One of the latest trends is using the AI to generate figures and give you winners. You should always be up on new ways to pick winners and take advantage of various handicappers tools out there. But you do not want to ever forget to watch the replays of past races.

Why did I say “Sometimes numbers do lie?” Well that is easy, a horse that is checking behind other horses , a slow start or a horse running five wide is traveling further distance. All three would have had the horse with higher figures than horse in the same race having a clean rail run trip.

You need to watch the replays to tell you the entire story. I find it amazing the prices you get on horses after a bad trip that caused them to not have a great finish. Clearly more people just use the numbers, don’t be a sheep, be different and take advantage of the replays. BETPTC has a great replay library of all the races, take advantage of what they are giving you for free.

What to look for in the replays:
-Start of the race, clean, slow, checked
-Wide, rail, far more important on the turns, unless bias
-Possible trouble at some point in race, started to make move and checked
-Perfect trip, perfect set up

I make notes good or bad. I also make notes on horses to bet next time or bet against next out. A dream trip will have much higher numbers than a troubled trip. The higher the numbers the lower the price of the horse.

Also a follow up to numbers sometimes lie, don’t believe everything you read. The footnotes in the PPs, may say slow start, better watch to see how slow it was. We can save that discussion for another time.

So to keep it simple, watch the replays and determine for yourself if the numbers lie. Trust me watching the replay will find you that hidden gem.

by Stretch

I think we all have run out of time in ‘capping races from time to time. Well, it is even easier to do that for the Breeders Cup, so why not start now!

What should do now with the Cup not until November 5-6?

Step 1: Download the Breeders’ Cup app.
– This app keeps you right up to date on info, which is good to have for the entire week

Step 2: Print off the list of contenders for all 14 races
-Easy to find: DRF, Horse Racing Nation and on the Breeders’ Cup App.

Step 3: Focus on the bigger fields first and the ones with the unknowns such as the European invaders.
-Turf, Turf Filly & Mare, Juvenile, and Juvenile Turf

What to do with those races? Watch replays, replays and more replays. The European horses are a little harder to find, so it takes time to dig up some of those races and to watch them.

Final Step: Watch those replays and make notes on the horses. You are not handicapping the race just yet; only getting to know the horses. What is their running style? Did they have trouble in the race? Check for any track bias on the day.

My suggestion is avoid picking a winner in any of the races. You can’t pick a winner yet because you don’t know exactly who will be in the race or how the race shape will set up.

Get a bunch of this research done early, so you will be ahead of all the other handi-crammers the night or day before.

Lots of money out there to be won over Breeders’ Cup weekend!  Don’t be late to the party or you will miss out on a big score.

A new meet starting up adds an extra dimension to handicapping these races, do some research and you will be ahead of the curve. So what are a few things to look for in the first week of racing, you ask?

Let’s begin with the trainers:
-Understand the difference between the local trainers and the trainers that ship from track to track
-The locals using have had longer layoffs and may need a start or two
-The trainers that move from track to track usually have a plan and that is “Win Early”
-Find those hot trainers quickly because after a week or so, everyone else jumps on board
-Here is where you take advantage of the public that doesn’t follow or do the research early. After about a month
the trainer stats will have the shipped in trainers with a great record and the locals not so good. But remember, the
win early trainers that was their goal, locals in for the long haul.

Understanding where the horses are coming from
-It takes a bit of experience but ask around or even reply to this blog and I will help you out. What I mean by this, the level of
competition varies greatly from the A, B and C tracks in North America. Get to know them.
-For example a horse coming from Santa Anita and now racing at Fonner park, will not look good on form. But what to
look for is, did the horse show speed. The speed horses from top track are far better bets than the plotters that just
ran at the back. Big difference from a horse showing lots of early speed and finishing last than a plotter that passes one or
two late.

Last tip, know the horse
-Is the horse ready to run today, many works coming in
-Is the horse at the right distance or a prep for a race coming in.
-Right surface, now on dirt, did run on turf or poly

After you have done your above  research, made your notes, you still need to look at the race shape on the other horses in the race. A little more work, but it certainly can pay off in the end.

Good racing

Was 2020 a successful year in your handicapping? If so, great, why not make it even better. If not, why? Do you know where you struggled the most? Was it playing to many sequence bets or betting under valued horses?

