I will be in Arcadia for the Breeders’ Cup this year and I won’t be able to do my usual “Aussie Preview.” I will do a FULL Aussie preview on the Melbourne Cup Sunday night, which will be run Monday night in the Western Hemisphere.
I haven’t looked at Saturday’s action from Santa Anita, but here are my “Fair Odds” for the FRIDAY races I felt good about.
| Friday SA Race 1 – with AEs entered | |||||
| Betting | Run | Est. Peak | Fair | ||
| Number | Horse | Style | Effort Pattern/Form | Effort | Odds |
| 13 AE | My Slew | E/P5 | Razor sharp | 210.0 | 3/1 |
| 3 | Ankney Hill | E8 | Peaked | 207.0 | 4/1 |
| 5 | Love de Car | E7 | Peaked | 199.0 | 7/1 |
| 10 | Kochees | P1 | 90 days+ layoff | 198.0 | 7/1 |
| 8 | Pure Loyalty | P0 | Class advantage at Del Mar | 196.0 | 9/1 |
| 9 | He’s Had Enough | P1 | 90 days+ layoff | 194.0 | 11/1 |
| 6 | Yankee Rebel | P1 | Effort dip | 189.0 | 28/1 |
| 11 | U S Citizen | P3 | Decent form | 189.0 | 28/1 |
| 14 AE | Hello Frankie | E/P2 | Steps up from a starter allowance | 188.0 | 40/1 |
| 4 | Somethings Unusual | S0 | Off form | 187.0 | |
| 12 | Omega Star | P0 | Off form | 186.0 | |
| 2 | Cacau | E/P4 | Off form | 184.0 | |
| 1 | Rangi | E4 | Off form | 182.0 | |
| 7 | Pirate’s Pleasure | E4 | 90+ layoff | 181.0 | |
| Friday SA Race 1 – without AEs | |||||
| Betting | Run | Est. Peak | Fair | ||
| Number | Horse | Style | Effort Pattern/Form | Effort | Odds |
| 3 | Ankney Hill | E8 | Peaked | 207.0 | 3/1 |
| 5 | Love de Car | E7 | Peaked | 199.0 | 5/1 |
| 10 | Kochees | P1 | 90+ layoff | 198.0 | 6/1 |
| 8 | Pure Loyalty | P0 | Class advantage at Del Mar | 196.0 | 7/1 |
| 9 | He’s Had Enough | P1 | 90 days+ layoff | 194.0 | 8/1 |
| 6 | Yankee Rebel | P1 | Effort dip | 189.0 | 16/1 |
| 11 | U S Citizen | P3 | Decent form | 189.0 | 16/1 |
| 4 | Somethings Unusual | S0 | Off form | 187.0 | 27/1 |
| 12 | Omega Star | P0 | Off form | 186.0 | 39/1 |
| 2 | Cacau | E/P4 | Off form | 184.0 | |
| 1 | Rangi | E4 | Off form | 182.0 | |
| 7 | Pirate’s Pleasure | E4 | 90 days+ layoff | 181.0 | |
| Friday SA Race 2 | |||||
| Betting | Run | Est. Peak | Fair | ||
| Number | Horse | Style | Effort Pattern/Form | Effort | Odds |
| 2 | Got Even | E6 | 90 days+ layoff | 207.0 | 3/1 |
| 6 | Door’s Open | E8 | Used up Cal-bred conditions. 3 for 3 at SA | 200.0 | 5/1 |
| 13 | Wild Dude | P3 | Good form. Broke maiden on 3rd try. | 199.0 | 6/1 |
| 11 | Drover Crazy | P3 | Good maiden win in 4th try. | 198.0 | 6/1 |
| 10 | Raised a Secret | E/P2 | Used up Cal-bred conditions. 0 for 2 at SA | 195.0 | 9/1 |
| 5 | Newfound Gold | E5 | Won last – steps up. Improving. | 194.0 | 11/1 |
| 1 | Gab Power | S0 | Off form | 191.0 | 22/1 |
| 3 | Basmati | E5 | Decent form | 190.0 | 33/1 |
| 7 | Monument | P3 | 90+ layoff | 185.0 | |
| 8 | Kingpin Ryno | P3 | Off form | 185.0 | |
| 9 | Cat Burglar | P0 | Nice two-turn SA maiden win | 185.0 | |
| 4 | Master Clip | E/P4 | Badly off form | 182.0 | |
| 12 | Heir of Storm | P2 | Off form | 173.0 | |
| Friday SA Race 3 | |||||
| Betting | Run | Est. Peak | Fair | ||
| Number | Horse | Style | Effort Pattern/Form | Effort | Odds |
| 4 | Gangnam Guy | E6 | Can pass a few horses. | 188.0 | 5/2 |
| 1 | California Chrome | E/P6 | Big class drop from Del Mar Futurity. | 182.0 | 4/1 |
| 7 | Tamarando | S3 | Flashy Grade 1 winner – big class drop. | 181.0 | 9/2 |
