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Horse Racing Oaklawn Park Analysis – April 4th

Horse Racing Pick-4 Analysis –  April 4, 2020

by: Ed Meyer for “Racing’s Best Kept Secret” BetPTC.com

Oaklawn Park – Late Pick Four

Race #7 – Alw $61,000 – 6f – 5:03 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #6 – Dulce Ride / #3 – Maryanorginger / #9 – Cardamon

#6 Dulce Ride is a daughter of Candy Ride for the Brad Cox barn with Joe Talamo in the saddle. She makes her 2nd start off a layoff where the barn wins 29%, She cuts back in distance from a mile as a beaten favorite. Talamo wins 20% with his early runners and should be right on the pace. #3 Maryanorginger hails from the Jeremiah Englehart barn with David Cohen in the irons. She’s been off for 10 months and ships in from Belmont. Cohen wins 22% with sprinters and she has been working regular clips over the OP surface. Look for a big move around the far turn.

Race #8 – O.C. $80,000 – 1 1/16 miles dirt – 5:38 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Finnick the Fierce / #5 – Answer In / #3 – General Trev

#1 Finnick the Fierce is a son of Dialed In for trainer Rey Hernandez with Martin Garcia aboard. He ships in from FG exiting the G2 Risen Star and G3 Lecomte. He cuts back in distance and will come rolling late. #5 Answer In hails from the Brad Cox barn with Joe Talamo getting the nod. They have been winning 28% as a team and exits the G3 Southwest stakes. He’ll come calling late in the lane. Talamo wins 22% with late closers. #3 General Trev is a son of Constitution who won at first asking for Steve Asmussen and Ricardo Santanna in the driver’s seat. He’s a solid stalk and pounces sort who won his first effort over the track.

Race #9 – $100,000 Purple Martin – 6f – 6:09 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Kimmari / #8 – Frank’s Rockette / #4 – Edgeway

#1 Kimmari has the services of Mike Smith for trainer Wesley Ward. She has bullet works and been off 5 months since the BC Juvenile Turf. She won super impressive at KEE at first asking by 15 commanding lengths. She’ll break sharp and be a handful to catch. #8 Frank’s Rockette comes in for the Bill Mott barn with Martin Garcia aboard. She is 5 for 5 ITM lifetime and makes her second start of 2020. She’ll be forwardly faced and Garcia wins 19% with sprinters. #4 Edgeway goes to post for John Sadler and Tyler Baze in the irons. The barn wins 20% with nongraded stakes and she’ll come out winging looking for the lead.

Race #10 – Mdn Special Weight – 1 1/16 miles dirt – 6:38 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Wild Union / #7 – Copper King / #8 – Mo and Go

#5 Wild Union hails from the Brad Cox barn with Joe Talamo in the driver’s seat. They are winning 28% as a team with some sharp morning works. Talamo has been on fire going 5 for 7 ITM the past few weeks. #7 Copper King is a son of Medaglia d’ Oro for Steve Asmussen and Tyler Baze in the saddle. He was a beaten favorite last out and gets a new rider with Baze in the saddle. The barn scores 25% off the beaten favorite last out angle. #8 Mo and Go Is a son of Uncle Mo for trainer Jeremiah Englehart and David Cohen. This is 2nd off the layoff and the barn scores at a 24% clip on this move. I’m looking for a forward move today shipping in from New York and should be a major pace player.

