs on the Santa Anita turf – he paid $15.50 winning the El Camino Real – but it was the WAY he won the El Camino Real that showed he could be a superior synthetic surface horse. Metaboss will be running in the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park this Saturday, March 21st and he has to be given a big chance. Long term he has the potential to be a top grass runner too.

Power Jam (Santa Anita Race 2 on 2/14/15, #3 Saddlecloth) is just super fast and is a significant gate to wire threat in the Sunland Park Derby. He can also rate off the speed in the “2 path” and by my figures he has a lot more talent than Lord Jim, who may also run as an uncoupled entry for trainer Bob Baffert.

The Truth Or Else (Oaklawn Park Race 7 on 3/14/15, #1 Saddlecloth). This horse is pretty decent, but on the day of the Rebel you could see how aggressively jockeys were staying far OFF the rail. Unfortunately nobody got the memo to jockey Calvin “Borail” Borel, who kept trying to have his mount make a charge up the rail. This unfortunate trip coupled with the dominance of American Pharaoh being able to set a very slow tempo made for a 4th place finish, but this horse could come right back with a top two finish in the Arkansas Derby with some racing luck. At the very least he looks to be a legitimate stakes horse.


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