Breeder’s Cup Morning Lines

I will be in Arcadia for the Breeders’ Cup this year and I won’t be able to do my usual “Aussie Preview.”  I will do a FULL Aussie preview on the Melbourne Cup Sunday night, which will be run Monday night in the Western Hemisphere.

I haven’t looked at Saturday’s action from Santa Anita, but here are my “Fair Odds” for the FRIDAY races I felt good about.

Friday SA Race 1 – with AEs entered
Betting Run Est. Peak Fair
Number Horse Style Effort Pattern/Form Effort Odds
13 AE My Slew E/P5 Razor sharp 210.0  3/1
3 Ankney Hill E8 Peaked 207.0  4/1
5 Love de Car E7 Peaked 199.0  7/1
10 Kochees P1 90 days+ layoff 198.0  7/1
8 Pure Loyalty P0 Class advantage at Del Mar 196.0  9/1
9 He’s Had Enough P1 90 days+ layoff 194.0  11/1
6 Yankee Rebel P1 Effort dip 189.0  28/1
11 U S Citizen P3 Decent form 189.0  28/1
14 AE Hello Frankie E/P2 Steps up from a starter allowance 188.0  40/1
4 Somethings Unusual S0 Off form 187.0
12 Omega Star P0 Off form 186.0
2 Cacau E/P4 Off form 184.0
1 Rangi E4 Off form 182.0
7 Pirate’s Pleasure E4 90+ layoff 181.0
Friday SA Race 1 – without AEs
Betting Run Est. Peak Fair
Number Horse Style Effort Pattern/Form Effort Odds
3 Ankney Hill E8 Peaked 207.0  3/1
5 Love de Car E7 Peaked 199.0  5/1
10 Kochees P1 90+ layoff 198.0  6/1
8 Pure Loyalty P0 Class advantage at Del Mar 196.0  7/1
9 He’s Had Enough P1 90 days+ layoff 194.0  8/1
6 Yankee Rebel P1 Effort dip 189.0  16/1
11 U S Citizen P3 Decent form 189.0  16/1
4 Somethings Unusual S0 Off form 187.0  27/1
12 Omega Star P0 Off form 186.0  39/1
2 Cacau E/P4 Off form 184.0
1 Rangi E4 Off form 182.0
7 Pirate’s Pleasure E4 90 days+ layoff 181.0
Friday SA Race 2
Betting Run Est. Peak Fair
Number Horse Style Effort Pattern/Form Effort Odds
2 Got Even E6 90 days+ layoff 207.0  3/1
6 Door’s Open E8 Used up Cal-bred conditions.  3 for 3 at SA 200.0  5/1
13 Wild Dude P3 Good form.  Broke maiden on 3rd try. 199.0  6/1
11 Drover Crazy P3 Good maiden win in 4th try. 198.0  6/1
10 Raised a Secret E/P2 Used up Cal-bred conditions.  0 for 2 at SA 195.0  9/1
5 Newfound Gold E5 Won last – steps up.  Improving. 194.0  11/1
1 Gab Power S0 Off form 191.0  22/1
3 Basmati E5 Decent form 190.0  33/1
7 Monument P3 90+ layoff 185.0
8 Kingpin Ryno P3 Off form 185.0
9 Cat Burglar P0 Nice two-turn SA maiden win 185.0
4 Master Clip E/P4 Badly off form 182.0
12 Heir of Storm P2 Off form 173.0
Friday SA Race 3
Betting Run Est. Peak Fair
Number Horse Style Effort Pattern/Form Effort Odds
4 Gangnam Guy E6 Can pass a few horses. 188.0  5/2
1 California Chrome E/P6 Big class drop from Del Mar Futurity. 182.0  4/1
7 Tamarando S3 Flashy Grade 1 winner – big class drop. 181.0  9/2
2 Life Is a Joy E8 Will fight for the lead. 177.0  8/1
3 Electric Eddie P4 Still a maiden. 176.0  10/1
8 Cinmars Dance P2 Broke his maiden in a 2-turn SA race. 174.0  17/1
9 Better Bet E/P 5 Off form, heavily raced. 173.0  25/1
6 Sir Barclay S6 Will close. 167.0
5 Tribal Mystic E8 Broke his maiden for $32,000 166.0
Friday SA Race 4
Betting Run Est. Peak Fair
Number Horse Style Effort Pattern/Form Effort Odds
9 Moving Desert E/P8 Sprint bred. 186.0  5/2
10 Swiss Lake Yodeler E6 Sprint bred. 182.0  7/2
1 Smoove It E8 Looks like a sprinter.  2nd up 177.0  6/1
3 Rovenna E/P6 Poor late pace. 175.0  8/1
8 Stole a Kiss S3 Eligible for N1X. 174.0  10/1
2 Cal Gal E/P8 Bred to turf sprint. 173.0  13/1
4 Meinertzhageni P4 Will close. 171.0  25/1
7 Whatsallthedrama S2 Will close. 167.0
5 Time for Angie S4 Way off form. 163.0
6 Harlington’s Rose E8 Off form. 162.0
Friday SA Race 5
Betting Run Est. Peak Fair
Number Horse Style Effort Pattern/Form Effort Odds
3 Den’s Legacy E/P4 202.0  3/1
2 Charming Kitten P1 Ignoring Haw soft turf 191.0  8/1
6 Dry Summer E/P0 Blinkers ON 191.0  8/1
7 Kid Dreams P2 Ignoring Haw soft turf 190.0  9/1
8 Avare E8 190.0  9/1
4 Dice Flavor S3 189.0  10/1
1 Irish Surf P3 188.0  12/1
10 Gervinho E/P6 188.0  12/1
13 Outside Nashville P2 184.0  37/1
9 Procurement S2 182.0
12 Gabriel Charles S3 179.0
5 Rookie Sensation S2 177.0
11 Rising Legend S2 175.0
Friday SA Race 8
Betting Run Est. Peak Fair
Number Horse Style Effort Pattern/Form Effort Odds
10 Verrazano E/P7 Difficult to project a figure.  Using Ky Derby figs. 220.0  4/1
2 Golden Ticket P3 217.0  5/1
1 Taptowne E7 215.0  7/1
13 AE Easter Gift P5 A really nice horse.  Threat if in. 215.0  7/1
6 Broadway Enpire E/P6 Not fully exposed. 214.0  8/1
11 Pants On Fire E/P5 3 wins for last 3 when kept off the pace! 214.0  8/1
12 Goldencents E/P6 Bred for this distance. 211.0  14/1
5 Fed Biz E/P4 209.0  26/1
4 Brujo de Olleros P6 208.0  47/1
3 Hymn Book S2 10-0-5-1 on FAST 204.0
9 Centralintelligence E/P8 Big stretch out in speed-laden field.  Yuck. 204.0
8 Holy Lute P3 Ran well in the Indiana Derby. 198.0
7 Alpha E/P5 Ignoring slop Whitney win and Gold Cup flop. 190.0
Friday SA Race 10
Betting Run Est. Peak Fair
Number Horse Style Effort Pattern/Form Effort Odds
5 Beholder E/P7 Using Ky Oaks run. 217.0  2/1
4 Royal Delta E7 Ignoring Del ‘Cap race against much weaker. 215.0  3/1
6 Princess of Sylmar P2 Consistently fast.  Afterthought race. 215.0  3/1
3 Close Hatches E/P5 207.0  12/1
2 Authenticity E/P5 206.0  18/1
1 Street Girl P2 190.0

 

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