Friday Night Aussie racing (10/31/2014)

Race 4A (Flemington) – 10:30 PM EDT Friday night

Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes – 6 furlongs (straight course)  

It could be argued that the straight course (no turns) at Flemington has featured some of the fastest grass sprinters in the world, from Vain to Choisir to Takeover Target to Snitzel to Black Caviar.

Because there are no turns, early speed to get position is not as important as in a typical turf sprint, and the horses that can effectively track the speed closely and pounce at roughly one furlong out usually prevail.  It is far easier to track the speed from the HIGH-NUMBERED posts that are closer to the stands’ rail (i.e. nearest the fans).  That is why is is usually better to “draw wide.”

The speed figures I use say that three horses have the best chance to win this race:  #1 Rich Enuff (9/2 ML, post 10), #8 Kuro (15/1 ML, post 16) and #2 Brazen Beau (6/1 ML, post 15).  Note all three horses will be toward the stand’s side, which is preferred.

Rich Enuff put in a monster sprint race (naturally with a wide draw) on this course on Sept. 13th, and I would say 3/1 are his fair odds in this race.  His last defeat was too far for him and 6 furlongs is his best distance.  Kuro (10/1 fair odds) and Brazen Beau (5/1 fair odds) ship in from Sydney but their post draw went very well and they should be tough to beat.  Box all three in the exacta and trifecta and bet the overlays to win.

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