Today’s topic is making sure you have a “Key” horse in your sequence when playing a multi race bet.
Once I notice there is a carryover at a certain track the first thing I do is scan all the races in the sequence. I begin to make mental notes on each race;
-type of race (claimer, maiden, allow etc)
-is the race handicappable, understanding the race shape
-how many unknowns are there in the race
A race that is a bottom claimer, not knowing the race shape and many
unknowns means there is no key in that race. So if there are three or four of these races in the sequence = NO play for the carryover.
If I can find a solid key in one or two of the races then I really start to
get focused on the sequence of races. In a pick 4 bet if there are two
races that I need a maxium of two horses in those legs then it still
becomes playable. Remember you need races that are capable and
very few unknowns to be confident in the specific legs.
If you can find some keys then gives you more room to spread out elsewhere. Having 3 or 4 in most of the legs really says you do not
have a strong grasp of each race. Avoid playing multi race bets and
simply play each race at a time.
Final point, some experts saying keying a short price horse is not the way to go. I disagree because if it is a very strong key then you can
really spread out elsewhere that may produce the big price horse
you need to make it pay. Forcing a key or forcing a higher price horse
only limits your success. Pass the carryover sequence and wait for
another carryover or wait for tomorrow for an even bigger carryover.