Handicapping Insights – Australian Racing, Friday night Sept. 20

September 20th E = Early speed
Race 1A Caufield ($86,000), 7.0 furlongs P = Press pace
Mid = Midfield
DC = Deep Closer
Betting Weight Run Est. Peak
Number Horse Post (lbs.) Style Effort Pattern/Form Effort Spread Fraction Fair odds Notes
11 Baluch 4 119 DC Great comeback 49.0 9.0 0.200 4 Potential Overlay
4 Twilighting 9 121 DC No significant improvement 46.0 6.0 0.133 7
6 Minnie Downs 7 119 Mid First up off layoff 46.0 6.0 0.133 7
2 Classy Chloe 12 125 E Second up, dip 45.0 5.0 0.111 8
3 Bec Said No Credit 6 122 Mid Peak, 3 wins in a row 45.0 5.0 0.111 8 Likely Heavy Underlay
8 Dartook 8 119 P Sneaky good comeback 45.0 5.0 0.111 8 Potential Overlay
1 Goldslick 1 128 DC First up off layoff 44.0 4.0 0.089 10
5 Rose Pattern 5 119 E Front runner, slight improvement 43.0 3.0 0.067 14
9 Rahveel 3 119 Mid First up off layoff 42.0 2.0 0.044 22 Potential Overlay
7 Zoomania 2 119 Mid Third up, dip 40.0 0.0 0.000 30
10 Mybenz 10 119 DC Third up, dip 40.0 0.0 0.000 40
12 Godspiel 11 119 DC Can improve 2nd up 40.0 0.0 0.000 40 Potential Overlay
September 20th E = Early speed
Race 2A Caufield ($86,000), 5.5 furlongs P = Press pace
Mid = Midfield
DC = Deep Closer
Betting Weight Run Est. Peak
Number Horse Post (lbs.) Style Effort Pattern/Form Effort Spread Fraction Fair odds Notes
3 The Peak 5 123 E/P Hong Kong class.  Gets in light. 53.0 11.0 0.155 5 Potential Overlay
7 Shamal Wind 2 119 Mid First up, good numbers. 53.0 11.0 0.155 5
5 Anise 3 119 DC Second up 52.0 10.0 0.141 6
6 Royal Bender 4 119 Mid Dip, bounce back?  Jock upgrade. 52.0 10.0 0.141 6
1 Go The Knuckle 11 128 Mid First up off the layoff 49.0 7.0 0.099 9
9 Cavallo Nero 8 119 Mid Loves to hit the top three. 48.0 6.0 0.085 11
10 Nicholls Court 10 119 P On the improve. 46.0 4.0 0.056 17 Potential Overlay
4 Canali 7 120 P Off form 45.0 3.0 0.042 23
8 Bocuse 12 119 DC First up 45.0 3.0 0.042 23 Potential Overlay
11 Falcent 13 119 E/P Fresh 45.0 3.0 0.042 23
2 Undeniably 6 127 P Second up, back numbers 44.0 2.0 0.028 35
13 Our Nkwazi 9 119 Mid Dip, jock uprade 43.0 1.0 0.014 70
12 Smackdown (NZ) 1 119 P Loves to hit the top three. 42.0 0.0 0.000 80
September 20th E = Early speed
Race 3A Caufield ($86,000), 5.0 furlongs P = Press pace
Mid = Midfield
DC = Deep Closer
Betting Weight Run Est. Peak
Number Horse Post (lbs.) Style Effort Pattern/Form Effort Spread Fraction Fair odds Notes
4 Villa Verde 13 123 Mid Dip, back numbers 47.0 15.0 0.158 5
2 Whiskey Allround 7 126 P Second up 45.0 13.0 0.137 6 Potential Overlay
5 Il Cavallo 9 123 P Dip, back numbers 44.0 12.0 0.126 7
10 Moparee 11 119 Hard E First up.  Very quick – Uncopled entry 41.0 9.0 0.095 10
12 Menage A Charge 3 119 P First up – Uncoupled entry 41.0 9.0 0.095 10 Potential Overlay