 

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – January 11th

Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis for BetPTC.com / January 11th

by: Ed Meyer

Gulfstream Park

Race #8 – Marshua’s River – 1 1/16 on the turf – 3:34 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #4 – Sweet Bye and Bye / #5 – Andina Del Sur / #3 – Magic Star

#4 Sweet Bye and Bye is a daughter of Sky Mesa for the Steve Klesaris barn. She is a beaten favorite and the barn comes back to score 19% on this move. Luis Saez has the call aboard a stalking type gal shipping in from AQU where the barn is 43% ITM. Look for a stout move rounding the far turn. #5 Andina Del Sur is a daughter of Giant’s Causeway with Javier Castellano in the irons for Thom Albertrani. She is 4 for 5 ITM over the course and her dam Andina (IRE) has 4 starters, 3 winners, and 3 turf winners to her credit. A late running sort who will fit nicely into Castellano’s hands where he wins 20% with closers. #3 Magic Star is a daughter of Scat Daddy for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz. She’s been off for two months and Brown wins 28% with his shippers and 23% with graded stakes. She’s a long range closer stepping up in class and Ortiz scores at a 21% with late runners.

 

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Race #10 – The G3 Tropical Turf – 1 mile on the turf – 4:38 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections /#8 – A Thread of Blue / #6 – Tusk / #9 – Exulting

#8 A Thread of Blue is a speedy type for the Kiaran McLaughlin barn with Luis Saez in the saddle. He is 3 for 3 with wins over the course and Saez is an excellent speed rider winning 21% of his early running mounts. He was a beaten chalk last out and ships in from Belmont where the barn scores at a 20% win clip. #6 Tusk is a stalking sort from the Saffie Joseph barn with Tyler Gaffalione in the saddle. They are winning 33% as a team and 2nd off the layoff. Last out he was held up in traffic and gave a late sustained effort. #9 Exulting is a son of Tapit for the Mike Maker barn. Irad Ortiz gets the nod and is a late runner. He floated 6 wide last out and finished 5th. With a cleaner trip he can come rolling late in the lane.

 

Santa Anita

Race #3 – The G-3 Las Cienegas – 5 1/2f on the turf – 4:30 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Storm the Hill / #4 – An Eddie Surprise / #5 – Free Cover

#1 Storm the Hill is a long range closer for Phil D’Amato and Flavien Prat in the irons. She is 2nd off the layoff and makes the route to a sprint move today where the barn wins 22%. This daughter of Get Stormy is a closer and Prat wins 23% with his turf runners. A drop in class and cutting back to a sprint may be what the doctor ordered. #4 An Eddie Surprise comes from the Doug O’Neill barn and Mario Gutierrez who is wining at 30%. She is 13 for 15 ITM over the course and 1 for 1 at the distance. She jumps up in class and can come rolling in the lane. #5 Free Cover makes the dirt to turf move today. This daughter of Congrats drops down the class ladder and may be in a perfect stalking position.

 

Race #8 – The G3 La Canada – 1 1/16 – 7:00 pm EDT

BetPTC.com Selections / #7 – Spiced Perfection / #4 – Message / #3 – Queen Bee to You

#7 Spiced Perfection comes from the barn of Peter Miller picking up Joel Rosario in the saddle. They won the G3 Go For Wand and the trainer wins 24% off a last race win. She’s a solid stalker who is 5 for 6 ITM over the course. #4 Message hails from the Bob Baffert barn with Mike Smith in the irons. She has plenty of early speed and 2 for 2 ITM over the strip. She makes a jump in class and may be tough to catch. #3 Queen Bee to You is 7 for 9 ITM over the course and exits an impressive win in the G-3 Bayakoa. She is looking for her third straight win and should get a stalking trip under Ruben Fuentes who wins 18% with this style of runner.

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Dubai Racing Carnival – Saturday 2/17/18

