Friday night, Dec. 6th – Doveton Stakes – Race 5B Caufield (Melbourne, Australia)

Here is the spreadsheet I worked up for the Doveton Stakes, a 5 furlong (1000 meters), open company $100,000 stakes at Caufield for tonight (Race 5B):

Australia – Race 5B (Caufield)
Doveton Stakes (5 furlongs, US$110,000)
Dec. 6th (USA Time) – 11:30 PM EST
Tony Kelzenberg for BetPTC.com
Betting Est. Peak Fair
Number Horse Post Run Style Effort Pattern/Form Effort Odds
7 Sumakaray 2 Midpack Classes up well vs. these and speed numbers say she is the one to beat. 50.0  2/1
4 Loveyamadly 5 Presser Red-hot barn has her ready for best.  Trainer has been very high on this mare. 47.0  7/2
2 Vatican 6 Presser In form.  Likes to get in the exacta.  Career 33-7-9-4. 47.0  7/2
5 Rescue Mission (NZ) 4 Speed July-Aug prep sequence was a nightmare.  Mildly competitive on best form. 45.0  13/2
3 Zedi Knight 7 Presser 9yo has lost a step but gets gets top speed rider. 43.0 20/1
10 Vicario 1 Midpack 3-2-0-1 at five furlongs.  Needs to run faster. 43.0  20/1
6 Undeniably 9 Speed Never got involved at Flemington.  Has a much better chance here. 42.0
8 Flash of Doubt 3 Deep Closer Likes the 5f distance but is 5-0-0-1 in her last 5 starts.  Improvement needed. 42.0
9 Halle Rocks 10 Midpack 5 wins at 12 furlongs!  Needs to go faster. 42.0

I really think this is a two horse race between #7 Sumakaray and #4 Loveyamadly.  Sumakaray is a very talented horse, but the general consensus is Lovayamadly is better.  However, Sumakaray is sharp right now and her speed figures are slightly better than Loveyamadly’s numbers.  Also, Loveyamadly is coming off a very long layoff and is giving Sumakaray 10 pounds.  Since Loveyamadly figures to be 2/1 and Sumakaray will be around 6/1, Sumakaray appears to be the value in the race.

Suggested plays:  #7 Sumakaray to win at 3/1 or better.  Play the $2 7-4 exacta at $25 or better and the $2 4-7 exacta at $18 or better.

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