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BetPTC.com – Horses to Watch – 12/4/17
BetPTC.com – Ed Meyer – Graded Stakes Preview
Race #8 – The G2 Demoisel – 1 1/8 – 3:12 pm ET
BetPTC.com Selections = #4 -Held Accountable / #1 – Daisy / #6 – Maurer Power
#4 = Held Accountable = Luis Saez for Phil Serpe who is winning 23% on the meet. Two-yr-filly by Exchange Rate and she is a perfect 3/3 ITM and finished 2nd her last effort. Her dam New Exchange is 8 starters / 6 winners / 1 stakes winner and wins 20% with her babies. The Serpe barn is 48% ITM with 2-yr-olds and this gal should be high balling late in the lane. #1 – Daisy = This two-yr-old daughter of Blame is a smoking perfect 2/2. Her last effort in the G3 Tempted was very impressive. She enters in from the John Servis barn and her dam Lovely Stray has 2 starts / 1win / 1 stakes win. #6 – Maurer Power = 2-yr-old filly by Violence from the John Servis barn. She is 2/2 and rolling between runners late last out. She received first time Lasix and kicked clear impressively. Irad Ortiz in the saddle and she has a strong rider who win anywhere he rides.
Race#9 – G2 Remsen – 1 1/8 – 3:45 PM
BetPTC.com Selections = #5 – Catholic Boy / #8 – Vouch / #3- Avery Island
#5= Catholic Boy = Manny Franco in the irons in a race that is chock-full of stone closers. This son of More Than Ready is late mid-pack closer and is taking a huge drop down the class ladder. He makes the switch from turf/dirt and was flying late in the lane in the BC Juvenile Turf. He should come in fit and leged up and is his last race any effort he could win at a very solid price. #8 – Vouch = Speedster from the Arnaud Delacour barn and this son of Yes It’s True should take advantage of a quick start being sent by Joel Rosario. Catch him if you can! – #3 – Avery Island = Speedy son of Street Sense and he’ll be hard to hold when the gate breaks open. He is 2/3 ITM for the Kiaran McLaughlin barn. He was looking like good thing winning by 4 3/4. He’ll show the way under Joe Bravo who wins 21% with early style runners.
Race#10 – The G1 Cigar – 1 mile on the main – 4:16 PM ET
BetPTC.com Selections = #6- Sharp Azteca / #1 – Mind Your Biscuits /#4 = Tom’s Ready
#6 – Sharp Azteca = Javier Castellano for Jorge Navarro. 3rd start off the layoff exiting the G1 BC Dirt Mile. His works have been good in South Florida and this son of Freud is 7/8 ITM going the distance.He looks very tough today. #1 Mind Your Biscuits = Irad Ortiz has the call and comes in off a 7w close in the BC Sprint. 2nd of the shelf yields a 23% win clip for the Chad Summers barn. Could be a big player if the early fractions heat up. #4 – Tom’s Ready = Mike Smith in the irons for Dallas Stewart. This son of More Than Ready is a long-launch closer but has never been over this the “Big A.” He’s had a good 2017 going 5/6 ITM. Smith making the trip is a promising sign.
BetPTC.com / Graded Stakes Preview / Ed Meyer
Race #8 – The G-3 Ohio Derby – 1 1/8 main – 5:30 pm EST
#8 -Girvin (2-1) / #2 – Untrapped (9-2) / #5 – Sorry Erik (6-1) / #8 -Game Over (12-1)
Girvin looked like a major player heading into the Derby. He was knocked around quite a bit and been away from the races for 49 days. The bullet work signals all systems go, and with Mike Smith in irons that seals the deal for me. Untrapped has the same story as Girvin. He has a solid work tab, but no exclamation to show he is ready for top billing. He’s an honest runner but may be second best with his top effort. Sorry Erik has been racing on the “left coast” and this G-3 spot looks like a great way to begin a summer campaign. He should get a piece of the pie. Game Over makes a second start off the layoff and may not be the top dog in here. But that’s why they run the races and you can’t leave him off your exotic tickets.
