Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis – 9/5/2020 – Kentucky Derby
by: Ed Meyer
Churchill Downs – Derby Day
Race #8 – The G-2 American Turf – 1 1/16 on the turf – 2:55 pm
BetPTC.com Selections / #5 – Smooth Like Strait / #4 – Field Pass / #3 – Sugoi
#5 Smooth Like Strait is a speedy son of Midnight Lute for Mike McCarthy and John Velasquez. This is his 2nd off the layoff where the barn wins 18%. Versatile sort who can grab the lead or lay just off. He is 1 for 1 at CD and the same at the distance. Major player today. #4 Field Pass is a closing sort shipping in from Saratoga. Mike Maker is winning 17% with his grass starts and has Tyler Gaffalione in the saddle is winning 26% with Maker. He is 3 for 3 ITM at CD and has a nice late punch. #3 Sugoi is a mid pack stalker for Mike Tomlinson and Joe Rocco Jr. He was claimed off a tough 2nd place finish at CD and looks to be a solid fit in the race.
Race #9 – The G-2 Pat Day Mile – 1 mile – 3:35 pm
BetPTC.com Selections / #1 – Cezanne / #2 – Echo Town / #9 – Rushie
#1 Cezanne is a son of Curlin for Bob Baffert and Florent Geroux. He’s cutting back from 8.5 furlongs and should relish the distance of the one turn mile. Look for an alert break keeping an eye on the pace to see when to push the button. #2 Echo Town hails from the Steve Asmussen barn with Ricardo Santana in the irons. A perfect stalker who may have the perfect style going the one turn mile. #9 Rushie enters for Mike McCarthy and Javier Castellano. He’s been off for 56 days since the G2 Bluegrass. His late run is solid, and Castellano wins 21% with late runners.
Race #10 – The G-3 Iroquois – 1 mile – 4:07 pm
BetPTC.com Selections / #10 – Therideofalifetime / #3 – Super Stock / #7 – Pico d’ Oro
#10 Therideofalifetime is a son of Candy Ride for Ignacio Correas IV with Florent Geroux in the saddle. He’s a speedy sort who should break close to the action from the start. Going a one turn mile may fit his wheelhouse and let him grab the lead with a rider who scores 19% with up close runners. #3 Super Stock is a son of Dialed In for Steve Asmussen and Ricardo Santana. He exits the Texas Futurity off a solid win and picks up Asmussen’s go to rider Santana. He’ll be up close as he gets the acid test today moving up the ladder. #7 Pico d’ Oro is a son of Curlin for William Morey and Javier Castellano. He has a nice late run and should relish the one turn mile. He moves up in class and sports a bullet work to prepare for the journey.
Race #11 – The G-2 Longines Churchill Distaff – 1 mile on the turf – 4:39 pm
BetPTC.com Selections / #4 Newspaperofrecord / #6 – Beau Recall /#2 – Daddy Is a Legend
#4 Newspaperofrecord hails from the Chad Brown barn with Javier Castellano in the irons. She is 2 for 2 ITM and 7 for 8 ITM on the turf. She has been off for two months and will come out quick from the gate break. Castellano wins 26% teaming up with Chad Brown. #6 Beau Recall is a closer for Brad Cox and Manny Franco in the irons. She is 8 for 10 ITM at the distance and ran second to the favorite back in the G1 Just a Game. If the pace is solid she’ll make her run around the final turn. #2 Daddy is a Legend comes in for Rusty Arnold and Florent Geroux in the saddle. This is her 2nd start of the year and looks to be getting ready for a fall campaign. A nice late kick with a rider who wins 19% with late runners is promising.
Race #12 – The G-1 Derby City Distaff – 7f – 5:17 pm
BetPTC.com Selections/ #9 – Bellafina / #8 – Serengeti Empress / #10 – Ce Ce
#9 Bellafina is a daughter of Quality Road for Simon Callaghan with Mike Smith in the saddle. 3rd off the layoff and 7 for 7 ITM at the distance. She’s a solid late runner and Smith wins 27% with closers. #8 Serengeti Empress hails from the Thom Amoss barn with Tyler Gaffalione in the saddle. She has quick early foot and will be a pace player from the gate. This is her 3rd off the layoff where Amoss wins 26%. #10 Ce Ce enters for Mike McCarthy and John Velasquez. This daughter of Elusive Quality is a let runner and will be heard from in the final furlong. Don’t leave her out of your exotics.
Race #13 – The G-1 Turf Classic – 1 1/8 on the turf – 5:50 pm
BetPTC.com Selections / #8 – Scared Life / #1 – Factor This / #2 – Bowie’s Hero
#8 Sacred Life is a solid late runner for Chad Brown and Paco Lopez in the irons. Lopez wins 20% with his grass runners and 26% with late running types. I like his chances at a square price in this field. His win at Monmouth was very nice last out as a prep. #1 Factor This has blistering speed and draws the rail for Brad Cox and Shaun Bridgmohan. He is 2 for 3 IT at CD and will jump out and snag the lead. Bridgmohan wins 25% with early runners. #2 Bowie’s Hero hails from the Phil D’Amato barn with Florent Geroux in the irons. 2rd off the layoff and the barn scores at 17% on this move. The rider fits and Geroux wins 20% with closing style runners.
Race #14 – The G-1 Kentucky Derby – 1 1/4 – 7:01 pm
BetPTC.com Selections / #17 – Tiz the Law / #16 – Honor A.P. / #7 – Money Moves
#17 Tiz the Law is a son of Constitution for Barclay Tagg and Manny Franco. He seeks his 5th straight win for Sackatoga Stable. He can jump out and overcome the #17 jinx with his versatile style of running. This is his 2nd off a brief layoff and ships in from the Spa. I’m looking for Franco to send from the outside and grab solid position. If he can be in the top six or seven runners as they past the Twin Spires the first time he’s going to be awfully tough. Look for Franco to keep him out of traffic and grab the lead before they make the turn for home. #16 Honor A.P. hails from the John Shirreff’s barn with Mike Smith in the saddle. A perfect stalker who will be very close to Tiz the Law not letting him out of view. When the real running begins look for Smith to press the chalk and play the role of the spoiler. #7 Money Moves is a son of Candy Ride for Todd Pletcher. Lightly raced and his efforts have all been promising. He was a beaten chalk last out and Pletcher comes back to score at a 26% win clip. This will be an acid test, and having Javier Castellano in the irons is a plus on big races.