New Zealand Racing Returns Ahead of Karaka Million

Sky Racing World will recommence distribution of horse-racing content from New Zealand Racing Board-operated tracks to North American advance depositing wagering (ADW) sites starting Jan. 25th EST/PST ahead of the G1 Karaka Million this weekend.
Horse Racing needs to coolAfter a six-month hiatus, the first available New Zealand horse-racing content will be from Pukekohe Park at 6:25 p.m. EST or 3:25 p.m. PST on Thursday, Jan. 25th EST/PST (12:25 p.m. on Friday, Jan. 26th in New Zealand). Nine races will feature in this inaugural race-day run at Pukekohe Park Raceway, near Auckland.
The Pukekohe races will serve to whet North American customers’ appetites for New Zealand racing ahead of the country’s prestigious Karaka Million race meet at Ellerslie Racecourse this Friday, Jan. 26th. With racing starting at 10:41 p.m. EST or 7:41 p.m. PST (4:41 p.m. New Zealand time on Saturday, Jan. 27th), the day features two of New Zealand’s richest races – the G1 $1 million NZD ($730,000) Karaka Million for two-year-olds and the $1 million NZD Karaka Million 3 YO Classic – as well as four other Group-status races.
There will also be NZ racing from Riccarton on Friday night starting at 6:02 p.m. EST or 3:02 p.m. PST.

BetPTC.com Horses to Watch – 12/4/17

BetPTC.com – Horses to Watch – 12/4/17

BetPTC.com – Ed Meyer – Graded Stakes Preview

Aqueduct

12/2/17

Race #8 – The G2 Demoisel – 1 1/8 – 3:12 pm ET

BetPTC.com Selections = #4 -Held Accountable / #1 – Daisy / #6 – Maurer Power

#4  = Held Accountable = Luis Saez for Phil Serpe who is winning 23% on the meet. Two-yr-filly by Exchange Rate and she is a perfect 3/3 ITM and finished 2nd her last effort. Her dam New Exchange is 8 starters / 6 winners / 1 stakes winner and wins 20% with her babies. The Serpe barn is 48% ITM with 2-yr-olds and this gal should be high balling late in the lane.  #1 – Daisy = This two-yr-old daughter of Blame is a smoking perfect 2/2. Her last effort in the G3 Tempted was very impressive. She enters in from the John Servis barn and her dam Lovely Stray has 2 starts / 1win / 1 stakes win. #6 – Maurer Power = 2-yr-old filly by Violence from the John Servis barn. She is 2/2 and rolling between runners late last out. She received first time Lasix and kicked clear impressively. Irad Ortiz in the saddle and she has a strong rider who win anywhere he rides.

Race#9 – G2 Remsen – 1 1/8 – 3:45 PM 

BetPTC.com Selections = #5 – Catholic Boy / #8 – Vouch / #3- Avery Island

#5= Catholic Boy =  Manny Franco in the irons in a race that is chock-full of stone closers. This son of More Than Ready is late mid-pack closer and is taking a huge drop down the class ladder. He makes the switch from turf/dirt and was flying late in the lane in the BC Juvenile Turf. He should come in fit and leged up and is his last race any effort he could win at a very solid price. #8 – Vouch = Speedster from the Arnaud Delacour barn and this son of Yes It’s True should take advantage of a quick start being sent by Joel Rosario. Catch him if you can! – #3 – Avery Island = Speedy son of Street Sense and he’ll be hard to hold when the gate breaks open. He is 2/3 ITM for the Kiaran McLaughlin barn. He was looking like good thing winning by 4 3/4. He’ll show the way under Joe Bravo who wins 21% with early style runners.

Race#10 – The G1 Cigar – 1 mile on the main – 4:16 PM ET

BetPTC.com Selections = #6- Sharp Azteca / #1 – Mind Your Biscuits /#4 = Tom’s Ready

#6 – Sharp Azteca = Javier Castellano for Jorge Navarro. 3rd start off the layoff exiting the G1 BC Dirt Mile. His works have been good in South Florida and this son of Freud is 7/8 ITM going the distance.He looks very tough today. #1 Mind Your Biscuits = Irad Ortiz has the call and comes in off a 7w close in the BC Sprint. 2nd of the shelf yields a 23% win clip for the Chad Summers barn. Could be a big player if the early fractions heat up. #4 – Tom’s Ready = Mike Smith in the irons for Dallas Stewart. This son of More Than Ready is a long-launch closer but has never been over this the “Big A.” He’s had a good 2017 going 5/6 ITM. Smith making the trip is a promising sign.

