Tough week last week for me – 0 winners in 4 tips. Hopefully there is upside this week:
Race 1A (Flemington) – 8:55 PM EST -Talindart Stakes – 5.5 furlongs, “straight course (no turns).” 2 year olds (open).
In these straight course races the horses with the widest draws (posts 10, 11 and 12) tend to have the advantage. Horses with race experience in these early 2yo stakes also have a slight edge. #2 Brooklyn appears to be improving since his last prep and will be a fair price in the 9/1 range. #12 Stay With Me is considered a top prospect.
Race 1B (Rosehill) – 9:05 PM EST – BM 90 (similar to a N3x/$80,000 optional claimer in the USA). 3up, 5.5 furlongs
#2 Kencella looks to be the speed and he crushed his barrier trial (practice race) by 13 lengths (usually a 3 or 4 length barrier trial win is considered exceptional). He’s also 3 wins in 4 starts at Rosehill. Currently Kencella is 7/5 with the Australian bookies. #6 Kristy Lee appears the horse most likely to take advantage if Kencella disappoints.
Race 2B (Rosehill) – 9:45 PM EST – BM 80 (similar to a N2x allowance in the USA). 3 year olds, 5.5 furlongs.
#2 Washington Heights is above his conditions but has some of the best numbers in this race and should get the early pace he needs for his late run. Going back several races, #9 Bugatty has the other top numbers here but may be compromised by the early pace, as he is a “need the lead” type. #1 Law looked like as top prospect when he won his first two races as a 2 year old but has not moved forward and is probably vulnerable. #5 Shaumari’s numbers are below the numbers for the top three picks – underlay. #12 Wild ‘N’ Famous tracked a very strong early pace and was able to hold on for the Snowden team in October. Was 18/1 on the Morning Line (ML) I use but is only 8/1 with the bookies. Certainly rates a chance in a fairly wide open race.
Race 7A (Flemington) – 12:35 AM SATURDAY EST -Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes – 5.0 furlongs, “straight course (no turns).” 3 and up (open).
#1 Lankan Rupee is just faster than these other horses. Unless Deep Field gets in a speed duel with Lankan Rupee (and he’s NEVER been as quick as Lankan Rupee) this should be an open and shut case. #6 Brazen Beau ran last two races in good time, figures to be very competitive but my thinking the trainer is looking at the Newmarket Handicap in a few week’s time, which is for much bigger money. Deep Field is 5 for 5 in his career and if Lankan Rupee has a gate mishap he could wire the field.