Breeders’ Cup Saturday at Santa Anita, 11/5/2016

Race 4 Santa Anita (Post 3:05 Eastern)  BC Juvenile Fillies (8.5 furlongs) – Grade 1

Class:  Undetermined

Expected Pace:  With Honors will send from post 2.  American Gal (post 12) has sprint speed and will either make the lead or sit outside With Honors.  Jamyson and Ginger showed a lot of pace on a wet track, which she won’t get in Southern California in the Fall.  It’s a tough read to predict how she will do on fast dirt.  Noted and Quoted will be handy.

Consistency:  Yellow Agate is 2 for 2 wins, including a nice score at 32/1 in her debut.

Bet PTC.com selections:

1st – #12 American Gal (6/1)  

2nd – #4 Yellow Agate (8/1)  

3rd – #7 Jamyson and Ginger (9/2)

4th – #10 Noted and Quoted (9/2)

I think AMERICAN GAL is the best athlete in this group and unless both Jamyson and Ginger and With Honors go on a suicide mission on the front end the pace should be reasonable.  Yellow Agate beat Jamyson and Ginger “on the square” on September 11th and I see no reason why she can’t do it again.  Noted and Quoted LOVES Santa Anita but the reality the isn’t a very dynamic individual.  She’ll be fortunate to hit the top three in this race.

 

Race 5 Santa Anita (Post 3:43 Eastern)  BC Filly and Mare Turf (10 furlongs) – Grade 1

Class:  Lady Eli with $1.8 Million in earnings

Expected Pace: Catch a Glimpse will try to go wire to wire

Consistency:  Lady Eli is (8-7-1-0) in her career

Bet PTC.com selections:

1st – #1 Sea Calisi (8/1)  

2nd – #8 Lady Eli (5/2)  

3rd – #5 Al’s Gal (15/1)

4th – #6 Zipessa (20/1)

SEA CALISI and Lady Eli are the best two horses on Thoro-graph numbers.  Cold exacta box.  Al’s Gal and Zipessa are slower, but ULTRA-consistent.  I promise you one of them will end up in the super.

 

Race 6 Santa Anita (Post 4:21 Eastern)  BC Sprint (6 furlongs) – Grade 1

Class:  Lord Nelson with $958,271 in earnings in 13 starts

Expected Pace: Masochistic and Delta Bluesman are going to set a sub :44 half mile split.

Consistency:  A.P. Indian is 6 for 6 in 2016, and Lord Nelson is 4 for 4.  Masochistic is 2 for 2

Bet PTC.com selections:

1st – #6 Lord Nelson (5/2)  

2nd – #5 A.P. Indian (4/1)  

3rd – #7 Masochistic (2/1)

4th – #8 Noholdingback Bear (15/1)

LORD NELSON is on a roll and he can pass horses.  He also owns the top Thoro-graph number in the field.  Choice.  A.P. Indian is hot too, and if this race was at Saratoga he’s be the favorite.  Unfortunately his TG numbers aren’t as good away from Upstate New York.  Masochistic will go on the lead as far as he can.  Usually “need the lead types” do not win that way in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.  Noholdingback Bear showed a new dimension while closing in a big stakes race at Parx.  He will probably show similar tactics again, but these are much better animals to face this weekend.

 

Race 7 Santa Anita (Post 4:21 Eastern)  BC Turf Sprint (about 6.5 furlongs) – Grade 1

Class:  Celestine has earned $824,755 in 13 starts  Obviously has earned $1.77 million in 28 starts.

Expected Pace: Pure Sensation, Obviously and Mongolian Saturday are going to set a sub :43 half mile split.

Consistency:  Om is (10-4-3-2) in his career on the grass.  Celestine is (11-6-2-2) on the grass.

