BetPTC Horses to Watch – Nov. 25, 2014

From Races run on Saturday, Nov. 22nd

Aqueduct R6, N2x/$62,500 3up, 6.5 furlongs (dirt)

Honor Code and Maleeh both ran extremely well while getting very clean trips (watch Honor Code especially – he hardly had to slow down or check). To me, Honor Code and his “get back” style is much more suited to chasing sprinter splits around one turn. He may be vulnerable going two turns against Grade 1 horses.

Aquduct R7, N1x, 3up,1 mile (turf)

Adirondack Dancer “pulled” against the jockey from the start of the race until early stretch then had little punch for the drive. Very late the #8 horse came over from the two path and to avoid clipping heels AD’s jock stopped riding, costing him 3rd place. I think this horse would definitely be worth another shot at the N1x allowance, or in high claimers at the mile on turf. Perhaps a jock switch would also help.

Del Mar R4, N1x/$40,000 clm., Fillies and Mares, 5 furlongs (turf)

Blake’s Magic was a perfect trip winner. Looks very vulnerable moving to the N2x allowance level. The unlucky Air of Royalty was 3 wide on the backstretch and was forced to fan out 5 wide into the stretch, losing momentum. Finished OK to only lose by a length. Air of Royalty certainly fits at this N1x level.

Del Mar R8 – $100,000 stakes, 3 up Fillies and Mares, 1 mile 3/8 (turf)

Three Hearts had to move a bit early, but was able to save most of the ground and prevail in a good effort. Lady of Gold was three wide without cover for most of the race. This is a physically taxing position to be in because the horse is losing ground while simultaneously getting a lot of air resistance. It also looked like the jock moved too early on her as well. Play Lady of Gold back in low-level stakes or conditioned allowance company.

Del Mar R9 – 3up Fillies and Mares Maiden Special Weight – 6 furlongs (polytrack)

What little I saw of Sayes So loading during the video replay (she was the last horse put in the gate) gave me the impression this was one athletic horse and she ran to her good looks in a nearly effortless Maiden Special romp. Give her a chance to win moving up to the N1X allowance level.

Sunday, Nov. 23nd

 Aqueduct R4, MSW, Fillies and Mares, 3up, 1 mile and 1/16 (turf)

Keri Belle bumped another horse right out of the gate, then in a paceless field was able to get to the lead on her own open up on the opposition by five lengths setting very, very, soft fractions (25.14, 50.30, 1:18.61). From a pure numbers perspective, this race was the slowest of the slow, BUT there some things about her performance I really liked. She relaxed beautifully when she made the lead, indicating setting the fractions may be her style of running. It also looks like she could run all day, and a lot of those marathon mile and 3/8 or mile and a half races are paceless affairs anyway. Keri Bell also changed leads on cue (how often do we play a lose leader and it blows the win by NOT changing leads?) then the 4/5 favorite Trophee cut the margin to 2 lengths and KB finished well enough. The other horses in this race were dreadful.

Aqueduct R7, N1x/$40,000 clm., 3up, 1 mile and 3/8 (turf)

Innovation Economy was a romping winner, but early in the stretch drive he was wanting to bore in (move left). Bishop’s Castle made a bold, but premature 4 wide move on the final turn. Might be worth following both horses.

Del Mar R6, N1x/$40,000 clm., 3up 6.5 furlongs (polytrack)

Derringer is only 2 for 20 lifetime, but he is bred to be a router and he looks and runs more like a sprinter/miler than a true sprinter. He is taller than most sprint types and he has a pretty long stride. He was able to go 44.91 seconds for the half mile dueling with the favorite here. I would like to see Derringer go long and see how far he can carry his speed.

Del Mar R7, N1x Cal-bred, 3up, Fillies and Mares, 5 furlongs (turf)

Odds-on winner Dancinthenightaway is a very big filly with a lot of scope and speed. Expect much bigger things from her. She is a threat to win going “down the hill” at Santa Anita, or going a mile on the main Santa Anita turf course.

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