Race #10 – The G-3 Chicago Handicap – 7f main – 5:21 pm EST
#3 – Kathballu (8-1) / #5 – Ivy Belle (30-1) / #8 – Finley’s luckycharm (4-5) / #9 – Sweetgrass (10-1)
Kathballu has been away from the races for 56 days and has three works over the track. This daughter of Bluegrass Cat is coming in fresh for Ken McPeek. 7 panels looks to fit and there is plenty of speed to stalk. Look for a top effort. Ivy Belle may look to be cut below at first glance, but has rolled off three-in-a-row since the end of 2016. The new year has her looking like a maturing runner and 2017 can be a brand new chapter. Finley’sluckycharm is the one to beat. This daughter of Twirling Candy is one fast filly and been ultra tough going short. She is a perfect 5/5 at Churchill, and you’re going to have to look to find the value you deserve. Sweetgrass is a daughter of Street Sense who is 3/4 ITM going 7 panels. She has the look of an honest runner who brings her best everytime. She is primed to get a minor award.
Race #4 – The G-3 Affirmed – 1 1/16 main- 5:30 pm EST
#2 – Battle of Midway (4-5) / #5 – Arms Runner (9-5) / #1 – B Squared (6-1)
Battle of Midway took a shot at the Derby but had no two-year-old season. This 3yr-old may be a maturing runner. The son of Smart Strike is 4/4 ITM over the course, and been away 49 days from the races. His works are a good sign and looks to be the major danger. Arms Runner is 2/2 on the turf going 6 1/2f and gets the acid test today. He comes from the barn of Peter Miller (27%) and may enjoy the added distance. B Squared is a nice Cal-bred and has shown versatlity. He was a beaten favorite last out and the barn comes back to win at a (27%) clip on this move. Speed on the lead can be dangerous, but he’ll need an A+ game to get the win.
Race #6 – The G-3 Precisionist – 1 1/16 main- 6:30 pm EST
#3 – Accelerate (5-2) / #4 – Collected (4-5) / #1 – Donworth (6-1)
Accelerate is a son of Lookin At Lucky and is 5/6 ITM at Santa Anita. He was away from the races for 49 days starting in February. His first back was an O.C. $75,000 prep and was a beaten chalk this day. Trainer John Sadler is bringing him along in fine fashion, and owns a bullet work 59.3 / 5f on 6/19/17. This may be the start of very good things to come. Collected is the one to beat. He comes from the Bob Baffert barn and cuts back to a 1 1/16 from 1 1/8. Take a look back at the G-3 Lexington Stakes and he relished the distance. Donworth has been away from the races for over a year. This son of Tiznow was a $550,000 Keeneland sales purchase and looks to make 2017 his year to reward his connections.
Turf Marathoners Go Eleven Furlongs in the Red Smith!!
Aqueduct Race 7 (post 3:17 Eastern) The Red Smith Stakes (Grade 3, turf). 3yo and Up.
Class: Wake Forest has run well in Grade 1 races in 2016 has earned nearly $765,000 in 17 starts.
Expected pace: Fast for an 11 furlong race. Many seem capable of leading in here.
Consistency: Bigger Picture has been around the money in his last 9 starts.
1st – #8 Wake Forest (8/5) 2nd – #9 Bigger Picture (6/1) 3rd – #7 Messi (5/1)
WAKE FOREST has been facing much better and I have to give him the edge dropping down to Grade 3 from Grade 1 for super trainer Chad Brown. Bigger Picture might not be the classiest horse in the field but his trainer excels in these turf marathons with former claimers and it feels like this horse is due for a slight breakthrough and a top three finish. Messi is a sort of a query, sometimes he runs close to the pace, sometimes he doesn’t. Sometimes he finishes well, sometimes he doesn’t. If you do like him, the price will be fair and maybe you can catch him on a “good day.”
Three year old Dirt Routers Go Nine Furlongs in the Discovery!!
Aqueduct Race 8 (post 3:47 Eastern) The Discovery Stakes (Grade 3). 3yo only.
Class: Governor Malibu has earned nearly $579,000 in 12 starts
Expected pace: Moderate for a 9 furlong race. Few horses seem capable of leading in here.
