Category Archives: Stretch

It’s All About Value

by STRETCH

Being that BetPTC is putting on a contest this weekend and its all about ROI (return on Investment) I thought it was a perfect time to explain VALUE.

We all know it is tough to make money at the races, its is even tougher if you are not getting value on your bets. For example if you are betting a horse at 2-1 but should be at 5-1 this is a terrible bet, sure the horse might win but you are not getting proper ROI.

When do you get value, well that is easy, it is when the racing public is betting the race incorrectly. Let’s say they have a horse at 3-5 and you see multiple reasons why this horse can or will lose. Right away you know there will be overlays in the field. Here is the reverse from my above example, a horse is paying 5-1 but you feel the odds should be 2-1. This is your chance to get your value. At 5-1 you do not have to be right as often. Do not forget to watch your exotic pools either, many times horses may get over bet in the win pool, but forgotten about in the other pools. Maybe there was a large win bet that lowers your odds out of the value you are looking for, but not in the exotics.

Races to avoid happens when the race is bet the right way by the public, rarely happens but it does from time to time. Usually 5-1 horses are at 5-1, 20-1 are at 20-1.  A favourite that looks unbeatable, we all know favourites do win around 33% of the time. Some favourite get over bet and win, so you are stuck, you don’t want to bet on them and know you can’t beat them. Wait 20 minutes and bet another race.

Understanding the differences in a longshot:  A 20-1 ml horse will have lots of negatives, but a horse at 8-1 but goes off at 20 – 1 has far less.  The 8 – 1 gets over looked and becomes a great bet at 20 -1. This is a great note to understand when you are in contests, many people look for 20 – 1 shots, but they use the morning lines. Wrong, watch the board and look for value. or horses at 20 -1 instead.

By the way, the weekend contest is a no brainer to sign up for. It’s free bonus cash, plus it will help you understand how to bet a little better to maximum your chance to make money at the races.

Find that value and make some money this weekend.

How are you going to be better in 2017 at the races?

By STRETCH

What are you going to do in 2017 to give yourself a better chance to be successful at the races?

I find so many race players doing the same thing year after year and think this is going to be their year? Why do they think that? Don’t they know the definition of insanity? Well if you don’t, “it’s doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result.”

Here are a few tips to help you make a slight change to be even better at the races:

-Getting more information to play the races is getting easier by the day, take advantage of it. Getting your forms or pps. can be sent directly to your email box, you do not even have to leave your house. There is no reason why you can’t take a look at the form online the night before, instead of waiting until the day of the races because you were to lazy to head out to get the form. All the hidden trainer stats are no longer hidden for you, they are easy to find as well

-It is so easy now to watch replays. They are everywhere and usually free. If you are not using a replay feature, start. BETPTC makes it so easy to search for a race or a date and watch it, then head right back to the live races.

-Finding the carryovers, again everyone online, and if you have read my blogs in the past, you know I am on them everyone day. Dead money always makes that bet a better bet.

-If you have been playing the races like I have for over 25 years now, you have experience on your side. The newer players may use their tech savvy side, but the experience and using the new handicapping tools can take you to another level, make it happen. Experience allows you to understand the information you take it that much quicker, take advantage of this.

-Never think you know it all, I know to many horse players that think they do and have stopped trying to learn and improve. Do not be one of these in 2017

Happy New Year and lets make 2017 an even better year at the races

 

 

March 17th at Santa Anita

by STRETCH

A perfect day for a huge carry over at Santa Anita on Thursday. The first scan over the card it looks like it is very playable. We all know the race cards during the week are quite different than the weekend cards and with the carry over today it makes it worth a shot at the expected $2,000,000 pick six pool.

There is a good chance the sequence goes very form full, but if a few of the obvious horses struggle it will take a huge ticket to hit it. So unless you have a big group you probably have to play it similar to how I am playing it today.

Race#3 The problem in this race the two most likely winners could duel early and knock each other out. Watch for possible early money on the 6. If the 1 rates then it because quite straight forward and you only need 1,3.

Race#4 Both 7,8 look like horses with a good chance to win. Both have reasons to improve and both fit the angle needed to win this race. The 9 fits similar to the 7,8 but I do not think the race shape works for hear. Possible savers on the 6,9

Race#5 My most likely winner in the sequence is the 2. After that I need many others. The 6,7 will be bet but there are two many negatives to use.

