Historically the Arc is won by:

1) A three year old

2) That has won at a mile and a half

3) Is very well bred

4) Has run fast at a mile and a half

5) Did not run its best race going into the Arc (prep race was below standard)

6) Has a good post to save ground in the run

The only horse that fits all these criteria is #11 HARZAND

The favorite, Postponed, is the fastest horse on paper but he had a long campaign and is 5 years old.  Horses 5 years years old and older have only won ‘the Arc’ 7 times since 1920.  He also looked like a tired horse in the 10 Furlong York International.  I won’t be using Postponed on top.