1 Iconic 12 129 E/P First up 40.0 8.0 0.084 11
11 Mezeray Miss 4 119 E Second up 39.0 7.0 0.074 13
3 Clevadude 8 126 Hard E Vet’s list.  Faced tougher. 38.0 6.0 0.063 15
6 The Bronx 5 123 P Errattic 36.0 4.0 0.042 23
7 Impulsive Spirit 6 123 Hard E Probably improves. 36.0 4.0 0.042 23
8 Kievann 2 123 P First up 36.0 4.0 0.042 23
13 Register 1 119 P Consistent 36.0 4.0 0.042 23
9 Classy Jack 10 123 ??? Facing winners, big barrier trial win. 32.0 0.0 0.000 50
September 20th E = Early speed
Race 5A Caufield ($160,000), 5.0 furlongs P = Press pace
Mid = Midfield
DC = Deep Closer
Betting Weight Run Est. Peak
Number Horse Post (lbs.) Style Effort Pattern/Form Effort Spread Fraction Fair odds Notes
2 Catkins 12 128 E/P Third up 52.0 12.0 0.160 5
3 Octavia 1 128 E/P Heavily raced.  8-5-2-0 at 6f 50.0 10.0 0.133 7
6 A Time For Julia 9 126 Mid May be better at 6f.  Likes Caufield. 50.0 10.0 0.133 7
7 Hazard 7 123 P Consistent – 5 for 10 wins lifetime. 49.0 9.0 0.120 7 Potential Overlay
8 Our Miss Jones 4 121 DC Low percentage: 7-1-3-2 lifetime. 47.0 7.0 0.093 10
10 Anabaa’s Legacy (NZ) 2 121 E Second up.  Competitive in here. 47.0 7.0 0.093 10 Potential Overlay
5 Jolie Blonde 5 126 Mid Way off form 46.0 6.0 0.080 12
1 Hi Belle 6 128 DC First up 45.0 5.0 0.067 14
11 Perfectly Stunning (NZ) 8 121 DC Second up, seems outclassed. 44.0 4.0 0.053 18
12 Balaclava Lady 11 121 Mid Second up, seems outclassed. 44.0 4.0 0.053 18
4 Lake Sententia 10 128 Mid Deep closer aiming for routes/fitness. 41.0 1.0 0.013 74
9 Flash of Doubt 3 121 Mid Seems outclassed. 40.0 0.0 0.000 100
September 20th E = Early speed
Race 6A Caufield ($86,000), 7.0 furlongs P = Press pace
Mid = Midfield
DC = Deep Closer
Betting Weight Run Est. Peak
Number Horse Post (lbs.) Style Effort Pattern/Form Effort Spread Fraction Fair odds Notes
6 British General 8 125 E/P Set up for this race.  Don’t ignore. 54.0 14.0 0.096 9
5 Shoreham 2 128 Mid Second up and sharp!! 3-2-0-1 at 7 furlongs. 53.0 13.0 0.089 10
4 Whisper Downs 4 129 Route/DC Closed very well at Flemington. 52.0 12.0 0.082 11
15 Rhythm To Spare (NZ) 15 119 Mid Second up.  Lightly raced up and comer. 7-3-3-0 51.0 11.0 0.075 12
12 Soledad 10 119 P Heavily raced 50.0 10.0 0.068 14
7 Boys On Tour 1 123 DC Closed very well at Flemington. 50.0 10.0 0.068 14
2 Startsmeup 16 130 DC Second up 49.0 9.0 0.062 15
10 Meliora 5 119 Hard E Ran against closer bias at Flemington 49.0 9.0 0.062 15
1 Precedence (NZ) 17 132 Route Looking for fitneess 48.0 8.0 0.055 17
8 Future Solution 11 121 Mid Gets his best distance today:  10-2-3-3 48.0 8.0 0.055 17
3 Mouro 3 129 Mid First up, well spotted. 47.0 7.0 0.048 20
11 Brian’s Honour 13 119 E/P Heavily raced 47.0 7.0 0.048 20
14 Don’t Get Excited 12 119 P Heavily raced 47.0 7.0 0.048 20