Consistency: Hot Seat (2-2-0-0) has been a world-beater at Parx. New York is a step up but he sees capable of running well.
1st – #6 Hot Seat (10/1) 2nd – #5 Governor Malibu (4/1) 3rd – #3 Gift Box (3/1)
HOT SEAT is a potential loose leader and gets the talents of hot jockey Antonio Gallardo. If you are not familiar with Gallardo, he has ridden primarily on the Tampa Bay-Presque Ilse-Monmouth circuit the last few years to great success, even leading the nation in wins. He moved to New York about 6 weeks ago and he’s currently winning at 25% at Aqueduct (32-8-4-3). Governor Malibu is kind of a tough luck horse, he seems to get in his own way late in races and usually there is one or two horses that are better. I like that he has kept racing since the Travers when he got squashed by Arrogate, earning a win and a second. If the track is wet give him some extra credit, he has a very nice wet track record (4-2-2-0). Gift Box has the most talent in this field, he’s knocked heads against several top horses and his best race probably wins here. He’s definitely a solid win contender.
Three year Olds go 8.5 Furlongs on the Turf in the Commonwealth Turf!
Churchill Race 10 (post 5:30 Eastern) The Commonwealth Turf Stakes (Grade 3). 3yo only.
Class: One Mean Man has earned nearly $419,000 in 16 starts. Sir Dudley Diggs earned a lot of money against Canadian-breds but only around $40,000 in open company.
Expected pace: Scholar Athlete will try to lead.
Consistency: Bondurant has never lost a two-turn grass race (3-3-0-0).
1st – #8 Bondurant (6/1) 2nd – #7 One Mean Man (3/1)
3rd – #3 Blackout (6/1) 4th – #4 Hay Dakota (20/1)
BONDURANT seems capable of more improvement, being 3rd of the layoff. His trainer is 20% wins 3rd off the layoff too. One Mean Man is usually around the finish and he has won four of his last five races. Major player. Blackout has won three of his last four races, including a BRIS speed figure from his most recent race that is strong enough to win this stakes. Blackout also gets top jock Florent Geroux for the Mark Casse team, which adds to the appeal. Hay Dakota is definitely on the improve and has always been in the money on turf (6-3-1-2). He is definitely one to consider as the price will be right. Notice he only lost to One Mean Man by a neck at Canterbury Park in late August going a two-turn mile.
Race 4 Santa Anita (Post 3:05 Eastern) BC Juvenile Fillies (8.5 furlongs) – Grade 1
Expected Pace: With Honors will send from post 2. American Gal (post 12) has sprint speed and will either make the lead or sit outside With Honors. Jamyson and Ginger showed a lot of pace on a wet track, which she won’t get in Southern California in the Fall. It’s a tough read to predict how she will do on fast dirt. Noted and Quoted will be handy.
Consistency: Yellow Agate is 2 for 2 wins, including a nice score at 32/1 in her debut.
Bet PTC.com selections:
1st – #12 American Gal (6/1)
2nd – #4 Yellow Agate (8/1)
3rd – #7 Jamyson and Ginger (9/2)
4th – #10 Noted and Quoted (9/2)
I think AMERICAN GAL is the best athlete in this group and unless both Jamyson and Ginger and With Honors go on a suicide mission on the front end the pace should be reasonable. Yellow Agate beat Jamyson and Ginger “on the square” on September 11th and I see no reason why she can’t do it again. Noted and Quoted LOVES Santa Anita but the reality the isn’t a very dynamic individual. She’ll be fortunate to hit the top three in this race.
Race 5 Santa Anita (Post 3:43 Eastern) BC Filly and Mare Turf (10 furlongs) – Grade 1
Class: Lady Eli with $1.8 Million in earnings
Expected Pace: Catch a Glimpse will try to go wire to wire
Consistency: Lady Eli is (8-7-1-0) in her career
Bet PTC.com selections:
1st – #1 Sea Calisi (8/1)
2nd – #8 Lady Eli (5/2)
3rd – #5 Al’s Gal (15/1)
4th – #6 Zipessa (20/1)
SEA CALISI and Lady Eli are the best two horses on Thoro-graph numbers. Cold exacta box. Al’s Gal and Zipessa are slower, but ULTRA-consistent. I promise you one of them will end up in the super.