Bet PTC.com selections:

1st – #14 Celestine (8/1)  

2nd – #12 Om (12/1)  

3rd – #10 Ambitious Brew (10/1)

4th – #9 A Lot (8/1)

Celestine is a good animal and she’s proven she can track a fast pace and finish strong.  Om drew wide, which will also help him.  Gary Stevens knows this is a good chance to get another Breeders’ Cup win.  Ambitious Brew is 5 wins in 9 starts down the hill – that has to be worth something.  Also he drew fairly wide, where he should be able to avoid trouble.  A Lot is a hard trier that usually misses the win, but runs second “a lot.”  Don’t leave him out of your vertical wagers.

 

Race 8 Santa Anita (Post 5:43 Eastern)  BC Juvenile (8.5 furlongs) – Grade 1

Class:  Undertermined

Expected Pace: Syndergaard will go as fast as he can for as long as he can.

Consistency:  Three Rules has been “the boss” in South Florida, (5-5-0-0).

Bet PTC.com selections:

1st – #1 Klimt (6/1)

2nd – #10 Not This Time (7/2)

3rd – #9 Practical Joke (6/1)

4th – #5 Classic Empire (4/1)

KLIMT is not a “special horse,” but he’s pretty good, and in his last race he was very ride chasing a solo horse loose on the lead.  With Syndergaard providing the race some early heat it should make for a much fairer test.  Not This Time could be a beast.  I just want to see him run up the score on the West coast before I get too excited.  Practical Joke appears to be the value horse again after not running as the favorite in the Hopeful or the Champagne.  If I had to pick a horse to hit the board in this race, I would go with this guy.  Classic Empire hasn’t done much wrong in here, and his races have been fast.  A horse that deserves respect.  I am also going to use numbers 2 and 4 in my horizontal wagers.

 

Race 9 Santa Anita (Post 6:22 Eastern)  BC Turf (12 furlongs) – Grade 1

Class:  Found has earned $7.252 Million in 20 starts.  Flintshire has earned $8.893 Million in 23 starts

Expected Pace: Ectot will set a :49 and change pace.  Ashleyluvssugar will prompt the pace.  Money Multiplier, Twilight Eclipse and Flintshire will be close enough.

Consistency:  Flinstshire does quite well on firm American turf courses (3-3-0-0).

Bet PTC.com selections:

1st – #4 Flintshire (5/2)

2nd – #10 Found (3/1)

3rd – #9 Highland Reel (3/1)

4th – #5 Da Big Hoss (20/1)

FLINTSHIRE may have taken a step back last time, but that was on a really wet Belmont turf course that his PPs indicate he doesn’t act on.  He wants firm turf, and there is no rain expected in Southern California for the next week.  Roll on, Flintshire, roll on…Found usually runs second, so it was kind of a shock that she won the Arc.  The Arc is usually run 3 or 4 weeks before the Breeders’ Cup, so the Arc winner does not get a lot of time to rest or recover.  That may explain why the winner of the Arc has never won a Breeders’ Cup race.  I do not expect Found to reverse that trend.  Highland Reel is super honest and horses that gets in the top 5 in the Arc have won the Breeders’ Cup turf.  So if you like him on top that’s fine.  One thing about Highland Reel though – he REALLLLY gets sweaty in the neck area before a race.  I guess he just gets nervous.  Da Big Hoss is a tough customer, and his two mile win at Belmont would be fast enough to win this event.  His two most recent races were slower, but still OK on final time.

 

Race 10 Santa Anita (Post 7:01 Eastern)  BC F&M Sprint (7 furlongs) – Grade 1

Class:  Carina Mia has won $1.054 million in 9 starts

Expected Pace: Gloryzapper will probably try to lead with Paulassilverlining and Carina Mia being very handy.

Consistency:  Carina Mia is (9-4-3-1) for her career.