 

 

Graded Stakes Preview – Saturday, June 24th, 2017

BetPTC.com / Graded Stakes Preview / Ed Meyer

Thistledown

Race #8 – The G-3 Ohio Derby – 1 1/8 main – 5:30 pm EST

#8 -Girvin (2-1) / #2 – Untrapped (9-2) / #5 – Sorry Erik (6-1) / #8 -Game Over (12-1)

BetPTC.com Selections:

Girvin looked like a major player heading into the Derby. He was knocked around quite a bit and been away from the races for 49 days. The bullet work signals all systems go, and with Mike Smith in irons that seals the deal for me. Untrapped has the same story as Girvin. He has a solid work tab, but no exclamation to show he is ready for top billing. He’s an honest runner but may be second best with his top effort. Sorry Erik has been racing on the “left coast” and this G-3 spot looks like a great way to begin a summer campaign. He should get a piece of the pie. Game Over makes a second start off the layoff and may not be the top dog in here. But that’s why they run the races and you can’t leave him off your exotic tickets.

Churchill Downs

Race #10 – The G-3 Chicago Handicap – 7f main – 5:21 pm EST

#3 – Kathballu (8-1)  / #5 – Ivy Belle (30-1) / #8 – Finley’s luckycharm (4-5) / #9 – Sweetgrass (10-1)

BetPTC.com Selections:

Kathballu has been away from the races for 56 days and has three works over the track. This daughter of Bluegrass Cat is coming in fresh for Ken McPeek. 7 panels looks to fit and there is plenty of speed to stalk. Look for a top effort. Ivy Belle may look to be cut below at first glance, but has rolled off three-in-a-row since the end of 2016. The new year has her looking like a maturing runner and 2017 can be a brand new chapter. Finley’sluckycharm is the one to beat. This daughter of Twirling Candy is one fast filly and been ultra tough going short. She is a perfect 5/5 at Churchill, and you’re going to have to look to find the value you deserve. Sweetgrass is a daughter of Street Sense who is 3/4 ITM going 7 panels. She has the look of an honest runner who brings her best everytime. She is primed to get a minor award.

Santa Anita

Race #4 – The G-3 Affirmed – 1 1/16 main- 5:30 pm EST

#2 – Battle of Midway (4-5) / #5 – Arms Runner (9-5) / #1 – B Squared (6-1)

BetPTC.com Selections:

Battle of Midway took a shot at the Derby but had no two-year-old season. This 3yr-old may be a maturing runner. The son of Smart Strike is 4/4 ITM over the course, and  been away 49 days from the races. His works are a good sign and looks to be the major danger. Arms Runner is 2/2 on the turf going 6 1/2f and gets the acid test today. He comes from the barn of Peter Miller (27%) and may enjoy the added distance. B Squared is a nice Cal-bred and has shown versatlity. He was a beaten favorite last out and the barn comes back to win at a (27%) clip on this move. Speed on the lead can be dangerous, but he’ll need an A+ game to get the win.

Santa Anita

Race #6 – The G-3 Precisionist – 1 1/16 main- 6:30 pm EST

#3 – Accelerate (5-2) / #4 – Collected (4-5) / #1 – Donworth (6-1)

BetPTC.com Selections:

Accelerate is a son of Lookin At Lucky and is 5/6 ITM at Santa Anita. He was away from the races for 49 days starting in February. His first back was an O.C. $75,000 prep and was a beaten chalk this day. Trainer John Sadler is bringing him along in fine fashion, and owns a bullet work 59.3 / 5f on 6/19/17. This may be the start of very good things to come. Collected is the one to beat. He comes from the Bob Baffert barn and cuts back to a 1 1/16 from 1 1/8. Take a look back at the G-3 Lexington Stakes and he relished the distance. Donworth has been away from the races for over a year. This son of Tiznow was a $550,000 Keeneland sales purchase and looks to make 2017 his year to reward his connections.