Race 6 Santa Anita (Post 4:21 Eastern) BC Sprint (6 furlongs) – Grade 1
Class: Lord Nelson with $958,271 in earnings in 13 starts
Expected Pace: Masochistic and Delta Bluesman are going to set a sub :44 half mile split.
Consistency: A.P. Indian is 6 for 6 in 2016, and Lord Nelson is 4 for 4. Masochistic is 2 for 2
Bet PTC.com selections:
1st – #6 Lord Nelson (5/2)
2nd – #5 A.P. Indian (4/1)
3rd – #7 Masochistic (2/1)
4th – #8 Noholdingback Bear (15/1)
LORD NELSON is on a roll and he can pass horses. He also owns the top Thoro-graph number in the field. Choice. A.P. Indian is hot too, and if this race was at Saratoga he’s be the favorite. Unfortunately his TG numbers aren’t as good away from Upstate New York. Masochistic will go on the lead as far as he can. Usually “need the lead types” do not win that way in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Noholdingback Bear showed a new dimension while closing in a big stakes race at Parx. He will probably show similar tactics again, but these are much better animals to face this weekend.
Race 7 Santa Anita (Post 4:21 Eastern) BC Turf Sprint (about 6.5 furlongs) – Grade 1
Class: Celestine has earned $824,755 in 13 starts Obviously has earned $1.77 million in 28 starts.
Expected Pace: Pure Sensation, Obviously and Mongolian Saturday are going to set a sub :43 half mile split.
Consistency: Om is (10-4-3-2) in his career on the grass. Celestine is (11-6-2-2) on the grass.
Bet PTC.com selections:
1st – #14 Celestine (8/1)
2nd – #12 Om (12/1)
3rd – #10 Ambitious Brew (10/1)
4th – #9 A Lot (8/1)
Celestine is a good animal and she’s proven she can track a fast pace and finish strong. Om drew wide, which will also help him. Gary Stevens knows this is a good chance to get another Breeders’ Cup win. Ambitious Brew is 5 wins in 9 starts down the hill – that has to be worth something. Also he drew fairly wide, where he should be able to avoid trouble. A Lot is a hard trier that usually misses the win, but runs second “a lot.” Don’t leave him out of your vertical wagers.
Race 8 Santa Anita (Post 5:43 Eastern) BC Juvenile (8.5 furlongs) – Grade 1
Expected Pace: Syndergaard will go as fast as he can for as long as he can.
Consistency: Three Rules has been “the boss” in South Florida, (5-5-0-0).
Bet PTC.com selections:
1st – #1 Klimt (6/1)
2nd – #10 Not This Time (7/2)
3rd – #9 Practical Joke (6/1)
4th – #5 Classic Empire (4/1)
KLIMT is not a “special horse,” but he’s pretty good, and in his last race he was very ride chasing a solo horse loose on the lead. With Syndergaard providing the race some early heat it should make for a much fairer test. Not This Time could be a beast. I just want to see him run up the score on the West coast before I get too excited. Practical Joke appears to be the value horse again after not running as the favorite in the Hopeful or the Champagne. If I had to pick a horse to hit the board in this race, I would go with this guy. Classic Empire hasn’t done much wrong in here, and his races have been fast. A horse that deserves respect. I am also going to use numbers 2 and 4 in my horizontal wagers.
Race 9 Santa Anita (Post 6:22 Eastern) BC Turf (12 furlongs) – Grade 1
Class: Found has earned $7.252 Million in 20 starts. Flintshire has earned $8.893 Million in 23 starts
Expected Pace: Ectot will set a :49 and change pace. Ashleyluvssugar will prompt the pace. Money Multiplier, Twilight Eclipse and Flintshire will be close enough.
Consistency: Flinstshire does quite well on firm American turf courses (3-3-0-0).
