Happy 2013 Caulfield Cup Day!

In Australia they have four major grass races, all with purses over $2.5 Million: The Melbourne Cup (a handicap with a purse over $6 Million), the Cox Plate (by invitation only, “weight for age,” purse over $3 Million), the Caulfield Cup (a handicap with a purse worth $2.5 million), and the Golden Slipper, a six furlong race limited to two year olds having a purse of $3.8 million.  Friday night, the Caulfield Cup is to be run over a mile and a half (2400 meters), and this is the official start of the big Spring races, with the Cox Plate to be run on Oct. 25th (US Time) and the Melbourne Cup on Nov. 4th (US Time).

Caulfield is a track that has a small rise entering the far turn, and in general favors closers the most of Melbourne’s four area racetracks, so often it is a good idea to bet on mid-pack horses.  In this year’s Caulfield Cup, the racing ability of horses is very close, with no one having an obvious edge.  The “time experts” prefer Jet Away, but are concerned with his stamina over the full 2400m trip.  In a race lacking much pace, early pace factors Julienas and Fawkner might be able to see the race out.  Hawkspur and Silent Achiever are the best closers, but it looks like they might get too far back off what most certainly will be a slow pace.

Here are my picks:

1st) Jet Away  2nd) Fawkner  3rd) Julienas  4th) Hawkspur

Ratings for 2013 Caufield Cup
Betting Est. Peak Fair
Number Horse Post Effort Pattern/Form Effort Odds
12 Hawkspur 16 Best closer in the race 61.5  3/1
8 Jet Away 13 Improving, wants softer ground 61.0  4/1
7 Fawkner 12 Consistent 60.0  8/1
10 Moriarty 18 Razor sharp 60.0  8/1
13 Julienas 15 Loose speed 60.0  8/1
15 Silent Achiever 5 Good post draw 60.0  8/1
18 Dear Demi 22 Widest of all 60.0  8/1
2 Dandino 19 Dip 58.0 15/1


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