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Graded Stakes Preview for Saturday, 11/12/2016

Turf Marathoners Go Eleven Furlongs in the Red Smith!!

Aqueduct Race 7 (post 3:17 Eastern) The Red Smith Stakes (Grade 3, turf).  3yo and Up.

Class:  Wake Forest has run well in Grade 1 races in 2016 has earned nearly $765,000 in 17 starts.

Expected pace:  Fast for an 11 furlong race.  Many seem capable of leading in here.

Consistency:  Bigger Picture has been around the money in his last 9 starts.

BetPTC.com Selections:

1st – #8 Wake Forest (8/5)   2nd – #9 Bigger Picture (6/1)   3rd – #7 Messi (5/1)

WAKE FOREST has been facing much better and I have to give him the edge dropping down to Grade 3 from Grade 1 for super trainer Chad Brown.  Bigger Picture might not be the classiest horse in the field but his trainer excels in these turf marathons with former claimers and it feels like this horse is due for a slight breakthrough and a top three finish.  Messi is a sort of a query, sometimes he runs close to the pace, sometimes he doesn’t.  Sometimes he finishes well, sometimes he doesn’t.  If you do like him, the price will be fair and maybe you can catch him on a “good day.”

 

Three year old Dirt Routers Go Nine Furlongs in the Discovery!!

Aqueduct Race 8 (post 3:47 Eastern) The Discovery Stakes (Grade 3).  3yo only.

Class: Governor Malibu has earned nearly $579,000 in 12 starts

Expected pace:  Moderate for a 9 furlong race.  Few horses seem capable of leading in here.

Consistency:  Hot Seat (2-2-0-0) has been a world-beater at Parx.  New York is a step up but he sees capable of running well.

BetPTC.com Selections:

1st – #6 Hot Seat (10/1)   2nd – #5 Governor Malibu (4/1)   3rd – #3 Gift Box (3/1)

HOT SEAT is a potential loose leader and gets the talents of hot jockey Antonio Gallardo.  If you are not familiar with Gallardo, he has ridden primarily on the Tampa Bay-Presque Ilse-Monmouth circuit the last few years to great success, even leading the nation in wins.  He moved to New York about 6 weeks ago and he’s currently winning at 25% at Aqueduct (32-8-4-3).  Governor Malibu is kind of a tough luck horse, he seems to get in his own way late in races and usually there is one or two horses that are better.  I like that he has kept racing since the Travers when he got squashed by Arrogate, earning a win and a second.  If the track is wet give him some extra credit, he has a very nice wet track record (4-2-2-0).  Gift Box has the most talent in this field, he’s knocked heads against several top horses and his best race probably wins here.  He’s definitely a solid win contender.

 

Three year Olds go 8.5 Furlongs on the Turf in the Commonwealth Turf!

Churchill Race 10 (post 5:30 Eastern) The Commonwealth Turf Stakes (Grade 3).  3yo only.

Class: One Mean Man has earned nearly $419,000 in 16 starts.  Sir Dudley Diggs earned a lot of money against Canadian-breds but only around $40,000 in open company.

Expected pace:  Scholar Athlete will try to lead.

Consistency:  Bondurant has never lost a two-turn grass race (3-3-0-0).

BetPTC.com Selections:

1st – #8 Bondurant (6/1)   2nd – #7 One Mean Man (3/1)  

3rd – #3 Blackout (6/1)   4th – #4 Hay Dakota (20/1)

BONDURANT seems capable of more improvement, being 3rd of the layoff.  His trainer is 20% wins 3rd off the layoff too. One Mean Man is usually around the finish and he has won four of his last five races.  Major player.  Blackout has won three of his last four races, including a BRIS speed figure from his most recent race that is strong enough to win this stakes.  Blackout also gets top jock Florent Geroux for the Mark Casse team, which adds to the appeal.  Hay Dakota is definitely on the improve and has always been in the money on turf (6-3-1-2).  He is definitely one to consider as the price will be right.  Notice he only lost to One Mean Man by a neck at Canterbury Park in late August going a two-turn mile.