Bet PTC.com selections:
1st – #4 Flintshire (5/2)
2nd – #10 Found (3/1)
3rd – #9 Highland Reel (3/1)
4th – #5 Da Big Hoss (20/1)
FLINTSHIRE may have taken a step back last time, but that was on a really wet Belmont turf course that his PPs indicate he doesn’t act on. He wants firm turf, and there is no rain expected in Southern California for the next week. Roll on, Flintshire, roll on…Found usually runs second, so it was kind of a shock that she won the Arc. The Arc is usually run 3 or 4 weeks before the Breeders’ Cup, so the Arc winner does not get a lot of time to rest or recover. That may explain why the winner of the Arc has never won a Breeders’ Cup race. I do not expect Found to reverse that trend. Highland Reel is super honest and horses that gets in the top 5 in the Arc have won the Breeders’ Cup turf. So if you like him on top that’s fine. One thing about Highland Reel though – he REALLLLY gets sweaty in the neck area before a race. I guess he just gets nervous. Da Big Hoss is a tough customer, and his two mile win at Belmont would be fast enough to win this event. His two most recent races were slower, but still OK on final time.
Race 10 Santa Anita (Post 7:01 Eastern) BC F&M Sprint (7 furlongs) – Grade 1
Class: Carina Mia has won $1.054 million in 9 starts
Expected Pace: Gloryzapper will probably try to lead with Paulassilverlining and Carina Mia being very handy.
Consistency: Carina Mia is (9-4-3-1) for her career.
Bet PTC.com selections:
1st – #4 Carina Mia (7/2)
2nd – #6 By the Moon (8/1)
3rd – #2 Haveyougoneaway (3/1)
4th – #11 Irish Jasper (10/1)
In many ways, this is a replay of the Ballerina at Saratoga in August, with CARINA MIA, By the Moon and Haveyougoneaway (and Paulassilverlining) all coming out of that Grade 1 sprint. I thought Carina Mia got a very aggressive ride from Joel Rosario, which definitely cost her some punch late. Now we see Julien Leparoux is riding Carina Mia – so either there was a conflict (Rosario is riding Wavell Avenue) or trainer Bill Mott didn’t appreciate Rosario’s ride. In the Ballerina By the Moon was in post 2, and Haveyougoneaway was in post 10. Now Haveyougoneaway is post 2 and By the Moon is in post 6. With the post switch I am going to lean SLIGHTLY that By the Moon is the value play. Irish Jasper has really come to life in her last two races and is definitely a win threat from well off the pace.
Race 11 Santa Anita (Post 7:40 Eastern) BC Mile (8 furlongs, turf) – Grade 1
Class: Tepin has won $4.093 million in 22 starts
Expected Pace: Photo Call will probably try to lead and set a faster than average pace.
Consistency: Limato is (11-6-4-0) on grass and (13-8-4-0) overall. Ironicus is (13-6-6-1) in his grass starts.
Bet PTC.com selections:
1st – #9 Ironicus (8/1)
2nd – #8 Tepin (3/1)
3rd – #2 Alice Springs (4/1)
4th – #10 Limato (7/2)
IRONICUS has been pointed to this race for months now and I think it’s going to be “score time” on Saturday. Don’t expect 8/1 – because Shug’s operation is so consistent over time the savvy players know when he’s “live.” Expect 5/1. Just take that price. If 5/1 isn’t good enough then use this horse in all the exotics you can afford. Tepin is a great champion, but in her Thoro-graph race record it’s apparent that she runs much better at Keeneland than anywhere else. If she doesn’t bring her “A+” game someone is going to beat her to the line. Alice Springs and Limato are well-connected European runners with great race records. Alice Springs has a great late kick, and while she isn’t a standout on Thoro-graph, I would consider using her under in exactas and trifectas. Limato is obviously a great turf sprinter, but he’s never won at a mile and he’s also slower than Ironicus and Tepin on the Thoro-graph numbers. Kind of a hard horse to take on top at only a 7/2 ML quote. Because he is so consistent, he is another horse to use under in the exotics, if so desired.
