Friday Night Australian Racing, 12/4/2015

Friday’s Race 1A (Sandown-Hillside) and Race 1B (Randwick) are profiled this week.

Race 1A (Sandown-Hillside), 3yo, 7 furlongs BM70 (think N1x Allowance/$16,000 claiming).  Purse AUD $80,000.  Post time is 8:25 EST.

Interesting race here.  #1 Ragazzo Del Corsa (expected 5/2 favorite) has been facing tougher competition than the others and is dropping in class to the lowest level it has seen in many races.  It also has the top 4 speed figures in the field showing.  In the USA this would be “slam dunk” and I am making this horse my top pick.  The main negative with the expected 5/2 favorite is it has already eight starts and only one win!  Don’t over bet this horse, try to get 3/1 or better. But beware; I have seen many of these “professional losers” struggle Down Under.

#5 Vostok (5/1 on my line) is extremely lightly raced and is a first out winner for the always dangerous Peter Moody.  Seems the main danger for the favorite if it can improve.  The rest appear to be too slow to make a dent.


Race 1B (Randwick), 2yo, 5 furlongs Maiden Special Weight.  Purse AUD $85,000.  Post time is 8:40 EST.

I love 2yo races because the race usually goes to the swift, and the swift usually tip their hand in their workouts.  In this race everybody is first-time starter with a barrier trial or two (a barrier trial is a simulated race run at about 3/4 speed).

#5 Niccolance (5/1 on my line) has the fastest adjusted 4f trial time of 47 and 2/5, and I think he might get overlooked in here and is my top pick.  His sire Nicconi was as fast as they come and broodmare sire Lonhro is a source of speed and quality.  5/1 would be fair odds.

#6 Regimental Force (5/2 on my line) is bred to be a dominant 2yo with Sepoy on top and General Nediym on the bottom.  Could well be a rocket ship and this one won its sole trial by a whopping 9.5 lengths in 48 flat for 4 furlongs.  Could be any kind but I think there won’t be a lot of value on the board at post time.

#8 Dreamalina (10/1 on my line) worked OK with an adjusted 4 furlong trial time of 49 and 3/5 while easily winning her trial.  Comes from the first Australian crop by Dream Ahead, who was a sprinting superstar in England and did well with his first crop in Europe over the summer and fall of 2015.  This one trialled 5 furlongs and might be a great horse to put UNDER the top two in exactas and trifectas, as I expect she will be closing late.


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