Breeders’ Cup Saturday at Santa Anita, 11/5/2016

Race 4 Santa Anita (Post 3:05 Eastern)  BC Juvenile Fillies (8.5 furlongs) – Grade 1

Class:  Undetermined

Expected Pace:  With Honors will send from post 2.  American Gal (post 12) has sprint speed and will either make the lead or sit outside With Honors.  Jamyson and Ginger showed a lot of pace on a wet track, which she won’t get in Southern California in the Fall.  It’s a tough read to predict how she will do on fast dirt.  Noted and Quoted will be handy.

Consistency:  Yellow Agate is 2 for 2 wins, including a nice score at 32/1 in her debut.

Bet PTC.com selections:

1st – #12 American Gal (6/1)  

2nd – #4 Yellow Agate (8/1)  

3rd – #7 Jamyson and Ginger (9/2)

4th – #10 Noted and Quoted (9/2)

I think AMERICAN GAL is the best athlete in this group and unless both Jamyson and Ginger and With Honors go on a suicide mission on the front end the pace should be reasonable.  Yellow Agate beat Jamyson and Ginger “on the square” on September 11th and I see no reason why she can’t do it again.  Noted and Quoted LOVES Santa Anita but the reality the isn’t a very dynamic individual.  She’ll be fortunate to hit the top three in this race.

 

Race 5 Santa Anita (Post 3:43 Eastern)  BC Filly and Mare Turf (10 furlongs) – Grade 1

Class:  Lady Eli with $1.8 Million in earnings

Expected Pace: Catch a Glimpse will try to go wire to wire

Consistency:  Lady Eli is (8-7-1-0) in her career

Bet PTC.com selections:

1st – #1 Sea Calisi (8/1)  

2nd – #8 Lady Eli (5/2)  

3rd – #5 Al’s Gal (15/1)

4th – #6 Zipessa (20/1)

SEA CALISI and Lady Eli are the best two horses on Thoro-graph numbers.  Cold exacta box.  Al’s Gal and Zipessa are slower, but ULTRA-consistent.  I promise you one of them will end up in the super.

 

Race 6 Santa Anita (Post 4:21 Eastern)  BC Sprint (6 furlongs) – Grade 1

Class:  Lord Nelson with $958,271 in earnings in 13 starts

Expected Pace: Masochistic and Delta Bluesman are going to set a sub :44 half mile split.

Consistency:  A.P. Indian is 6 for 6 in 2016, and Lord Nelson is 4 for 4.  Masochistic is 2 for 2

Bet PTC.com selections:

1st – #6 Lord Nelson (5/2)  

2nd – #5 A.P. Indian (4/1)  

3rd – #7 Masochistic (2/1)

4th – #8 Noholdingback Bear (15/1)

LORD NELSON is on a roll and he can pass horses.  He also owns the top Thoro-graph number in the field.  Choice.  A.P. Indian is hot too, and if this race was at Saratoga he’s be the favorite.  Unfortunately his TG numbers aren’t as good away from Upstate New York.  Masochistic will go on the lead as far as he can.  Usually “need the lead types” do not win that way in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.  Noholdingback Bear showed a new dimension while closing in a big stakes race at Parx.  He will probably show similar tactics again, but these are much better animals to face this weekend.

 

Race 7 Santa Anita (Post 4:21 Eastern)  BC Turf Sprint (about 6.5 furlongs) – Grade 1

Class:  Celestine has earned $824,755 in 13 starts  Obviously has earned $1.77 million in 28 starts.

Expected Pace: Pure Sensation, Obviously and Mongolian Saturday are going to set a sub :43 half mile split.

Consistency:  Om is (10-4-3-2) in his career on the grass.  Celestine is (11-6-2-2) on the grass.