Race 12 Santa Anita (Post 8:35 Eastern) BC Classic (10 furlongs) – Grade 1
Class: California Chrome has won $13.433 million in 24 starts
Expected Pace: Melatonin or California Chrome will lead
Consistency: California Chrome is (6 for 6, $7.1 million) in 2016
Bet PTC.com selections:
1st – #4 California Chrome (1/1)
2nd – #10 Arrogate (5/2)
3rd – #9 Hoppertunity (15/1)
4th – #2 Frosted (5/1)
CALIFORNIA CHROME looks great, is working well, and has a very good SA record (8-5-1-1). I think the only query is do they go right for the lead, and risk getting caught in a speed duel with Melatonin, or do they sit back a bit and find cover behind horses? It’s a little bit of a head scratcher. Arrogate seems like the logical upsetter, and on both BRIS and Thoro-graph they have Arrogate’s Travers as the fastest race in the entire field. He’s also coming in on a 70 day layoff, but from the video workouts I have watched, Arrogate is in stellar form. Hoppertunity is no great shakes, but most of the horses in this race are early-speed oriented, and he loves to close. He may get a big piece of the purse if Arrogate doesn’t fire. Frosted is a horse that probably would have won the Dirt Mile, but his connections put Tamarkuz into that slot, and are aiming for the big BC Classic pot. Can he do it? He’s never proven it against top company, and California Chrome and Arrogate are the epitome of “top company.”
Belmont Day Recap – Ed Meyer
Ed Meyer provides his recap of the stakes-filled Belmont card from June 11, 2016.
The (G-1) Acorn Stakes – One mile on the dirt
There was a solid group of six who went to post and the big chalk was the incredible Cathryn Sophia. All of these gals glimmer in their own right, but here is one you’ll want to keep on your watch list for future racing.
Go Maggie Go – This daughter of Ghostzapper has done very little wrong and comes to the races from the Dale Romans bran. This was her worst finish in her brief career (4th) and I’m looking forward to her races down the road. She has two 1 1/8 races under her belt and looks to be finding herself with every race. She responded well to the rider’s commands and looks like this race is just a stepping stone for bigger things to come.
The (G-1) Ogden Phipps Stakes – 1 1/16 on the dirt
Seven fillies and mares took to the track led by Curalina who was the public favorite this day.
Sheer Drama – This daughter of Burning Roma doesn’t have to take her track with her. She is consistent and shows tactical ability at all distances. She lunged at the start this day and was wide before trying to uncork a bid. – This race is a “toss out” and handicapper’s beware. This young lady is going to blossom into a real monster with a little racing luck.
The (G-1) Just a Game Stakes – One mile on the turf
A field of thirteen fillies and mares assembled and with a field this size you may have to go back and watch the replay three or four more times to get the correct read. Here are a couple of gals who will should be on the radar screen for handicappers down the line.
Faufiler – Drayden Van Dyke was aboard for Graham Motion, and both rider and trainer are well versed on the greensward. This daughter of Galileo is a stone cold closer. As long as there’s a solid pace she’ll come rolling from the clouds. In time I think we’ll see her a few strides closer to the pace setters, and that will make double dangerous to pick off runners late in the lane. She mainly has travelled a flat mile, but her breeding suggests she may enjoy added ground. After shipping across the pond from France, she appears to be getting better with every start.
Recepta – She has a late punch that could knock down the champ at any oval. John Velasquez was in the irons this day, and she did very little wrong except come up a bit short nearing the wire. She’s well traveled and merits respect anywhere she’ll run. Her best efforts may range from 1 mile – 1 1/8 on the turf. – Things look very bright for the future.
The (G-1) Metropolitan Handicap – One mile on the dirt
Frosted – Just like a well-aged wine I think this runner will only improve with time. The time figures from every publication are off the charts and he dismissed the “Dubai-Jinx” after getting beat at Meydan and putting on one of the best shows of his career. His late summer-fall campaign will be one to behold if all goes well, and right about when the Breeders’ Cup frenzy is at a fever pitch this will be one of the runners we’ll all be talking about.
The (G-1) Manhattan Stakes – 1 1/4 on the inner turf
Nine runners went to post and the public made Flintshire from the Chad Brown barn the public choice at the windows.