Bet PTC.com selections:

1st – #4 Carina Mia (7/2)

2nd – #6 By the Moon (8/1)

3rd – #2 Haveyougoneaway (3/1)

4th – #11 Irish Jasper (10/1)

In many ways, this is a replay of the Ballerina at Saratoga in August, with CARINA MIA, By the Moon and Haveyougoneaway (and Paulassilverlining) all coming out of that Grade 1 sprint.  I thought Carina Mia got a very aggressive ride from Joel Rosario, which definitely cost her some punch late.  Now we see Julien Leparoux is riding Carina Mia – so either there was a conflict (Rosario is riding Wavell Avenue) or trainer Bill Mott didn’t appreciate Rosario’s ride.  In the Ballerina By the Moon was in post 2, and Haveyougoneaway was in post 10.  Now Haveyougoneaway is post 2 and By the Moon is in post 6.  With the post switch I am going to lean SLIGHTLY that By the Moon is the value play.  Irish Jasper has really come to life in her last two races and is definitely a win threat from well off the pace.

 

Race 11 Santa Anita (Post 7:40 Eastern)  BC Mile (8 furlongs, turf) – Grade 1

Class:  Tepin has won $4.093 million in 22 starts

Expected Pace: Photo Call will probably try to lead and set a faster than average pace.

Consistency:  Limato is (11-6-4-0) on grass and (13-8-4-0) overall.  Ironicus is (13-6-6-1) in his grass starts.

Bet PTC.com selections:

1st – #9 Ironicus (8/1)

2nd – #8 Tepin (3/1)

3rd – #2 Alice Springs (4/1)

4th – #10 Limato (7/2)

IRONICUS has been pointed to this race for months now and I think it’s going to be “score time” on Saturday.  Don’t expect 8/1 – because Shug’s operation is so consistent over time the savvy players know when he’s “live.”  Expect 5/1.  Just take that price.  If 5/1 isn’t good enough then use this horse in all the exotics you can afford.  Tepin is a great champion, but in her Thoro-graph race record it’s apparent that she runs much better at Keeneland than anywhere else.  If she doesn’t bring her “A+” game someone is going to beat her to the line.  Alice Springs and Limato are well-connected European runners with great race records.  Alice Springs has a great late kick, and while she isn’t a standout on Thoro-graph, I would consider using her under in exactas and trifectas.  Limato is obviously a great turf sprinter, but he’s never won at a mile and he’s also slower than Ironicus and Tepin on the Thoro-graph numbers.  Kind of a hard horse to take on top at only a 7/2 ML quote.  Because he is so consistent, he is another horse to use under in the exotics, if so desired.

 

Race 12 Santa Anita (Post 8:35 Eastern)  BC Classic (10 furlongs) – Grade 1

Class:  California Chrome has won $13.433 million in 24 starts

Expected Pace: Melatonin or California Chrome will lead

Consistency:  California Chrome is (6 for 6, $7.1 million) in 2016

Bet PTC.com selections:

1st – #4 California Chrome (1/1)

2nd – #10 Arrogate (5/2)

3rd – #9 Hoppertunity (15/1)

4th – #2 Frosted (5/1)

CALIFORNIA CHROME looks great, is working well, and has a very good SA record (8-5-1-1).  I think the only query is do they go right for the lead, and risk getting caught in a speed duel with Melatonin, or do they sit back a bit and find cover behind horses?  It’s a little bit of a head scratcher.  Arrogate seems like the logical upsetter, and on both BRIS and Thoro-graph they have Arrogate’s Travers as the fastest race in the entire field.  He’s also coming in on a 70 day layoff, but from the video workouts I have watched, Arrogate is in stellar form.  Hoppertunity is no great shakes, but most of the horses in this race are early-speed oriented, and he loves to close.  He may get a big piece of the purse if Arrogate doesn’t fire.  Frosted is a horse that probably would have won the Dirt Mile, but his connections put Tamarkuz into that slot, and are aiming for the big BC Classic pot.  Can he do it?  He’s never proven it against top company, and California Chrome and Arrogate are the epitome of “top company.”

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