Friday Night Australian Racing 3/4/2016

Race 1A (Randwick) 6 furlongs, 2yo Fillies Group 2, 8:20 PM EST

Going to give #2 CALLIOPE (3/1 ML) another chance.  Her speed figures and sectional times are better than the favorite’s and the Sydney based O’Shea/Goldolphin machine has been nearly invincible this season.  Plus I like Calliope getting back to Randwick (Sydney), where she broke her maiden in a stakes race, earning a huge number.  Randwick has much bigger turns than Caulfield.

 

Race 2A (Randwick) 6 furlongs, 2yo colts Group 2, 9:00 PM EST

#1 CAPITALIST (estimated 4/5 at post time) is the top 3yo colt in Sydney for sure, and is right there with Extreme Choice, who won the $1,000,000 Blue Diamond at Caulfield last week.  I think this is a really exciting, undefeated and untested horse.

 

Race 4A (Randwick) 1 mile, 3up Fillies & Mares, Group 3, 10:10 PM EST

There is a saying in Australia:  “Back mares in form.”  In other words, stay with the mares on a hot streak.  #1 ALL CERISE (5/1 ML) has won her last four races, and because she is slightly going up in class she doesn’t have to pick up any weight off her last two wins.  She drew well in post 5 and Sydney’s best jockey, Hugh Bowman rides for top trainer Chris Waller.

 

Race 4B (Flemington) 13 furlongs, Open, Listed (Purse AUD $120,000), 10:30 PM EST

#1 Signoff (5/2 estimated post time odds) is just better than these.  He’s giving at least eight pounds to all of his competitors, but he’s also dropping weight with a small class drop, from 135 pounds to 132 pounds, the weight he carried two races back.  Much respect with top Melbourne trainer Darren Weir calling the shots, especially in a long distance race.

 

Race 5A (Randwick), Canterbury Stakes, 6.5 furlongs, Group 1, 10:50 PM

Chris Waller is not known for having many of of his stable stars fire first off the layoff (“first up”), but #2 KEMADEC (estimated odds of 5/1 at post) has had two barrier trials AND a racetrack gallop between races recently, which tells me Waller is pretty serious.  The $2.6 million dollar earner can crush these if ready.

 

Race 6B (Flemington) Open Listed Stakes, 5 furlongs (straight course), 11:50 PM EST

#4 Headwater (7/2 ML) last year at this time was considered the favorite for the AUD $3.5 Million Golden Slipper.  That did not go well but he has two wins at this distance and drew well in barrier 10 (closer to the stands).  He gets nine pounds in weight from a decent older mare (#1 Lumosty) who is reported to be fit for her first race off the layoff but has had a less than brilliant career.

 

Race 7A (Randwick) Randwick Guineas, One Mile, 12:10 AM EST Saturday

#1 Press Statement (estimated odds 3/5 at post) is one of the three best horses in Australia.  He dominates his own age group.

 

Race 8A (Flemington) Australian Guineas, One Mile, 12:30 AM EST Saturday Picks 5-2

#5 Xtravagant (estimated odds of 2/1 at post time) is putting up races in New Zealand that would absolutely crush this bunch.  The downside is sometimes he can have “bad days” where he sweats up and fights the rider during the warm up, leading to less energy at race time.  He will be the favorite tonight so try to get a view or two of him before the race prior to wagering.  #2 Tarzino (7/1 ML) loves Flemington and he will prosper running down Flemington’s three furlong-long stretch run in his second race off the layoff.  If the odds on Xtravagant are too short for you, Tarzino is a good second option.

 

 

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