BetPTC Horses to Watch – March 6, 2015

Video Replay Report

Tony Kelzenberg for BetPTC.com

Current Results (since the start of this blog)

Starts – 43

Wins – 12 (28% win rate from starters)

In the money – 23 (53% in the money rate)

WIN Return on investment – plus 11.63%

This week:

Starters – 3

Winners – 0

In the money – 0

Winners’ report: None

Losers’ Report: Airfoil came back sprinting in an optional claimer at Santa Anita and showed little, clunking up for fourth while well beaten. Gets one last chance to turn it around. Wabel and The Man were entered in the same maiden race going 8.5 furlongs and both ran like outclassed sprinters. These two horses will have to go back to sprinting, but it is debatable if Wabel can win a Maiden Special Weight (MSW) sprint in Southern California. We’ll give both horses one more opportunity to shine.

Stable Drops:

None

Stable Adds:

Blue Law (Santa Anita Race 1 on 2/28/15, #3 Saddlecloth) was the 9/10 favorite off a very nice turf debut. Did he deserve to be 9/10 last weekend? Not really, but Kent Desormeaux put this horse on the engine and made what looked on paper to be a paceless affair into a stiff battle of attrition, going out in 46.68 for the half and 1:11.76 for 6 furlongs, and setting a pace that fast would cook most maiden horses. Certainly willing to give this horse another chance for the win.

Anniversary Kitty (SA Race 4 on 2/28/15, #11 Saddlecloth) was not able to “slot in” because the pace down the hill was not fast enough to “stretch the field.” The result was ‘Kitty’ was at least 6 wide on the big turn (the charts said 6 wide, I actually had her eight wide into the stretch). Even after all the wide traffic, she mad a small rally in deep stretch in a game effort. Play this one right back.

Nob Hill (SA Race 1 on 2/28/15, #11 Saddlecloth) was “only” 16 and ½ lengths back at the half mile split, which gave him absolutely no chance to win. The fact he could rally to a very close 3rd within ½ length of a brutal finish shows that this horse has determination, and on paper going into the race it appeared he had some talent too. Judging by his PPs his best distance is probably a mile or a mile and a 16th.

What’s On Tap?

Wisecracker was entered to run on Saturday the 28th of February but his race (and several other races) got rained out. I would expect Gulfstream to write an identical maiden race for the weekend of March 6th through March 8th. Unfortunately Khozan won again before Wisecracker was able to run, so there will be little value.

Ocean Knight will be one of the favorites for the March 7th Tampa Bay Derby.

Yes For Success, who was entered twice but had its races cancelled because of cold weather, continues to train like a champ at Belmont Park. Look for her to run well in a MSW 6 furlong race on the Aqueduct Inner track.

Principessa Ava probably will enter the filly turf stake on Tampa Bay Derby day. She has shown flashes of talent and with a little luck she can win at a price this weekend.

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