Friday Night Australian Racing – Oct. 11th, 2014

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Race 4A (Caulfield) – Grade 2 – 5 furlongs – 11:45 PM EDT Fri

“Weight For Age” (we call this ‘allowance conditions’ in North America)

Going to get greedy here and go with talented closer #2 ICONIC (10/1 ML).  While this horse comes from well back, his 5 furlong record is excellent:  6-3-2-0.  He is in good form and looks to be the best closer in a field LOADED with early speed.  Admittedly light on speed figures, he will need everything to go his way, but the odds will be right.

#4 Overreach (now a 4yo) and #7 Rubick (now a 3yo) were talented two year old sprinters who are on the comeback trail.  Make them beat you at short odds.

Race 6A (Caulfield) – Group 1 “Weight For Age” – 10 furlongs – 12:55 AM EDT Sat

This race is basically a preview of the $3 Million, 10 furlong “W.S. Cox Plate” at Moonee Valley, a race that serves the same role in Australia as the Breeders’ Cup Classic serves in the USA: to determine championship honors.  Today’s prep race at Caulfield (with a $352,000 purse) is loaded with talent, with Sacred Falls coming from Sydney to face the best Melbourne runners.

I am going to give #10 Dissident (5/1 ML) a big chance here.  He has had a very aggressive campaign, and of this season Dissident has the top speed figures, including beating ML Fave Faulkner in the process a few weeks ago.  Good Aussie horses thrive on racing and the horse should be DEAD FIT.

#3 Fawkner (5/2) is the main danger but he has not raced in 4 weeks.  In North America that is the norm but in Australia it means the horse has issues OR his connections are totally aiming for the Cox Plate, hoping he “improves from the run” to be “spot on” in the Cox Plate.  Either way there may be chinks in the armor.

#1 Sacred Falls (5/1 ML) is a beast in Sydney but he may find Caulfield to his liking, and Sydney shippers do well in Melbourne.  $4.1 Million career earner is very dangerous here for the Chris Waller team.

#5 Foreteller (5/1 ML) is typically a deep closer but last time was closer to the pace early and was rewarded with a win.  Probably would be well served to stay in touch with the field early.

 

 

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