Flintshire (GB) – This world traveler from the Chad Brown barn had the services of one of the best turf riders in the game with Javier Castellano. – Her passport is stamped in Hong Kong, France, Dubai, and the United States. He missed by a 1/4 length in the 2014 edition of the Breeders’ Cup Turf, and this son of Dansili looked like he has yet to find his best gear. – One thing is for certain, every time he takes to the track he will be one of the tough guys to contend with, and if this race is any indication I can’t wait until we see him back on the weeds.
The (G-1) Belmont Stakes – 1 1/2 – The Test of Champions
As the media missed an opportunity to see Nyquist return for some payback from his Preakness loss, and the rumors swirled around Kent Desormeaux for personal problems. The fans we’re treated to a full field of thirteen runners and in the end one incredible finish for the Triple Crown.
Destin – This son of Giant’s Causeway has the look of maturing colt at the right time. Add in some well deserved rest and a plan for the later part of the year and we’ll have one tough cookie going to post. – Take nothing away from the fast closing effort of the winner Creator who received a well timed ride from the ultra-talented Irad Ortiz Jr. – Looking ahead, I see a runner with tactical ability who will be feared as a front end presence or stalking just off the hot pace. He should probably find his best races in 1 1/16 – 1 1/8 events. His tactical style fits like a glove and this kind of ability plays well on any oval. By the time Breeders’ Cup is in full view, he’ll be one of the major players on everyone’s tickets.
Horses to Watch – Ed Meyer
All of the point value races are on the shelf, and the world of racing goes into a period of waiting. – Hard to believe as it seemed like yesterday we were talking about the Derby trail kicking off. – It won’t be long now as were just 18 days away from Kentucky Derby 142. The crowd dressed to the nines, a sweet heavenly concoction known as a mint julep, and the celebration of the Thoroughbred. – I don’t know if you’re starting to get “Derby Fever” yet, but mine is in full effect. – Sit back get comfy, and we’ll keep our eyes peeled for some runners who may offer up value next time to the races.
Race #7 – 4/13/16 – #1 – 1 1/16 on the turf
#1 – Cite = Jose Lezcano and Bill Mott teamed up to bring a very nice closer to the races. Lezcano saved ground the entire race, and when the real running began he rushed up to find a seem and the hole collapsed forcing him to check back and wait for a spot. – He was on hold for four or five strides, and made a solid bid with ease for minor awards. He looked like a big truck hauling coal uphill. Once you stop a big runner, it is almost impossible to get them back to full speed. – He’ll swing out of traffic next out, and wear down the leaders in the lane.
Race #5 – 4/14/16 – #12 – 1 1/16 on the turf
#12 = Pussy Willow = Irad Ortiz broke his mount quickly from the #12 post and established the lead. He kept his filly to task and tried to put the field to sleep slowing down the fractions from 24 to 49.1 to 1:14.4. – A perfect model on how to keep speed alive, but all of the hard work had her a bridesmaid this day getting run down in the final stages. – She’ll give them fits with a better post draw next out. Catch her if you can !
Race #9 – 4/16/16 – #1 – (G-3) Lexington Stakes 1 1/16
#1 – One More Round = Jose Lezcano had the call for A.C. Avila, and this speedy maiden made a pretty good showing. Lezcano tried to pull the shocker going gate to wire for a barn who knows how to bring a horse to the races, and loves to make a solid wager. They seldom venture outside of California, but when they do it is usually with good intent. – He’ll be a nice runner to follow, but I doubt you’ll get that (40-1) in a maiden affair as his odds showed in this stake race.
Race #4 – 4/17/16 – #7 – 6 1/2f on the dirt
#7 – Gorelli = Kendrick Carmouche in the saddle as he had his mount in full flight when riders got their whips caught up in a cross-fire tangle forcing Carmouche to lose his baton late in the lane. He was rolling nicely and was beaten a little over a length, and that may have been the little distraction to get him off task. – Maybe a cleaner trip has him getting his picture taken next out.
Race #6 – 4/17/16 – #4 – 1 1/16 on the turf
#4 – Tizzelle = Kendrick Carmouche in the irons, and his mount was bumped soundly at the start by a runner breaking inward. – The rider settled his mount, and saved ground the entire race to show good energy trying to run down the wire to wire winner. – Maybe a little less “gate break pinball” has him running into the winner’s circle next time out.