Now that we finished several Derby Preps, I will finally way in and have a list of horses that I think can WIN the Kentucky Derby .
- Carpe Diem – wow, what a performance in Tampa Derby. He never got out of a gallop. He is going to the Blue Grass next and will enter the Derby with only 2 preps which in recent years is the new trend of the winner. He is bred to run all day and a tactical horse that can run his best from anywhere.
- Dortmund– He is probably the leader in the clubhouse but I for one am not convinced he can get the distance and the grinder style he has is not the way to win the Derby . He is going to have to be able to deal with a lot faster fractions and keep running and I am not really wild about him being able to do that. He got easy lead in his last and that is not what I want in the Derby.
- Prospect Park— He reminds me so much of Real Quiet where he struggled to break maiden then ran behind the big name speed and looks like he is dieing for more distance and was not even trying to pick up the winner in last and was gaining on his own. SA Derby will be his coming out party I think.
- Firing Line – he may be distance limited but I think he compares to Funny Cide in that if the race is run faster and he can sit off it he has the quick burst for about 3F ‘s to be able to have a say but I just don’t see him getting the distance.
- American Pharoah- the forgotten horse. If he comes back as fast or faster he may be the one to deal with when they turn the bend to face 100,000 fans . He has the trainer , he has the stamina, the sire has no questions. He has the speed to stalk and the ability to run away and hide he could be Bodemeister but if he is 3 in front he wont stop. The issue is we don’t want speed in the derby.
- Upstart—He won the FOY but he sure looked spent and dead in the lane to somehow win when Frosted got hit in the head with that rock at the top of the stretch. Upstart is by my favorite sire Flatter but that doesn’t scream Ky Derby. He will run his race just not sure he is good enough to win. Word is he is going to The Wood next and will face our next horse on list.
- Far From Over—By sire Blame, he can only get better going farther and I think the bad break let them discover how he needs to be ridden. Sit him back make one big run but is he fast enough? Right now, no and it ain’t close but that doesn’t mean he cant get faster.
- Texas Red– I don’t like when horses have issues before the trail even gets started we will see if he can make the SA Derby. He is fast enough and has the style to win the Derby but they don’t usually win the Derby with issues.
I only see 8 horses with any chance to actually win the Derby right now. We can keep our eyes open the next month and see who is growing and getting better. Works are important and so are speed numbers which I will get to next time.