Handicapping Insights – Australia, September 13, 2013

September 13th (USA) HE = dedicated front runner Mid = Midpack
Race 1A Moonee Valley ($80,000), 6.0 furlongs E = speed horse BM = Back marker/deep closer
NL = near lead
Betting Weight Run Effort Est. Peak
Number Horse Post (lbs.) Style Pattern Effort Spread Fraction Fair odds Notes
3 Za Moulin Rouge 4 123 Mid same, 2nd up 41.0 16.0 0.188 4 Well bred, big drop, nice barrier
6 Godiva Rock 8 121 Mid 2nd up, mdn 39.0 14.0 0.165 5 Loses Rodd, gets Williams
11 Solicit 3 121 Mid 2nd up, winner 37.0 12.0 0.141 6
2 May’s Dream 11 125 BM improving 36.0 11.0 0.129 7
7 Imanana 10 121 Mid 3rd up, mdn 35.0 10.0 0.118 8
10 So Bella Arella 5 121 Mid 1st up, mdn 32.0 7.0 0.082 11 Potential overlay
9 Mount Zero 9 121 NL 4th up, winner 31.0 6.0 0.071 13
8 Longchamp Belle 7 121 HE 4th up, winner 30.0 5.0 0.059 16
4 Antarctic Missile 6 121 Mid 2nd up, mdn 29.0 4.0 0.047 20 Potential overlay
1 I’m Too Sexy 2 127 E off form 25.0 0.0 0.000 40
5 Aurora Miss 1 121 Mid 2nd up, mdn 25.0 0.0 0.000 40
Race 5A Moonee Valley ($188,000), 5.0 furlongs
Betting Weight Run Effort Est. Peak
Number Horse Post (lbs.) Style Pattern Effort Spread Fraction Fair odds Notes
1 Moment of Change 1 129 E 1st up 58.0 27.0 0.189 4
8 Platelet 3 125 Mid 1st up 52.0 21.0 0.147 6
2 General Truce 8 129 Mid 2nd up 50.0 19.0 0.133 7 Possible overlay
4 Snitzem 2 129 E 1st up 50.0 19.0 0.133 7 Possible overlay
3 Freereturn 4 129 Mid 1st up 46.0 15.0 0.105 9 Possible overlay
10 Kuroshio 9 115 HE 2nd up 44.0 13.0 0.091 10 Well weighted
9 Umgeton 6 125 Mid 1st up 43.0 12.0 0.084 11
5 Shafeeq 7 129 HE 4th up 40.0 9.0 0.063 15
6 Run Diego 10 129 Mid 4th up, declining 39.0 8.0 0.056 17
7 Glamour Planet 5 129 HE 4th up 31.0 0.0 0.000 30
Race 6C Rosehill ($188,000), 6.0 furlongs
Betting Weight Run Effort Est. Peak
Number Horse Post (lbs.) Style Pattern Effort Spread Fraction Fair odds Notes
2 Ichihara 2 128 E/Mid 2nd up 52.0 8.0 0.145 6 Well spotted
9 Arctic Flight 8 123 E 1st up, one trial 51.0 7.0 0.127 7 Possible overlay
8 Fire Up Fifi 12 125 E 1st up, one trial 50.0 6.0 0.109 8 Possible overlay
1 Appearance 10 131 Mid 1st up, two trials 49.0 5.0 0.091 10
6 Fillydelphia 4 126 Mid/BM 1st up, one trial 49.0 5.0 0.091 10 Possible overlay
7 Dystopia 14 125 Mid/BM 1st up, two trials 49.0 5.0 0.091 10
11 Honey Flower 11 123 BM No offical trials 48.0 4.0 0.073 13 Possible overlay
3 Bennetta 1 128 Mid 1st up, two trials 47.0 3.0 0.055 17
4 Flying Snitzel 4 128 Mid 1st up, one trial 47.0 3.0 0.055 17
5 Driefontein 5 126 Mid 1st up, one trial 47.0 3.0 0.055 17
12 Peron 5 123 Mid 1st up, one trial 47.0 3.0 0.055 17 6 for 8 wins
10 Aerobatics 13 123 E/Mid 1st up, one trial 46.0 2.0 0.036 27
13 Brave Soul 3 121 Mid 2nd up 45.0 1.0 0.018 54
14 Just A Girl 9 121 E 4th up 44.0 0.0 0.000 60
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