Bet PTC.com selections:

1st – #14 Celestine (8/1)  

2nd – #12 Om (12/1)  

3rd – #10 Ambitious Brew (10/1)

4th – #9 A Lot (8/1)

Celestine is a good animal and she’s proven she can track a fast pace and finish strong.  Om drew wide, which will also help him.  Gary Stevens knows this is a good chance to get another Breeders’ Cup win.  Ambitious Brew is 5 wins in 9 starts down the hill – that has to be worth something.  Also he drew fairly wide, where he should be able to avoid trouble.  A Lot is a hard trier that usually misses the win, but runs second “a lot.”  Don’t leave him out of your vertical wagers.

 

Race 8 Santa Anita (Post 5:43 Eastern)  BC Juvenile (8.5 furlongs) – Grade 1

Class:  Undertermined

Expected Pace: Syndergaard will go as fast as he can for as long as he can.

Consistency:  Three Rules has been “the boss” in South Florida, (5-5-0-0).

Bet PTC.com selections:

1st – #1 Klimt (6/1)

2nd – #10 Not This Time (7/2)

3rd – #9 Practical Joke (6/1)

4th – #5 Classic Empire (4/1)

KLIMT is not a “special horse,” but he’s pretty good, and in his last race he was very ride chasing a solo horse loose on the lead.  With Syndergaard providing the race some early heat it should make for a much fairer test.  Not This Time could be a beast.  I just want to see him run up the score on the West coast before I get too excited.  Practical Joke appears to be the value horse again after not running as the favorite in the Hopeful or the Champagne.  If I had to pick a horse to hit the board in this race, I would go with this guy.  Classic Empire hasn’t done much wrong in here, and his races have been fast.  A horse that deserves respect.  I am also going to use numbers 2 and 4 in my horizontal wagers.

 

Race 9 Santa Anita (Post 6:22 Eastern)  BC Turf (12 furlongs) – Grade 1

Class:  Found has earned $7.252 Million in 20 starts.  Flintshire has earned $8.893 Million in 23 starts

Expected Pace: Ectot will set a :49 and change pace.  Ashleyluvssugar will prompt the pace.  Money Multiplier, Twilight Eclipse and Flintshire will be close enough.

Consistency:  Flinstshire does quite well on firm American turf courses (3-3-0-0).

Bet PTC.com selections:

1st – #4 Flintshire (5/2)

2nd – #10 Found (3/1)

3rd – #9 Highland Reel (3/1)

4th – #5 Da Big Hoss (20/1)

FLINTSHIRE may have taken a step back last time, but that was on a really wet Belmont turf course that his PPs indicate he doesn’t act on.  He wants firm turf, and there is no rain expected in Southern California for the next week.  Roll on, Flintshire, roll on…Found usually runs second, so it was kind of a shock that she won the Arc.  The Arc is usually run 3 or 4 weeks before the Breeders’ Cup, so the Arc winner does not get a lot of time to rest or recover.  That may explain why the winner of the Arc has never won a Breeders’ Cup race.  I do not expect Found to reverse that trend.  Highland Reel is super honest and horses that gets in the top 5 in the Arc have won the Breeders’ Cup turf.  So if you like him on top that’s fine.  One thing about Highland Reel though – he REALLLLY gets sweaty in the neck area before a race.  I guess he just gets nervous.  Da Big Hoss is a tough customer, and his two mile win at Belmont would be fast enough to win this event.  His two most recent races were slower, but still OK on final time.

 

Race 10 Santa Anita (Post 7:01 Eastern)  BC F&M Sprint (7 furlongs) – Grade 1

Class:  Carina Mia has won $1.054 million in 9 starts

Expected Pace: Gloryzapper will probably try to lead with Paulassilverlining and Carina Mia being very handy.

Consistency:  Carina Mia is (9-4-3-1) for her career.

