Historically the Arc is won by:
1) A three year old
2) That has won at a mile and a half
3) Is very well bred
4) Has run fast at a mile and a half
5) Did not run its best race going into the Arc (prep race was below standard)
6) Has a good post to save ground in the run
The only horse that fits all these criteria is #11 HARZAND
The favorite, Postponed, is the fastest horse on paper but he had a long campaign and is 5 years old. Horses 5 years years old and older have only won ‘the Arc’ 7 times since 1920. He also looked like a tired horse in the 10 Furlong York International. I won’t be using Postponed on top.