Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 3/27/2021
by: Ed Meyer
Race #10 – The G-2 Pan American – 1 1/2 on the turf – 4:09 pm
BetPTC.com Selections / #3 – Sadler’s Joy / #2 – Temple / #7 – Moon Over Miami
#3 Sadler’s Joy is a son of Kitten’s Joy for Thom Albertrani and Jose Ortiz in the saddle. He’s been off for two months and the barn scores at a 12% win clip with fresh legs. He is 4 for 7 ITM at GP and closed well last out coming up a bit short down the lane. Ortiz wins 23% with his turf closers. #2 Temple makes his 3rd off the layoff move for Mike Maker with Irad Ortiz in the irons. This son of Temple City should be mid pack and Irad wins 26% with stalking type closers. He loves GP going 10 for 11 ITM over the course. #7 Moon Over Miami hails from the Bill Mott barn with Junior Alvarado in the saddle. 2nd time off the layoff, and Mott wins 17% on this move. The rider is 19 for 34 ITM the past week.
Race #12 – The G-2 Gulfstream Oaks – 1 1/16 – 5:17 pm
BetPTC.com Selections / #3 – Crazy Beautiful / #6 – Millefeuille / #1 – Con Lima
#3 Crazy Beautiful is a daughter of Liam’s Map for Ken McPeek and Jose Ortiz. This is her 2nd off the layoff and eligible to improve after being reluctant to load last out. She was 4 wide moving late last out and should be mid pack in high gear turning for home. #6 Millefeuille is a daughter of Curlin making her 2nd start of the year. Add in her bullet work at Payson and trainer Bill Mott looks to keep her moving forward in 2021. She was shuffled back at the start last out and looks prime to get back on track. #1 Con Lima is a speedy filly for Todd Pletcher who is 3 for 3 ITM over the course. She makes the turf to dirt switch and wins 25% on the surface move. Irad Ortiz in the driver’s seat and should break quickly.
Race #14 – The G-1 Florida Derby – 1 1/8 – 6:40 pm
BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Known Agenda / #7 – Greatest Honor / #10 – Spielberg
#5 Known Agenda is a son of Curlin for Todd Pletcher with Irad Ortiz in the irons. He won impressively by 11 lengths last out as prep and looks to make his 3rd off the layoff move where the barn wins 23%. The distance should fit his style and look for a solid late run. #7 Greatest Honor is a son of Tapit 6 for 6 ITM who is a perfect 3 for 3 at GP. Known Agenda beat him going 9f, and should make a sharp move on the far turn for Shug McCaughey and Jose Ortiz. He is 6 for 6 ITM at the track seeking his 4th straight win. #10 Spielberg is a late runner for Bob Baffert with Javier Castellano in the saddle. He ships in from OP and Baffert wins 30% with his shippers. He has sharp works and switches riders to Castellano.
Race #11 – The G-3 Jeff Ruby Steaks – 1 1/8 – 6:25 pm
BetPTC.com Selections / #2 – Hush of a Storm / #7 – Tarantino / #10 – Gretzky the Great
#2 Hush of a Storm hails from the William Morey barn with Santiago Gonzalez in the irons. 2nd off a layoff for this late runner and a perfect 3 for 3 at TP. The winner of the John Battaglia has won twice without Lasix and his dam Hush Now has 1 starter and 1 winner to her credit. #7 Tarantino is a stalker from the Rudy Brisset barn with Florent Geroux in the saddle. 3rd off the layoff and should show good early foot from the break. He ships in from GP from the G2 Fountain of Youth and should be forwardly placed when they spring the latch. #10 Gretzky the Great makes his 2nd off the layoff as the beaten chalk in the Battaglia. Mark Casse runners win 24% making the comeback off the beaten chalk angle. Look for speed from the Casse runner with Chris Landeros in the saddle.