BetPTC Horses to Watch – March 30, 2015

Video Replay Report

Tony Kelzenberg for BetPTC.com

Week of 3/25/15

Current Results (since the start of this blog, corrected and updated totals)

Starts – 58

Wins – 15 (26% win rate from starters)

In the money –30 (52% in the money rate)

WIN Return on investment – plus 4.66%

This week:

Starters – 6

Winners – 2

In the money – 3

Winners’ report: Dubai Sky is now one of the “name” horses for the Kentucky Derby, but this column had him tabbed quite a while ago. Great win in the Spiral and a Bill Mott horse paying $16.80! Now that’s cool. The Man finally broke his maiden sprinting and paid a much less scintillating $3.80. I expect The Man to go through his N1x allowance condition quickly now that it looks like Baffert will keep this one sprinting at 7 furlongs or less.

Losers’ Report: New pick up Metaboss was disappointing as the favorite for the Spiral, but really his future will be on the grass and maybe he can show up in a big race like the Belmont Derby and make some noise there. I picked up Tiger Bourbon EXPRESSLY for grass races and his trainer does a 180 and places him in a dirt route. And it didn’t go well. I’ll give the horse (and trainer) one more chance to do the right thing and put this one on the grass. Centrique was placed into another graded stake at Gulfstream and she again got it handed to her. She was nearly 36/1 this past weekend so maybe trainer Marty Wolfson will start to get the message. Cleartap showed good early speed, dueled, and faded in the stretch to a deep closer late. Maybe she should be stretched out so she can cruise at a more comfortable speed? Her next race will be her third start and she is a daughter of Tapit, so hopefully her connections go in that direction. The sprint game is not working.

Stable Drops:

None

Stable Adds – Domestic:

Where’s The Moon (Sunland Park Race 11 – Sunland Derby – 3/22/15, #3 Saddlecloth) had run two excellent races with blinkers, and wore them in the Sunland Derby too, but the ‘game plan’ went out the window when this horse was checked going into the first turn and was shuffled back to last. Got clobbered like every other horse by Firing Line, but showed good energy rallying well on the second turn and finishing well for second. Does not appear to be a Kentucky Derby contender but fits in decent N2x allowance races and minor stakes anywhere out West.

Wireless Future (Turfway Park Race 11 – Spiral Stakes – 3/21/15, #4 Saddlecloth) WAS the quality speed, but he had shown the ability to relax off the speed a bit and in the Spiral got stuck needlessly in the midst of a three-way speed duel. The pace wound up being 2 seconds (10 lengths) faster than I anticipated (killing my Spiral bets) but more importantly killing any chance Wireless Future had to win.   This one can fire back big time.

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