| 2 | Life Is a Joy | E8 | Will fight for the lead. | 177.0 | 8/1 |
| 3 | Electric Eddie | P4 | Still a maiden. | 176.0 | 10/1 |
| 8 | Cinmars Dance | P2 | Broke his maiden in a 2-turn SA race. | 174.0 | 17/1 |
| 9 | Better Bet | E/P 5 | Off form, heavily raced. | 173.0 | 25/1 |
| 6 | Sir Barclay | S6 | Will close. | 167.0 | |
| 5 | Tribal Mystic | E8 | Broke his maiden for $32,000 | 166.0 | |
| Friday SA Race 4 | |||||
| Betting | Run | Est. Peak | Fair | ||
| Number | Horse | Style | Effort Pattern/Form | Effort | Odds |
| 9 | Moving Desert | E/P8 | Sprint bred. | 186.0 | 5/2 |
| 10 | Swiss Lake Yodeler | E6 | Sprint bred. | 182.0 | 7/2 |
| 1 | Smoove It | E8 | Looks like a sprinter. 2nd up | 177.0 | 6/1 |
| 3 | Rovenna | E/P6 | Poor late pace. | 175.0 | 8/1 |
| 8 | Stole a Kiss | S3 | Eligible for N1X. | 174.0 | 10/1 |
| 2 | Cal Gal | E/P8 | Bred to turf sprint. | 173.0 | 13/1 |
| 4 | Meinertzhageni | P4 | Will close. | 171.0 | 25/1 |
| 7 | Whatsallthedrama | S2 | Will close. | 167.0 | |
| 5 | Time for Angie | S4 | Way off form. | 163.0 | |
| 6 | Harlington’s Rose | E8 | Off form. | 162.0 | |
| Friday SA Race 5 | |||||
| Betting | Run | Est. Peak | Fair | ||
| Number | Horse | Style | Effort Pattern/Form | Effort | Odds |
| 3 | Den’s Legacy | E/P4 | 202.0 | 3/1 | |
| 2 | Charming Kitten | P1 | Ignoring Haw soft turf | 191.0 | 8/1 |
| 6 | Dry Summer | E/P0 | Blinkers ON | 191.0 | 8/1 |
| 7 | Kid Dreams | P2 | Ignoring Haw soft turf | 190.0 | 9/1 |
| 8 | Avare | E8 | 190.0 | 9/1 | |
| 4 | Dice Flavor | S3 | 189.0 | 10/1 | |
| 1 | Irish Surf | P3 | 188.0 | 12/1 | |
| 10 | Gervinho | E/P6 | 188.0 | 12/1 | |
| 13 | Outside Nashville | P2 | 184.0 | 37/1 | |
| 9 | Procurement | S2 | 182.0 | ||
| 12 | Gabriel Charles | S3 | 179.0 | ||
| 5 | Rookie Sensation | S2 | 177.0 | ||
| 11 | Rising Legend | S2 | 175.0 | ||
| Friday SA Race 8 | |||||
| Betting | Run | Est. Peak | Fair | ||
| Number | Horse | Style | Effort Pattern/Form | Effort | Odds |
| 10 | Verrazano | E/P7 | Difficult to project a figure. Using Ky Derby figs. | 220.0 | 4/1 |
| 2 | Golden Ticket | P3 | 217.0 | 5/1 | |
| 1 | Taptowne | E7 | 215.0 | 7/1 | |
| 13 AE | Easter Gift | P5 | A really nice horse. Threat if in. | 215.0 | 7/1 |
| 6 | Broadway Enpire | E/P6 | Not fully exposed. | 214.0 | 8/1 |
| 11 | Pants On Fire | E/P5 | 3 wins for last 3 when kept off the pace! | 214.0 | 8/1 |
| 12 | Goldencents | E/P6 | Bred for this distance. | 211.0 | 14/1 |
| 5 | Fed Biz | E/P4 | 209.0 | 26/1 | |
| 4 | Brujo de Olleros | P6 | 208.0 | 47/1 | |
| 3 | Hymn Book | S2 | 10-0-5-1 on FAST | 204.0 | |
| 9 | Centralintelligence | E/P8 | Big stretch out in speed-laden field. Yuck. | 204.0 | |
| 8 | Holy Lute | P3 | Ran well in the Indiana Derby. | 198.0 | |
| 7 | Alpha | E/P5 | Ignoring slop Whitney win and Gold Cup flop. | 190.0 | |
| Friday SA Race 10 | |||||
| Betting | Run | Est. Peak | Fair | ||
| Number | Horse | Style | Effort Pattern/Form | Effort | Odds |
| 5 | Beholder | E/P7 | Using Ky Oaks run. | 217.0 | 2/1 |
| 4 | Royal Delta | E7 | Ignoring Del ‘Cap race against much weaker. | 215.0 | 3/1 |
| 6 | Princess of Sylmar | P2 | Consistently fast. Afterthought race. | 215.0 | 3/1 |
| 3 | Close Hatches | E/P5 | 207.0 | 12/1 | |
| 2 | Authenticity | E/P5 | 206.0 | 18/1 | |
| 1 | Street Girl | P2 | 190.0 | ||