Every horse player needs to know their strengths and weaknesses. If you don’t, you will not know when to take that big shot on a horse or bet.

I find the biggest mistake by horse players is playing the same way year after year and not trying to improve their handicapping.

What have you done lately to improve?

Here are a few things to do more of:
-watch more replays
-be better prepared before the races start
-look at some of the new/old handicapping software out there, formulator to name one
-be more adaptable to the race
-avoid having the same type of bet for most races

So many horse players think they are great handicappers, why is that? If everyone was so good, more favorites would win and the prices would be lower. Currently not the case.

Ask yourself, what would you rate yourself as a horse player overall from a scale of 1 to 10 ?

There has been a study in regards to people rating themselves in the field they are in. The study has found that the best of the best in their field rates them selves around a 4.5 out of 10. Why is that, it is because they never stop learning. If you rated yourself at 7 or higher, you may want to think again. One of my favorite lines is “What you don’t know, you don’t know?” Think about that line and understand why that is so powerful.

Be better in 2021

Happy New Year everyone !!

Everyone likes to receive a gift this time of year, well each day there are races that continue to give to the sharp horse player.

What type of races that have the Christmas spirt, the races with “Vulnerable Favorites.”

What is a vulnerable favorite, it’s a horse that has to many reasons for it not to win.

Here are just a few that I like to use to bet against a favorite:
-A very low percentage trainer and or jockey
-Race shape does not set up for them, example speed horse with three other speed horses
-a layoff with no real workout and a drop
-beaten favorite two of the last three times
-a horse that has a more seconds and thirds, with limited wins

We know that favorites win around 33%, so you cannot always bet against a favorite, some offer great value, others like above reasons do not.

Enjoy the holiday season and find that value out there

My first two blogs over the last two weeks have talked about preparing for betting, now today’s is all about taking advantage of the prep.

You have watched the replays, you have scanned/capped the race card. At this point you should have a good feeling of the races to take a shot at or pass. One other thing to check would be are there any carry overs and what type of carry overs. Understand the difference between a good carry over and a jackpot carry over. A good carry over is it will be paid out that day.

My recommendation if it is a good carry over, start there with those races. Dead money always is in favor of the horse player, don’t miss out, but make sure you like the sequence.

Next step start with your strongest races you like, maybe a replay horse or a race with very few unknows and then build around that race. If I am playing sequence bets I need to have at least half of the races I like quite a bit. This doesn’t mean I have keys in every race, but does mean I have the max horses in the race I need.

If the bookends of your strongest race are terrible, it might just be an individual race bet. If the carry over is big enough in the sequence, I will take a small chance and play the sequence.

What makes a strong play?
Here are a few key points I look for:
-Understanding race shape
-A good replay that others might have missed
-Vulnerable favorite that you think will get beat, but the public doesn’t and over bets it
-Very few unknowns in the race, firsters for example

Always try and find that value, whether it is there because of a carry over, vulnerable favorite or your horse is paying higher than you thought.

Good luck and good racing.

Next Post Breeders Cup Week

Now that you have watched your replays and getting some opinions on horses to pay special attention to either bet or bet against on your own, begin the next step. Start looking at other resources to get the extra info you may need.

Part II: More preparing for the Cup

Good and bad information. Step one understand the source you are getting this info from. Some information that is given out is simply an opinion. For example “Horse A should really take to the Santa Anita surface.” Why does this person think that, is it breeding, is it because he saw a race at another track with a similar surface or did the trainer mention to him that the training sessions have been good. I would only take that above statement if it was the last source.

At this point I wouldn’t listen to anyone’s selections. We know all the horses entered but what happens if one of them isn’t entered or scratched. Another speed horse doesn’t enter or gets scratched and now there is no pace to run it. Completely changes the race shape.

What I would look at is how the horses got to where they are at now. Some horses the big race was simply to win the previous race and get in, horse would be fully cranked. McKinzie, I am not sure if the horse was or was not fully cranked for his last race, but McKinzie didn’t need to win and get in.

There are many proven trends that show which horses do well at the Breeders Cup by going in certain races and which ones struggle. Get to know those trends. There is lots of information you can find about that. I follow the trends like this, a favourite should have strong trends before I would consider them. A longshot with a good return I won’t disregard the horse as much, the horse is a longshot for a reason, there are always a few holes in them somewhere.

Only one week to go, don’t get left behind in the research.