Go for it or not to go for it?

My first two blogs over the last two weeks have talked about preparing for betting, now today’s is all about taking advantage of the prep.

You have watched the replays, you have scanned/capped the race card. At this point you should have a good feeling of the races to take a shot at or pass. One other thing to check would be are there any carry overs and what type of carry overs. Understand the difference between a good carry over and a jackpot carry over. A good carry over is it will be paid out that day.

My recommendation if it is a good carry over, start there with those races. Dead money always is in favor of the horse player, don’t miss out, but make sure you like the sequence.

Next step start with your strongest races you like, maybe a replay horse or a race with very few unknows and then build around that race. If I am playing sequence bets I need to have at least half of the races I like quite a bit. This doesn’t mean I have keys in every race, but does mean I have the max horses in the race I need.

If the bookends of your strongest race are terrible, it might just be an individual race bet. If the carry over is big enough in the sequence, I will take a small chance and play the sequence.

What makes a strong play?
Here are a few key points I look for:
-Understanding race shape
-A good replay that others might have missed
-Vulnerable favorite that you think will get beat, but the public doesn’t and over bets it
-Very few unknowns in the race, firsters for example

Always try and find that value, whether it is there because of a carry over, vulnerable favorite or your horse is paying higher than you thought.

Good luck and good racing.

Next Post Breeders Cup Week

 

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