Bet PTC.com selections:

1st – #4 Carina Mia (7/2)

2nd – #6 By the Moon (8/1)

3rd – #2 Haveyougoneaway (3/1)

4th – #11 Irish Jasper (10/1)

In many ways, this is a replay of the Ballerina at Saratoga in August, with CARINA MIA, By the Moon and Haveyougoneaway (and Paulassilverlining) all coming out of that Grade 1 sprint.  I thought Carina Mia got a very aggressive ride from Joel Rosario, which definitely cost her some punch late.  Now we see Julien Leparoux is riding Carina Mia – so either there was a conflict (Rosario is riding Wavell Avenue) or trainer Bill Mott didn’t appreciate Rosario’s ride.  In the Ballerina By the Moon was in post 2, and Haveyougoneaway was in post 10.  Now Haveyougoneaway is post 2 and By the Moon is in post 6.  With the post switch I am going to lean SLIGHTLY that By the Moon is the value play.  Irish Jasper has really come to life in her last two races and is definitely a win threat from well off the pace.

 

Race 11 Santa Anita (Post 7:40 Eastern)  BC Mile (8 furlongs, turf) – Grade 1

Class:  Tepin has won $4.093 million in 22 starts

Expected Pace: Photo Call will probably try to lead and set a faster than average pace.

Consistency:  Limato is (11-6-4-0) on grass and (13-8-4-0) overall.  Ironicus is (13-6-6-1) in his grass starts.

Bet PTC.com selections:

1st – #9 Ironicus (8/1)

2nd – #8 Tepin (3/1)

3rd – #2 Alice Springs (4/1)

4th – #10 Limato (7/2)

IRONICUS has been pointed to this race for months now and I think it’s going to be “score time” on Saturday.  Don’t expect 8/1 – because Shug’s operation is so consistent over time the savvy players know when he’s “live.”  Expect 5/1.  Just take that price.  If 5/1 isn’t good enough then use this horse in all the exotics you can afford.  Tepin is a great champion, but in her Thoro-graph race record it’s apparent that she runs much better at Keeneland than anywhere else.  If she doesn’t bring her “A+” game someone is going to beat her to the line.  Alice Springs and Limato are well-connected European runners with great race records.  Alice Springs has a great late kick, and while she isn’t a standout on Thoro-graph, I would consider using her under in exactas and trifectas.  Limato is obviously a great turf sprinter, but he’s never won at a mile and he’s also slower than Ironicus and Tepin on the Thoro-graph numbers.  Kind of a hard horse to take on top at only a 7/2 ML quote.  Because he is so consistent, he is another horse to use under in the exotics, if so desired.

 

Race 12 Santa Anita (Post 8:35 Eastern)  BC Classic (10 furlongs) – Grade 1

Class:  California Chrome has won $13.433 million in 24 starts

Expected Pace: Melatonin or California Chrome will lead

Consistency:  California Chrome is (6 for 6, $7.1 million) in 2016

Bet PTC.com selections:

1st – #4 California Chrome (1/1)

2nd – #10 Arrogate (5/2)

3rd – #9 Hoppertunity (15/1)

4th – #2 Frosted (5/1)

CALIFORNIA CHROME looks great, is working well, and has a very good SA record (8-5-1-1).  I think the only query is do they go right for the lead, and risk getting caught in a speed duel with Melatonin, or do they sit back a bit and find cover behind horses?  It’s a little bit of a head scratcher.  Arrogate seems like the logical upsetter, and on both BRIS and Thoro-graph they have Arrogate’s Travers as the fastest race in the entire field.  He’s also coming in on a 70 day layoff, but from the video workouts I have watched, Arrogate is in stellar form.  Hoppertunity is no great shakes, but most of the horses in this race are early-speed oriented, and he loves to close.  He may get a big piece of the purse if Arrogate doesn’t fire.  Frosted is a horse that probably would have won the Dirt Mile, but his connections put Tamarkuz into that slot, and are aiming for the big BC Classic pot.  Can he do it?  He’s never proven it against top company, and California Chrome and Arrogate are the epitome of “top company.”