Friday night, Race 4A Australia (Caulfield)

Caulfield usually favors pressers and midpack closers in sprints, and #13 LONHTIME (post 3), an extremely well-bred filly, catches the eye with her excellent race record of 3-2-1-0 and pressing running style, but also her pedigree is enticing, being by top sire Lonhro out of a mare by top broodmare sire (and Breeders’ Cup Mile winner) Last Tycoon.  While it is true that she has been running at lower class tracks, that is typical for her trainer, Peter Moody, who allows his stock to fatten up on provincial racing before coming to Melbourne.  I like that she has already won at 5.5 furlongs, so she should have plenty of speed for today’s 6 furlong race.  The morning line is giving us no favors at 3/1, but a lot of the opposition appear to be overraced and underperforming.

#8 SPENDING had a poor comeback race down the Flemington straight, but she has run in many high class races and may still have upside, especially in the exotics.

#1 LADY OF HARRODS does not offer much value but has a good jock and 3 Caulfield wins.

 

WAGERING PLAN

TWO UNITS to win on #13 at 4/1 or better.  ONE UNIT to win on #8 at 10/1 or better.

TWO UNITS EXACTA #13 with #8….ONE UNIT EXACTA #8 with #13….

ONE UNIT TRI BOX #1,#8,#13

 

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