by Keeneland Dan
Let’s go over the 1st 8 days of racing at Turfway Park and see how our rules did.
NEVER bet the 1 hole in any kind of sprint race. The numbers don’t lie. Stay away. You will beat more dead favorites then the law allows if you stay away from the inside post.
UPDATE 1 hole is 1 for 40. Yes, 1 for 40
Read the form on sprint races from the OUTSIDE IN. Start at the 12 horse and read in. WHY? Because it is human nature to find the first horse or two that catches you eye and bet him. If you force yourself to start on the outside in these sprints you will find more price horses and more winners starting from the outside. The best posts to look for sprinting at Turfway Park is the 6-10 holes. Most races there are not 12 but if there are go out to the 12 hole. AVOID the inside!!!
UPDATE post 6-12 are winning over 65% of sprint races
Stick to the top riders. Turfway is a specialist track and the top riders will dominate every day it is common to see them win 3 or 4 in a day. Watchout for Stu Elliott this meet…he is a great Poly rider and he is going to Turfway for the Winter.
UPDATE No Stu yet but the ranks are coming together Jimenez is getting hot 10 wins followed by new apprentice Gilligan, then Osorio and Parker.
Stick to horse with Poly success, don’t run to the dirt horses. Watch the old races and go back to the charts for the poly races. Horses that like it like it. It really is that simple.
UPDATE Churchill horses are rolling and horses will poly success are dominating claiming races. The Churchill horses in maiden races have been unstoppable.
Watch for Turf horses to Poly many will toss them and turf horse always run well at Turfway.
UPDATE angle has been strong with another Star Play winner Sunday. Allowance type Grass horses are the angle here.
Maker will have a big meet I know many favorites but hard to leave him out.
UPDATE Maker has NOT panned out yet as he is a surprising 0-11.
Bet Pick 4’s low takeout !!
UPDATE P4’s have been paying great the entire meet already. This is the play, single spread spread we have had several FBG members clock P4’s. Biggest pools and lowest takeouts.
PID shippers, grass shippers from Churchill, horses that like Arlington Park are the ones to look for stay away from Belterra shippers.
UPDATE Belterra shippers have been awful, CH and Arl have run very well; not many PID shippers have run yet
So far the way to play has been the P4 and single, spread, spread method. Find a horse you like or follow what we use as Star plays and then spread like mad and stick to the outside posts sprinting. Jimenez is heating up don’t leave his horses out . Eight Days in and we are hanging tough. ROI is -$8 not too bad but P4’s we are profitable. You can find me and my picks at www.FatBaldGuyracing.com and on twitter way too much Keeneland Dan @FatBaldGuyracin .
Everyone have a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays,
Look forward to a great year coming!