Race 6A (Randwick) – Sat 12:10 AM EDT – Group1 Inglis Sires Produce Stakes – 2 year olds
I LOVE #8 Pasadena Girl in this spot. She has been stuck behind slow paces in her last two and still won. Can run a career top here if the pace is genuine. #1 Pride of Dubai is the opposite – a horse that comes from way out of it but has been chasing FAST paces – figures to regress today is the pace is more in the 36 second range for the first three furlongs – vulnerable favorite. #7 English ran great in the Golden Slipper but that was for the big money – much smaller purse here ($3.5 Mill vs. 1.0 mill) and her trainer has flopped in the past with horses that ran well in the Slipper then come right back in this race – another vulnerable favorite.
Race 7A (Randwick) – Sat 12:50 AM EDT – Group1 BMW Australian Derby – 3 year olds
#1 Preferment should not have lost last time and one thing about trainer Chris Waller, his horses always improve through the Fall Carnival. #2 Volkstok’n’barrel got a very aggressive ride from jockey Craig Williams to beat the top choice by a head last time. Worthy adversary. The others look outgunned.
Race 8A (Randwick) – Sat 1:30 AM EDT – Group1 Darley TJ Smith – 3 and up (Best Bet)
#2 Terravista ran great off a layoff of several months and it was always the plan to win this race second off the layoff. Marginal improvement wins this race. #10 Sweet Idea is ready to roll and gets the “best jockey in the World,” a.k.a. Joao “Magic Man” Moreira, to ride. Chance to upset. #1 Lankan Rupee was my pick for the Newmarket Handicap and to say he was dull would an understatement. In the Newmarket they tried to rate him and the pace was slow. The ‘Rupee will be on the lead in this race. #8 Rain Affair loves a soft track and Sydney is supposed to get a fair amount of rain. Shot for trifecta/super players.
Race 9A (Randwick) – Sat 2:10 AM EDT – Group1 Doncaster – 3 and up (Best Bet)
#4 Real Impact was brought over from Japan to win this race and the huge winner’s share of the purse. He’s second off the layoff and is ridden by Australia’s hottest jockey, James McDonald. The 9/1 Morning Line is a joke – he’ll be the 5/1 second choice in a 20 horse field. #10 Hallowed Crown is best from 7 furlongs to One mile and he’s very lightly weighted. Big chance to win this for Australia. #2 Happy Trails is hard to predict, but many times he has hit the board at FAT ODDS. Consider using him at a big number. #21 Sweynesse is just about as good as Hallowed Crown – use him at the right odds if he can draw into the race from the “Also Eligible” list.