13 Out of Coober 14 119 Mid Heavily raced 46.0 6.0 0.041 23
9 Veewap 7 120 DC Heavily raced 45.0 5.0 0.034 28
16 AE Richie’s Vibe 6 119 Mid Second up.  Lightly raced up and comer. 4-3-0-0 45.0 5.0 0.034 28
17 AE Electric Fusion 9 119 DC First up 45.0 5.0 0.034 28
18 AE Taxi Joe 18 119 Mid First up 40.0 0.0 0.000 75
September 20th E = Early speed
Race 7A Caufield ($187,000), 7.0 furlongs P = Press pace
Guiness Prelude Mid = Midfield
DC = Deep Closer
Betting Weight Run Est. Peak
Number Horse Post (lbs.) Style Effort Pattern/Form Effort Spread Fraction Fair odds Notes
1 Montsegur 11 126 Mid Third up.  Big improver and huge jock switch. 46.0 24.0 0.117 8
2 Kiss A Rose 1 125 DC Third up on first prep. 46.0 24.0 0.117 8
6 Gregers 2 123 E Might be topping out.  Z-pattern.  Speed of the speed. 46.0 24.0 0.117 8
4 The Huntress 4 125 P Second up on second prep. 45.0 23.0 0.112 8 Potential Overlay
10 Se Sauver 8 121 Mid Fourth up on second prep. 42.0 20.0 0.097 9
7 Miracle To Me 4 121 Mid Not overly talented. 40.0 18.0 0.087 10
9 Politeness 7 121 Mid Third up on second prep. 40.0 18.0 0.087 10
8 Mariane 6 121 E Third up on second prep. 37.0 15.0 0.073 13
5 Vivi Veloce 5 125 Mid Could be off form. 36.0 14.0 0.068 14
3 Lady Lakshmi 5 125 P Second up on second prep. 35.0 13.0 0.063 15
11 Judicial Rock 3 121 Mid Third up on second prep. 35.0 13.0 0.063 15 Potential Overlay
12 Flametree Of Thika 9 121 Mid Third up on first prep. 22.0 0.0 0.000 50
September 20th E = Early speed
Race 9A Caufield ($428,000), 9.0 furlongs P = Press pace
Hyland Underwood Stakes (Group 1) Mid = Midfield
DC = Deep Closer
Betting Weight Run Est. Peak
Number Horse Post (lbs.) Style Effort Pattern/Form Effort Spread Fraction Fair odds Notes
12 Atlantic Jewel 7 126 P Toyed with fillies, but these are much better opposition. 60.0 11.0 0.137 6
4 Foreteller (GB) 11 130 DC Third up, flew home in last. 58.0 9.0 0.112 8
8 Puissance De Lune (IRE) 14 130 Mid Hugely talented.  Unlucky to lose its last. 57.5 8.5 0.106 8
11 It’s a Dundeel (NZ) 12 128 Mid Jockey screwed up in his last. 57.0 8.0 0.099 9
1 Green Moon (IRE) 10 130 Mid Second up, much better distance. 56.0 7.0 0.087 11
5 Happy Trails 4 130 Mid Third up. 55.0 6.0 0.075 12
6 Eithiopia 1 130 Mid Second up, better distance. 55.0 6.0 0.075 12
2 Manighar (FR) 3 130 P Second up, better distance. 54.0 5.0 0.062 15
3 Mr. Moet 13 130 DC Second up 54.0 5.0 0.062 15
7 Sea Moon (GB) 5 130 Mid Tripped badly at the start. 54.0 5.0 0.062 15
9 Waldpark (GER) 9 130 Mid Second up, but lacks winning form. 53.0 4.0 0.050 19
13 Silent Achiever (NZ) 8 126 DC Second up 52.0 3.0 0.037 26
14 Dear Demi 6 123 DC Decent comeback at Flemington. 52.0 3.0 0.037 26
10 My Quest For Peace (IRE) 2 130 DC Yet to hit the board in Aussie. 49.0 0.0 0.000 50
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