Race#6 The 6 will be a low price horse but figures to stalk and take over late. The 1,3 have a shot to upset if the 6 falters

Race#7 Race goes through the 3 if can get any chance to relax. The others to use would be 1,6 by coming off the pace

Race#8 Is the toughest race to figure out, so all I got is the 2,3,6 as must use and the 1,9,10 would be second level of selections to use if you key the middle legs.

Finding the LONGSHOT

by STRETCH

Everyone loves to pick a longshot or tout a longshot, but when is the time to actually bet on the longshot? I would base a longshot on the price of the horse that it will pay when he wins. A longshot is not a horse with a morning line of 10-1 that goes off at 2-1. Clearly the line maker made an error and I wouldn’t consider that a longshot.

Finding a longshot can start with the expected favorite in the race. We know the favorites win around 30% of the time and sometimes you look at the favorite and need to realize the is very little chance he gets beat.

Here are times to try and beat the horse:
-horse is trying something different, stretching out, going on turf, off track
-off a month or longer and no activity, workout.
-dropping in class off a good effort, example a second place finish in a higher maiden race.
-race shape is against him, example a need the lead horse with lots of other speed in the race.

Another time to use a horse as a longshot is when a horse in question has the potential to improve:
-only one start.
-troubled trip that affected his outcome.
-trying something new that there is a sign that it could be successful, trainer angles
-race shape sets up for him, lone speed or closer with lots of other speed in the race.

You may ask yourself, how can in both the above situations have the same situation and one you bet the horse and the other you do not bet the horse. It is simple; it is all about value compared to the horses’ chance to win. A horse that is at 20-1 but has enough angles to take a shot, then you only need to hit these types a few times to be profitable. A horse at 1-1 but only has about a 30% chance to win, then in the long run you lose betting these types.

Understanding when a longshot can win and when the favorite is going to win really helps you out as to when to take a shot. Taking a longshot in every race and saying you never bet favorites instantly reduces your chance to make money at the races. Accept favorites do win, but when you find a chance to beat one, be ready and make it count.

$300 signup offer at BetPTC.com

Los Alamitos quick tips to play

by STRETCH

I am certainly looking forward to having the Los Al meet back up at BetPTC. Why you ask, because there can be money made there.

Here are a few reasons and why you can make a little money there.
-Late night and a smaller track so you get novice players betting blind, a great example is its the main track on
in every casino in Vegas at their race books
-There over bet favourites that get beat and the second and third choices come in, the exactas are huge over lays.
-Even the with the small field the trifectas pay more than they should

Thoroughbred racing during the quarter horse meet angle
-Avoid horses coming from the big tracks that have no early speed, they get bet down and lose more than they win
-The early pace horses are a good bet, when they have had a few works before

Quarter horse racing
-Los Al. is the only track I know of that shows you the final 1/8 times, huge advantage
-Watch the replays and make note of the final 1/8
Guide for final 1/8
Horses over 10.00 are never ever a bet, if all have that time, pass the race
Horses in the 9.90 – 9.95 can only win maiden races
Stake horses can run as low as a 9.43, but if find horses in the 9.50 or even in low 9.60, play them

Good luck and enjoy the speed

Horse Racing Contests are Not all the same

by STRETCH

The new era of horse racing seems to be “contests” these days. There are more and more contests and tournament sites out there  to play now. The quicker you realize that playing a contest is a lot like playing the races. What I mean by this is you can’t bet a race or a sequence of races the same every time.

Most people think it is all about longshots.  Many contest players only take a 10-1 horse or higher. I have a big problem with this in all contests. Why you ask? Well it’s simple, how many longshots can you pick in a day and how many longshots happen in a race card.

The quicker you learn how to play the contests differently the more of an advantage you will have on the others.

Here are a few factors to consider when playing contest:
Mandatory races or your choice of races
–Big difference if everyone is playing the same races, you have to adjust specifically to the races that you MUST play
Number of races in contest
–Is the contest a sprint or a marathon with lots of races to play, so a leader hits a longshot there is no panic in a marathon contest
Number of contestants in the contest
–The more in the contest the more you can assume the total bankroll will be higher to win it.
Format, win only, win place
–more longshots will finish second and pay more than a favorite might to win. Also a win only if there is a strong favorite then it is much tougher to select a longshot to beat him
ROI (similar to the Cash is King at betptc)
–Similar to betting real cash, adjusting to strength of selection. Simply taking longshots and only hitting one or two in 10 or 12 picks lowers your ROI
-Always look for overlays in every contest, an underlay is never a play in every contest.

