Horse Racing Analysis – Churchill Downs May 16th

Horse Racing Analysis / Churchill Downs / 5-16-2020

by: Ed Meyer


Churchill Downs – Opening Day – Late Pick Four

Race #4 – O.C. $80,000 – 1 mile – 2:32 pm EDT Selections / #2 – Monomoy Girl / #7 – Lady Kate / #1 – MIss Bigly

#2 Monomoy Girl hails from the Brad Cox barn with Florent Geroux in the irons. She is 4 for 4 ITM at CD and been off for a year since winning the BC Distaff. She sports sharp works and the rider and trainer team up to win 28%. She is a perfect stalker and the barn scores 27% with long layoffs. She is 2 for 2 at the distance and loves CD. Look for a big coming out party! #7 Lady Kate comes in from the Eddie Kenneally barn with Jose Ortiz in the saddle. She’s been off two months and should be right off the pace. Add in she was a beaten favorite last out and the barn scores at a 28% win clip looking for payback. #1 Miss Bigly for Michelle Lovell with B.J. Hernandez in the driver’s seat. She is 2 for 2 ITM at CD, and 2 for 2 with wins at the distance. Been on the shelf for 2 months and ships in from FG. Her mid pack style may be effective today.

Late Pick Four

Race #8 – Alw $81,000 – 1 mile on the turf – 4:40 pm EDT Selections / #4 – Tankerville / #6 – Labeq / #1 – Bama Breeze

#4 Tankerville is a son of Kitten’s Joy for Bill Mott with John Velasquez getting the nod. First time Lasix shipping in from Ireland, and her dam Starformer has 2 starters, 2 winners, 2 turf winners to her credit. Johnny V is 34% ITM with turf runners and must be respected coming from the Mott barn. #6 Labeq is a son of Tapit for Mike Maker and Joe Talamo in the saddle. He’s a deep closer and enjoys turf with plenty of cut in the ground. He’s been off 7 months and bred to enjoy the greensward. He’s coming over from the Kiaran McLaughlin barn as he retired from training. Maker does well with new runners winning at a 15% clip. #1 Bama Breeze is a closer from the Rusty Arnold barn with Julien Leproux in the irons. He won at first asking eight months ago, and the barn wins 18% with allowance runners. He is bred to enjoy the sod.

Race #9 – Claiming $50,000 N2L – 7f – 5:12 pm EDT Selections / #1 – Patrol / #12 – Admire / #2 – Adhhar

#1 Patrol hails from the Mark Casse barn with B.J. Hernandez getting the call. 2nd time off the layoff where they win 18% and drop down in class with sharp morning works. They are shipping in from GP and draw the rail post today. He’s a major danger at a square price. #12 Admire is a son of Cairo Prince for Dale Romans and Ricardo Santana. A stalker shipping in from GP making a drop down the class ladder. He has faced much tougher in the past and goes from a route to a sprint where the barn wins 19%. #2 Adhhar comes in for Thom Amoss and Joe Talamo getting the nod. They win 21% when they team up, and making the 2nd off the claim move yields a 39% win clip. His 3rd place finish last out was a good building block moving forward for this late runner.

Race #10 – O.C. $75,000 – 7f – 5:44 pm EDT Selections / #2 – Portrait / #8 – Four Games / #11 – Aurelia Garland

#2 Portrait is a daughter of Tapizar for Brad Cox and Javier Castellano in the irons. She’s been off for 3 months and shipping in from FG. She was a beaten favorite last out and sports some sharp works coming in the day. Brad Cox wins 30% with a beaten favorite coming back to win. #8 Four Games hails from the barn of Ian Wilkes and Julien Leparoux getting the nod. Goes from a sprint to a route and wins 17% on this angle. She’s a speedy gal and should be on or near the front. Ships in from GP as a beaten favorite cutting back to a sprint. #11 Aurelia Garland is a daughter of Constitution winning at first asking at Belmont a year ago. She has been working lights out at Palm Meadows for Rudy Brisset and Jose Ortiz in the irons. If she’s ready, her early foot will be dangerous on the lead.

Race #11 – Allowance – 5 1/2f on the turf – 6:16 pm EDT Selections / #4 – Karak / #8 – Fashionable Lady / #9 – Bredenbury

#4 Karak hails from the Wesley Ward barn with Gerardo Corrales in the saddle. Impressive winner at TP in the Cincinnati Trophy coming off a three month layoff. I like the poly to turf switch and Wesley Ward is sharp at spotting his runners in the perfect race. #8 Fashionable Lady is a daughter of Declaration of War from the barn of Michael Ewing and Florent Geroux. An off the pace filly getting first Lasix. She’s been off 11 months and owns a won a win over the track with a medication change. Dangerous runner at a price. #9 Bredenbury comes from the Graham Motion barn with John Velasquez in the driver’s seat. Been off for three months and cuts back to a sprint. The rider switch is a plus and shipping in from Tampa may be a nice change of scenery.

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