I am not going to tell you how to play contests because I think there are many ways to do well in contests. But I am going to say playing the same way in every contest will not allow you to be successful in contests. The quicker you learn how to play the contests differently the more of an advantage you will have on the others.

Cash is King contest

RETURNS OCT. 3RD AT BETPTC.COM

Do you have a plan?

by STRETCH

Are you someone that knows you are playing the races tomorrow and shows up ten minutes before the races, grabs a form and starts looking at race one? “OR” Are you a horse player that knows you are playing the races tomorrow and has gotten the form the night before?

If you are the first one, STOP IT if you ever want to be consistent at the races. It takes time and work to have success at the races. Why do you think you can beat the races by just showing up? The guys that make money always have a plan.

If you are the second one, you have a chance. It is a matter of what you do with your form the night before.

Here are few tips to help you with a plan for the races:
-Obviously grab the form early(10 minutes before isn’t early, a day is)
-Scan ALL the races on the day
-when scanning make quick notes on surface, distance, conditions of race (claimer, maiden)
-Now begin to cap the races, it doesn’t have to start with race one. I will start with races I like the conditions best, for example maiden races with not many first timers in the race. Why you ask? It is simple, there is more potential that I will spend more money on races I like and have stronger feelings for, as well will use these races as key races for sequence bets.
-Spend a little more time on race sequences that may have carry overs or guarantees
-After at least looking at all the races, make some notes to yourself in regards to what types of bets you may make, or notes to watch for during the day
-Capping the night before doesn’t mean you need to set your bets or even select the horses you are betting to win.

After the above is complete, call it a night and be ready for the next day.

Mistakes that get made with no plan:
-not knowing the good races ahead
-not knowing where to save your money on your prime plays
-always being a step or two behind the ones that are prepared
-always in a panic trying to get out on the day in the last few races, just like many of the others
-running out of money for a prime play in the 8th.

Having a plan/outline sets you up for success, you may not win every time but you certainly increase your chances to.

 

Carryover guaranteed every Saturday at BetPTC

by STRETCH

Everyone loves playing tracks that have a carryover.  Well if you simply play the races and are entered in the “Cash is King Contest” you have one every Saturday. The best part is you get to chose where the carryover is.   “What do I mean,” you may ask?   It’s simple, you decide what track and what bets you want to play. If you win, you have a shot to add to your winnings. How good is that?

Going in the Cash is King contest rewards you for doing your home work, improving your betting and comparing you to other handicappers. You are in a win-win situation. Why would you not get involved?   The only reason that I can think of, if you don’t participate, is that you do not want to improve and you don’t care if you lose at the races.   And you don’t care about free cash.

I have already picked up some extra cash in the contest, and it wasn’t the first time.   Why can’t you?

Cash is King contest

Play every Saturday for $500 cash

Take advantage by having the largest choice of tracks racing now

by STRETCH

Right now we have the largest choice of tracks to choose from. Many race track players treat this time of year like they are going to an all you can eat buffet. The problem with many of us going to the “All you can eat Buffet” is that we put to much on our plate and attempt to eat it all. Well if we just took the very best of what there is to eat, we would enjoy it that much more. Use this analogy next time you grab the racing form and look at the 20 tracks being offered on the day.

How to choose a track:
-I would look towards meets that are just starting up, especially in areas that hasn’t had any racing. Example Canterbury Park in Minn.  There will be many horse players that only play the live meet and do not really know the levels of the invaders coming in.
-Pick a track that you have had success in the past, common sense, avoid a track you always lose at. Why would you expect to win after always losing.
-Pick a track that has the right amount of race days for you. If you have time to play 3 or 4 days then avoid the tracks that might race 5 or more days.
-Pick a track or tracks that are perfect for you time frame, if a night person, pick Mountaineer or Delta Downs.
-Depending on your experience and success matters on how many tracks you can handle at once.

Why do I feel there is so much of an advantage right now? Just like I mentioned when there is so much choice people will dip into many tracks, but only dip into it a little and not be an expect at any one track. They will be a novice at all the tracks. Take advantage of the novice players at so many tracks. Warmer weather gets more people out to the tracks and they only bet a few times a year.  Yes the bank is open, take advantage of it.

Enjoy the racing feast